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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Wow... Looks like we are in for another drop this morning too. The futures are tanking.
Gold Basket up 9.25% with 3 X_Dev Sells so far:
These numbers represent the performance from the date the positions were opened. The X_Dev performance is different as X_Dev is cashing in on the movers now:
Thanks Myst.. got it. Can anyone find a Bullish Percent chart for the goldies?
WHT --- Nice run!!!
My little Gold X_Dev basket gained 6% today... what a pretty picture:
Looks like there may be more downside to the goldies unless there is a channel break:
Yeppers kedew, I have been in WHT about that long.
Sun Microsystems had some baaaaad news. I wonder how that will affect the market tomorrow?
X_Dev made me some coin today!!!!
Hi Mike, I am still using the same setup that is pictured on the home page. I am not trading it right now and was just commenting on the nice day it had yesterday. The last X_Dev buy signal would have been a profitable one.
ECGI rockin & rollin again.
Nice find Myst, I am still bullish on gold for the longer term. I thought now was a good time to start an X_Dev port again since the gold indexes have made a nice bounce off a couple X_Dev buy signals. I am looking to enter partial positions and X-Dev them from there using that basket calculator system as my stop loss protection.
I am going to start a golden X_Dev basket including GSS. It's on my list of things to do tomorrow.
Here is one of my favorite edifying quotes:
"Do not follow where the path may lead, Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
You got that right Myst!!!!!!
MystPicks up OVER 200% and the year isn't over yet!!!
Hahhahahha, I liked that analogy. heheheh
Paul, everthing on our end says your good to go. Try it again and let me know if your ok.
Hi Paul and welcome aboard!!!
I'm about to pay for a 1 month membership to VestorAnalytics, for $48. When I go to paypal, it says it will automatically renew each month. If I decide to go to a 1 year membership. Will I need to cancel first?
Yes, you will need to cancel the first subscription and then sign-up again for the yearly subscription. PayPal is not capable of handling those kinds of changes yet.
Also, you had once mentioned that a vectoranalytics membership was the same as a stockwerld gold membership, allowing me access to both sites. True?
vestorAnalytics opens a portal to the stockwerldgold site. What this means is the username & password you already have at vestoranalytics will allow you to access stockwerldgold through the "vestorGold links" on the vestorAnalytics site. To upgrade you would click on the "Account Mgr." link at vestorAnalytics and select the subscription you desire.
If you have any other questions don't hesitate to ask.
Risk Management with X_Dev....
So far we have discussed two risk management techniques for use with X_Dev, the 50 day EMA stop and the 3 day rule. I would like to offer a 3rd technique that I am going to test with my next X_Dev gold port.
The basis for my technique was developed from some data I found on a friends web site.
He said:
How Many Stocks to Hold?
In "Spread Your Risk," I talked about portfolio diversification to limit your maximum exposure on any single stock. When I went long, I bought only five stocks. The reason I did this is that in backtesting, purchasing five stocks instead of ten almost always gives better performance, whether long or short. Simple enough. Who doesn't want better performance?
Since I entered the longs, I have experienced a sense of discomfort over the fact that I only had five positions. I am well aware that backtesting has proven that five stocks will perform better than ten, but the fact is that a five-stock portfolio produces 20% risk in each stock held versus 10% in a 10-stock portfolio. It proved too much for me. So I have added two Zoomers to my Monday purchases for a total of seven stocks. This gives me a maximum of 14% exposure on a single position. I feel much better now. Many of you know that my "stop loss" point on a Zoomer is 30% below my purchase price. On a 10-stock portfolio, this produces a maximum risk of three percent per position. This figure would double on a five-stock portfolio to six percent. With a seven-stock portfolio, I am at 4.2 percent maximum exposure.
Each trader has to determine for him/herself what is an appropriate risk level and trade accordingly. I would not hold fewer than five stocks at any one time. Research has shown once you hold in excess of about twelve positions, the reduction in exposure with each additional stock is insignificant. Zach Smith ZMS Issue Date: January 7, 2003
With this information we know that we can take the first step in managing risk by holding 7 to 12 stocks at any one time. I am sure anyone can debate this claim with knowledge I don't yet have so just use the basics of this information to understand the technique and them we can improve it from there.
Now I needed a way to incorporate X_Dev into the equation and based on Zach's comments each of the 7 to 10 X_Dev plays would require the same starting cash amount and the same stop loss percentage. The starting cash amount was easy but the stop loss amount was still an issue. I could not use the 50 day EMA rule as the stop loss would surely vary from a percentage standpoint on each stock. The same was also true of the 3 day rule. The only way to guarantee consistant risk management would be to set the same stop loss percentage for each stock at the point it went to "All Stock & No Cash" in the X_Dev portfolio manager.
With this in mind I decided to program a spread sheet to help users with this strategy. Personally I would love to see it incorporated into the X_Dev portfolio manager (hint..hint), but for now I will use two tools to manage the technique.
When one of the stocks in the basket goes to "All Stock & No Cash" you need to enter your average cost as the purchase price in the calculator. The calculator will determine your stop loss amount based on your level of risk. If the stock turns up from there and you hit a sell signal then you would remove the stop loss and continue X_dev'ing the play until the stock went to "All Stock & No Cash" again. You would continue this process on the entire basket thus maintaining consistant risk exposure
Below are the are two calculators, one for users who have Microsoft Excel 2002 or greater which includes 15 min delayed quotes, and one version for those who have earlier versions. The earlier version requires manually inputing the stocks closing price to finish the calculations. It also tracks buy & hold profit/loss so you can compare it to your X_Dev results. I also included a special thanks for Zach, to show my appreciation in answering my questions and reviewing my work.
Feel free to download them and open discussions on the message board.
I also want to thank Myst & Zach for an education I could not find in any book. There is still a long way to go...
Basket Trade Calculator for Microsoft Excel 2002 and up
Includes a 10 stock basket trade calculator with 15 min delayed quotes and risk management guidelines.
http://www.vestoranalytics.com/vestorBoard/index.php?showforum=21
Basket Trade Calculator for all versions of Microsoft Excel
Includes a 10 stock basket trade calculator including risk management guidelines.
http://www.vestoranalytics.com/vestorBoard/index.php?showforum=22
By the way Myst, Zach is a daily visitor of stockwerd.com :o)
Hope you all like it.
You da man!!!! I'll get the banner update this weekend, still gota add a futures trading site, options trading site and forex trading site to vestorGear.
Lots of FREE stuff including a copy of X_Dev
http://www.vestoranalytics.com/vestorgearsfpublic.php
Yep, sure did.. I cashed out yesterday, thank goodness!!!
I wonder if today's jobless data will help the market find some direction?
The vectorVest Industry and Sector ratings continue to move lower with Retail as the leading industry and Mining as the leading sector.
How about some fun while you wait for X_Dev buy and sell signals.
In the near future I will be adding a stock recommendation section to vestorAnalytics that is similar to clearstation. There will be a few differences though, one of the interesting concepts that I am working on is a vestorCash currency system. To trade stock (make recommendations) you will need to have cash just like in real life (interesting concept huh!!! hahahah). The way you earn cash will be through posting new discussion topics, replying to posts and starting topic polls. Once you earn enough vestorCash you can recommend stocks using the currency you have earned. If your trade goes south so does your cash. If your trade is successful then you get to keep your earnings as additional vestorCash. The stock recommendation system is still a ways off but you can start earning vestorCash now.
Also I will be setting up a store where you can spend your vestorCash on items like:
Elliott Wave Books,
Pro Online Trader DVD's,
T-Shirts,
and more....
Hopefully I will be able to even add the option to purchase trial subscriptions to certain pay sites in the near future.
......actually I am sure I can :o)....
Right now the currency system is in place and you can start earning vestorCash NOW!!!!
Oh.. one other thing, if your of good heart and someone is struggling you have the option to give away your hard earned vestorCash via donations. You can give me some if you want :o).
To check out some of the vestorCash options all your need to do is log in and then click on "My Controls" from the vestorBoard page. You will be taken to your personal control panel where you will find a new section called "Currency Options" where you can donate vestorCash, view your donation receipts and view the currencies statistics for the site.
Check it out!!!!!!!!
No new buy signals on the goldies today.. Looks like next week for sure.
It's possible we could close in the green. We finished a 5 wave down trend to end at the lows and the ABC retrace could hit it's first fib line (38.2%) around 1330 on the $NDX which is above the open.
Gold Watch updated including the new Elliott Wave charts.
Nice short setups in the making... I wonder if we get a bounce up tommorow or just continue the drop.
Lots of buy signals hitting in the goldies.
Sold EMA @ $1.88.... Myst, you rock!!!!!
Interactive brokers rocks too....
Maybe we can get it next time. The Elliott Wave guys are calling for an ABC retrace to the upside before we continue down in the shorter term counts.
vestorAnalytics now has PROFESSIONAL Elliott Wave analysis of the gold markets. You can find the charts on the Gold Watch page.
Myst, did you catch the QQQ trade? I had my order in but according to my streamer it never went that high but now stockcharts.com says it went even higher?
That werks for me.. I sold in premarket and made some coin. :o)
Nobody got hurt I hope?
Did something change since this last post?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1364938
Is it a time frame thing I am missing?
Another financial play:
FNF looks to pull back some more although it bounced off support real well today. It also has a good VV rating.
Anyone track the SPDR's?
Here is the financials SPDR. The weekly chart looks good too.
The brokers are set to release earnings this week. The news says that the positive earnings are already factored into the price and they expect a sell off. Hmmmm, anything can happen... but maybe I should look at the chart upside down?
Any thoughts?
As Clint Eastwood would say:
You feel'in lucky punk?
EELN setup for a MACD/Stoc "V" signal tomorrow. Keep your eyes peeled.