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Started partial GDX short again. Light now, but risk/reward ST looks more favorable. I don't think gold is done correcting nor is the general market.
I just wanted to clarify my position as a pt of intellectual honesty. How do you square science and Christianity when they disagree? How old do you think the Universe is? Our solar system? The dinosaurs? Do you think we're alone in the universe?
I'm open to the Bible being correct. I think it's unlikely, but I'm open to it. However, the more I read about it's origins, what books were selected and just religion in general the less I believe it's possible. I probably will get a theology degree or take more classes at some pt as my kids get older. Right now I have a decent general understanding of most major religions, but I would like to learn more.
>> I think the gold and silver etf's are going to disintegrate <<
Many in the gold space share that view. What price POG do you think it'll happen and why? If you don't mind sharing.
I've been buying physical gold from time to time. I'll trade GLD, but won't own LT so I'm on the same page. However I think it'll take significantly higher prices (say 2,000+), but GLD might get blown out of the water or exposed. Right now I'm somewhat split on whether I think GLD has the gold it says it does.
Going to lunch, but quick pt. The Universe is much older closer to 15 to 20 billion years. Our solar system is 4.5-5 billion years old. We're all just star dust. As I don't believe in the bible I'm not offended either. I don't really believe in being "saved" or being "punished" for eternity. Very outdated/old constructs created by men w/no concept of the universe, DNA, Darwin, energy, etc.
Deism will win over all the other religions. Just give it time. Unfortunately I won't be around to see it.
Don't beat yourself up too much. Very difficult market overall. I posted this on SI this morn. My current read:
We hit hit 920 POG, but I'm still not interested yet in adding back more. Gen. markets likely a bit higher ST due to oversold nature, but after looks like more downside coming. Gold and gold stocks have been trading more in synch w/gen markets of late and it appears we're in another liquidation cycle. I sold more of my core issues today as well to raise a bit more cash. About 10% gold stocks here as my core. Have some physical as well. Was going to add here, but want to see how gold handles the next 20-30 down. Critical area. I'll likely be adding back some gen market shorts tomorrow if we're higher again. Right now risk/reward is too equal ST.
Biggest problem w/the gold stocks is the earnings are just not there. They might be eventually, but this Q was nothing to get excited about and we had much lower energy prices. Too many secondaries as well. I wonder what a GDX chart would look like over the years if you factored in all the new shares?
GE in crash mode is pretty ominous for almost everything ST.
I like gold as an asset class going forward over the next few years I'm just not in love (yet). I think it's going to take several asset classes to survive the storm.
Most religious folks would take offense at my comments. You must have a fairly open mind and thick skin. I'm more of a Deist myself so I think organized religion is somewhat bunk, but do believe there's something. Just not sure what. Deism combines spirituality AND science. Many of the founding fathers were Deists. I think 2000 years from now the majority of people (if they believe) will be deist vs any specific religion. Just a hunch.
I believe in the age of the cosmos and the earth. In my mind it doesn't make any sense that if man is so important we came onto the scene 4.5 billion years later. Not to mention we're a mere spec in the cosmos. Now you can say that time is relative, but that line of thinking is pre-Copernican in my mind w/respect to man's roll in the Universe.
I blame Greenspan first and foremost for the current crisis, but I also think Religious Right should get a fair bit of blame as well. They put Bush's perceived values above financial conservatism which is in itself a "value". How much harm is being done to all those who's retirements have been wiped out? Reps have lost their way. I doubt Dems will ever be truly financially conservative so it's up to Reps or a new party. I suspect it's going to take a new party.
Repudiation of God? We tried it your way electing Bush twice. We need to stop rejecting rational thought in favor of emotion, religion, and "values".
I covered gdx prior to my trip, but kept sds until today. No shorts right now. Will be home tonight
Covered shorts this morn. We may go lower st, but I think a test of the breakdown area 740 spx is an even bet or better. Looking to add back shorts on bounces. Vix
showing no it bottom
Deer valley having a beer. Only thing missing is fresh snow
GE cutting dividend apparently enough to put a floor under the market ST. Next 48 hrs will be interesting. Think it's temp, nothing more.
Now that's impressive. I've gone into it, but nothing remotely impressive. I like too many other things to hurt myself skiiing. Plus at our ages once you get hurt you never heal the same. I want to be skiing when I'm in my 70's. 38 currently.
Shorted some GDX at HUI 292 here. Like the risk/reward very ST and a partial hedge to existing mid cap positions. Maybe only downside to 285-280 not sure. I'll take anything.
Thanks. Will check when I more time. Leaving in about 3 hours. If you don't hear back from me I hit a tree.
Long? Short? I wish you'd make up your mind. My portfolio can't take this whipsawing. And you call yourself a guru?
Going on a skip trip. Will be lurking, but it's kinda a pain posting from an iphone so I'll be doing less. Pray for powder (UT bound, Park City). First time there, but long time skier.
Tempted to get short something here to hedge existing long positions, but holding off for now. Interesting that long term rates are up today w/markets hitting fresh 52 week lows. US credit revulsion? Will probably sell remaining TBT. Should get one more panic push into treasuries over the next few weeks. Wait for fireworks.
edit, picked up some SDS right now. Partial position. Fresh lows should beget more lows over the next few days.
Going to run some errands soon. Didn't want to the bother to log into multiple accts to trade. Part broad market view/part laziness. The 15 min channel is still intact.
(edit) I started about 1 year earlier. Part time maybe 2 years earlier if you count using a broker and laddering CDs. First it was $12 oil for me, then $250 gold, then hit RRI sub $2 along w/a few other utils and then back to gold. Eventually I want to make my way back to oil again on the long side. This gold volatility kills the nerves. Sly was helpful bringing gold to my attention at 250-300 range. Oil was a little easier to make the case for. Without those two mega moves I doubt I'd be trading full-time today.
See edited post. I've dumped it all but in 1 acct now. I've been trading about 12 years now, but full-time probably only 5-6. I think you've been trading longer, not sure. As for breaks I've definately increased the wine consumption among other things over the past year.
I took the profits on DZZ and short on GDX this morn, but didn't do any PPT w/GE. I knew I'd regret it. Getting ready to pull the plug soon unless the market kicks it up a notch. Even if GE got cut in half my portfolio wouldn't get hit that much so I wasn't losing too much sleep. These days I usually risk far less capital on ST trades.
Lucky or good? Can I have both? GE still in channel (for now).
Dumped almost all of it now. Probably should be more patient.
(edit) GE hitting top of 15 min channel at 9.65ish. Tempted to take partial profits, but I think this will turn into a decent multi-day trade. Looks like 10.5 is more likely than 11, but we'll see.
Was hoping for a deeper dip in gold at the open. Now I'm left wondering what to do. Will probably do the ppt thing (partial profit taking).
Looks like I'll remove my gold hedges shortly after the open. Usually we get some sort of bounce. I'll then determine if I want them back on at that pt. Take profits first, ask questions later.
Bars are probably just fine. They are still small overall. I might go that route w/my next purchase. I do think it's good to have both. Trading might require smaller denominations. (I hope it doesn't come to that). However, given where gold is going it's probably no biggie to overpay w/the coins. I can tolerate 5-6%. Much more and I'll probably do the bars or goldmoney.com etc.
GE comparison
Again just a ST trade. Overdone ST, but IT possible that it goes lower. Volume starting to increase to potential for bounce here and a decent one % wise, but no guarantee of course.
I count five clear waves down on the weekly. But not sure if the 5th is done. Guessing a bit more, but I think this is a decent entry here w/a relatively tight stop. Daily looks like the 5th could be complete, but as always they could extend. Need to do more FA work tonight.
So far premiums have not gone back up from their recent fall peak
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
Tracking the premiums on GTU/CEF is all good, but I think we enter the next phase of the gold bull when the physical premiums go back up near their highs (approx 10% for gold on this site). Till then I'm more in trading mode or until gold crosses 1K again.
Haven't decided how much if any I'm going to buy if gold stocks are down tomorrow. At the least I'll likely cover my hedges (probably too early).
We all know it. We usually know what works best w/our personalities at this pt. Executing your plan and sticking w/it is another matter. Try training someone new and you really appreciate how far you've come. I tried training my brother (1 day per week for about a year). Afterwords he was a hell of a monday morn. quarterback, but he's never made a trade in his life. Absolutely NO appreciation whatsoever for what it takes (for 1 year, 5 years, 10 years plus). If I gain about 50% more on an after-tax basis I'm pulling my kids private school money for the next 10+ years. One less thing to worry about. I always believe that in this bus. everyone eventually falls on their ass. But if you continually take money off the table you don't fall as far.
Sorry, I've been drinking a bit. Rambling?
If you focus more on the last 6 months you can see that GE outperformed to the downside. I don't see how the SPY can bounce here w/out GE outperforming at least ST to the upside. Again we'll find out tomorrow. I can see GE lower from here, but not without some sort of bounce. Part hunch, part TA.
I didn't take off the DZZ hedge yet. I think there's more to go at this pt. Looking for 920-930 POG. However, in this market is hard not to take profits 100% of the time when seen on a quick intra-day basis. We'll see if it works. Underwater on GE already, but thankfully didn't put too much capital up. Will probably stop out at 8.5 ish if seen.
I haven't spent a lot of time w/it. Thought the SPY had more ST upside before petering out. I may be wrong here. Will find out real quick tomorrow. I do think GE will outperform the SPY for the next 1-3 months. Beyond that hard to say. Better hedge would be to go long GE and short SPY in equal amounts. Might do that trade...hmmm. Right now small $$ wise trade as my confidence and time frame are both shorter. DZZ worked nicely though. TD had some GDX for shorting as well.
I think GE is leading the SPY here. It's already made a lower low from Nov and is now bouncing.
(edit) Bought GE today. First time in my life I think. Probably just a 1-3 day trade, but who knows. Low memory on comp. so can't display chart, but probably 11 is the ST target.
Long some DZZ as a partial hedge.
Used bounce today to further lighten in IRA accounts. Here's my current guess ST. Only problem is that I think many are on the same page.
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25442810
OT - I don't like them since they flicker when you dim them. I have dimmers on almost all the lights in my house. Come night time I tend to have most of the house on lower light. Supposedly the make some CFs that you can dim, but I haven't looked that hard as most of my lighting is can lighting.
>> IAC: I stopped out of everything after the first 30-minutes - 100% cash. <<
Would be nice to only have my own acct to worry about. Have too many shares across too many accounts, but at least I was down to a core position (approx 20% or less) in many accounts after being 50%+ in many. Was a very good few months while it lasted. Going to see where things end up today as I may do more selling. You're right on gold as insurance here. Also you had the momentum crowd w/Cramer and I'm sure the shorts helped accelerate the decline. Shorted some GDX in 1 account yesterday, but they didn't have shares available thru TD. Didn't grab very much either way, but everything helps. Probably would have sold more but MFN was a late bloomer. Overreaction if $25 can cause this decline in the mid caps. Previously they held up better than their big cap peers, but not today. We'll see where we end up. If the mids don't show more rel. strength today I probably will lighten a bit further. We'll see. I still see the mid. cap producers as the best overall value relative to the risk. Too early for more than handful of the pure spec spec non-producers. If it's an IT top value will mean sh*t.
Gold hourly chart
The hardest thing to do in cases like this it to stick to your plan and be patient. I'm sure I'll be tempted to buy tomorrow if we see another down day, but unless it's a
ST trade it's probably too soon. I know there are a lot of lines here, but I think all are valid presently. Couple of different setups here. If we can hold the 920 area that would be fairly bullish. ST we're somewhat hostage to the broad market.
You don't need to go into specifics. I should have clarified. You never have to go into $$ amounts, just % if you feel like it and I know it's all relative. That's why I said at this pt I was down to a core holding in PMs. For everyone that's different. My core holding will also of course be different at different times (broad market, interest rates, Dollar exchange rates, etc).
MFN had another good close. I'm sure I'll regret every share I sold in the low 6's, high 5's. Still nervous with Geithner and his gang of thieves at the helm and C, BAC finding little support, and lastly w/broad markets close to hitting air pockets.
Those blue lines can be quite useful. MFN provided a good update this morn and still very cheap FA, but I've been doing more selling this morn as I was still overloaded. I think it could go to 7-8 ST, but could still visit below 5 as well. Selling to the pt that I can tolerate 5 again if seen. I'm almost at my core allocation at this pt for PMs. I think we could see a blowoff to 1100-1200+ on this move, but it also appears that 900 plus or minus 20-30 could also be in the cards. I don't want to take myself out as long as there are cheap FA plays to be found.
Originally my plan was to add more physical once gold crossed 950-960, but at this pt I think I'm content to just hold what I have and add if 900-920 or less is seen again. What happens to PMs and gold if new lows are seen on the main indexes by say 5-10%+? That's my concern at this pt along w/big divergences being seen in the large caps relative to gold.
What's your allocation at this pt and what are you think ST? Seems a lot of people are on the same page at this pt sentiment wise. I've seen a number of bulls getting bearish which leads me to believe we blowoff to the upside first.
I'm just looking at the miners relative to gold. They could bust thru, but right now they're indicating a ST top (hopefully not IT). I think we still have more downside in the general market. As such at some pt there will be 1-3 days where everything gets sold including gold and the miners (my guess). I'm still keeping some positions and may even add some small juniors on a sustained break of 1K. But right now I'm more apt to bank profits if the rally continues and then try to reload later.
Picked up an initial trading position of TBT today. Markets falling failing to produce lower yields.
This is also a factor
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=25430112
I need to get going on that Forex acct. Going to pick up 50 to 100% more physical if we get below 950-940 again.
I've been selling my gold miners into strength due to the massive ST divergences seen w/the big caps relative to gold. Still have about 1/2 my MFN from the 4's. Have almost all of my NXG as well and then a few small caps. Broad rally for 1-2 days to relieve oversold condition should set up for good short entry again (so I hope).
Gold mentioned favorably on Cramer and it was the subject of FastMoney as well. I'll continue to sell into rallies here. Test highs on gold and then pullback to 930-950 area? Too textbook? Looking to scale into some shorts today once I see some topping signs on the 1/15 min charts. 805-830 range should cap any upside on the SPX. Usually gaps are good to sell or short into these days.
Big cap golds lagging big time. Taking partial profits on certain mid caps where resistance will probably hold for a few days regardless. Still letting almost all of the MFN run as it's cheap FA and just starting TA wise.
Still find it crazy US Dollars are a safe haven right now. I'll take it though.
Will be looking to add more big caps if/when gold/gold stocks get hit. With gold acting the way it is I'm not sure I'll get much below 20-30% gold stocks in overall portfolio unless gold shows obvious IT topping. Usually I can find value somewhere. Gold could just be going parabolic here.