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bb8675309, yes...Dr.M said "...planning to present on a relatively short notice" . He also said in the context of being ahead of Cassava for ALZ phase 3 "...Parkinson's disease dementia data which also is unique for Anavex". So, those are pretty strong and definitive statements considering the fact he called the ALZ trial as PIVOTAL .
He also stressed that "...and the other point I tried to make is that we have the program in Rett syndrome, which could generate revenue pretty soon by itself".
We are in for significant appreciation for AVXL.
-vg_future
boid568, possible that Dr.M might have taken it into consideration. However, since the company made it clear (in multiple communications/clarifications to investors), I would still take it as two separate tracks and two different approaches (considering the amount of studies done on ALZ patients and the positive results within Australia as opposed to RETT). Of course, since getting permission under SAS is still a process for the patients and doctors, you would see a slower take (as opposed to something available by simple prescription) and hence handling the commercial and supply aspect shouldn't be an issue...yet (a good problem to have though).
-vg_future
boi568, just to be clear, Dr. M's comment was specifically for the RETT trial participants. Some on this board have a tendency to take this out of context and apply it to the ALZ related SAS NEWS from last year. Anavex (and in fact the official folks in Australia) have made it clear that that approval is open to any of the patients if their doctor can apply for or request the use.
-vg_future
plexrec, here you go. From the transcript....towards the end of his response/answer.
Ram Selvaraju -- H.C. Wainwright -- Analyst
OK, great. And then just three other very quick ones. Firstly, assuming you have positive data in Rett syndrome, what implications might that have for future development of blarcamesine in others orphan neurological diseases? And can you elaborate at this juncture, what would potentially be your highest priority choices with regard to future orphan CNS indication development? Secondly, what is the significance from a commercial standpoint of the oral solution, in particular, as this pertains to Rett syndrome? I think, you know, we may have touched upon this in the past, but it probably is worthwhile reiterating that. And then lastly, I was wondering if you could comment at this point about the possibility of co-formulation, co-administration, synergistic combination of blarcamesine with other compounds in the Anavex pipeline? And if that's likely to be the case, if that is something that you think might be something you wind up exploring in the future which other compounds or which other types of compounds from the Anavex earlier stage portfolio might be likely to be most synergistic with blarcamesine? Thanks.
Christopher Missling -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Right. So the first question regarding -- or the second question regarding the solution, I think it's a very strong advantage because many of these kids or girls, they have a hard time swallowing. Some even cannot even eat, they have an artificial pouch to -- a feeding tube and liquid formulation is the only way actually to provide a drug substance to the patients other than by injection which is very overly inconvenient and cumbersome. So that is a very strategic advantage of the therapeutic administration.
The first question regarding what could trigger the approval of Rett syndrome, we have seen that ANAVEX 2-73 has been extremely strong in treatment studies, but to also affect the pathology of Fragile X, which is autism spectrum disorder, as well as, infantile spasm and Angelman syndrome, another rare disease, these all three diseases. But Fragile X is the largest rare disease of this autism spectrum disorder and with a multiple of the patient than Rett syndrome patients. So since we have very strong preclinical data and Rett syndrome happens to be a part of the autism spectrum disorder, given now we have basically supportive data, very strong data preclinically in clinical in Rett syndrome, we have now very strong and supportive data in preclinical in Fragile X. We believe that the chances have increased to also be successful in a clinical study in the Fragile X and that's why we're planning, and we already have developed the study design to move into Fragile X as a next study for ANAVEX 2-73.
Regarding the last questions about synergies, we don't know if the synergy with another sigma-1 agonist might be the best choice. I would rather think that a synergy could be with other compounds targeting other pathways, like if Adu will get approved, we believe it will be synergistic to ANAVEX 2-73 because it is a different pathway. But also we have seen that ANAVEX 2-73 has been shown preclinically to prevent the disease. So it's not only the treatment which is the goal and that's what we're now finding out with our ongoing Phase 3 study in Alzheimer's disease.
But also thinking ahead strategically that one day of ANAVEX 2-73 could be used as a daily mini-aspirin potentially to avoid being -- coming in near to be in a situation where you get affected by or afflicted by such a horrible disease like Alzheimer's disease.
-vg_future
Thanks boi568. That should put an end to it. I hated it when the so called experts and few others are bent upon commenting on un-published data in a negative slant.
Thanks infitvest.
Please listen to Tom's question towards the end (starting around 40th minute)...
- comparison to SAVA (we are far ahead and far better)
- RETT revenue
- unique and good PDD data
- Pivotal study
- Interim readout of ALZ 2b/3 if FDA recommends
- re-mention of PDD data presentation in short order (in a conference or webinar)
Couldn't stop listening to it multiple times...music to the ears.
-vg_future
Huggy2, please listen to the link that infitvest posted
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=161764881
He did say RETT will bring in revenue. There is another tidbit about PDD in the same sentence. Listen.
Wow! Loved the conference. RETT is revenue generating...SOON.....and that with PDD data.....we are in great shape. Cassava still has to start enrolling...we are already at 86% enrolled. I am glad that he is comparing with competitors and put it in proper perspective.
Simply WOW!
Would love to see the entire transcript.
-vg_future
PDD data (including actigraph) to be releases in a relatively small time frame.
call is still on. Try re-connecting.
No competition in RETT. Great relation with the community...so, easy to market.
No reason? That is not true. We have so many great NEWS releases starting from SAS (and even before that), PDD data for ALZ, RETT data.....we never got any price appreciation for those. So, I would take it as a delayed response to those triggered by SAVA and a follow up comparison that out AVXL above SAVA. We are still undervalued now. So, anyone talking about 8 is just hoping to get in (same guys who were talking about 4s when we were at 6).
-vg_future
Exactly. That is where the analysts play a role...how can they pull out info (Dr.M is sometimes very glad that they asked the questions....because he can provide more details or clarification). I am hoping we will get more analysts due to the recent focus we got.
-vg_future
Expecting more analysts in the CC today and more revealing tidbits from the Q&A. My wish list
- SAS revenue and scope
- New SAS approval for RETT and its implications
- new rare indication
- more color to PD/PDD phase 3
- partnership discussions for ALZ
-vg_future
My extrapolation of 86% tells me that it will be around 3 months or even less with all the new publicity that we have (not 4 months). Also, it is possible that there might be other arrangement for cash...not necessarily just sale of stocks. We would have to wait for the final numbers in SEC filings.
-vg_future
Another tidbit from the PR...SAS for RETT in Australia. Looks like all things are aligning for a perfect launch of AVXL (and of course the drug as well for all). Also, let's not assume that all cash is from stock sales...there could be SAS revenue as well. Maybe they cannot announce it itemized for the same reason they cannot market it.
-vg_future
I agree. Thanks for the insights.
-vg_future
Bio, as an alternate thought, they might be cleaning their books for any acquisitions (financing) or to be acquired as well. Just thinking out loud. Since there is a chance (however small it might be) that they get approved by FDA...there might be folks who would be interested in it now...vs later.
-vg_future
Steady_T, as you said, the buyer might have sold them to a different buyer
or even sold a higher strike price call on top of these (making them a spread) since there was lot of premium on the day of the big runup. Either scenarios would be transparent to you (your situation remains the same until you buy back the calls or the calls get actually exercised). As you are aware, exercising calls is still a choice until the last day at which time it happens automatically. The buyer might not even have enough money to exercise the calls and buy the shares. In this case, the probability of a short or a long or a regular trader being involved are same in my opinion. However, I did hear that shorts do use the strategy of buying the calls to limit their exposure (or else the exposure would be huge like GameStop or Tesla).
-vg_future
Steady_T, if I may jump in and answer. The calls will not be closed unless the buyer decides to exercise them and buy the shares. It has to make sense for the buyer to exercise them because the buyer has to pay $7.50 per share to exercise...he/she has to account for the price he/she paid to buy the calls in the first place. Since you said that you sold the calls before the runup, then I am assuming that you didn't get much money for the calls and might not be a big consideration factor for the buyer in exercising the options (unfortunately that is one down side to selling calls...the possibility of returns is limited unless the calls close worthless). You can buy back the calls to close the position (when you sold, they are marked as "sell to open" and now it will be "buy to close"). You cannot sell the shares on which you sold the calls until the calls are hanging on their head...3 options
1. Wait for the buyer to exercise - shares will disappear from your account
2. Buy back the calls - you are free to do whatever you want with the shares after this
3. Wait for the expiration date - they will be close automatically if the price of the stock is 5 cents above the target price ($7.50)
Hope that helps.
-vg_future
The problem here is that folks are ignoring all the pieces of great NEWS that we had over last few months (at least starting from the SAS approval by TGA to RETT readout) and not realizing that AVXL price never reflected the NEWS or the potential when the NEWS came out...in fact, we might have gone down during those occasions. So, the current price is still undervalued and hence the "no specific NEWS for this run" theory/logic doesn't hold.
-vg_future
Great post Bio. Your explanation is very good. Thanks.
falconer66a, very well said. Thanks for the insight. The time is ripe for Anavex's day under the sun. Everything (all readouts and clinical updates and business outlook) is lining up nicely....with proper audience.
-vg_future
I think there might be more to the COVID-19 and Coronavirus hashtag in the Anavex PR tweet this morning. The COVID-19 and Coronavirus tags were not there in the earlier tweets. Since there is business outlook mentioned in the PR this morning, there could be more than it being a simple hashtag...it could be like "we handled the COVID situation pretty good in 2020".....or it might be a juicy update. Who knows. Ofcourse, with all the publicity and visibility that we have received last week..any update will be more rewarding this time with more analysts tuning in.
Ofcourse, I don't want COVID to distract the bigger CNS drug pipeline that Anavex has...but, still it could be worthy if some company partners and tries out the drug for COVID or other viruses.
JMHO,
vg_future
There is a definite shift in the thinking and we now have lot of visibility. Any NEWS now would get lot of traction and even the conference calls should have more visibility. Remember the TGA approval call during the trading hours few months back...I bet that kind of call now would make analysts fall in line to get more info.
JMHO,
vg_future
Steady_T, they definitely are not the actual final short numbers. However, significant part of those (if not all) will be naked shorting (which is due to needed liquidity) and have to be taken care of (settled)...1 second later or few mins later or days later.
It could still cause a squeeze depending on any NEWS and sentiment out there.
JMHO,
vg_future
Thanks raja. Holy ...... slightest positive NEWS over the solid NEWS that Anavex had been giving over past few months would break the dam and rest will be history.....
From the link that you have posted.
Date $ Short Exempt TRF Vol EOD Vol O H L C Sh % of TRF Sh % of EOD SH Dollar Volume TEST O-H ? O-L ? H-L ?
02/01/2021 AVXL 185,121 3,500 534,143 873,400 6.37 6.57 6.25 6.53 34.7 21.2 1,190,282 0.66 0.20 -0.12 0.32
02/02/2021 AVXL 1,040,880 2,700 2,084,703 3,161,500 6.64 8.00 6.54 7.53 49.9 32.9 7,470,396 0.46 1.36 -0.10 1.46
02/03/2021 AVXL 5,474,341 18,103 9,413,674 18,086,200 8.06 10.98 7.97 10.38 58.2 30.3 51,164,560 -0.32 2.92 -0.10 3.02
02/04/2021 AVXL 45,569,870 219,476 78,235,599 116,354,200 19.94 28.70 13.80 14.91 58.2 39.2 881,207,361 -2.50 8.76 -6.14 14.90
02/05/2021 AVXL 4,268,243 230,896 10,878,600 15,561,087 13.35 13.76 11.30 12.39 39.2 27.4 54,206,686 0.59 0.41 -2.05 2.46
Format is messed up. You can see 45 millon on the 116 million day are short...not sure how many of them are temporary or already covered, but, a huge number to cover or unwind.
-vg_future
Weekend is the time for deals, breaking NEWS and all types of key announcements (partnerships or otherwise) come Monday. Shorts have to be careful going into this weekend considering the action. attention and possibility of a rocket launch going into the weekend. I just wish they get fried or burnt for all the manipulation they have subjected AVXL to.
Anavex's potential will take care of this.
As a reminder, again, yesterday's volume is not average investor induced.
-vg_future
Typical short covering happens around 10:30/11 AM due to margin calls. That should start the upswing IMHO.
-vg_future
Great link. Thanks. Maybe this is the unnamed indication.
She wants to take it. Wow! Love this.
-vg_future
BeingReal, the actual short interest ratio most likely is far more higher if you consider the naked shorts and naked calls. Please read what Jimmy has posted earlier. I don't have the link to the message though.
-vg_future
LBSR, I understand that you are not wishing it. When you say hope...your 40K shares will take a hit as well like the fellow long holders. Also, I see everyone saying no specific NEWS that triggered this. I agree and disagree
Agree - no trigger in las few days
Disagree - we have been good NEWS after good NEWS since TGA approval (a lot more before then). Unfortunately, stock never moved then. Just imagine where we would have been had it moved few bucks everytime we got those positive NEWS PRs...particularly in a field that is starved for positive NEWS.
LBSR_TO_DA_MOON, congrats. Please don't hope for single digits because there are many long holders who are holding and that will be cruel and also there are lot of predator companies (and forces) in the market which will misuse/abuse that. Enjoy our profit and wish other the best. You will grow with the fellow share holders and the company.
-vg_future
When I am invested, my intention is that it goes up. But, when people keep talking about unrealistic gaps...it doesn't sound right. If they keep beating it as a gospel...that is when I talk. It is not my problem...it is yours.
Anything reasonable, I listen. Constant drivel with wishful targets is definitely smelly.
Enough said.
-vg_future
Exactly what I am asking you. If you are a long term holder, just enjoy the ride. But, somehow it looks like you are trying to get in.
Keep beating it. Nice try.
Wishful thinking. You will be better off taking position and riding it.
Be careful with the message tagging well wishers who are worried that the stock is going with no reason.
There is lot of momentum tightly packed in here with the lid capping the price increase in spite of all the good NEWS. Anavex is getting its long overdue recognition finally...enjoy the rocket launch. Sit and relax.
-vg_future
Ignore button is beautiful. GME and SAVA stock movement showed where those type of guys belong.
-vg_future