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FAIR VALUE
This is how I come about fair value,
25 Million a month in sales
X
12 Months
X
.20 profit margin (probably higher after we bought dicon)
x
20 PE (remember we grew 1000% yoy, and havn't relase our best products)
=1.2B market Cap.
Or you can use a PE of 10, which gives you 600M as a low ball figure to work with.
Now you can use your 350 million outstanding shares, which would give you $3.42 fair value with a 20PE. Or $1.71 PPS lowball at 10PE.
Now, as our fellow long and scholar Fred has shown, 200M OS seems mathematically a pretty straight forward and logical outstanding share count. I have run the numbers with Fred and we agree that this number makes most sense based on what we know about share buybacks, and RME only having 66M shares.
Now using the market caps of 1.2B and lowball figure of 600M,
20PE= $6 fair value
10PE= $3 fair value (low ball).
I think the minimum we should be seeing would be $3. Factor in what I call the "squeeze multiple", which deals with the naked shorts having to buy back the billions of counterfeit stock they illegally sold into the market, and I think you can multiple my fair value calculations. 4x, 10x are extremely reasonable, and numbers for which the smart money is talking about.
Even using 4x, thats $24 with the 20PE, or $12 using the 10PE.
Odd that the average between these 2 numbers is $18??? I've been saying for months there is a strong group of longs looking for $18.
I wonder how hard it would be to sleep if you read this before bed and knew you were the one short billions of shares of spongetech. Ouch.
Link to Freds research.
http://spngdd.com/2010/01/19/estimate-outstanding-shares-float/
I do not feel sorry for the naked shorts 1 bit. Lets remember, they broke the law. Next, they tried to destroy us, and steal our money. Third, these guys make billions of dollars every year implementing the same scam they tried to run on spongetech. Its about time they get what they've had coming to them.
I've heard that $18 is where a decent size offer for spongetech sits. I like that $100 offer, do you remember maybe 8 months ago, a couple people on L2, had offers at $1000? Then I remember they changed it to $2000. That was not a joke, some big pocket longs know the shorts are trapped, and I think those offers were out there just to remind shorty whats coming.
I think those $7.5 Jan 2011 NITE puts are an excellent trade. Personally, I'm just waiting for the "trigger", which not only will give me some decent funds to put torwards buying them, but will also signal the start of the problems that will start to surface with this company. As if the insiders dumping stock isn't enough of a signal, I'm waiting for the the "trigger".
Google put options, they are not that complicated. Just think in terms of buying an option, keep it simple, selling options gets a little more complicated and isn't nessesary to put on this simple trade. You can buy a put, or a call. In the money, or out of the money. In this case, we would be buying the 7.5 put, which is out of the money.
You'll be buying the $7.5 Jan 2011 puts. So with your online broker pull up an option chain to see the quotes and the symbol for that Strike, and that expiry. I'd do it for you but I don't feel like getting up and grabbing my login card.
The most you'll lose is what you buy the options for. Each option is for 100 shares of stock. So whatever the price is times it by 100, to get what you'll pay per option. PM me if you have any more questions.
You know whats going to be really interesting? If they tell us the funds who are caught naked short SPNG. Can you imagine the panic? Not only will those funds be rushing to cover their naked shorts, but they'll also be faced with massive withdraws. It'll be their worst nightmare. YA BABY!
I'd prefer they didn't tell us the naked shorts until all the money is gone, as in transfered to us.
Going to be awesome watching these naked short criminals burn.
Well if that is the case, I’m going to have to argue that Spongetech’s Articles of Incorporation are also in question, and that Spongetech isn’t even a company. There is no spongetech.
Its to funny, that we get to pick and chose what SEC filings we use. We use the AS, but not the OS. We question the OS reduction, but its okay to use the 300B AS figure that delt with the split.
To funny.
Not only do you not have proof of this, but I can prove that this has not been the case in the past.
On April 16, 2009, RM Enterprises cancelled 526,585,544 common shares to reduce the common shares issued and outstanding from 1,249,451,605 to 722,866,061 common shares. These common shares were put back into the treasury.
are you joking? Let me know when we close above 4 cents, that'll be news. 2's traded today, seems like next we are going to be trading .02-.025 trading range next, then 2 weeks after that we'll be trading .015's-.025's, 2 weeks after that .01-.02.
Whenever is MGMT going to file?
Is SPNG on Nasdaq yet?
DROP THE 10K and END THIS, They are on the hook to lose billions, they will spend millions to try to destroy us, or delay what they have coming. Its only a mater of time before they find someone crooked in government who pulls some strings.
Posted by: patchman Date: Friday, February 05, 2010 10:23:51 AM
In reply to: None Post # of 227
Does anybody know whether or not Vanity Events changed locations when Spongetech moved?
The new office has corporate signs identifying Spongetech but not Vanity Events. Since they shared an office previously do they still share one now and if so, why wouldn't it be identified in the Hall or Office entrance? Nice new digs, lots of glass.
Soapy, do you know? I know that you are friends with Moscowitz and that you and Furth have been in NY recently at at the Spongetech office, were you there for SPNG or VAEV? Is Pike interested in VAEV as I hear he was in the office over the past week as well although he was not too happy with Steve from my reports. With the subpoena's issued, if these are common employees between companies like the receptionist was, does that mean that VAEV employees were also issued a subpoena?
Thank you.
I have not seen a zap pen, nor have I communicated with anyone who has, so I don’t know. All I do know is what I read in that PR. I was sharing news regarding the zap pen, and didn’t expect to get into some meaningless debate about whether spongetech is, or is not involved.
Its all peanuts relative to walmart anyways.
I'm not suprised you neglected to read the link I posted, so I'll just post the article for you here. Take a read and try to put together the link between Green Bridge's stain pain, and spongetech. (hint, check the bold print)
NXGen Holdings, Inc. Featured in Investor's Business Daily as Its Subsidiary Plans to Launch SpongeTech(R) Stain Remover Pen
Wednesday, 05 August 2009 15:00
Green Bridge Industries Signs Licensing Agreement with SpongeTech(R) Delivery Systems, Inc.
Press Release
Source: NXGen Holdings, Inc.
On Wednesday August 5, 2009, 10:00 am EDT
SARANAC, Mich., Aug. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- NXGen Holdings, Inc. (OTC: NXGH - News) is pleased to announce that the Company's wholly owned subsidiary, Green Bridge Industries, Inc., has entered into a licensing agreement with SpongeTech® Delivery Systems, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: SPNG - News), in which Green Bridge Industries has the exclusive nationwide rights to produce, market, and distribute the SpongeTech® Stain Remover Pens.
NXGen Holdings, Inc. will be featured in the Investor's Business Daily on Wednesday, August 5, 2009. The Company will also be featured on www.investors.com for the next two weeks starting Wednesday, August 5, 2009. Investor's Business Daily is read by nearly 1 million readers on a daily basis.
The SpongeTech® Pen will enable SpongeTech® to enter a new area of cleaning products. The Company designs, produces and markets innovative, cost-effective, and environmentally sensitive packaging and product delivery solutions through its exclusive patented packaging technology. SpongeTech® is a globally recognized brand that was built over the last couple of years through regional and national advertising campaigns on radio and television media outlets. SpongeTech® also has agreements with 28 Major League Baseball teams advertising in stadiums across the country as well as other sporting events such as the Mike Ashley Racing and the National Hot Rod Association, World Football Challenge, and the Nautica NYC Triathlon.
"We are pleased to be launching the new SpongeTech® Stain Remover Pen with our proprietary formula. SpongeTech® is a nationally recognized brand and is one of the fastest growing names in the household cleaning industry across the country and we are excited to market our product under the SpongeTech® name," stated William White, CEO of NXGen Holdings, Inc.
http://www.greenbridgeindustries.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13:nxgen-holdings-inc-featured-in-investors-business-daily-as-its-subsidiary-plans-to-launch-spongetechr-stain-remover-pen&catid=4:press-releases&Itemid=12
I brought this up earlier but it was deemed OT. I'm wondering that same thing. if you look at PIKE, you'll see they've been making those adjustments with that stock all along the way everytime a new form 4 is filed with spongetech.
I do have some concerns about that PARL company, specifically to 2 of the hedge funds that own shares, as those two hedge funds are involved in the naked short, rumor spreading game.
Please keep up, I don't have time to be catching people up.
http://www.greenbridgeindustries.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13:nxgen-holdings-inc-featured-in-investors-business-daily-as-its-subsidiary-plans-to-launch-spongetechr-stain-remover-pen&catid=4:press-releases&Itemid=12
You can buy the Jan 2011 7.5 NITE puts for 10 cents. x100 shares=$10. If NITE hit $5 by then you'd make 25x your money. If nite went bust you'd make $750 per option, for only putting up $10.
I can't wait to load up on those when I get paid.
Cool, SPNG Stain Removing pen.
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Green Bridge Industries, Inc.'s ZAP(TM) Product Featured at Super Bowl XLIV Sanctioned Player Networking Event(TM)
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Comtex RIDGEWOOD, N.J., Feb 04, 2010 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ ---- Green Bridge Industries, Inc. (Pink Sheets: GRBG) is pleased to announce that the Company's ZAP(TM) Stain Remover Pen and Zapspray On-The-Go Sanitizing Spray Pen will be included as feature products in the VIP bags for the 10th annual Player Networking Event(TM) (PNE), a sanctioned NFL Super Bowl event, hosted by Troupe 21 & Associates. The 2010 event is being held at the Hyatt Regency Miami, Florida on Saturday, February 6, 2010 from 2:00pm to 6:00pm. The Company's product will be presented to over 250 active and former NFL players, sports media, family members of NFL players, and sports industry executives. The event is sponsored by Marvel Entertainment, Bank of America, Wells Fargo Advisors, and 3D Eye Solutions, amongst others.
The Player Networking Event(TM), created by Troupe 21 & Associates, helps active and former NFL players with their transition from football. Each year active and former players attend the PNE to network with business executives and corporations. Working collaboratively with the NFL and its member clubs, their goal is to help players explore and identify post-football opportunities that are realistic and meaningful. Approximately 13,000 former players are part of the NFLPA (players union) and NFL Alumni clubs.
"We are excited about the opportunity to promote our ZAP(TM) line of product with NFL personnel, sports industry executives, and members of sports media within the backdrop of the Super Bowl," stated David Gubb, CEO of Green Bridge Industries, Inc. "The PNE is an important part of the post season player development strategy, and we feel that our products provide a great co-branding opportunity for the athletes."
About Green Bridge Industries, Inc.:
Green Bridge Industries, Inc. offers non-toxic, environmentally friendly cleaning products to fit the sanitation needs of the medical, agricultural, military, and retail markets. The Company, through its proprietary technology, has the ability to develop bio-renewable alternative cleaning products, which are superior to the synthetic products currently offered in the marketplace. The Company's products are safe for the surfaces it cleans, the environment, animals and humans. For more information on Green Bridge Industries, visit: www.greenbridgeindustries.com.
Safe Harbor Act:
This release includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involves risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products, the ability to meet customer demand, the ability to manage growth, acquisitions of technology, equipment, or human resources, the effect of economic business conditions, and the ability to attract and retain skilled personnel. The Company is not obligated to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this release.
Contacts:
Green Bridge Industries, Inc.
www.greenbridgeindustries.com
Investor Relations
407-389-5900
QUESTION FOR LONGS IN NITE.
How does it make you feel that the CEO dumped almost $800,000 wroth of stock on you bagholders last week up at 15.84? He already saved himself 5% on $800,000; $40,000.
Factor in his sales of almost a million dollars worth of stock back on December 31st and hes sitting pretty isn't he?
Wow, look at some of these other sales!!! While yes, they had "acquisitions", it appears those are nothing more than employ stock plans. You can see how anxious these guys are to dump the stock they just got on the retail chumps.
When insiders are dumping this amount of stock, never a good sign.
Within 1 year I predict this company filing for bankruptcy.
Good Riddance!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=NITE
but odd are his adjustments in parlux that have been back to back with SPNG's. Seems to do equal proportion. Same exact day.
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000802356&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
I meant conflict with Sith Lord. Besides, a little grey never hurt anyone...I think....I hope....I pray
Great post, thank you. Person mark.
Why couldn't pike transfer from one fund to the other, without having to pay commission or even submit the quote? Its not a trade as much as a transfer.
Regardless, my broker charges me a dollar for trades on the pinks. Lets assume pikes broker is 2x more expensive than my broker, we talking $4 dollars?
Man I guess when you own 160M shares as a fund, $4 is kinda a lot of money, huh?
This is real bearish news, I think I’m going to dump on the opening bell tomorrow.
Thanks.
Like this actually,
https://www.otcbb.com/asp/tradeact_mv.asp?SearchBy=issue&Issue=SPNG&SortBy=volume&Month=1-1-2010&IMAGE1.x=15&IMAGE1.y=10
Notice, 55% of volume=NITE.
Wow, SPNG listed on a total of 4 other european exchanges. I only thought it was one, but its actually 4. Thats how these naked shorts hide alot of the shorts, very interesting. On the berlin exchange, first trade in over a year was last week.
Berlin,
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=KBT.BE
All others,
http://finance.yahoo.com/lookup?s=spongetech
Funny, Notice the authors.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/item_YdKR68jYpEiYo8jwukDfjP
There are just to many, LOL
Indeed it is.
I have also verified, through some fairly high level contacts, that SPNG products absolutely will NOT ever be in either Target or Walmart. They are not now, weren't in the past and will not be in the future in either of those stores.
The only thing sweeter than getting paid on one of their naked short postions blowing up, is going to watch this company itself blow up.
YA BABY, NITE TO ZERO
Man, I started writing my naked shorting piece on SPNG. I'm probably only half way done and I’m 4 pages in, single spaced. Crazy all the connections. The reporters, the naked short advocates, the market makers, the Market makers connections to the hedge funds. Wild stuff.
I look forward to sharing it. I also am trying to make it as easy as possible to understand, so that when this thing finally does explode, and perhaps people in Congress or legitimate news reporters want to follow the story, they can understand it.
Things like the players, their minions, the reporters, the German exchange SPNG listing, PIPE, things dubbed “spongetech debacle”, are all to familiar to a handful of other companies battle with naked shorts.
Gee, you think naked shorting has anything to do with that?
It is my understanding that while we are on the greys, since we are not traded on an exchange, but rather traded among broker dealers, we do not have to file.
CEO MORE DUMPING!!!! It appears the CEO of NITE is selling everything he just recieved!!!
Go through some of these 4's, doesn't seem like strong desire for MGMT to keep anything they recieved from the Equity Incentive Plan. RED FLAG!!!
http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001060749&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
SNAP!!! Thank you!
SPNG in walmart, HUGE.
Now we can pick and chose what PR to believe? For example we can say that a PR about pink panther and Dora are nonsense, then claim a PR from the company confirming walmart while the SEC is watching is legit? LOL
I like how every sponge they PR now "will be in production" LOL. Boy SPNG management really must need to keep selling shares. The "we don't have it yet, but we will," PR LOL sort of like the FILINGS.
Thats why i would like to see the FACTS not what spongites SAY the facts are :) While the SEC is watching i know management won't put out a PR of lies.... so I'm waiting to hear the details. I guess if we get no PR i have my answer :)
Right, I mean does anything else really matter? If we had a PR on it naked short advocates would try to spin it any way they could. In the end SPNG has reached the ultimate retailer, WALMART BABY
Can you please provide me a link where it says that a company trading on the greys has to file?
At the moment, on the greys, they are not required to file anything.
spng is still a reporting company and is required to file ALL reports .. that has been proven 100% without a doubt
We are sold in walmart, does anything else matter? I'm not going to even engage in any attempt to spin the walmart news.
You can't better than walmart for a product like this, and IMO we reached the finish line interms of product expansion. The rest of the retailers I'm sure will follow, but they are peanuts compared to walmart.