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del
someone posted a link, I'll read it
2865
Hey Jim...no, the consolidation continues, but it's coming IMO.
I think we do rise here in one of two ways...I think we're either at comp 2150 by april 1st, pause/correct for a few days then explode over 2300 by late april.
Or, we explode over 2300 now, as in straight up, over the next 7-10 days...then consolidate again for a few weeks.
This thing is dragging out about as long as it can...yes, I was hoping we'd explode up by now, but it's still struggling along. I'm also not at all in the camp that thinks april proves to be some significant top. Once we're at 11750 on the dow, and 2400-2500 on the comp in the next couple months, then we should pause for some period of time IMO.
This is getting tricky at the moment but I'm just sticking with the idea that this drop and consolidation, even if it goes a bit further, is the last buying opp of the year.
I think the sox is about to see a massive upward explosion... 15-20% within weeks.
All JMO of course.
del
PT, what about that move without the drop...like 10% next week?
Yeah, sounds good, 1650-1700 in a week.
How about the moonshot now Jim...looks real good to me. 2300 comp in a week...yep, now that's a real moonshot <g>.
So Tea, bullish or bearish IT and LT now?
Since the dow had an oct low, and the s&p and aug low, I thought the labeling may be a bit different. Ok though.
jj, what's your count on the dow?
TIA
You must not like this right...doesn't this mean you're bearish LT now? If it sticks I mean.
Wouldn't be the first time a stock drops after upping guidance...it's up 23% in a month. This is another one that will be good to look back on in 6 months.
I saw that, at exactly the same time nvls is raising guidance in their mid quarter update. Amazing how well these guys know what's going on.
Your fish hooks hooked again...bullish? <g>
Right, that is par for the course. But we're not just talking about an upgrade or downgrade. How about the specific comments about the industry...it was quite a clear message from them just months ago that this was a huge inventory problem, and that 2005 would not be good for the semis because of it. Now just months later they're making positive comments with regards to lower inventory, expanding margins, etc. It does make some sense that not only the downgrades, but the comments about the industry were bs, or like I said, they're just a bunch of idiots.
LOL...good one, I agree <g>.
So is your opinion that the analysts were really that clueless regarding the semis and the inventory issues?
Maybe they are...several months ago they were downgrading across the board due to inventory issues...now they're upgrading with the sox up 25% saying inventory is fine and they're in for good growth and expanding margins.
So they either screwed the public as wahz said, or they're a bunch of idiots.
I know what you meant <g>....I just wanted to point out that the tran really has no signs of a LT top on the monthly as of yet, so IMO, it's a bit early to be using the indu/tran divergence theory. It wasn't really a direct response to your post, just a general comment since quite a few posters are already saying it's topped and using that as a signal. Maybe not dead yet <g>.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TRAN,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dd][pc200!c50!c20!c13!b200!b50!d20....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$TRAN,uu[g,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20051022][pc200!c50!c20!...
There's really nothing yet to suggest that the tran has put in a long term top anyway...could easily put in a new high in the coming months and invalidate the whole indu/tran argument for now.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$tran,uu[g,a]maclyyay[d19900101,20051022][pc200!c50!c20!...
Hey Jim, this COD is different than your momentum high right? Your momentum highs run 20+ weeks top to top, and the last one was in late Nov, so this COD is not that if I understand correctly. These COD's have in the past sometimes led to very short term turns, even for a day, whereas your market momentum highs typically last for a longer period of time...am I understanding this correctly?
TIA
ok, when you said "neg implications IT" from a sign on your monthly chart, I was thinking you might mean longer term than a few weeks, which didn't seem to go with a comp rocketing after mar 11th. Thanks.
tea, just for clarification, a break out on your sox monthly would be quite bullish, and bearish otherwise. But continued strength in the comp now would be bearish. How do you reconcile the two? If you think this sox move is fake and it has neg implications IT, how do you think the comp rockets on mar 11th without the sox? Or is IT just until mar 11th? TIA
edit: seems like you'd want a strong sox thru monday (the end of the month) to breakout there, then a drop on the comp into mar 11th with the sox maintaining it's strength...is this right? That would support the strong comp you want going forward correct?
Posted by: teaparty
In reply to: None
Date:2/17/2005 9:27:18 AM
Post #of 43338
Just a look at the SOX monthly if anyone is interested. A monthly close above would be quite bullish.......however..I personally think we have seen a fake poke and could have some negative implications IT. My wife is heart broken by the way. Covered rest of bond short at 114^21
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SOX,uu[w,a]macayiay[d20021001,20051231][pb10!b40!b80!b2....
7:05AM Ciena reports in-line; guides Q2 revs above consensus (CIEN) 2.75: Reports Q1 (Jan) loss of $0.05 per share, in-line with the Reuters Estimates consensus of ($0.05); revenues rose 42.7% year/year to $94.7 mln vs the $87.7 mln consensus. Company issues upside guidance for Q2 (Apr), sees sequential revenue growth of 5-7% or approx $99.5-101.4 mln, consensus $91 mln.
Thanks LG, that's pretty much what my analysis is saying also.
We may be getting very close to a low here, but then again, we may not...I'll let you know once I've nailed it <g>.
That was good <g>.
As a result of the tech bubble, you can no longer use the word fundamental apparently. But that's what had to happen...remember stocks are overvalued and they will be until the avg PE is 8 <g>.
There definitely seems to be a real need amongst them to tell everyone how right they are...even if it lasts just a few hours or a day...and there never seems to be any mention of the the times those calls go wrong. Let's just see how the next week goes, and more importantly the next 6 months.
I don't really follow that one...sorry.
Could you have been more clear? Is there anywhere in here that you can see that says there's a target sell date of feb 2005? I've just gotta figure out what the point of his bashing your picks is...I mean it's obvious but man it's getting ridiculous.
Posted by: wahz
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 10253
Date:1/6/2004 6:48:30 PM
Post #of 24063
i hate to be a bummer but I suspect, strongly, that the feeling of exhuberance that is being felt here is going to be turned upside down within 5 weeks at the most. I seem to recall that I had at one point felt we would put a string of near record down days together in a row when we hit 2150, for example. SOO, lets be aware that the pendulum, the Short trem one, is going to SWING back
Posted by: wahz
In reply to: None
Date:1/18/2004 12:21:49 PM
Post #of 24063
Everyone:
I don't want to try to time here, and I want to discourage timers here, drive them away now, and I don't know whether it even makes sense for us to try to time because its all about the stock picks.
Real world example: I felt the same way in mid Nov, and suffered about a 25% drop on our list, before this recent surge. Net, I think the market has been up about 12% from the oct peak, while I have beaten that by about 7x. That's even better than the usual 4-5x goal in a bull, and it included neng and that 25% drop being waded through. adding to neng hasn't hurt my return much, but it did draw money that would have gone into amcc and avnx primarily
HOWEVER, I just don't see a way around an index correction starting soon. Maybe now, maybe at a Feb peak. And I don't see a way around it being a few months long. the table is really set for it, on everything I look at.
So handle it the way you want. Let me give broad guidelines: The nas should correct 10-15%. The ndx 12-18%. These are intraday. The high should be beween now and the last day of February. The low should be between April 1 and the end of August. the low should be tested several times, but it may not seem obvious until later. Then the comp should go from under 2000, all the way to 3000 in early 06. Our telco equips should be spitting out .25 q by then, and amcc may be threatening 40, not only because it will make sense on an e basis, but because its going to APPEAR that it won't be ending soon
But, I wish I knew what the picks would do over the next 6 month. We underperformed in the early winter drop and then exploded. If that happens again, it would be best to be a great trader. It could be like that again, but it may be that everyone will think that and they never quite drop to where the ta boys want. (Now before folks who follow ta boys on si and ihub get upset, I am talking about institutional ta boys, who make the sheeple do what they do.)
I was an idiot about 3 weeks ago is all. A few folks pointed out to me that I was getting slammed on a couple other threads. Now, it looks like a picked up a couple bookmarks again for the first in a month...this has been a terrible sign before.
I have stopped adding on margin. I may trim some. i will be looking to buy the first pull back because the retests won't go much lower that the first drop, and because its gonna look idiot when you look at the fact that you missed amcc at 6 because you were waiting for 5.50,a nd it goes to 30
Why don't you just ban him already? The guy has a complete lack of respect for the board as shown with posts like this today. You've called the market action better than anyone on ihub for 3 years now, and recommended many stocks in 02 and 03 that were up many times into early 04. You clearly stated in jan 04 that we could be in for a 3 to possibly 12 month correction and for people to play it how they wanted but said that you had more funds to avg down if necessary. How much more info is necessary for god's sake? The picks were made a long time ago from much lower prices in some cases and intended as a hold until late in the decade, and he thinks the board cares about every 10 cent move 10 times a day...give me a break, get rid of him already...that is clearly not the purpose of the board.
Posted by: sylvester80
In reply to: None
Date:2/15/2005 4:08:10 PM
Post #of 24062
Anyone who was long any or all of HLIT,NENG,SONS,CSCO,JNPR,CIEN,DDDC,LU,NT,NOK,ERICY,QCOM,GLW got killed today on a big up day at that. Hmmm.... for some reason they are all telecoms... and most are in wahz's Wolfpack. Should we be calling them some other name by now? <ng>
Yes it would...regardless, it's trading at 2X cash here and IMO is a great buying opp IF one was willing to hold it a while.
I like the way pmcs is developing too.
klac has an awesome inv h&s...just trying to break out.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=KLAC,uu[e,a]daclyyay[d20030105,20051205][pc200!c50!d20,2...
I think I read the same 4 and I see them everywhere...they don't have to be in the form of index targets, but all the people saying how bad the consumer situation is, housing bubble, etc...in general I think it's very obvious there are many more people bearish on the overall economic outlook.
And really, zeev has got everyone on his board set up to believe we peak in another 3 weeks and then the crash starts, and he's about as bullish as it gets other than the "superbulls" <g>, and that's not really bullish calling for a recession, bear market, etc for the rest of 05...I see a good number of posts everyday asking him if he's sure the peak's not already in because everything looks so bad.
I get the same consensus from people at work too...that they don't expect anything out of the stock market.
I saw you added that...it's not even directed at anyone...it was a general statement. Are we adults or what, I think bad words can be tolerated amongst adults right <g>. Are you really that pc syl?
I just did a search on your name and the words fuck, ass, and asshole and got probably 75 posts...now I don't care if they weren't your words or if they were, but if you're posting things that contain such language on a public board, you can't possibly have a problem with people making general comments with such words in them.
I didn't see him call anyone an ahole...where was that? I thought you just didn't like this since it's what you responded to...you called this too much flag waving no?
Posted by: wahz
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 22454 Date:1/12/2005 11:47:16 AM
Post #of 22655
this is going to be a real beauty...I swear this is the greatest set up I have ever seen...my skin is crawling
edit: see your link now, was that a general statement or directed at someone?
But the bullish posts just need to be toned down such that you're ok with them or what?...sheesh to you too <g>.
Oh come on...these boards are filled with disastrous projections for the death of the US economy and stock markets, someone's got to balance it out <g>.
Seriously though, we've got about 10 people on ihub that are superbullish, and hundreds if not thousands shoving "bad" news in our faces everyday calling for the bear to resume right away...you can see why it might be good to have someone excited for the bullish side.
Honestly I browse the boards on a regular basis just to get an idea of what people are thinking, and I have to say there are hundreds of people saying the same things about the bad consumer situation, real estate, stock valuations etc....
So it really was a general statement.
You think this was directed at you...it was a general statement. You're not the only bear around, lots of 'em have come out the past week...but whatever, think what you want.
edit: just to be clear, if something is meant for you, I'll respond to one of your posts.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 22509
Date:1/12/2005 4:52:11 PM
Post #of 22529
aapl just blew away estimates...0.70 vs 0.48.
So now we've had aapl, intc, qlgc, elx, lsi, ntap a month ago...all kill estimates and/or raise guidance...doesn't seem like things are all that bad.
Let me guess though, someone will respond that even these numbers can't support the high valuations <ggg>. We'll see.
I wish I owned it, one of the best performers for quite a while now.
edit: BTW, I don't get it, if consumers haven't got any money left to spend, how the hell is aapl making all this money...or does that consumer problem start now <g>.
aapl just blew away estimates...0.70 vs 0.48.
So now we've had aapl, intc, qlgc, elx, lsi, ntap a month ago...all kill estimates and/or raise guidance...doesn't seem like things are all that bad.
Let me guess though, someone will respond that even these numbers can't support the high valuations <ggg>. We'll see.
Hey, that's what my wife calls me <ggg>.