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Since we have nothing going on and we are red....as usual, I went to HB's twitter account and viewed all of his "favorited" tweets. I have some thoughts about them but wonder if there is anything to glean from his activity? I would be curious about others thoughts on same.
G$
This partnering talk for Japan tells me a buyout
LOL.....There couldn't be a more contradictory statement.
An Asian partnership of 200m upfront, which will be the number imo, will ensure that there will be no offering....at least until we are well above the last offering price ($19.60)
Too easy
G$
Does it really matter whether they sold a little or liquidated their entire position? The answer is no. The buying pressure is where the cerebral money is...as seen today. I would prefer they were entirely out of the stock so more credible money could be tracked anyway.
G$
2da,
Volume not convincing for news imo. Seems like more of an oversold inevitability.
Of course being wrong and an announcement of an Asian partnership for $200m upfront would be fine with me.
Regards,
G$
Thanks for the explanation binchey. I am not sure I buy the philosophy but it makes some sense.
Regards,
G$
binchey,
Can you explain to the board what a "gap" is? I believe they are typically used as an excuse for poor performance of a stock.
thanks
G$
We don't need magic.
Actually AmpleKind that is exactly what we do need. If Denner is not there specifically to be in the "Activist" role then there is no need for him to be on the board at all. Ariad could have every molecule in existence to cure every cancer in existence but without Denner doing what he apparently does which is force the hand of uncooperative board members, then great molecules just dont matter because Ariad will not have the $$ to execute.
Regards,
G$
Pona killer ph 1 trial has started
Maybe in 6-7 years....
I am sure you arent serious
I wouldnt get too excited about Denner yet. It all looks good on paper for the time being but he has been on the board of VVUS since 7/13 and the sp has been more than cut in half since then
however, the lack of certainty is based on the data from GILD’s ION-3 study compared to the ION-1 study (#msg-95103023, #msg-96696670) rather than the report of one patient who relapsed after an 8-week treatment course.
Sure, of course. Just seems like a data point not widely known. And, I am always looking for a GILD chink in the armor..so to speak.
GILD. An interesting excerpt that may speak to the future of the 8 week regimen...
According to Dr. Sulkowski, the new DAAs might change current notions about HCV resistance to these drugs. This concept is supported by a single patient in the LONESTAR trial who was treated for eight weeks with sofosbuvir plus ledipasvir and then relapsed after treatment. At the time of relapse, the patient’s viral quasi-species included variants with mutations conferring decreased susceptibility to both sofosbuvir and ledipasvir. The key features of this patient’s case, Dr. Sulkowski said, were the presence of the S282T mutation, which has been rarely seen in patients treated to date, and what happened next with retreatment: When clinicians initiated a second round of treatment with the same drugs, sofosbuvir and ledipisvir, plus the addition of ribavirin, the patient had robust and rapid viral suppression, and following a longer course of therapy (24 weeks), achieved SVR.
The full article is a good read
http://tinyurl.com/klhc83r
G$
Thanks for the info. It all makes sense.
G$
As long as we are listing warning signs....
The single biggest red flag for me was when the over-allotment of the $19.60 offering was not exercised. I knew at that point it was time to sell out completely. I did not however listen to myself.
What bothers me most about today was the US Iclusig user data.
This conversation was confusing at best for sure. I find it interesting that they talked of keeping the script data to themselves (and from the competition) for strategic/tactical reasons. I cant come up with anything except that the scripts are being written off label in earlier lines and they dont want to let that out yet. (This is me giving them the benefit of the doubt).
What other reasons can we come up with for the secrecy?
I do suspect however, that as time goes, regardless of label, Iclusig will take over 2nd line in CML. I want to see the trend on this over the next few quarters. I also believe GIST is under the radar right now and could be a share price mover during/after ASCO.
I believe that new building rent comes into play in 2015
Odd that there werent any analyst questions regarding what will be one of the most expensive alligators in their pockets. Either they sublease it or buy their way out of the lease which will be expensive I imagine. They are between a rock and a hard spot on this for sure.
And finally, we all acknowledge that 113 has considerable competition. I will go out on a limb and say once it gets to market it will indeed be BIC given the positive brain met distinction.
Dr. Denner is the wildcard in all of this....
I have always been and continue to be a buyer of Ariad.
Best,
G$
I dont consider partnerships with upfront cash and milestone payments to be dilution. This again is Ariads only way out. Pray for a decent deal on the asian front....it will absolutely save the company. I believe it is imminent 2da
G$
One thing is for sure and irrefutable. If HB raises capital through another offering...as he eluded to in the cc Ariad will NEVER be an investment grade company again. You can take that to the bank.
G$
It is odd that so many here want a buyout when we all know that $10 to $12 today would be a gift in the current situation and nowhere near reflects the true potential of the pipeline long term.
Rationally, there are 2 and ONLY 2 things that can and should happen to increase shareholder value:
1. Partner Iclusig and/or AP26113 with BP to ensure adequate capital going forward for 2-4 years beyond current levels
2. A BP equity stake (I prefer this one personally)
Either or both of these alleviates all financial pressure and brings Ariad right back to business instead of killing brain power trying to figure out what to do next. My opinion is that one of these things should have happened months ago.
Easy fix.
G$
NFLX
One of the obvious choices is for NFLX to buy a stake, say 10% of LVLT which boasts the largest backbone in the world....much of it still dark fiber. Win win for both companies and guarantees NFLX prime routing. Almost too easy.
G$
ENTA is a bunch of scientists wishing to stay independentt
What a great position to be in given the $195m check that is essentially due. Almost endless top end really....
Why not be a think tank given the obvious success in the HCV arena? Just create and multiply the previous success model over and over.
G$
so you can probably tell that I’m not a believer :- )
Ya know Dew, I am not either....I will just call it luck....ya luck.
Regards,
G$
ARIA
I am not a fanatic believer in technical analysis but I have watched Bollinger Bands in general over several years and have been treated well. In this case, ARIA is ready for a decent move.....if you are so inclined.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ARIA&t=1d#symbol=aria;range=5d;compare=;indicator=split+bollinger+volume+rsi+macd;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
ARIA
The Leerink presentation was well worth the listen. Dr Clackson got right down in the weeds. Some insight for sure.
http://investor.ariad.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=118422&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=5097192
G$
you need to re-read my post
I too have received an abundance of options throughout my career in the defense industry and each time they were related to individual performance....not blanket awards for the leadership.
lax mentioned that employees in general may have received options that due to the small number didnt have to be reported and that is fine. Directors and the CEO do not fall under the typical "employee" as I mentioned in an earlier post.
In the end it is a slap in the face to shareholders.
3) is Harvey placing undue influence on the board (we've seen evidence of that before)
I think common sense will tell us that this is a given.
Also, the awards werent given to "employees" per se. They were given to leadership from what I can tell.
Anyway, water under the bridge....but I am still hotter than hell...in between fits of incredulousness at the stones these people have.
Honestly lax, I could care less who approved the awards but to use the phrase "based upon the Company’s performance in 2013" is one of the most laughable things that I have heard in a long while. The absolute correct and ethical thing to do is for each and every person receiving them, is to give them back or donate them to a charity....led by Harvey who doesnt seem to be arguing about getting them.
Can you believe it? From the new 8-k options awards "based upon the Company’s performance in 2013". Harvey is delusional and this borders on criminal as far as I am concerned. He has to go
G$
The volume just doesnt reflect the perceived carnage today. I do love the purchase opportunity though.
Reporting 12/31/2013 so far...
EAGLE ASSET MANAGEMENT INC 12/31/2013 (4,536,999) Sold out
COLUMBIA WANGER ASSET MANAGEMENT 12/31/2013 (5,291,000) Sold Out
there are a few smaller sales and a few small purchases. It will be interesting to see where FMR and Vanguard are when they decide to report.
Here is link from October 23 2013 that says Dubois owns 5.4% of Ariad. Closing price on that day was $3.06
http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/stephen-duboiss-hedge-fund-now-owns-a-large-position-in-ariad-pharmaceuticals-273001/
Courtesy of jaybe on SI
"In the present study, we report for the first time that ponatinib also potentiates the cytotoxicity of widely used therapeutic substrates of MRP7, such as paclitaxel, docetaxel, vincristine and vinblastine...thus, ponatinib may represent a potential reversal agent for the treatment of MDR (multi-drug resistance) and may be useful for combination therapy in MDR cancer patients in clinical practice."
http://www.spandidos-publications.com/10.3892/or.2014.3002
Is this hype or true potential? and if true potential, how long would it take to add value to Ariad?
Thanks for any insight.
G$
2da,
There was no intention to establish an order of what needs to happen. It all needs to happen.
I want to hear from Dr. Denner. I want to hear that he has a seat on the BOD and is moving toward reconfiguring the BOD....no matter what shape that takes. I would prefer Dr. Berger be replaced so Ariad can regain some credibility. That move alone is worth a couple of bucks.
Best of luck and glad that you are back.
G$
I think anyone that believes there will be a buyout in the near term needs to take a nap. There simply is no buyout looming and there never was. Thoughts otherwise are irrational. There are lots of places to put your money until Ariad pulls itself together. We need numbers for Iclusig uptake over the next few quarters. We need a way ahead for AP26113 and we need cash. There is a bright future (2 years from now) and it will be even brighter if Dr. Denner gets off his ass and lets the shareholders in on his plan.
G$
linhdtu,
Those $28 shares look pretty good today eh?
G$
lax,
My bigger point is that the label (no matter what country approves it) will become increasingly obsolete in its current form. Not right away obviously but given the off label use that is ALREADY occurring, and as the CV events are more understood there will be a general increase in earlier line use. I would bet on it.
btw, how do we get NRx/TRx reporting now? I emailed Biologics and asked if they published any such data.....silence.
take care,
G$
In actuality, in its current indication Iclusig is likely to capture an amount of the market consistent with that in the US.
Is Australia bound by the current U.S. label?
My opinion is that we will see much larger than expected percentages in the second line and a few in the front line both in the U.S. and Australia as we go forward. This off label use will slowly and consistently undermine all available therapies as we learn more on reducing CV events. We do already know that 20% of current Iclusig users are second line per the JPM presentation.
regards,
G$
linhdtu, that is the double edge sword. Not a lot of shares out there so they are harder to get. However, once the clouds clear that same small float makes it all worth it. Just keep taking what you can get. It is what I do. I am however betting on positive news from the coming PIII results.
At JPM the timeline was "coming weeks" I believe
my previously mentioned $28 limit buy triggered....unfortunately. I think we might be able to pick up the last of them at $26....barring news of course.
EOD....just like last week never happened.