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Yo. Deputy. I know you're busy directing traffic at the corner of Politics and No Politics, but those are grown men traveling three miles per hour in their little red wagons. Take a break.
I'm guessing that with your recent tweaking of the first half forecast, you have a clearer sense of the second half, no?
Zut alors. A jaywalking ticket.
A.
Delete the "piles of crud," but not the worthy read. The poster's history is immaterial.
A.
Augie,
Not looking for a beef and I know that whatshisname has a history of disruptive, partisan bickering, but the thoughts of a writer of le Carre's stature should not be marginalized by removal to the sister thread. We, as Americans, need to proceed with an awareness of overseas voices, and the events of the day do move the markets.
Ever the contrarian,
a.
Augie,
Not looking for a beef and I know that whatshisname has a history of disruptive, partisan bickering, but the thoughts of a writer of le Carre's stature should not be marginalized by removal to the sister thread. We as Americans need to proceed with an awareness of overseas voices, and the events of the day do move the markets.
Ever the contrarian,
a.
How can VXN be down on a day like this?
Thank you, James, but Fred is I-Hub's poet laureate. I have yet to meet the Minister of Silly Walks.
Zeev. eom
A.
Yo. Fred. It's me. Need you to settle an argument. Never mind with whom. It was a long time ago. This Internet thing, it makes us behave childishly. Don't worry, man. He's not THAT vindictive. Fred, your knees are knocking. You're thinking of Frank Miller in High Noon. This is a nice Italian boy. Okay, Sicilian. Forgive and forget, right? What's he got to be mad about, anyhow? He beat the rap. That's right, Koikaze. He's free. Well, so are we. Fred, you're white as a ghost. Fred, don't run. Fred, look both ways before you cross the street. Fred, it's about poetry. P o e t r y, Fred.
Does Doppelganger rhyme with hooeymonger?
A.
Zeev,
The halcyon days of message boards are past. One quarter short of three years into a secular bear market, the boards loom as dust bowls. Wryly, there are not enough monied dispossessed to go around. Against this backdrop, many formerly influential voices have dropped out or assumed lower profiles, and you have decided to leverage the Zeev Hed brand. Your prolix Doppelganger's blatherskite boilerplate is everywhere. Links to crisp thinking, such as you would share with another egghead, are so rare as to be unexpected. And the curriculum of a fading subculture grows counterproductively Zeevcentric.
Yo. Quit basking in your own centricity and be reminded: Socratic irony is not your best schtick.
As the standardbearer, you are watched. By Zeevites and Zeevologists. (Got you again, you big zeeving ham.) When you cite a forthcoming earnings release from, say, AMAT or QLGC, as causative agent for a top or rally, that is fudging. The fundamental development is foreign to the model which produced the turn date. Fudging, the population will agree, is bad, but to anticipate measures that would trigger a HFTH (sic) call is a considerably higher crime, and kangaroo court is in session.
Here are some givens: You choose to associate with your wide sweep of riffraff cyberfriends. You willingly allow yourself to be held accountable for your pronouncements. You are not above taking a vainglorious swipe at Don Hays or Stephen Roach, and when the moon is full, you skulk over to SI--heeding the call of your raging Sicilian blood, Godfather--to upbraid the uppity. There is a pecking order, and a smug parvenu rates an Old World kiss.
Ours is a community which regularly heaps abuse on impure pundits. Safe targets, commonly. Street-employed talking heads. The likes of poor Abby. Say it with me: poor Abby. (If Abby the Robot married Larry Dudash, would congress produce...Hal? Ohmygod! Larry, you DIDN'T! Say it ain't so! With the LIGHTS on?! Alternatively, if Abs married Augieboo...I know what you're thinking, Zeev. He's been looking at Courbet again. Well, yeah.) We hate these bipedal lizards because they are full of shit, and is our money coming out of their wazzoos.
Now, Zeevcentrically, even the most callow Turnip flower child knows that the water is rising when the Hippy Dippy Weatherman-Mad Hatter (go ask Alice, my trippy friend) doffs his shiny bull horns and races to the dry cleaners for his bearsuit.
[The judge pops an aspirin and massages his temples.]
The bench recognizes that the accused, by dint of his skillset, life experience, and native candlepower, is first among equals in the democratic Turnipville of his founding. But, gently, gently, gently, NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THAT BLASTED CRAZYASS DOPPELGANGER HOOEYMONGER OF YOURS IS ZEEVING ABOUT! Furthermore, you/he/the both of you have the surpassing gall to traduce innocents as reading-challenged.
Order in the court. Bailiff, remove the trader who fainted.
Zeev Hed, as I understand your work history, this is not your first brush with stripes. Mister, there is an air of danger and a potential for harm in your zeeving. You have created an atonishingly rich online persona, but there are times when the real, buttoned-down McCoy must surface. Properly, a greater transparency is warranted. There should be a clear delineation of the basis and expections for this and future To The Hills'. Static quantifiables are required. If this should result in the inauguration of a Climb A Tall Tree call...I do not even want to think about it. The court is deeply troubled to learn that a Grand Nassacre wildfire is building across the Internet. For this sin alone, thirty minutes of penitential housework are ordered. The court orders the purchase of software which will prohibit the posting of the words erubescence and kimono. You, sir, are a shameless recidivist, and even Hefner wears pajamas. And no more fudging. Verbotten. Capiche?
Finally, to the innumerable mugs, knaves, and vulgarians who stepped forward to attest to the Zeevster's good works and fundamental rectitude: Middling Horse Sense beats Weak TA over eight furlongs.
aldaka
"Bellhop, I need a girl, and do you know where Saddam keeps the weapons of mass destruction?"
Are there any cartoonists in the house?
Zeev, if you will brook a question about your model. Does she update in realtime, or must crunchables be imputted while the market sleeps?
A.
Zeev, a simple question: Are all To The Hills calls EQUAL?
A.
lurqer, good tops, as Zeev uses the term, are built on greater distribution. Also, this To The Hills cry was not nearly as well-telegraphed as his last.
For what it is worth, my long-term thinking seems to mirror your own. But this is my first bear market, and there is a naive quality to my fatalism. Older folks, bless them, are better acquaintances of fatalism.
In your opinion, O mighty lurq, did we make an inviolable right shoulder, or are you just busting my balls?
A.
Zeev, do you wholly discount the potential for a brief correction and a run to or above 1500? This does not feel like a "good" top.
A.
Zeev, what is your downside target?
aldaka
Turnip falsettos! I knew it! I swear, any bird who claims to have a model is from planet Mongo!
And another thing: HONK if you think it is beneath the dignity of the office of the President of the United States for Mr. Bush to wear a baseball cap in public.
wahz, what is your "main momentum indicator"?
a.
HONK if you want lurqer to post more often.
Health and long life to you, the woman of your choice to you, a child every year to you, land without rent to you, and may you die in Ireland.
gadfly
Zeevie, one of these days bawdy Frederick will rhyme erubescence with tumescence and all of I-Hub will be shuttered.
Merry Christmas and cinch up your kimono.
Aw, I can't resist. If you were translating from Hungarian (a proverb, beatific sir?), how in brothertrucking hell did you get kimono?
Enquiring minds want to know,
aldaka
Matt, as discussed earlier, I need a new alias. Thought about Josef K, but gadfly is just zingier. Modestly, I would prefer a small g.
Thanks, goodfella.
Yo. Fred. Buddy. It's me. I tried posting to you over in The Jailhouse, but I freaking couldn't get in. The soporose thought police ain't wise to me yet. Oh, the sorry state of law enforcement in these precints.
Sidebar: When's the last time you thought of Groucho Marx?
Now, conspiratorially, Fred, the reason for my visit. I need to know how a mug can change his username. I think I would make a fine (drumroll and thunderclap) gadfly.
Your pal,
aldaka/gadfly, P.S. 175, Queens, class of never you mind (Last I heard the famed Irishman Nate Archibald was teaching there.)
Zeev, I went back and reread my post, then misaddressed my response to yours. Please see #55758.
aldaka
Zeev, it's true. My principle contribution has been waggery.
I apologize if I have made unreasonable, correspondent-specific demands, though, as an obtuse sort, this unclear to me. I apologize if my funning has crossed any nebulous bound, but, um, yeah, I guess I sure as hell did.
Guilty as sin,
aldaka
Zeev, may I suggest a daily, on-thread compilation of Cool Posts? It would be a service.
Also, Godfather, as a rather lackluster performer in your role as thread steward, you need a peacetime consiglieri. With over one thousand bookmarks, you can easily afford to double augieboo's MDA salary. But no, that playful pooch, his tail constantly aflutter (gas?), is gone.
Many of your bookmarkers book.
Why hang with a trippy rocket scientist if he plays his cards so close to his vest that we cannot learn anything?
aldaka
Fred, thanks for writing. I tell you, the rest of these people, what a band of mugs, knaves, and vulgarians. They don't care about anything but playing CCMP pingpong. Zeev serves. ML vollies. It ain't no big deal. A seal can balance ball on its snout, and damningly, the trick amuses an audience better than it amuses the seal. They just don't know who the cool kids in this playground really are.
Jo Heffernan was Whistler's mistress. She posed for Courbet as well. Regrettably, Googled is a funnier verb iffing your lips move when you a-read. Try it. Go Hed. The market will wait. Aloud: I Googled the ass off that Betty Page.
Taking a hiatus,
A.
Zeev, paying homage: You missed a reference to Whistler and Courbet. I prefer Courbet. Really freaky.
VBG.A
Fred, it distresses me to learn that a selfless, low-level public servant has been displaced in favor a connected's nephew with a work history of spotty attendance.
Accentuating the positive, girl-watching is a rewarding field. This will strain all credulity, but I Googled Betty Page last night. Jo Heffernan always reminds me of Betty Page.
A.
Yo. Koikaze. Fred. Wake up, man. You expect folks to wade through all those blizzards of tickers and decimals by themselves? I can't stand that brain salad sushi. Update your thread. PLEASE!!!!
Seriously, who is the sanctioned Boswell? Koikaze or Kayaker?
No responses? I love that joke. While I readily concede that the story was not well told, colored by my disdain for recreational chemical users--aw hell, that belongs on No Politics. Maybe we need a longer edit window. Make it open-ended. Late, great bull goose Texas songwriter.
Fidelity should change its name to Sisyphus.
Though I fear the connection won't be clear to many, this reminds me of a joke which Townes van Zandt, the late, great Texas songwriter, tells on a concert album.
A policeman sees a drunk guy stumbling down the street, obviously too wrecked to drive. The cop stops the drunk and says, Gimme your car keys, buddy. The drunk reaches into his pockets, can't find his keys. He tells the cop that a thief has stolen his car. The cop, completely disgusted, tells the stinking drunk to zip up his pants. The drunk says, Oh no, he took my girl, too!
Dropping to a conspiratorial susurrus, Sisyphus Funds.
I dunno. Some things just get funnier later. There's a lag.
aldaka
A good symmetry.
aldaka
Zeev, from here, what actions or indicator readings would you take as cautionary?
I hope that Mr. Safire did not call you a readingchallenged anklebiter. But let's not put words in an august pro's mouth.
VBG.A
Zeev, if we are going to nitpick, the 2:22 turns have been off a mite since leap year.
a.
For those who tolerate riddles: What did Jacqueline Susann say on Valentine's Day? "Erubescence is creeping up my cheeks."(--Zeev Hed)
Eruciform comes between erubescent and erumpent. I double effing dare you to work that one into an argument about Valence without poormouthing moths. Eruct, on the other hand, meshes winningly with "toxic bovine excrement."(--Zeev Hed) Erudite fella and Erulusian survivor of cyberscraps that you are, I bet you could whip Wolanchuk with four consonants tied behind your back.
Doubtless the Zeevster knows all of those words. To make life a little bit easier for passersby, I used them in alphabetical order.
Disclosure: no position in Valence.
aldaka
mlsoft, I could not browbeat Zeev into tellng me what I wanted to hear about hedging and event risk. If I were to butter you up by calling you The World's Foremost Expert On The History Of Kangaroo Futures From The Industrial Revolution To The Space Age, what would tell me about leveraged short funds? I'll even say...
Thanks in advance,
aldaka
Zeev, Turnipville is an anomic community. Hundreds visit. Most remain voiceless. Discourse is dominated by a strikingly unrepresentative handful. Older gentlemen, retired or semiretired, monied, just playin' the market. It goes unmentioned that the vast majority either hold jobs or are not primarily daytraders.
You are an endearing character, something of a patron saint to the pokey and unwashed small investor. But there are two of you, my friend. The patient, principled scientist and that gonzo Doppelganger-serial abuser of the edit window who posts nothing but breathless paeans to madflipper buccaneering. Plainly, in my view, the wrong cat is kept locked in the attic during business hours.
This is Saturday. The betting windows are closed. The "Die, Emulex, die" crowd is not around. Thank you for the roughcut of your first half, 2003 forecast. Among those who go on record every day, publicly, in an interactive forum, you are the very best.
Say. Hold it. Wait up. Did you slip an edit in there? Politely? Way down at the bottom of the page? Can only mean that you are proud of the work behind your model.
aldaka
Zeev, matter-of-factly, you ARE anticipating a nasty haircut. From 1600 to sub 1000. Against this backdrop, would the turnips' constitution prohibit the shorting of index funds? You did after all repeal the no-gold ammendment. -g-
aldaka
Zeev, you used the phrase, "making profits while preserving capital." Toward that end, and given the climate of event risk, how do you hedge your portfolio? When you raise cash, are you really collecting less than one percent in a money market? Rydex Venture or ProFunds Ultrashort OTC would seem to be a acceptable vehicles for an ace timer with qualms about shorting. I know that turnip farmers are proud, prickly, early-to-rise, old-school, real-men-pick-their-own-stocks kind of guys, but colloquially, sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you. Those leveraged index funds would be more like fish in a barrel.
A.
Zeev, 1619 in January, a January top, is now adjudged a probability?
a.