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TRGD has not enjoyed the previous partnership with PZG.They certainly would not seek the relationship you suggest but that does not mean never.
More rigging of markets in the capitalist USA.Silver futures margin increased.
That will stop silver moving up as fast as it could.But it will not stop the public seeking real silver and gold.Sure,that is only happening a little now.It is certainly going to happen a lot more in the next year or two.I just bought,or rather,order some silver ounce coins in NZ. Delivery,sometime in November.
The main supplier of silver to the public now is the private NZ Mint.They had a previous margin of 16% which was high by world standards. As Matthey Garrett is out of the business in NZ now,the premium is up to 18%.On a coin with 1 ounce of $12 silver,that premium of $2.16 now looks rather a bargain,compared to the over the spot rates now occurring in the USA..I called the NZ Mint,I think it was Tuesday and my contact was a tired man:they had had their busiest day ever;no time for lunch,it was non stop telephone orders and 2 very sore ears.
With silver I think it might pay to have a variety of sizes.Heck,one ounce pieces could be useful for buying with,something 5 kg bars will not normally do for.Oddly,though 1 ounce coins seem to involve,from my perspective,a lot more work-stamping,cellophaning et cetera,they sell at the same mark up as the larger bars.
You know,incompetent govt and corrupt banks and investment banks have made this problem hitting headlines .They will break the dollar,that seems inevitable.Then what?The people that got us,the world of us,into this mess-will offer a solution of a new kind of means of financial transaction.
Would you trust the motive or method of such a group?
Be kind to one another.
What it all comes down to.Oh,a song coming on.(Sorry)
More rigging of markets in the capitalist USA.Silver futures margins upped.(This against a background of the fed literally having to print money soon.it will be impossible to sell the new dedt as bonds.They will have to do a Zimbabwe.)
That will stop silver moving up as fast as it could.But it will not stop the public seeking real silver and gold.Sure,that is only happening a little now.It is certainly going to happen a lot more in the next year or two.
I just bought,or rather,order some silver ounce coins in NZ. Delivery,sometime in November.
The main supplier of silver to the public now is the private NZ Mint..They had a previous margin of 16% which was high by world standards. As Matthey Garrett is out of the business in NZ now,the premium is up to 18%.On a coin with 1 ounce of $12 silver,that premium of $2.16 now looks rather a bargain,compared to the over the spot rates now occurring in the USA..I called the NZ Mint,I think it was Tuesday and my contact was a tired man:they had had their busiest day ever;no time for lunch,it was non stop telephone orders and 2 very sore ears.
With silver I think it might pay to have a variety of sizes.Heck,one ounce pieces could be useful for buying with,something 5 kg bars will not normally do for.Oddly,though 1 ounce coins seem to involve,from my perspective,a lot more work-stamping,cellophaning et cetera,they sell at the same mark up as the larger bars.
So that is our base situation generally.Silver looks like a breach could break in the dam and soon.So you want physical silver for security.But for profit,a good resource holding junior-could be specacular.PZG fits that bill.I do not believe we are likely to get full value-we will be taken out too soon.But I do belive,many juniors will be dramatically revalued.Please check out the 1970s-1980s boom.And do what we should have done a year or two ago,but most of us didn't.Ttake profits along the way.
You know,incompetent govt and corrupt banks and investment banks have made this problem hitting headlines .They will break the dollar,that seems inevitable.Then what?The people that got us,the world of us,into this mess-will offer a solution of a new kind of means of financial transaction.
Would you trust the motive or method of such a group?
Be kind to one another.
Buy time.
Ted Butler explains why.The time has changed.
http://www.investmentrarities.com/09-16-08.html
BUYING TIME is here.
The huge move in precious metal prices today was no accident.The major shorts that crushed silver and gold a couple of weeks back,have now changed sides.
They are now long.The artificial crushing has stopped.
The stock is part of the market in juniors.The juniors relate to the price of precious metals,vcurrently being hammered by:
1.Savage shorting by 2 USA banks.
2.The selling of leased gold by bullion majors like the caught out Barrick mining.
The above are facts.I like facts.We are not in a square game.It is currently rigged but when gold does blow,it will be big.Unavoidable given the USA's chronic economic problems.
Why do you think the Vietnamese govt.has banned gold imports?
Yes Sam,but replying to people who are paid to bash a stock,wastes your time and thoughtful perspectives.
John Brownlie anyone?
Clavo 99?
Yes Sam,good news.Where clavo 99 was,there are possibly 3 other clavos.I was guesstimating 130 ish million silver ounce equivalents ,once the current campaign was completed .200 could be on the cards with extra drilling.
CDE is now well below $2.00.
Interesting times
The prediction we would find more mineralisation generally,by drilling deeper,is proving up over a lot of SM.Now deeper drilling is again finding gold under the silver.
The target some have suggested,maybe 200 million silver ounce equivalents,sounds more realistic than my figure of 130-140 million ounces of silver equivalents.
CDE is well below $2.00 now and PZG down too.Odd times.This is the market to be a producer in.
Well,you may be privy to information not made public.if so,good.
But the evidence we have,limited as it is,suggests TRGD's cash needs are not greatly reduced.That is THE issue.Reduced outgoings,hopefully with income now starting via Columbia and TARM,means we are in a very different situation.TRGD has some superb properties.Keeping them,or at least being able to JV at our discretion,is so much better than having all at risk.
I look forward to our using John Brownlie a lot more for mine development advice.
Peak gold is here.Sorry,not well translated from the French.
http://www.dani2989.com/gold/worldgold08gb.htm
Peak gold.
Good article but poorly translated.
http://www.dani2989.com/gold/worldgold08gb.htm
The Smoking Gun
By: Theodore Butler
-- Posted 22 August, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 11
For years, the data contained in the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), issued by the CFTC, have indicated that several large COMEX traders have manipulated the price of silver and gold. For an equal number of years, the CFTC has reluctantly responded to public pressure over this issue with blanket denials of any wrongdoing. Many analysts have agreed with the CFTC’s position, conjuring up various ways to explain why a massive short position held by a handful of traders is not manipulative.
The recent widespread shortage of silver for retail purchase coupled with a price collapse appears to have shaken these analysts’ confidence that the COMEX silver market is operating ‘fair and square.’ Well it should, since there is no rational explanation for a significant price decline going hand in hand with product shortages other than collusive manipulation.
For any remaining doubters that COMEX silver and gold pricing is manipulated, the following CFTC data should be considered. This data is taken from a monthly report issued by the CFTC, called the Bank Participation Report. Here’s the link for the report -
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm The relevant data is found in the July and August futures sections. I will condense it.
These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price.
This data suggests other questions should be answered by banking regulators, the CFTC, or by those analysts who still doubt this market is rigged. Is there a connection between 2 U.S. banks selling an additional 27,606 silver futures contracts (138 million ounces) in a month, followed shortly thereafter by a severe decline in the price of silver? That’s equal to 20% of annual world mine production or the entire COMEX warehouse stockpile, the second largest inventory in the world. How could the concentrated sale of such quantities in such a short time not influence the price?
Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?
Do the traders who lost money in the recent price collapse of silver have a reason to believe that their money is now in the pockets of these two or three U.S. banks? If so, do they have recourse?
The data in the Bank Participation report is clear and compelling. that it is hard to conclude anything but manipulation. It is beyond credulity to conclude other than two or three banks caused one of the most severe price collapses in precious metals history. The CFTC has a lot to answer for as the regulatory agency responsible for preventing this type of blatant manipulation
The Smoking Gun
By: Theodore Butler
-- Posted 22 August, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 11
For years, the data contained in the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), issued by the CFTC, have indicated that several large COMEX traders have manipulated the price of silver and gold. For an equal number of years, the CFTC has reluctantly responded to public pressure over this issue with blanket denials of any wrongdoing. Many analysts have agreed with the CFTC’s position, conjuring up various ways to explain why a massive short position held by a handful of traders is not manipulative.
The recent widespread shortage of silver for retail purchase coupled with a price collapse appears to have shaken these analysts’ confidence that the COMEX silver market is operating ‘fair and square.’ Well it should, since there is no rational explanation for a significant price decline going hand in hand with product shortages other than collusive manipulation.
For any remaining doubters that COMEX silver and gold pricing is manipulated, the following CFTC data should be considered. This data is taken from a monthly report issued by the CFTC, called the Bank Participation Report. Here’s the link for the report -
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/bankparticipation/index.htm The relevant data is found in the July and August futures sections. I will condense it.
These facts speak for themselves. Here are the facts. As of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.
For gold, 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site. This was put on as one massive position just before the market collapsed in price.
This data suggests other questions should be answered by banking regulators, the CFTC, or by those analysts who still doubt this market is rigged. Is there a connection between 2 U.S. banks selling an additional 27,606 silver futures contracts (138 million ounces) in a month, followed shortly thereafter by a severe decline in the price of silver? That’s equal to 20% of annual world mine production or the entire COMEX warehouse stockpile, the second largest inventory in the world. How could the concentrated sale of such quantities in such a short time not influence the price?
Is there a connection between 3 U.S. banks selling an additional 78,611 gold futures contracts (7,861,100 ounces) in a month, followed shortly by a severe price decline in gold? That’s equal to 10% of annual world production and amounts to more than $7 billion worth of gold futures being sold by 3 U.S. banks in a month. How can this extraordinary concentrated trading size not be manipulative?
Because prices fell so sharply after the short sales were taken (with the appropriate dirty tricks as I have previously explained) holders of known physical silver in the world suffered a decline in value of more than $2.5 billion and long COMEX silver futures holders suffered a similar $2.5 billion decline in the value of their contracts. In gold, because the dollar value held is much greater than silver, investor losses were much greater, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars on their physical holdings. Declines in the value of mining shares adds many billions more. Was this loss of value caused by the concentrated short selling of 2 or 3 U.S. banks?
What real legitimate business do 2 or 3 U.S. banks suddenly have for selling short such quantities of speculative instruments over a brief time period? Do we want banks to be engaging in this type of activity? If the manipulation was not successful, would U.S. taxpayers be called on to bail out yet another bank speculation gone bad?
Do the traders who lost money in the recent price collapse of silver have a reason to believe that their money is now in the pockets of these two or three U.S. banks? If so, do they have recourse?
The data in the Bank Participation report is clear and compelling. that it is hard to conclude anything but manipulation. It is beyond credulity to conclude other than two or three banks caused one of the most severe price collapses in precious metals history. The CFTC has a lot to answer for as the regulatory agency responsible for preventing this type of blatant manipulation
Ignoring the Free Market Causes Shortages
Ignoring the Manipulated Market Causes Success
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, August 23rd, 2008
Today, Ted Butler released an article, title, "The Smoking Gun", where he revealed that two banks sold 27,000 paper contracts for about 139 million ounces of silver, from July 1 to August 5th, which depressed the paper price at the COMEX. Many are saying this is Ted's greatest article, as it is better proof of market manipulation than any other evidence we've ever seen.
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php
Coin shops should take note. Silver miners should take note. Refineries should take note.
Was 139 million ounces of real silver actually sold? What evidence exists that any silver was sold? I believe those were only paper promises. I'm sure many coin shops and refineries bought some of those contracts, as hedging is a common business practice.
How's that working out, as paper prices drop below physical prices? And if it's not working, maybe they should stop buying paper to hedge positions.
All the evidence is that no real silver was sold, and that real silver was being purchased by investors hand over fist during the price drop. Those who bought paper contracts to "hedge" the sales of real silver are now losing money, as real silver price premiums rise faster than the value of paper silver promises.
The same thing happened to paper money, when it was printed to excess back in 1968. Eventually, paper dollars were no longer worth the price of a silver dollar, which went much higher than paper money.
The second major free market infraction is the standard business practice of Johnson Matthey. JM recently had an 8-10 week delay if you ordered 100 ounce silver bars, and now, they are no longer taking orders. Those are not free market processes. That's first come, first served, yes, but forcing people to wait in line, and running out, and refusing orders is telling. The shortage of product is evidence of price fixing too low, below the market price.
People want to pay more, to get to the front of the line, but they can't, because JM won't let them. JM is standing in the way of the free market price clearing mechanism where product goes to the highest bidder, because JM is selling product based on the COMEX price-rigged price that does not provide real silver.
It is a violation of the most basic free market principles to ration product by making people wait in lines, rather than rationing product by price. To ration product by price, JM needs to auction off the product to the highest bidder, daily. That would allow the market to clear, daily, and avoid the long wait, and there would be no shortage. That would get JM the highest possible price. That would create the incentive for JM to make more, the profits that they are denying themselves, by locking in low prices that can cause them losses, lines, and turning away orders.
I learned that JM has a top manufacturing capacity of 300 to 400 bars per week. That's barely over 2 million ounces of silver per year. But the investors in silver want at least 60 million ounces of silver per year, or maybe over 100 million ounces this year.
So, that means that only about 100 ounces, out of 5000 ounces purchased by investors, will likely be a JM bar. That seems like the 100 ounce bars will remain rather rare, and thus, should command a significant premium.
So, clearly, there will continue to be a shortage of JM bars until JM begins to sell bars on a daily basis to the highest bidder. There will still not be enough for investors, but at least those who are most desperate to get fancy, neat, accurately measured and weighed, compact, easily handled, 6.8 pound, 100 oz. bars will be able to afford them.
The third free market violation comes from the U.S. Mint. The U.S. Mint has outsourced the making of coin blanks to other vendors. To my knowledge, they do not do this for coin blanks for other coins, such as pennies, nickels, dimes, quarters, or other coinage.
Thus, they place themselves at the mercy of private businesses that have to operate in a rigged fantasy market of highly variable prices, where no actual increased silver product is made available to turn into blanks at lower prices. This thwarts the intention of the U.S. Silver Eagle program, which is to make silver available to the market at all times at market prices.
The U.S. Mint is on target to make about 20 million Silver Eagles this year, about ten times as much silver as JM will make into 100 ounce bars. Thus, again, the bars might end up selling for more than the Eagles.
The paper selling of silver futures contracts, rather than real silver, also is thwarting the free market process, since real silver is not provided to people who want it.
These three major free market violations have collided to create a monumental shortage of physical silver for investment, exactly at the time that the price is the most optimal to buy.
Several well connected and well informed people tell me that there is no shortage of real silver, just a shortage of 100 oz. bars, 10 ounce bars, 1 ounce Silver Eagles, 1 ounce rounds, and such. OOOOHHHH-KAAAYYY!
Fine and dandy, ok, I agree. I understand that only 7-10% of the silver in the market each year is purchased by investors, and the rest goes to industry and jewelry markets, and thus, there is plenty of silver around, and that investors are comparatively few in the silver market. That's my entire point! That's what I've been saying for years! That there is no significant way that investment demand can increase for silver, in a market with rigged paper prices, without there being shortages, as we already are seeing. I've predicted this, the conditions that we are seeing today.
It's not rocket science to predict that when prices are too low, shelves get cleaned out! That's basic 101 free market common sense.
Besides, if 9 out of 10 bakery shops have no bread, that's called a shortage of bread, even if there is plenty of grain available. Silver itself may be "abundant," but not in the form that we investors want to buy, which is defined as a shortage.
The only way that these shortages can be ended is if investors refuse to wait in 8-10 week long lines, and refuse to buy paper futures contracts, and if they buy product that is available today, such as is advertised at places like APMEX.com and ebay.com.
Fortunately, there is no active hindrance to the free market. There is no ban on minting bars or coins; anyone can do this, and the profit incentive to turn 1000 oz. COMEX bars into products desired by investors, is growing.
Ebay is an area of the free market that is working the best for silver right now, as there are no shortages of silver on ebay. However, prices are higher on ebay. And you rarely find large amounts of silver at ebay, only a few 100 oz. bars per day. I believe ebay will increasingly be a better indicator of the real price of real silver. Despite all the disadvantages of ebay, they do not allow people to sell what they do not have, unlike today's futures markets, and some shady coin shops.
I do not believe the futures market needs to be "regulated" or "sued" or "legislated" out of existence. It simply needs to be ignored by the market, and it appears that is what is happening, and thus, it will beome increasingly irrelevant.
The paper manipulators will ingore the free market at their peril, and we will ignore their rigged market to our success.
I do own the metal money.Most bought early 2004.
I own a growing copper miner,as the BRIVCs will,need it,plus the Arabs,for infrastructure.A little perspective on copper follows from The Daily Reckoning.
"Friedland thinks he’s got a world-class project going at Mount Isa in Queensland. “The Mount Isa mining district is one of the top five mineralized districts on planet earth,” he told the local paper. “It doesn’t have to apologies to anyone. There’s the Witwatersrand in South Africa, there’s Norilsk in Russia, there’s the Cadillac district fault in Canada, there’s the main structure in Chile. This is one of the great mining regions in the world.”
Friedland is clearly on to something. He points out that these great new ore bodies of the mining world will replace many tired, old, bed-ridden mines that are nearing the end of their productive life. “Our view, and we talk to Rio Tinto about this a lot, is around the year 2012 or 2013 we are going to have a crisis in copper because a lot of the great copper mines are like little old ladies lying in bed waiting to die.”
Younger mines will have plenty of cost blowouts (see BHP’s Ravensthorpe nickel project). They will have to endure volatility in underlying commodity prices. But they have one thing the older mines don’t: a lot of ore in the ground. That’s worth something, especially at today’s resource share prices.
How are we playing it here at the Daily Reckoning’s Australian outpost?
While Frieldand looks for copper at Cloncurry, we’ve been targeting our investments to black coal and coal-seam-methane in Queensland, new uranium mines in South Australia (the only State which is permitting new mines right now), and, most importantly iron ore, vanadium, molybdenum and rare earth juniors in the vast expanse that is Western Australia (especially in the Pilbara region where we’re headed next week. A full report will follow).
Regards,"
Gold and silver coming miners as leverage on the metals.Touch too risky I admit.Still GORO should be mining soon.TARM hopefully is.PZG has SM plus some beautifully located land.
Wish I had in rhetrospect put more in the metals.My $4.80 silver still looks good.
NZ Maori situation.Agree.
The UN is the ultimate agency of socilism.
Sponsored by the tax free foundations.
Yes,near all economic activity will collapse soonish,per the bible.Then,you will be offered the electronic chip.
I have my freehold property and a large garden growing fast-if it would only stop raining so I could plant another plum trees.
Be kind to one another.
A little gold/silver related economics.
I have previously presented the main factors that make darks things coming,inevitable.Here is a neat summation,without too much detail.
"The Building Storm:
Gold, the Dollar and Inflation
David Galland
Managing Editor
The Casey Report
Casey Research
Aug 22, 2008
One could hardly fail to notice that gold investors have suffered a little more than a "bit of pain" over the past month. More like a good kicking as gold moved down by about 20% from its recent high of $986 on July 15.
Making assumptions is often a bad idea, but I am going to go out on a limb here and make the assumption that those of you with an interest in gold are concerned over the latest setback, the depth of which has surprised even us.
Don't be.
The evidence to support that statement would fill a telephone book at this point. Starting with the latest U.S. inflation numbers which, even using the government's own crooked calculations, rang in the last reporting period at 5.6%. Quoting John Williams of ShadowStats.com from a recent email I received from that organization...
"Reported consumer inflation continued to surge on both a monthly and annual basis, once again topping consensus expectations. The July CPI-U jumped to a 17-year high of 5.6% in July, while annual inflation for the narrower CPI-W - targeted at the wage-earners category where gasoline takes a bigger proportionate bite out of spending - annual inflation jumped to 6.2%. The CPI-W is used for making the annual cost of living adjustments to Social Security payments. The 2009 adjustment - based on the July to September 2008 period - remains a good bet to top 5%, more than double last year's 2.3% adjustment for 2008. Such is not good news for federal budget deficit projections."
Based on Williams' calculations, which use the same CPI formula used by the Fed prior to the jiggering of the Clinton years, the actual inflation rate is now running at 13.64%.
And on August 19, we learned that the U.S. Producer Price Index rang in at a month-over-month increase of 1.2%, the third month in a row where that leading indicator has topped the 1% mark. Meanwhile, in Europe, the latest numbers put inflation at a 16 year high. And these are not anomalies, but the norm as the inflation tide continues to rise literally around the world.
Dark Clouds
A good analogy to the global currency devaluation is a slow-moving hurricane that, once over warm water, gains energy.
Right now the global inflation is a huge storm, slowly circling off the proverbial coast where it is gathering strength from the hundreds of billions of dollars being fed into it by governments desperate to avoid economic collapse... and from pricing decisions being made by everyone from manufacturers to local shopkeepers looking to cover rising costs.
At this point the skies are dark, the wind is rising, and the torrential rains are beginning to sweep in. The radio is broadcasting warnings to move to higher ground, but the hurricane has yet to hit the shore.
But when it does, it will be a Category 5 and maybe worse.
That's because, in addition to the straight-up consequences of the government monetary prolificacy and businesses raising prices to try and stay afloat, there is something else feeding power to the storm... something we have been warning about for years now: the rising odds that the global fiat currency system will fail.
Let me add some nuance to that remark.
In recent years, the global financial community, reflexively looking for an alternative to the obviously damaged U.S. dollar, has settled on the euro. But the euro is equally flawed, and maybe even more so, than the U.S. dollar. Now that the trading herd has also come to that conclusion, they are rushing back toward the dollar.
They are doing so not because the U.S. dollar is healthy, but rather because that is all that they know... a heads-or-tails continuum running something along the lines of "If the 'it's-not-the-dollar' play is over, then it must be time to go back into the dollar."
The euro sinks, the dollar goes up.
And so gold, viewed by these same traders only in terms of its inverse relationship to the dollar, gets hammered.
What they are missing, but not for much longer, is that rushing back into the dollar is akin to heading for the vulnerable coast, and not to the higher ground now proscribed. They are also missing the point that gold's monetary value is not limited to protecting only against a failure in the U.S. dollar, but against any faltering fiat currency... a moniker that the euro deserves in spades. Not only is it backed by nothing, but it is also backed by no one.
I hope that the above point is clear, because it is an important one. One way to think about it is to think about Zimbabwe. If you lived in that blighted country and a year ago you could have had an ounce of gold or a wallet full of that country's failing currency, which would have been the better bet?
The answer, while obvious, is illustrative, because the wealth preservation role that the ounce of gold would have played for a citizen of Mugabe's paradise had zero connection with how well gold did, or didn't do, against the U.S. dollar over the period.
A Return to Sound Money
Gold is viewed as tangible money right around the world, and has been for millennia. When the trading herd wakes up to the fact that neither the U.S. dollar nor the euro, nor any other fiat currency, will protect them against the monetary storm that will soon begin tearing the roofs off their cozy offices, they'll fall all over themselves in the rush for something that will: gold and other tangibles.
Those of you who have been Casey Research subscribers for some time know that the scenario just described is one that we have forecasted for some time. If you think the thing through, precedent to the global monetary crisis, the euro first had to stumble. Well, it now has. The next stage - and given the volatility of the situation, I don't think we'll have to wait long for it - will be the realization that there is no safe fiat currency. It is at that point that the massive hurricane, a crisis of confidence in the entire fiat system, will begin ravaging the global economy in earnest.
The price action of gold and, especially, gold-related investments over the last year, have been frustrating, to say the least. But the scenario now unfolding remains step-by-step in sync with our base case. As such, the best way to view this latest correction in the price of gold is as a temporary setback of no real consequence from an investment perspective (unless you use it as a buying opportunity).
The failure of the euro, on the other hand, is not just important... it is as monumental as it was inevitable.
-David Galland"
Be kind to one another.
Thanks HJH.Nothing new but always worth reminding the faithful.
Beyond the miner's situation,the economic situation will be a large determinant of what happens to mining share values.
The current calm is illusory.A rising dollar-bizarre.Wait for the next financial crisis-they get progressively bigger and biiger as the fed creates debt unpayable for generations of americans.The current fiscal deficit is frightening.That of course forgets,conveniently, the 3 big unfunded obligations of govt largese:health care,medical drugs,superannuation.
Crippling.Impossible.Literally.
The above of course excludes he military situations,the trade deficits,the surfeit if green paper in foreigners hands/banks.
The housing crisis is young,wait for the prime siuation to get worse soon,then the ARM crisis next year.
How do you find safe store of work.Work being explelled effort,being an acruement of wealth.Certainly not in green paper money,nor real estate,except possibly farmland.
I will take some haven in the 4000 year old exchange medium and value store:ag and au.
Silver's collapse.As a silver bug,the last fortnight has not been enjoyable.So,has silver demand fallen out of bed?Is the supply /demand equation out of balance.According to Jason Homemel,the silver shortage remains.He and his sources cannot find a supplier of multiple 1000 ounce silver bars.The silver is not there for delivery.
So how come silver has dropped off the high board?
The best I can come up with.
Oil went up dramatically,then down,as a result of futures trading.I assume silver has been burnt on the futures.I do know,most of the short positions on siler,were held by a small number of USA security houses.
anyone got any supportive facts to support an opinion?
Do have a wee look at the much fallen Minera Andes.They have a very rich ore in Argentina,mining and discovering.Plus a very good propsective copper property with Xstrata.
However,it is the cash that needs focus.The SP about $1.00.Quarterly profit,now 5 cents a share.Hmm,PE ratio of 5,with growing production,plus exploration.Now if production is doubled,per schedule,by end of year,MAI will look most interesting.
McEwan is on board,figuratively and literally.
That growing production and profit could alter the market's perception of MAI and one hopes,similar could be the case with TARM.
Clearly you have not checked out the low cost of production.
A junior and exploration stock turn about?
Well that is what technical analyst Clive Maund thinks could be in the offing soon.Like a number of TA he has picked the PM sector as being oversold,especially the stocks.Today however he suggested the most smashed of sectors,could be due a revival.
There is a very interesting article by Ambrose Pritchard,321Gold. Among other points,he says the Eurozone has no mechanism for bale outs like those recently seen in the USA.
We live in interesting times.
I do not believe minimum govt has to mean near no legislative protection against bad business practice.Or does it?
Maybe low govt interference needs specific definitions?
I believe in minimal taxes,minimal govt spending,minimal armed forces.Now you have huge govt interference in the USA ,but none of the protections you imply are needed.Is that the worst of both worlds?
Agreed,except the German National Socialist,were fascists.That is well recognised.Fascism is a generic term.
The Spanish under General Franco were similarly Fascists(Though called differently in their own nomenclature),as was Mosley in the UK .
I too believe in open markets with minimal govt.
God bless the great constitution,because the govt.has not.
Good post Sam.One point though,China has the largest $ reserves in the world now.They have no problems spending $ if they choose.
I wander when they might start buying up USA farm land and mineral resources?
Gosh,this is another junior ride full of pain,currently.
PZG is far better than most juniors out there.
It has control of one prime property,San Miguiel,plus lots of adjacent land.That of course excludes the desirable looking Mexoro deal.(Fine assays that side of our fence too.)
I am down too much to laugh about on my juniors so my opinion might well be discarded.
I would make a couple of comments though.During the great 1970s precious metal's bullrun,gold and silver were not on a nice,straight,stressfree climb.There were down years.Do look back to those historic charts.I do not know how the juniors reacted to those downturns,year long as some were.I do know,at the later stages of the run of runs;finding a cheap junior was mission impossible.
The medium term future of the juniors I still believe,resides in the underlying metals.That thought invokes a plethora of questions.
Is there good reason to more believe gold will be valued as money?
Will mining gold costs continue to rise?
Will wars,civil instability,draw people to gold?
(No depression has ever occured without accompanying war)
What might happen to paper money?
How many bank-type shocks are still coming?(I think of the coming ARM crisis,the coming superannuation fund write downs)
Away from PM.Will the BRIVCs world keep the huge infrastructural spending currently occurring,going?If so,copper,cement,iron ore,zinc,chromium et al,will be needed and marginal demand may increase(As opposed to decrease)
Then an underlying question.To what extent are commodity price moves now a product of hedge fund and investment bank games,as opposed to supply and demand factors?
Is deflation or inflation running the game?Personally I fear massive deflation more than inflation,but that could be a little naivety by me.For example,moderate inflation will make currently overpriced houses become reasonable-maybe over a 4 year period.With serious deflation,when does the ball stop riolling?For example,in the 1930s,house prices in the USA were worth about 70% of an inflation adjusted housing index.That suggests deflation could halve USA housing from her.That is frightening.
Frightening as that % figure is, figures exclude the demand destruction,the other assett value destruction,the compounding job losses.
In Australia the housing scene is as bad.In the UK,possibly worse,in Spain,in Italy!Budget deficits in the west,and trade shortfalls ,are common,too common.
Inflation or deflation,or a mix of both?Either way,some insurance in the precious metals seems wise.Heck,even Jim Rogers suggests having gold insurance.
Thanks for keeping us up to date Sam.
So common that those incapable of thinking rationally or reasoned cases,resort to irrelevancy and trivia.
So now we all know,anyone involved in juniors is incapable of economic reasoning.Hmm.
Most thinking people enjoy reasoned discussion and robust discussion.Righly so.
But childlike self indulgence accomplishes nothing constructive,that I can see.
A couple of hours economic study a day will give most a guide to what is happening and why.Resort to basic classical economic theory gives you the patterns that must occur,just the details vary.Debt accumulation must lead at some stage to a reaction,assett decline and reduced expenditure.The longer a process is in excess,the greater the reaction.Fairly simple stuff.What applies to a man,applies equally to men.(Look up Von Misses)
Are things bad?Just one thought here.To fund the unfunded aspects of the USA budget-to cover superannuation due,medical care and medicine costs,would require,all other things being unchanged,a 68% increase in USA taxes.Fact.
No matter how you alter the basis of the USA budgets foreseeable,huge changes are needed.(Richard Fisher,May 28,2008.He is on the Federal Open Market Committee.Fed Reserve.)That statistic has been available 7 years now.
Just a little vocabulary work.
Where govt serves the interest of a limite range of wealthy business interests it is fascism,as practices in Italy and Germany in the 1930s.Both those countries gave the word a bad name with their militarism.Then again,often busineses like war as the profit portential is so enormous.
One could argue that Bush is involved in a fascist type government.
Sadly your political knowledge is rather short on NZ.
Muldoon was directly responsible for a big increase in socialist ic pratctices in NZ.Like giving the benefits to unmarried mothers,which encouraged the same.Like introducing an unfunded govt suparerannuation scheme.
Oddly it was a so thought,left wing govt in NZ that was responsible for most of the privatization in NZ,under Roger Douglas's economic stewardship.
Re selling of utilities.Some of that had disasterous consequences-like power prices going though the roof.You imply govt run businesses in NZ could have been better run.Very true generally.
Socialism providing a floor might be reasonable.In NZ though,near 40% of the population get some kind of benefit.Consider benefits for families,that has quite high income earners getting govt cash.We would both agree probably,and vote for tax cuts instead.Once in place,bad governance is hard to stop.
By the early 1990s NZ under Ruth Richardson,had sensible rightist policies,in my view.The Prime Minister,a right winger,sold her out for tax cuts-to win an election,and stuff the economy up for about 7 years,with major balance of payments problems,a product of those tax cuts.(Kiwis have a margin propensity to consume of over 90%,most of that goes on imported items)
I fully agree on your points about big business.The trouble I believe is,these guys are getting bailed out.The USA tax payer will have to take on the debt.Banks with dodgee banking practices and dodgee investment houses are the ones bailed out.
Stricter govt. regulation would have helped.That was the point of the Glass Speigel Act as you would know.Dogee businesses seem to have enormous influence over the govt.
Good points Shiester but normally a company controlling inground ounces,has a value attributable for those ounces.Our 30 million are given zero value.Not even 50 cents an ounce let alone a couple of dollars.
SM cannot be fully drilling by the current holders.PZG and TRGD do not have the funds to adequately drill SM.Much more deeper drilling is needed,plus more sideways investigation.About $40 million is needed to get a good quality resource report.
Then again,inground ounces could be due a boost if the next round of crisis take gold soaring.Certainly majors are into acquiring now and me thinks,not by accident.
Socialist,and you live in the USA.What disease do you think has blighted the USA for over 80 years?Rockerfellar gave the land for the socialist UN.Rockerfellar pay rolled the socialist half wit,Dewey.Check your tax free foundations or the socialist dieases cornerstone in the USA.Check who set up the deeply,corrupting,USA destroying Federal Reserve-a private club of mostly european bankers.Check who set up the IMF.(Here is a wee joke.Image if the IMF prescribed medicine for the USA!Well the IMF is now giving the USA economy the once over-but Bush insisited the result not come out till he is well out of office.)The USA has all the disadvantages and few of the dubious advantages of a so called socialist system..The whole Anglo economic system is collapsing and you yell a silly disease.Socialist.Well the two are intimate and the child a mongol.That what inbreeding does for you.
The NZ economy is a mess,looking for a toilet.The last govt,for 9 years has been crippling sense and socialist as stupidy will allow.The chickens will come home to roost-or roast in a firesale.The NZ dollar should plummet this year.
Wait till the round of nationalizations occur in the USA.Wait till the next round of bank traumas.Wait for a big one,no,not toxic prime loan sludge,the comng,soon to be at a dairy near you ARM crisis.(Adjustable rate mortgages )
No sensible,capitalist nation would have allowed the govt disease to imperil the USA so.Too late now.The crisis does not come,it is here but embryionic.
My political creed is easy to define.It is embodied in one man,the second president of the USA:Thomas Jefferson.He warned you of the blight.Trust not government,minimal government and control of your own currency.
Trust God.Trust gold.
And be kind to one another.
PZG is now selling for $1.17 .
That is low for a company not being constantly bashed.
The SM inground silver ounces are ot being given much value.Mind you,TRGD's SM holding is given no value.
See,see ,you could not help but reveal yourself.
You are not a shareholder.
You have clearly stated you would NOT own this share.
That means of course,you are here to bash.
Who do you work for?
Yes,more good news.Odd share price movement but hard to hold against a market trend.
You should see the bashing going on the yahoo GORO site.
Someone wants to buy in to expend so much effort trying to hurt GORO.
One of the real problems underlying all is the USA $.It is now so deeply faulted.In time,as it recedes and stops being the currency of trade,it will probably lose some 70% of current value.Just like the UK's sterling did.
Depression coming?probably.No depression has occurred with out a war-just a little fact for historians out there.
I do not see a big need for exposure Sam.As long as the we get positive facts like production,cashflow,profits.
Clearly some buyers are seeing positive news very close.
Help.I have made a couple of half wit posters ignore candidates but their idiot posts still appear before me,when I seek to read worthwhile posts.
How do I expunge the rot?
One crucial facet of TRGD,so often ignored,is the quality of properties they have acquired.Simply exceptional.While SM is currently the highlight of very skilled buying,many others have been seen as highly desirable.That is reflected in the number of JV signed up.(Just as SM has had many majors in tow,5 I know of)The main problems with majors,they want a lot of cake themselves,but maybe even such deals give us momentum.
Just as an aside,we do not have lots of property with large cashflows needed to sustain our holding.The situation varies markedly and some are pretty much ours.
I think a lot of us share your sentiments.
We bought in for some good reasons,not all of which are as thought/hoped.
Then again,many positives are still there but in a market when so many juniors have been smashed,many similarly,how to separate from the trend?
Have a look at the junior silver/gold producer,Minera Andes.They have production and growing,increased precious metal resources,some amazing copper assays from Los Azules,jvs with majors,Rob McEwan on side-and they halved quite recently.They too are rising fairly much in conjunction with TRGD.
The PM market is on a slow decline presently.I would not be selling my little metal store of value though.The clowns that orchestrated the smashing of the USA economy,are the same one's telling us,they have steemed the tide.Tides are 6 hourly and a spring tide cometh.I see that tide as very positive for the PM stocks.Juniors with good assetts will become valued,in time but cashflow is king now.Cashflow or cash and TARM/TRGD seem to be turning the money corner.
Think about what has real value?Food,grow a garden,have a stockpile.Water,have a small 'reserviour'(plastic )A property,have it freehold if possible.A survival kit?A compact,needed metal:silver stacks up well,somewhat less so gold.
And be kind to one another.