Could you have been more clear? Is there anywhere in here that you can see that says there's a target sell date of feb 2005? I've just gotta figure out what the point of his bashing your picks is...I mean it's obvious but man it's getting ridiculous.
Posted by: wahz
In reply to: wahz who wrote msg# 10253
Date:1/6/2004 6:48:30 PM
Post #of 24063
i hate to be a bummer but I suspect, strongly, that the feeling of exhuberance that is being felt here is going to be turned upside down within 5 weeks at the most. I seem to recall that I had at one point felt we would put a string of near record down days together in a row when we hit 2150, for example. SOO, lets be aware that the pendulum, the Short trem one, is going to SWING back
Posted by: wahz
In reply to: None
Date:1/18/2004 12:21:49 PM
Post #of 24063
Everyone:
I don't want to try to time here, and I want to discourage timers here, drive them away now, and I don't know whether it even makes sense for us to try to time because its all about the stock picks.
Real world example: I felt the same way in mid Nov, and suffered about a 25% drop on our list, before this recent surge. Net, I think the market has been up about 12% from the oct peak, while I have beaten that by about 7x. That's even better than the usual 4-5x goal in a bull, and it included neng and that 25% drop being waded through. adding to neng hasn't hurt my return much, but it did draw money that would have gone into amcc and avnx primarily
HOWEVER, I just don't see a way around an index correction starting soon. Maybe now, maybe at a Feb peak. And I don't see a way around it being a few months long. the table is really set for it, on everything I look at.
So handle it the way you want. Let me give broad guidelines: The nas should correct 10-15%. The ndx 12-18%. These are intraday. The high should be beween now and the last day of February. The low should be between April 1 and the end of August. the low should be tested several times, but it may not seem obvious until later. Then the comp should go from under 2000, all the way to 3000 in early 06. Our telco equips should be spitting out .25 q by then, and amcc may be threatening 40, not only because it will make sense on an e basis, but because its going to APPEAR that it won't be ending soon
But, I wish I knew what the picks would do over the next 6 month. We underperformed in the early winter drop and then exploded. If that happens again, it would be best to be a great trader. It could be like that again, but it may be that everyone will think that and they never quite drop to where the ta boys want. (Now before folks who follow ta boys on si and ihub get upset, I am talking about institutional ta boys, who make the sheeple do what they do.)
I was an idiot about 3 weeks ago is all. A few folks pointed out to me that I was getting slammed on a couple other threads. Now, it looks like a picked up a couple bookmarks again for the first in a month...this has been a terrible sign before.
I have stopped adding on margin. I may trim some. i will be looking to buy the first pull back because the retests won't go much lower that the first drop, and because its gonna look idiot when you look at the fact that you missed amcc at 6 because you were waiting for 5.50,a nd it goes to 30
AI
