full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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AAA.v not tearing up the wires with news yet this week. Maybe they're waiting on Dubai World to settle out a bit before making any noise.
'peeker
ps> Tapping foot on floor, waiting on drilling news to take AAA.v back up a chunk.
TRGD down .05 now on about twice normal volume, as they did not meet their own expectation. Their last news said they said "... assay results expected in November ...". Well it's today or they missed November.
TRGD management cannot be trusted. They consistently overpromise and underdeliver.
Tara Minerals to Bulk Sample Gold Vein
CHICAGO, IL -- (Marketwire) -- 10/13/09 -- Tara Minerals Corp. (OTCBB: TARM), a subsidiary of Tara Gold Resources Corp. (PINKSHEETS: TRGD) (FRANKFURT: T8N), is pleased to announce that selective mining to bulk sample the newly discovered high-grade gold-bearing San Felipe quartz vein (see October 1, 2009 press release) has begun. A minimum of 500 tonnes will be sampled.
Assay results are expected in November and if consistent with recent sampling, gold mining and processing will begin immediately. The producing Don Roman mill (see September 29, 2009 press release) has three parallel circuits and a portion of the capacity can be used to produce gold concentrate for sale.
Surface channel samples from the structure have returned values ranging from 28 to 41 grams gold per tonne. Additionally, a series of 8 shallow trenches returned 4 to 6 grams gold per tonne. Work to date has outlined the known vein strike length to approximately 850 meters and approximately 400 meters in vertical height. The vein remains open both laterally and at depth. The tunneling has begun and is expected to advance approximately 9m per day.
Mr. Francis Biscan Jr., President of Tara Minerals Corp., stated, "I would like to recognize Ms. Aracely Urquidi, one of our talented geologists, with the discovery of the San Felipe vein. It is a significant discovery for Tara Minerals shareholders and has become a high priority. If the results merit, production from the structure can continue, and further development of the mine to increase output can begin immediately."
CSGH & NEWN: Will they have pricing power as Sony gets in the game? I believe Nissan is also talking about building batteries for EVs directly. It's never easy to know how the big established names will build manufacturing capacity, but they could buy some of the battery makers like CSGH, NEWN, ALTI or just force the battery companies to offer very competitive pricing down the line, sort of like what has happened in the photovoltaics industry.
'peeker
ps> currently long CSGH and wanting some NEWN in the 5.50 area, but not sure I'll get it if the sector starts to take off.
Bought some INP (for a one day trade) expecting at least some rebound in India mkts Monday before US opens. JMHO...
INP is the iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) which is based on the MSCI India Total Return Index (which has 59 constituents)
'peeker
ps> The wkend provides an opportunity for positive news between Dubai and UAE gov't regarding Dubai World 6m payment delays and Dubai's plans for debt restructuring.
11:27 Floor Talk: Follow up on Dubai fallout – taking a look at the implications
Instead of the typical post-Thanksgiving void in the market, a surprising sell-off in overseas markets triggered by Dubai debt concerns led to sharp early losses and a spike in volatility in the U.S. markets. The concerns come after the Dubai government took charge of restructuring its corporate flagship, Dubai World, and asked creditors to defer payments of some $20 bln in debt coming due over the next 18 months. While a Dubai default would be the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001, U.S. markets didn't initially react to the first headlines on the subject released on Wednesday. However, growing concerns triggered a sharp sell-off in overseas markets yesterday while the U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Now the U.S. markets are playing catch up today, and the lack of any other news of note has focused investor attention solely on the Dubai situation.
While this situation is still in the early stages, and the actual direct impact of Dubai on the U.S. markets may be minimal, a potential default of this sort has several implications. First of all, the news acts as a nudge to those that may have already been considering locking in their gains after the incredibly strong rebound in global equity markets over the past six months. Even if the actual impact of Dubai is minimal, a dent in sentiment could have a greater effect since the equity market has recently been showing diminishing strength amid the incremental new highs of the recent weeks (this is evident in the narrowing breadth of strength -- fewer issues/groups making fresh highs).
Second, there is a flight to quality taking place, which is evident in rising yen and dollar (with the yen outpacing the dollar) and U.S. treasuries. If the Dubai situation happens to trigger a sustained reversal (strengthening) of the weak dollar, which has helped sustain gains in dollar-denominated assets, further pressure will be felt in U.S. assets, especially commodity-related stocks and exporters. This can be seen in the sharp selloff in commodities today (oil -3.4% at 75.35, gold -0.5% at 1182, OIH -3.5%).
Third, emerging markets ETFs are under pressure as the emerging markets are historically highly correlated, where a macro event that adversely affects one region has typically raised the risk profile for other developing regions. This weakness is evident in the EDC (Direxion 3x bull emerging markets) -8.0%, EEM (iShares Emerging Markets) -2.9%, EWT (Taiwan ETF) -2.7%, EWZ (Brazil) -2.6%. However, in this particular situation, a sharp sell-off in emerging markets with no relationship to Dubai which have their own fundamental catalysts, such as Brazil (EWZ), fears may be over exaggerated and could present a buying opportunity. In addition to emerging markets in general, the profile of other unique geographies such as Macau may be questioned, which is being reflected in stocks with exposure there such as MGM -4.8%, LVS -4.5%, WYNN -3.8%, MPEL -3.3%.
Fourth, financials and insurers were under notable pressure, as this sector likely has the most "real" exposure to Dubai. JP Morgan noted this morning that banks' exposures to Dubai World debt are relatively limited and are less of a concern compared to the spillover effects for related entities. The firm said the most exposed banks would be RBS with $0.23 bln, DB and CS with $0.17 bln each, followed by HBC and MTU. It is difficult to find disclosure of banks' exposure to Dubai, but JP Morgan noted that BCS, C are among other banks with exposure to the UAE as a whole. While insurers' portfolios are adversely impacted by a decline in world markets, it is hard to say which insurers might have direct exposure to the Dubai situation. We'd note that the credit default swaps of the major insurers are slightly higher today, led by AXA, RDN, Allianz, Zurich, MTG, Aegon (AEG), AVIVA (AV), PMI and MET.
Finally, increased volatility is a factor that comes hand in hand with a shock to the markets such as today's sell-off. This is illustrated by the 14% spike in the VIX....
APWR doing very nicely today; down hard at open but now up over a dollar.
'peeker
ps> Why is it that the financial industry uses INDEXES as plural form of INDEX? I mean, afterall, the plural form of INDEX should be INDICES.
IMHO, if you are looking to bottom fish, today will not be the best day to pick up bargains. Short day today in US mkts, so don't expect stabilization til sometime next week as fallout from Dubai World issues is better known.
Foreign Currency ETFs: Pick One (or many) if you think $US is a POS. See this list of ETFs for investing in non-US currencies.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/31129-currency-etfs-and-etns
It's days like these I wish I were trading thru Interactive Brokers so I could get live quotes and trade directly on Canadian and other non-US exchanges.
'peeker
GLD: Even Sri Lanka is getting in on the action: IMF announces sale of 10 metric tons of gold to Sri Lanka - DJ (116.40 +1.67). IMF says sale conducted on basis of market prices prevailing on November 23 - Reuters
GLD: US Mint says to temporarily suspend American Eagle 1-oz gold coin sales as demand depletes inventory - Reuters (116.49 +1.76)
GOLD: Even Sri Lanka is getting in on the action: IMF announces sale of 10 metric tons of gold to Sri Lanka - DJ (116.40 +1.67). IMF says sale conducted on basis of market prices prevailing on November 23 - Reuters
ALSO: US Mint says to temporarily suspend American Eagle 1-oz gold coin sales as demand depletes inventory - Reuters (116.49 +1.76)
TRGD mm seems to have left the bldg...
I'm seeing .40x.45 now which is a wider than normal spread.
13:50 RODM/GEOI: Rodman & Renshaw (RODM) announces pricing of GeoResources (GEOI) 3 mln common stock offering at $10.20 (GEOI now at 10.70 +0.29)
I agree; bulk sample results were forecast for November; let's hope they are not playing another game of "2 weeks".
The more people that email Mr. Biscuit asking for bulk sample results the better.
'peeker
ps> feeling sort of silly for adding at .42 today.
So you are expecting the drilling announcement then?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=43865636
TTIL: It sounds like they are increasing R&D of their platform after revenues latest qtr were less than prior yr. In other words, the focus on R&D may compromise their efforts to maintain profitability by cutting costs.
Still, it appears to be a good bet at this level, so I've got a lowball bid in just in case it hits.
'peeker
ps: lately I've been raising portfolio cash percent to mitigate risk in case of downturn, particularly lightening up on stocks with little daily volume. Remain most heavily invested in gold juniors.
BTO.to/BGLPF.pk: Emerging Stock Report Initiates Independent Research Coverage on B2Gold Corp.
* Press Release
* Source: Emerging Stock Report
* On 10:50 am EST, Wednesday November 25, 2009
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Buzz up! 0
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CALGARY, Alberta, Nov. 25, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Emerging Stock Report, a leading provider of sector specific independent investment research, today initiated coverage on B2Gold Corp. (TSX:BTO - News). Emerging Stock Report is currently offering a complimentary trial subscription to the investment community.
To view the Report in its entirety visit: http://www.emergingstockreport.com
To get our alerts AHEAD of the market follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/EmergingStockRe
09:36 RTK: Rentech shares climbing higher as news of GE partnership crosses desks-- Adelaide Now (now at 1.75 +0.50)
Australian newspaper Adelaide Now reports SYNGAS has teamed up with global technology providers Rentech and General Electric to progress South Australia's $3 billion coal-biomass-to-diesel Clinton project. This week, US fuel company Rentech (RTK) came on board to provide preliminary engineering services at the proposed site, located approximately 120 km northwest of Adelaide. Rentech, which is also helping Beach Petroleum advance its unconventional gas reserves in the Cooper Basin, will provide its Fischer-Tropsch fuels production technology for the project in the first quarter of 2010. The current agreement is to review the use of Rentech's FT technology for the production of ultra-clean synthetic transportation fuels from synthesis gas (syngas) derived from fossil and biomass resources. The Fischer-Tropsch process has been around for more than 50 years and is used to produce a synthetic petroleum substitute, typically from coal, natural gas or biomass, for use as synthetic lubrication oil or as synthetic fuel. The preliminary review could lead to a licensing agreement with Rentech for its FT technology, Syngas' executive director Merrill Gray said. Syngas already has an exclusive arrangement with with General Electric Company and General Electric International Inc for the supply of gas and steam turbines and is in talks with drying technology and gas conditioning technology providers.
IAE.v/IACAF.pk: Should we expect any more short-term news events? Is IAE in process of bidding on any other assets in North Sea, or are they focusing entirely on existing assets while waiting for the market to "catch-on" to the fact that IAE is verrrry undervalued?
It's strange that the market is not giving this jewel its due, at least not yet. Perhaps it's seen as too British ? ? ?
'peeker
07:03 TGA: Transglobe Energy provides capital program and targets for 2010 (3.61)
Co is planning a 30% increased capital budget for 2010 and increased production and funds flow for 2010. Co has projected its 2010 capital budget at $46.1 million representing a 30% increase over 2009. The development budget of $37.3 million is targeting 3,000 barrels of oil per day ("Bopd") of new production and 8.7 million barrels of Proved plus Probable reserve additions during 2010. The exploration budget of $8.8 million will test prospects with a total recoverable oil potential of 54 million barrels gross or 21 million barrels to TransGlobe's working interest (unrisked, mean case, internal estimate). It is anticipated the Company will fund its entire 2010 capital budget from funds flow and working capital. Co has projected funds flow from operations for 2010 of $55 mln based on an average dated Brent oil price of $65.00/Bbl and mid-point of production guidance. The 2010 funds flow sensitivity to a change in oil price is approximately $1.0 mln per dollar change in dated Brent (i.e. $65 mln for $75.00/Bbl dated Brent). The 2010 funds flow forecast is based on an estimated production target of 9,300 to 9,700 Bopd (firm plus contingent budget), with a targeted exit rate over 10,000 Bopd.
Sold 3Ksh WEMU today @ $4.75; still holding 5Ksh.
'peeker
Sold 3Ksh WEMU today @ $4.75; still holding 5Ksh; glad I waited for a nice move reather than dumping $3-$4 after the earnings disappointment awhile back.
09:50 SEED: Origin Agritech: Small cap Chinese ag stocks showing continued momentum today (11.48 +1.03)
Small cap Chinese ag stocks are showing continued momentum today as SEED extends another 10% following yesterday's 100%+ move. Although off their early highs, FEED (+10%) is leading the group now, followed by NOEC (+5.3%) and COIN (+5.0%)... To recap, today's strength comes on the heels of yesterday's announcement by SEED that it had received the Bio-safety Certificate from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture as a final approval for commercial approval of the world's first genetically modified phytase corn. SEED was subsequently upgraded to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw with a $15 tgt, who said the award was potentially game changing event that should have a materially positive impact to shareholder value.
09:11: May impact WEMU profitability if their solar cell suppliers do not lower their prices for WEMU.
DigiTimes reports although photovoltaic (PV) modules in China and Europe have lowered their quotes for first-quarter of 2010 by 10-15% from current levels, solar cell makers in Taiwan and China are unwilling to follow suit and insist on maintaining the current prices for the coming quarter, according to industry sources in Taiwan. The solar cell makers are reluctant to lower quotes because they have strong orders for the fourth quarter and the outlook for coming quarter is also good, the sources said. But PV module makers are showing reluctance to commit to the current prices solar cell makers are quoting for the first quarter. Some module makers have only been willing to sign memoranda of understanding with cell makers for first-quarter 2010 supply, rather than contracts that require pre-payments, the sources indicated.
SEED: SEED is now up 61% after announcing that it has received the Bio-safety Certificate from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture as a final approval for commercial approval of the world's first genetically modified phytase corn. The stock has a small float of just 13.7 mln shares and has traded the heaviest volume in over a year this morning. See our 1:30 comment for original news posting.
Origin Agritech upgraded to Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw; tgt $15 (8.36 +3.16)
GORO: Gene, you are right. We have not heard that they have sold the first load of concentrate yet. My expectation is we should see some news in next couple of weeks about sale of concentrate, and not sure when they will publicly state an expected date for cyanide leaching and pouring of gold bars. IMHO, they are not keeping shareholders as up to date as they should with news releases, but I still expect they will announce some details this week or next.
'peeker
ps> If you could call Jason Reid, I'm sure he can explain their plans better (and more officially) than I.
GORO is in production now, that is, the crushing mill is in operation now, and other equipment is coming online soon (if not already) so that GORO output is "concentrate", crushed gold ore if you will. BUT they will not do the cyanide leaching and pour their own gold bars until early next year. The issue seems to be one of on-site training of locals to efficiently operate a safe cyanide leach process can be performed safely. In effect they will not get the additional profitability that comes with pouring their own gold bars until the full operation can be done on site. Until then they will contract sale of their concentrate to s company that carries it by ship to their smelter. Not sure who the other company is though.
GORO gets paid when delivered to the dock, where small assays are conducted to determine approx gold content. I think GORO gets 90% of gold value then and the remainder after that company ships the concentrate to their smelter and pours the gold bars. In other words, neither GORO nor the other company knows exactly how much gold is in the concentrate until the bars are poured.
By selling the concentrate now, they can begin generating strong cash flow, but cost per ounce is higher than if they were doing the whole operation thru pouring gold bars themselves.
Regards,
'peeker
ps> If you have any other questions about current status of ops at the mill, call Jason Reid.
Do you know CGA.to cost to produce an ounce of gold? Open pit is great, but the recovery of 1.30g/tonne is not particularly encouraging.
Thanks for your DD, as I'm looking for another strong gold producer.
'peeker
Gold scratching at $1150/oz . . . wow . . . makes the unhedged gold miners look really good here.
'peeker
Wade, RE: PRIM: You aren't paranoid; it's real; some guy at Merrill Lynch is doing this to extract an ounce of retribution from you for making all that money on BAC stock.
AGT: Anyone heard any details yet about October avg grade?
PRIMW (PRIM $5 warrant) gives leverage vs. PRIM.
If PRIM goes from 8 to 12 (up50%),
then PRIMW goes from about 3.2 to about 7.2 (up >100%).
'peeker
Monty, re: AGT, I'm not the right guy to ask, but the potential to show mineralization all the way from Grey Fox to Black Fox will add materially to their gold reserves down the road as they complete all drilling and can calculate new numbers across the property.
News on current yield at the mill and an operations update are what I really want to hear about; shareholders need to know they are achieving over 4g/tonne consistently; this is where I feel we have the greatest risk.
'peeker
ps> curlews made a good point about the way they are reporting drilling results, that is, trying to make it sound better than it really is, which is not reassuring.
Apollo Gold Announces Additional Assay Results for Its Grey Fox Drilling Program:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Apollo-Gold-Announces-bw-2409819383.html?x=0&.v=1
Excerpt:
“Drilling continues to intersect mineralized zones within the identified Contact Fault Zone,” says Richard Nanna, Vice President-Exploration for Apollo. “It is also encouraging that all holes drilled and assayed to date have intersected the mineralization and indicate that it may continue to trend onto our newly acquired Pike River Property. We are now in the planning stages of developing a drilling program to follow the mineralization north onto Pike River.”
Hawthorne Gold publishes new National Instrument 43-101 Technical Report and Resource Estimate of Frasergold Deposit
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hawthorne-Gold-and-Eureka-iw-2445631530.html?x=0&.v=1
Paulson & Co. to launch new gold fund January 1; Billionaire John Paulson to personally invest about $250 mln in new gold fund
RGN just took off; up 25% on x5 normal daily volume; don't see any news ???
Wade, BAC outlook: John Paulson bets Bank of America will almost double by end of 2011 - Bloomberg.com (15.94 +0.17)
Bloomberg.com reports Paulson & Co., the hedge fund co run by billionaire John Paulson, told investors Bank of America's stock will almost double in the next two years as writedowns ease. Bank of America may rise to $29.81 by December 2011, Paulson said in a quarterly letter to clients. A copy was obtained by Bloomberg News. "Banks will have passed the current writedown cycle and have visibility for growth in 2012," the letter said. Bank of America dropped to $2.53 in February amid concern that the U.S. might seize banks that ran short on capital. While the bank "has risen from when we purchased the stock, we believe considerable upside remains," the letter said.
Housing Starts Crater
The talk that housing starts were stabilizing hit a snag in October as new housing starts plummeted 10.6% to 529,000 units from 592,000. The consensus forecasted an increase in starts to 600,000.
The details in the data don't look pretty.
Single family starts fell 6.8% to 476,000 and is at its lowest level since May.
Multi-family starts fell a whopping 34.5% as only 53,000 new units were started. Multi-family starts have never been this low since the index was created in 1959.
It is difficult to analyze this month's data. On one hand, it's easy to state that builders realized that the housing market continues to be oversaturated with excess supply and builders are again making drastic cutbacks. However, while single family starts declined a substantial amount, the levels are still over 100,000 higher than they were at January's lows. If builders truly wanted to pull back from the market, it would be expected that single family starts would fall by a much greater percentage.
It could be that builders were worried about the possible end to the first-time homebuyers tax credit. Without the additional stimulus money, many potential buyers would be priced out of the market. In October there was still a hot debate in Congress on whether or not to extend the credit. Even though it eventually passed, builders may have held up on new starts until they got a better understanding of what was going to happen on the fiscal side.
It's tougher to grasp why multi-family units fell to new historic lows. All economic fundamentals suggest heightened demand for rental units over the next several years, which would obviously act as an incentive for building multi-family properties. However, as more single-family homes enter foreclosure, these homes are becoming very attractive to investors to be used as rental properties. Many families would prefer to live in a single family home rather than an apartment building.
The big question now is: Where do starts go from here? At the beginning of the year, we thought housing starts would stay around 500,000 through the middle of 2010. Incentives through fiscal policy and quantitative easing propped up the real estate market and helped push starts to between 580,000 and 590,000 units. If the decline in October was due to uncertainty regarding the end date of the first-time homebuyer tax credit, then starts should rebound back to the 580,000 to 590,000 unit range. If the decline is due to oversaturation in the market, starts could fall precipitously back to 500,000 units.
Building permits were higher than housing starts, but still declined 4.0% to 552,000. Not all permits are used to build a house and the drop from September could be seen as an indicator that starts in November could continue to decline.
Total homes currently under construction fell 3.4% from its previous historical low of 580,000 in September to 560,000 units in October.
Housing completions increased 1.9% to 740,000 units.
Why China Is An Ideal Market for Plug-In Electric Cars
By EV World Television
Yibing Wu, the Managing Director of Beijing-based Legend Holdings, briefs The Business of Plugging In conference
In this video from "The Business Of Plugging In 2009" conference, Yibing Wu, the the Managing Director of Beijing-based Legend Holdings, gives his perspective on why China is rushing to develop and introduce plug-in electric vehicles, noting a number of key factors driving this trend including:
* Like the USA, it is China's national strategy to reduce it dependence on imported oil and cut its overall carbon foot print.
* The recognition that 40-55% of pollution in China comes from transportation sector and must be controlled.
* China sees a shift to electric drive as a way to leap frog past the investment in an IC engine infrastructure, putting the nation on an equal footing with international competitors.
China is well on its way to wide acceptance of electric vehicles with tens of millions of electric bicycles and scooters already on its streets. While most are still powered by lead-acid batteries, the 80% that do utilize lithium ion batteries in China come from a subsidiary of Legend Holdings.
Mr. Wu also noted that because most Chinese are first time buyers of any type of automotive product, their expectations for the technology aren't as high as Western car buyers and they tend to be more "forgiving." Also, most Chinese affluent enough to afford a car, live in China's largest cities and have short commute distances; again, ideal for adoption of plug-in cars.
Because the Central Government charges excise taxes that can double the price of a car, it has a lot of latitude in the way of economic incentives to help stimulate BEV and PHEV sales in the nation. It now provides the equivalent of a US$9,000 tax credit for the purchase of an pure electric car; and US$7,500 for a hybrid.
Recently, the government designated three cities to serve as electric car demonstration centers starting in 2011. It's monopoly control of the national power grid also provides it with the ability to encourage consumer purchases of electric drive vehicles. Beijing has set a goal of producing half a million hybrid and plug-in vehicles annually starting in 2012
However, for all its strengths, Wu acknowledged that China's car industry is still highly fragmented and continues to lag behind the West in its IC engine technology, which is a critical component in the development of PHEVs. This, he said, offers OEMs in the West the opportunity to participate in the spread of EV technology in China.