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AB is thinly traded. I thought maybe this is a misquote. I did find a different price somewhere else. But on 3 other boards including the pse stock market xchqnge website it confirmed those numbers and obviously has ad on the most active/ returns.
AB doesn't own anything other than Forum from what I know of unless they got into something new. But they are now a more than 1 billion dollar company (US dollars) with 20% of forum stock. Mind blowing. They were over produced before too, or pxp was seriously underpriced. Depends how you look at it.
I always did say we would know because the corrupt ph companies would be doing insider trading on first hand inside i fo, but yeah. Very strange neither pxp or apx did the same.
I don't want to get too pumped up yet but sounds exciting
Pxp is rising again today. If you pull up a one month chart on pxp you will notice an almost full recovery to a 30 day high fro a low valley of under 12. Also notable is the high volume behind it.
In other words the investment community doesn't think pxp is dead and therefore sc72 is also alive and well.
Side note is. Now that Trump and the us navy along with England and France are going to step up the pushback to china, it's not out of the question that Duterte. The infamous flip flopped, who once questioned if the us would protect him in a war with China, may e realizing that he could ask the us navy to protect his economic zone so he can drill sc72 with Shell or chevron. Same guys in Malampaya. The Chinese will realize this and now know that the tide is turning in THAT aspect and will be on the lower hand of demands.
I'm not saying that ph will walk away from a China deal now. But it gives them much better leverage and the upper hand in a game of chess where the advantage keeps changing.
I do believe china is more interested in the strategic points of its islands moreso than the energy resources that come a close second in importance.
Also an interesting statement from Marco Rubio about us potential strategy if you have time to read it. My apology if we or I get way too of topic about specifically sc72 but I do think it's all tied in and affected at some level.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/marco-rubio-us-must-develop-plan-to-destroy-chinese-assets-in-south-china-sea
China's military is convinced they need those islands to surround Taiwan into folding back into china and to get valuable resources for "free" to keep pace with thei 6% growth annually. They must consider if it's worth them losing billions and billions In sales from international partners in this global economy ,so they are trapped in today's world. A catch 22. In today's world its economic warfare that will destroy them faster then war so they need to decide and tread carefully. Look at Venezuela. Iran and North Korea. Hungry!!! They are in ruins despite all that oil for Iran and Venezuela because of sanctions.
China's capabilities are growing though and they shouldn't be underestimated. Rockets can shrink carriers. Hopefully we don't come to blows. Everyone loses. But this show of unity and courage is much needed for display after that socialist American idiot president Obama.
Oil prices starting to rebound even higher. Hopefully we have some good grade oil in there with our gas. Pretty sure the nat gas is methane.
Most importantly is , that as the info is settling in a day later,about the fact that pxp is Buying a survey ship rather than renting one like they did last time is very optimistic. It's almost the clearest sign that this is going to finally get done after such a long hold. I thought maybe it's for their itkin subsidiary. You know, the one that has the drilling contract in peru, but the stated specifically the contracts under Forum energy/pxp and referenced sc72. If I'm not mistaken , pxp was trading much higher when they were done with their first survey and about to drill, so we still have much higher prices to reach. Pxp has even more ownership now so they should far exceed their original rise even with 40% of sc72 going to china cnooc since we would have given that much to a driller to begin with. The threat of China being dealt with should also add value to the contract. Just my opinion. I've stated 15tcf but I've also seen as low as 3.1 tcf and as high as 20tcf. By the looks of the formation it looks very promising and surveys carried later on it looks like the 15tcf is actually possible.
There's a slim chance that the announcement of the survey ship purchase could be hype to keep pxp's stock higher while the dilemma with militarization by china plays out. I would lean towards them actually using it in confidence the deal is getting done.
With the world navies coming against china recently, china will need to sign this joint quickly to justify being in ph waters without being called out correctly for the invaders that they are. I wonder if this is the beginning of the Nostradamus prophecy. China ????/ussr/ Iran ???? against the world. Let's hope not yet as I need some spending g money before the show is over.
Oil prices
Brent crude is at its lowest its been in one month but if you look athe one year chart it's quite remarkable. Maybe I should learn to trade futures someone made a fortune this last year.
I don't expect crude to drop below 65 despite all the talk of increased output. Global demand is still growing nicely as the global economy soars.
Here's the year chart. So lovely if we dril finally
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/46
The article that said 2019 in the title for some reason was deleted this one shows the deleted post with 2019 in the title https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&hl=en-us&ei=2HoWW5biHuHcjwSV_5iQBw&q=ceytano+2019+china+sea&oq=ceytano+2019+china+sea&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-serp.3..35i39j33i160.20835.27503..27736...0....204.1574.12j3j1....3..0....1.........33i21j0i13i5i30.xqnlFP2kpkU%3D There's an almost identical title that says as soon as next year (2019) about the same event and similar quotes. Here's the link.
https://www.waonews.com/news/18868-Foreign_Minister_of_Philippines_the_joint_exploration_work_of_the_South_China_Sea_between_China_and_the_Philippines_is_the_fastest_or_next_year.html
As far as telling you when you will see a dollar if ever , you must understand it's pure speculation with many "if this happens". There's also no guarantee. I'd say there's a 15% chance or more that this goes to zero if the deal doesn't happen, gets pushed back for 2 years and pxp dilutes us to nothing . But there's over an 80% chance in my opinion only, that this deal happens. When framework is anounced I expect both pxp and fecof to start rising in similar patters but with fecof rising slightly higher. My GUESS is we might see 8 cents with framework. Dips back to 6 or 7....when they drill before the contract is signed, they will uncover different deposits at different times. It's not like they will make one hole and uncover 20tcf (I wish it could) . They will probably have to drill 6 to 8 holes to uncover that much. That first successful drill though will make the stock go to .20-25 ... cents as excitement builds but the contract, nor its distribution of percentages/revenues/profits, will be certain until the details in the contract is revealed. That's where the estimates can vary widely my guess. Anywhere from 50 cents to 1.50 the first 13 months after the contract is signed and work begins. If they use the Malampaya platform, and it will cost them, they may see production within 13 to 16 months from original drilling.
If they start to make an LNG process out of this, the profits can almost double from what Malampaya was receiving per units. LNG is that much more expensive. There's also a process that China developed that can also enhance quicker profits for certain usage. http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/19/news/china-flammable-ice-sea/index.html
I think if you are very patient with this it will pay off huge and estimates will be revised as details will be revealed. Real educated analysts who went to school for this , NOT I, will begin to follow the stock and give professional opinions after drilling and contractdetails are explained for analysis . I would not put all my money on this stock. Apple with its first I-phone was the exception where you could put all your money on one stock. This should be well diversified so you don't worry so much and grow anxious. I'm not buying any more fecof simply because it reflects 75% of my portfolio and that's already way too much. But I'm not selling either. At a certain point though, maybe 25 cents I would re evaluate and see if I want to buy pxp instead if pxp hasn't risen as much as fecof atthat future point in time. I hope that helps good luck
The conclusion is that china needs to settle down a bit so when the philipines anounce the deal their people can accept it better. It will be harder to get the senators behind the framework contract too if they think china is a very big threat. So once they settle that it might be 3 to 6 months before you see it go to the 25 cents you want or anywhere close to that. Nothing is guaranteed but at least all the militarization from china hasn't stopped dutertea administration from keeping the deal alive. At least so far. It would be wise for china to sign the framework to justify the protection for their joint exploration/investment. Framework also serves as a gentlemans treaty to not take any more disputed islands. I don't trust China that much but it's better than nothing.
Additional info trying to figure out malampayas true worth by looking at their 10% royalty only and not combined with other tax revenues. Etc
The link below totaled it to 8.7 bil by end of 2015. Which included a 400 mil check for 2015 which reflected the steep drop in oil/ gas prices. A far cry from the 1.1 bil check they received in 2012 but they did increase output recently from additional drilling work in Malampaya. Maybe they are at 10 bil by 2018 which means Malampaya is well over 100 bil in gross proceeds by end of 2018. With another 8 years left I am not wrong to assume about 150 bil in gross proceeds as prices rise back up. If there is indeed 15 tcf in sc72 you can say that sc72 is worth around 825 bil ( 15 tcf divided into 2.7 tcf is 5.5 times malampayas worth)before china takes their damn to hell 40%..... that leaves 495 bil (60% left) to divide up between ph and the consortium. Drillers. I would assume cnooc is not in this figure. Cnooc would represent China's 40%.
Fecofs gross profits for its 5% would be 24 bil lifetime if absolutely everything goes right from here on out. So far most things have gone wrong but I'm still hopeful that they will achieve at least 35% of this number it's still a windfall for a 15 m dollar company
https://businessmirror.com.ph/government-got-p18-42-billion-from-malampaya/
Irish. I found another recent article that seems to back up your claim but then they miscorrectly state about a 60/40% split when the fact is govt royalty for Malampaya is only 10%. So these "reporters" are deeply flawed. The also make revenue statements which includes the income tax the ph received from the projects instead of just separating the royalty alone.
I found a much older article which was in 2011 but makes the clear distinction of what was up to date royalty only (10%) from the project. This is also royalty that has deducted the expense of the project back to the JV. And at least this articles clarifies correctly that Malampaya gets 10% in Gross revenues after expenses of project cost. 2011 was 1 year before their record 1.1 billion us royalty. So if you add it to the 4.6 bil that article states then they received 4.6 bil plus 1.1bil equals 5.7 bil. By 2012. The project received well over 60 billion in total by 2012, but before taxes. Those numbers mean Malampaya by the time it dies in 2024 will have produced much more than 100 bil in gross revenues. Sc72 could be 3 to 5 times as large so that's 500 bil if it's 5 times or 15tcf in size. All this depends on price of gas and oil.
I found another article that said ph govt received 21 bil in revenues which matches ongpins video exactly, and from where he assumes that if that's 10% then the entire field produced 210 bil. But I realize that the 21 bil in that article included tax revenue from the consortium and that inflated the numbers dramatically. So I disregard that article and I am focusing on the older one that specifically states the "royalty" amount only.
I believe a Malampaya today would be worth around 150bil because of where oil and gas prices will eventually be going . Yes China will take 40% but our costs would be lower if they do it . Not the best trade off but everything should be accounted for. I think 75 cents in 3 years is grossly undervalued but I'd be happy to get pxp shares in a buyout. Especially at 14 or lower. as they drill more wells and slowly grow into an Exxon
mobile of the philipines.
http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2011/06/09/total-revenues-received-by-the-government-from-the-malampaya-project-reach-p184b/
http://www.officialgazette.gov.ph/2011/06/09/total-revenues-received-by-the-government-from-the-malampaya-project-reach-p184b/
Link to malampayas worth
Proof.
Ph govt gets only 10% in that specific contract. After that deal they revised their constitution to receive 60% to keep criminal presidents who sold out their people in corrupt deals, from doing so again.
Example. Exhibit 1
https://mobile.offshoreenergytoday.com/malampaya-jv-hands-over-1-1-bln-check-to-govt-philippines/
Irish.....
I respect your opinion , but I've been following this for years. It's a fact that Malampaya gives the govt only ten percent on the revenues per the contact they signed. The govt receives roughly a billion a year from profits depending on the price of nat gas and expenses the drillers take first. There's a picture on google where they govt receives a check for 1 billion in I think 2012.... so that year alone the entire Malampaya produced 10 billion in profits.
They've been pumping profits for over 16 years now. I think the project started 2001 but they got pumping in 2003.
Lastly. The title is "govt revenues ". Once again the govt gets 10% of the deal.
Nobody would be getting this excited , especially china if this (sc72)was just a 60 billion dollar well (3 times malampayas govt revenues). They would just buy the damn thing.
There are articles that are released by the energy dept that also state there's trillions in the South China Sea and that a good chunk of it is in the reed bank. They compare this to Saudi Arabia for a reason.
I think you will be pleasantly surprised when you realize and verify my numbers. Or I will be very disappointed if I'm wrong. Lol
If you google these key words. "Ceytano 2019 china sea" you'll see a title pop up from cnn that posted the articl3 days ago. Since then I can't seem to download the link. Like it's been taken down. Put you can see it clearly in the search engine. Doesn't matter. When they lift the restrictions for drilling soon after a framework it will all be fine. Looks like sc57 gets drilled first. Owned by jadestone. I guess a test run. Not with cnooc but another Chinese driller.
That's exactly the same math I've been talking about all along. That's why I got you bro this black gold rush to begin with. I'm just waiting for the govt to validate my gold rush claim so I can start profiting otherwise I'm just here with my shovels getting old.
P.s. Very very importantly fact is that ph got screwed on the Malampaya deal by getting only 10% of the revenues to get it done by foreign drillers. So whatever ph got you multiply it by 1000% to know th total revenues in there.... that's why ongpins said 210 billion dollar Malampaya..... multiply by 5 times as big. 1 trillion dollar fund!!!
P.s. Looks like ongpins wasn't exaggerating after all !!! Astronomical!
Please read it again goforthebet. It clearly states by early 2019 in about the very first paragraph. I wish that wasn't 5 months away but he's talking about the joint exploration contract and not the framework contract which is needed first and expected much sooner.
By all. Means Edwards please stay, most of us just prefer if you weren't so overly pessimistic and negative 99% of the time. Balance it out a little and have some faith or sell the stock. That's all. If I've been to harsh I do apologize. If I like to be blunt with my emotions so others know how they too are coming across.
Because of the drama unfolding in s china Sea it looks like ceytano is pushing back possible joint exploration to early 2019. This is good news that it's still on the table despite the posturing. I bow you prefer the deal get scrapped but no other company will touch this in fear of a china invasion or disruption so the only one you can count on to invest , as well as eliminating the threat, is to drill with China themselves in a similar partnership we would give any other company anyway. It's not so great that things got pushed back so much....2019.... but that doesn't mean stages of a framework won't be anounced sooner. Sending the stock up very high.
Good luck to all. Gas prices keep edging higher. Almost at 3 now. Oil will stabilize at 65-68 which is fair.
Last Thursday article. Missed it. Would explain the high volume on Pxp on that day
http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/06/02/DFA-Chief-Alan-Cayetano-PH-China-exploration.html
You are correct. But the wording duterte used was wrong. For a lawyer , on the contrary, he talks like a simpleton with half a brain. He should have simply said we will award the contract JV partnership with a Chinese state owned company and in this way we will both benefit from the disputed territory while working together under corporate contracts. All this will be done within the current was and a framework that specifies that working together in so called disputed territory does not invalidate or negate the dispute in anyway but puts it aside for now as the contract is seperate or grandfathered in as a typical business arrangement. This lazy fool was too bothered to say all that so he said it's like a partnership with China and got himself in trouble.
The article posted recently on June 2nd is very promising and it seems the deal is still held up in the ph until things come down and things become a little more trusting after what the nasty commies just did. But it will move forward and a corporate contract is more stable that disputed waters with no contract. Or there will be severe consequences the likes of Iran and North Korea starving to death
What do you suggest we do to "unite"? Please be a bit more specific if you're planning a strategy
Hey Irish. Besides giving that letter on behalf of fecofs shareholders which may or may not help us (thank you for your efforts regardless), did your contact hear anything promising from within the board? Were they upbeat that chances are goodthis framework would get done, signed, and drilled together with China? What was the consensus? I'm sure we are all very curious. Thanks
From your mouth Irish. To gods ear. I've had the rug pulled under me too many times before. The volume of pxp doesn't really represent that much of a confidence booster of a anticipatory progress that you speak of. Maybe they just bought their shares the day before explaining the triple volume of yesterday. Also with this stock pxp being restricted to mainly philiino shareholders it has its limits to growth. That's probably why they have the international symbol buts it's just not popular yet since the contract hasn't officially been signed yet.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rt.com/op-ed/428367-duterte-war-china-philippines/amp/
Summary of this article is that duterte never is d his own words to threaten war. Those articles were second hand like ceytano talking about red lines. Conclusion that duterte will avaoid war at all cost in place for joint development and peace, but doesn't hurt to look tougher I. Front of ph voters for re election.
Well then if you're so confident it's going to go that high stop crying every single day like you are making it sound like you're convinced it's going to zero. Maybe you should get some meds for your bi polar condition. Good luck to you and your mental health..
Someone like pxp actually buying up shares of fecof , as the price. Per share goes up, and the float gets smaller is a great scenario if it would happen instead of them stealing forum shares from within at a smaller price. The difference is that fecof has 410 mil shares and gel has 70 mil shares. Only an uneducated financially oblivious investor cannot understand that.
But still. Good luck to all of us.
Irish explained "buy fecof shares in the open market". Not fecofs forum shares. Big difference.
Edward are you trolling this board or is it your lack of education on stocks or this investment that make it sound that way?
Please stop with the annoying remarks or better yet sell me your 500 shares and go buy something else.
Is your name even Edward? Sounds to me like your grammar in English is lacking that's why I ask.
Try to find solutions instead of pointing out the obvious problems and whining about it. Thank you
Hey Irish. Maybe it's time we come up with a strategy to get some penny stock newsletter to follow this company and suggest it to their readers. Or maybe we should just chip in and start our own marketing campaign for promotion. I keep window dressing this up as some fool dresses it down. We need a change here so it's already healthy before ananouncement. If we allow this to drop below 2 pennies pxp will come by and just make a buyout bid for it for a fraction what it should go for. And nobody will stop them since they own the majority and dictate what to do.
What has the sec responded with? It's been 30 days hasn't it? Or not yet 30 ? Thanks
All this stock activity in pxp is about 40 minutes before their stock holders meeting so it could be of some significance and maybe some big news they chose to announce during the meeting. Or maybe they are buying shares back themselves today just to quiet disgruntled shareholders. Who really know? Keep your fingers crossed!!
Pxp. 13:40. Huge percentage gains for the day so far on very high volume. That damn framework contract must be ready to hand the Chinese soon as a form of a peace treaty on what's ph sovereignty.
Yes. I have to agree that pxp really only has sc72 to count on , and the fact it's rising on strong volume might signal more than just a dead cat bounce..... I hope. Considering the fact that duterte never said joint exploration is off the table in all this posturing is a good sign for pxp and fecof. So either they know something or are basing the bounce from what I mentioned.
the ph. Cannot drill this without a JV. They tried to get an international driller before and nobody wanted to touch it because of the China dispute. A 3.5 billion investment just to have China take it by force is too much for Shell to risk. China Shell ph together might work fine!! Don't assume that ph can just start drilling tomorrow. Just doesn't work that way and you should really know better by now if you held it as long as you've said.
I hope you all enjoyed the window dressing for fecof I did before closing. Hopefully it looks prettier for pxp's meeting and their consideration.
About 3 cents a share if I remember correctly. Like 8 years ago. What's the point? That's when fecof still had a potential mine and 25% of sc72. Now they have 8%!!
Do not confuse the 50 cents a share for each forum share back then. With the shares of fecof. Forum/fel had something like 33 mil shares outstanding. And fecof has like 410 mil shares.... so it was likereceiving .035 a share for fecof. Al that money is gone and you know the rest. What point are you trying to make?? Being upset and having a temper tantrum is not an investment strategy. If it gets drilled we make lots of money. If it doesn't you lose everything in this investment. Very simple.
They would laugh at the request .
Pxp as a whole is trading at under 500 mil market cap with their 52% ownership of all sc72
And you are suggesting that fecofs market cap be listed just as high or higher than pxp who is also trading in the open market, albeit with restrictions. As if fecofs 5% of the entire sc72 is already of equal value to pxp's.
We are on the same side but let's be realistic please. Patience. It should all work out if it well you are diversified like you said so no worries
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/05/29/asia/duterte-cayetano-south-china-sea-intl/index.html
https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2148204/philippines-rodrigo-duterte-will-go-war-china-if-it%3famp=1.
I wouldn't panic and go sell my shares of any investment in the South China Sea just because it's obvious the ph would lose a war. They are finally putting half a brain in duterte by learning better posturing, and earning public international opinion and sympathy for their cause and rightful sovereignty ownership. If China dares to shoot up philipinos in their own economic zones already recognized by the international community, china would lose a trillion dollars in trade overnight as every country starts to embargo china for its INVASION. So it's back to chess and even though china threatens war even in ph economic exclusive zones they would dare not to as it would be a clear violation and invasion of sovereign territory. There's no dispute at all about economic zones except for the invader China who should finally be punished for her aggression. Finally time for ph to call their bluff for either better ties and a clear framework contract or cut ties with these bastards and go with Shell philipines who has Malampaya. We're not talking about the damn spratlys here. If the reed bank is contested because of a red line then so is Malampaya and that's never been the case. F maoists. Long live freedom!! A good argument is sometimes well needed. Even with fists. So the rest of the world can wake up to what's going on and so the bloody commies know when they've gone too far and there's a price to pay one way or another . Dumb China. Even if they get the reed bank by force they still lose more then they win. They can't decide if their capitalists or commies. Only fools who hopefully realize their stupid lies are obvious and they better start playing fair quickly.
Having said that, I still think this chess game ends in a tie and a framework ,if not then with the ph keeping her own reed bank when usa and Australian an navy confront china and protect ph sovereign zones in a stand against China's expansion.. I obviously have a bias opinion but this is obviously the extreme reaction necessary now by stupid duterte for being too soft with China earlier. He is obviously now a bumbling idiot just winging it and trying to regain his people's confidence in his loyalty to the ph and not such a Chinese stood puppet.
I hope this "source" wasn't just a bartender and instead someone related to the project. If you could elaborate without risk revealing your source , that would be great. Sounds promising.
https://www.google.com/amp/m.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2147935/philippines-rebuilding-runway-south-china-sea-island%3famp=1
Interesting development. Not sure if it's good or bad for the current situation. One thing is certain, china better not get any ideas of just taking the reed bank and forgoing the contract as some have feared, as duterte is now pushing the issue of what is actually sovereign territory and he can ask for international assistance if the Chinese commies continue to act as though they can rob everyone without even a slap on the hand.
Some will fear that this puts our deal in peril but I see better bargaining ability when you stand up for what's yours and regardless of chinas thin skin the ph should shove that UN declaration up chinas nose. So stupid to not bring up the international award (unanimous) as to not upset China as China robs all the islands.
This is the equivalent of Greece saying all of Europe and china belongs to Greece because we have old maps that it use to be ours once!!! But if you don't pick up a big stick and defend it then you lose it. Has always been that way.