full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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RODM: Don't they still have some derivatives exposure? It does appear to have hit a short-term bottom though.
OT: Just curious. Anybody subscribing to Tom Calandra's "Ticker Trax" annual service?
Stockhouse has his current stock picks and performance at:
http://www.stockhouse.com/MyStockhouse/ViewMyAllInfo.aspx?u=3109444
Thanks,
'peeker
ps> Looks like it's of marginal value, but I decided to try the service discounted 75% with 30day moneyback guarantee.
That's what happens when you are long OF gold and short OF John Holmes.
'peeker
ps> Also feeling short OF pixels.
08:49 Broadpoint AmTech trimming EPS ests for POT, MOS, IPI and AGU on new potash estimates
Broadpoint AmTech notes following the potash contract settlement with China for $350/mt CFR (~$300/mt FOB mine), it is adjusting 2010 and 2011 EPS ests. New 2010E EPS are based on realized offshore prices of $330/mt (versus prior $365) and domestic US prices of $370/mt (versus prior $400). For 2011, it expects prices to firm up to $365/mt offshore and $400 domestic. While somewhat disappointed that the price was at the low end of firm's expectation, it believes it will prove sufficient to spur global demand as it gives buyers confidence that a floor price has been established. Firm expects the demand picture to improve significantly in 2010 and beyond and remain confident that improving potash fundamentals going into the seasonally strong spring planting season will propel the potash stocks higher in the near-term. Firm is trimming EPS ests for POT, MOS, IPI and AGU. Firm believes the stage is set for a meaningful re-acceleration in fundamentals in CY2010 that will lead to higher earnings and multiple expansion.
OT: eBay special of the day includes a Samsung 24" Full-HD 1080p Widescreen LCD Display... refurbed, but a great deal for $214.99 each (free shipping). If you want to upgrade your stock monitoring capability, this is a great LCD monitor for stock traders. I've got 4 of the 22" monitors, but I'm thinking of buying 2 of these as an upgrade (???Christmas present???).
http://cgi.ebay.com/Samsung-24-Full-HD-1080p-Widescreen-LCD-Display_W0QQitemZ180446962976QQcategoryZ80053QQcmdZViewItem
'peeker
OT: Well, I wouldn't know, Bobby V; do you have personal experience with the fundamentals of Viagra, or is this strictly a technical call on your "part"?
Oh, wait, does Medicaid cover little blue pills?
;>) 'peeker
HGC.v / HWTHF.pk and MTO.v / MEAOF.pk: Time to dump 'em???
In this declining gold price environment (and I think it does go a bit lower before it heads back toward $1200/pz), it may be prudent to dump the companies that have a relatively high cost of production or with a large percentage of low grade ores.
I'm thinking it may be a good idea to sell my HGC.v / HWTHF.pk and MTO.v / MEAOF.pk at this point. Does anyone have a strong opinion for or against either of these stocks?
Thanks for any insights / opinions.
'peeker
ENTZ: I was confused by the release detail which made it sound like the last day to get the dividend was 12/18. Almost sold today myself.
MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Entrx Corporation (Pink Sheets: ENTZ - News), with principal offices in Minneapolis, Minnesota and operations in Fullerton, California, announced that on December 4, 2009, the board of directors declared a dividend of $0.10 per share on Entrx Corporation’s common stock, payable on December 28, 2009, to shareholders of record on December 18, 2009.
Looks like CMTX subscriptions are NOT the sourse of the majority of their revenues.
09:48 Belarussian Potash Company expects to sign a deal before year's end for supply of potash to China in 2010 - Haaretz.com (109.99 +4.98)
Potash stocks are trading higher this morning (MOS +4.2%, POT +4.2%) after Goldman upgraded MOS and added POT to their Conviction Buy List. Separately, news that Belarussian Potash Company is expecting to sign a deal with China for a potash supply contract for 2010 is also providing upside in POT. Haaretz.com reported BPC, the Belarussian Potash Co expects to sign a deal before year's end for supply of potash to China in 2010, according to Oleg Petrov, the company's head of sales, Bloomberg reports. BPC might change its business model in China in 2011 and switch over to spot sales of potash, as opposed to its current approach, which is based on multi-year or annual supply contracts. The anticipated shift is the result of the recent drop in the Chinese market's dependence on potash imports, due to the growth in Chinese production capacity. The potash price on the Chinese spot market was recently $360 to $370 per ton, including insurance and freight. According to analysts' reports and other assessments, potash supply contracts to China next year are being struck in the range of $300 to $350 per ton, not including freight.
THE COXE STRATEGY JOURNAL
December 2009: Financial Heroin
INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS:
1. Remain underweighted in US equities—as a percentage of equities within
global portfolios, and as a percentage of assets in US balanced portfolios.
Underweight US bonds in global portfolios.
The long-term fi nancial projections for the US are scary, even if one accepts
the Obama assumptions: ten years of large defi cits, no recessions, strong,
sustained economic growth, and a mere 1% increase in Treasury yields.
Those numbers make no allowance for the costs of health care, which
will be huge. Debilitating tax increases are inevitable, even if the global
warming “cap and tax” legislation does not pass.
2. Within US equity portfolios, underweight US economy-related stocks and
overweight stocks tied to foreign economies.
US stocks outperformed after Obama’s election, but that created what
could be called erogenous risk for investors. As long as the KRE continues
to underperform both the BKX and S&P, risks of a double-dip economy
remain.
3. Overweight Emerged Markets (such as China, Hong Kong, Brazil, India
and Korea) within global and international equity portfolios.
These markets should no longer be discounted heavily because of assumed
gaps between their accounting and American practices. The credibility gap
has been narrowed signifi cantly. The FASB’s capitulation to Congressional
pressure on big banks’ balance sheets is a sign that Volcker-style virtue is
outdated.
4. Remain overweight commodity stocks within balanced accounts and
equity-only accounts.
Strong commodity-oriented companies are tied to global growth trends,
led by the Asian powerhouses, which means they have less endogenous
risk than companies tied to the US and Europe.
5. Emphasize gold stocks in commodity stock accounts.
Gold and other precious metals appear to have entered a period of aboveaverage
volatility, but the unprecedented creation of paper money and
national debts means ownership of the metals and producers will tend
to reduce endogenous risk in most portfolios. The stocks will tend to
outperform bullion on the upside; the bullion will outperform on the
downside.
6. Continue to overweight the agriculture stocks.
The best-performing commodity group in the past three months has
been the agricultural stocks, led by the machinery and fertilizer stocks.
Street analysts turned negative on these groups during the summer, when
it looked as if US crop production would reach painful levels. Then the
weather intervened. We remain of the view that the best of the agriculture
stocks are among the best-quality core positions among all equities.
7. Maintain exposure to the energy stocks, but continue to emphasize oil
producers and to de-emphasize natural gas producers.
Oil and natural gas are both in oversupply at the moment. The difference is
that crude oil prices remain strong despite oversupply, as oil companies and
speculators hoard oil in anticipation of stronger demand next year—and
in fear of a new Mideast war. Shale gas may be too readily available to
be good short-term news for either the profi ts or stock prices of oil and
gas producers—but Exxon’s move on XTO shows what having huge shale
reserves can do for takeover values in politically-secure terrain.
8. Base metal stock prices are somewhat riskier than those of other commodity
groups, but are worth holding.
The producers are dependent on China’s willingness to continue to buy
more metal than it needs for current consumption.
9. Within balanced portfolios, emphasize long-duration, high-quality
bonds at the expense of Cash. Canadian bonds should be used by foreign
investors, where possible, as alternatives to Treasurys and US corporates.
Cash isn’t a true risk reducer, because it delivers no yield and cannot rise
if there’s a new panic. If you must own something that pays you nothing,
buy gold. In contrast, long-duration bonds are the best hedge against a
renewed economic downturn.
10. Canada offers better government, better governance, a better currency, and
a better stock market than the USA. Buy Canadian.
The fl ip side to this is a wise balance sheet policy for Canadian companies.
Borrowing in American dollars makes sense for Canadian exporters and
resource companies—and for some other Canadian industries. Take
advantage of (1) Bernanke’s heroin injections into US debt markets, and
(2) Canada’s new fi nancial prestige to reduce your endogenous currency
risk by bulking up your borrowing in greenbacks.
OT: Kozuh, you crazy Mexican. You are a man who lives in the wrong time and missed your true calling. You should have been there to work for Daniel Boone and David Bowie in defending the Alamo. But no, by some twisted trick of fate, you are here in my time to ruin my run of the MILL wet dreams.
PRLS: About a year ago they sold a large piece of the company. Since then they've NOT given shareholders a dividend but rather continued to pay themselves salary. I held the stock for awhile thinking a dividend announcement would eventually come, but no, mgt decided to just take a break and do nothing for awhile and hold the cash.
One would think they would eventually buy another company or something, but as one caller mentioned in a quarterly conf call (about a yr ago), those guys should be ashamed of themselves. I'd go a step further and say somebody ought to take them out behind the woodshed and spank their arrogant behinds.
If anyone has clarity as to how they might plan to grow the company again, I'd love to know about it, but they've so far failed to take care of their shareholders' interests by distributing any cash.
Regards,
'peeker
Waiting to turn green (like mold) by the Ol' MILL stream. Just caught a pinch at $1.30, but I do expect it to go lower so I won't chase anymore for now.
Appreciate your perspective as always. My main source of apprehension is the claim in the news release as to what they had bought for a few million dollars. Somehow it sounds too good to be true, which makes me think it probably is too good to be true:
The discounted net present value of the Alaska reserves that Miller has acquired is over $325 million dollars, including $119 million dollars of proven reserves, $185 million of probable reserves and $23 million in possible reserves.
In addition, Miller has acquired onshore and offshore production and processing facilities, an offshore energy platform, over 600,000 net acres of land with thousands of acres of 3-D geologic seismic data, miscellaneous roads, pads and facilities all of which originally cost almost $300 million to build and install over the last 5 years.
I read somewhere that XTO (make that XOM) has property near some of what MILL acquired, so it may be that their exit strategy is to build Exxon's interest in the property and then sell out w/o spending much to upgrade probable and possible reserves to the more bankable proven reserves.
Run of the MILL appears to have abated. Volume has fallen off since the first hour today. Looks like it may fall back as momo traders decide to take some profits.
JMHO
'peeker
OT: with all due respects, cut the political commentary/crap Hank...
Hey, I know, go post a SELL MILL message on some boards today so I can get some cheaper.
Hey Zen, go get him!!!
Thanks for pounding table on GDMN:
OT: Hoping GDMN eventually does change their symbol. Everytime I see the symbol, I remember Billy Crystal's old man routine where he keeps swearing in his ornery way, "GDMN it!"
'peeker
ps> At this point, however, I'm glad I own it, though I wish I'd bought it cheaper. GDMN it!
NXT.v / NTCXF.pk: (up a little on today's news)
Question: Anybody know enough to say whether their technology actually DOES provide a way to produce solar panels more cheaply than are already in the mktplace? I think they are trying to produce film-based panels.
____________________________________________________________
Natcore Achieves Key Milestone in Initial Testing at Ohio State University
9:02a ET December 18, 2009 (Market Wire)
Natcore Technology Inc. (TSX VENTURE: NXT) ("Natcore" or the "Company") is pleased to announce successful initial testing results from the Company's liquid phase deposition (LPD) research and development program being conducted in the facilities of Ohio State University.
Specifically, Natcore Technology researchers working at Ohio State University have demonstrated that Natcore's room-temperature, LPD silicon dioxide antireflection (AR) coating is the complete equivalent of the elevated-temperature CVD coatings used by the industry today. Importantly, however, the Natcore process produces the coatings at a significant reduction in cost.
Natcore's scientists used the Company's process to deposit a single-layer AR coating with a reflectance minimum of less than 8% for wavelengths of light in the range of values that maximize the output of a standard silicon solar cell. This performance equals or exceeds industry-standard single-layer AR coating performance for this material.
"We hit the target on what is essentially our first try in the program at Ohio State," notes Chuck Provini, Natcore's president and CEO. "We've already achieved industry standard levels for anti-reflectance, and we fully expect to significantly improve the results with further refinement of our LPD process in the near future. Moreover, these results provide the final testing data needed for potential joint-venture partners, and we intend to proceed aggressively along this front."
Brien Lundin, Natcore's Chairman, adds that, "It is particularly gratifying that this R&D program is being conducted with personnel and facilities previously employed by NewCyte, Inc. Natcore's acquisition of NewCyte is thus providing early dividends, and we're excited about continuing to leverage these assets to more-rapidly advance our technology."
ENTZ down a dime today (representing .10 dividend to those who own it at start of the day on 12/18/09, that is, today).
You said you think they will still hold .40 cash per share and have book value of .80 per share AFTER the dividend?
Have you (or anyone) heard anything negative about this company since they announced the 10 divvy? For instance, do they plan on doing any real business or just paying their own salaries and passing out dividends when an insider needs more cash?
Just probing here to see if anybody knows more now than a couple of wks ago.
'peeker
ps> I'm own some ENTZ.
Hochschild got their shares for $8.185/share.
Boooooooo!!! Too much of a discount for the big insider.
MILL: I'm seeing only 9.2million sh in the float of 21.22 total shares. Also seeing 56.65% insider ownership, so I won't be surprised to see mgt "take it private" eventually to keep the big profits for mgt.
Time will tell; tried to lowball it the other day but didn't catch it. Not sure if I will decide to chase it or not.
'peeker
GSS: Completing the stock offering at 3.75 was pretty surprising since they've now dropped to 3.15.
MILL: Company now owns large assets but has no cash to develop. Do you expect them to JV these assets or just sell them off 1-by-1 at some discount to other oil companies?
'peeker
Koz (Tonto), don't mess with the Kimosabe.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Lone Ranger and Tonto are camping in the desert. They set up their tent and are soon asleep. Some hours later, The Lone Ranger wakes his faithful friend. "Tonto, look up at the sky and tell me what you see."
Tonto replies, "Me see millions of stars, Kimosabe."
What does that tell you?" asks The Lone Ranger.
Tonto ponders for a minute. "Astronomically speaking, it tells me
there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets. Astrologically, it tells me that Saturn is in Leo. Chronologically, it appears to be approximately quarter past three. Theologically, it's evident the Lord is all-powerful, and we are small and insignificant. Meteorologically, it seems we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. What does it tell you, Kimosabe?"
The Lone Ranger is silent for a moment, then says, "Tonto, you
dumb-ass. Someone has stolen our tent."
Hawthorne Gold 43-101
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Hawthorne-Gold-and-Eureka-ccn-4155915131.html?x=0&.v=1
As stated in the Technical Report, "The previous geochemical sampling and drilling programs on the property have demonstrated mineralization continues to depth thus increasing the previous defined width of the Main Zone. Drilling has also demonstrated mineralization continues down dip in particular areas along the strike of the Main zone and that potential continues to exist along strike which is further demonstrated by soil grid results emanating from a soil sampling program conducted over 1 km from the Main Zone along strike towards the Northwest."
IACAF.pk ... OK, I admit I own it and like it, too. They appear to be executing well as they grow their business, particularly in the North Sea, which was THE hot spot for deep drilling doodlebuggers 30yrs ago.
'peeker
ps> BTW, I used to be a geophysicist/doodlebugger myself in a prior life riding geophysical boats for Western Geophysical. It was a great job, allowing me to travel the world right out of college. Glad I didn't catch anything visiting all those seaports in Asia and the Mediterranean.
For nitrogen, just plant pnuts, bubba Bobby.
12:50 SIF: SIFCO Industries reports Q4 results (15.50 -0.25)
Co reports Q4 EPS of $0.30 and revs of $20.9 mln (no ests). Co says the Repair and ACM Groups' businesses continue to be heavily dependent upon the strength of the commercial airlines as well as aircraft and related engine manufacturers. Consequently, the performance of the domestic and international air transport industry directly and significantly impacts the performance of the Repair and ACM Groups' businesses. The financial condition of many airlines in the U.S. and throughout the world, while showing improvement, continues to be weak. Modest improvements in the commercial airlines and the relatively stable to slightly declining demand in the commercial aircraft and related engine industries have been complemented by relatively strong U.S. military spending for aircraft and related components. The air transport industry's long-term outlook is for continued, steady growth. Such longer-term outlook suggests the need for additional aircraft and, therefore, growth in the requirement for airframe and engine components as well as aerospace turbine engine repairs.
CSGH: Great, recommended by NIA yesterday
http://www.inflation.us/csgh.html
China Sun Group High-Tech Co. (CSGH)
NIA believes one of the best ways to diversify out of the U.S. dollar is with China stocks, and one of the upcoming trends we must pay attention to as a hedge against inflation is the lithium market. Many lithium companies have started to substantially appreciate to the upside during the recent months and we feel that investors that are ahead of the lithium curve now could capitalize significantly during the upcoming economic crisis and restructuring of the world.
Companies like Apple, Hewlett-Packard, and Nokia started using rechargeable lithium ion batteries a decade ago, and today there are millions of iPods, computers and mobile phones that are using advanced lithium ion battery technology.
Lithium is now taking the automobile battery market by storm and will be at the forefront of a new trend for Wall Street as well as Main Street. No other metal is better at holding a charge and dissipating heat with as little weight, making lithium the best ingredient known to make batteries for electric cars. Such batteries use a derivative called lithium carbonate to hold the electricity they get when plugged into an outlet to be charged.
The automobile industry already plans to introduce dozens of electric models with lithium batteries within the next three years. Furthermore, carmakers are betting that electric vehicles built to run on lithium batteries will help the industry recover from its worst crisis in three decades. President Obama’s administration is already providing $11 billion in loans and grants to car and battery makers to reduce the country’s dependence on foreign oil.
In our opinion, the companies that are positioned to capitalize on this new market trend will prosper during the upcoming crisis. One company in particular has caught our eye in this industry and we think everyone should take the time to do some due diligence on it while it is still at the current levels because we feel there is huge upside potential going into 2010.
The company is China Sun Group High-Tech Co. trading in the U.S. under ticker symbol CSGH.
CSGH produces anode materials used in lithium ion batteries. CSGH primarily produces cobaltosic oxide and lithium cobalt oxide.
CSGH is in the perfect industry at the perfect time and is also located in the perfect country - China, the fastest and largest growing nation in the world! According to the China Battery Industry Association, CSGH has the second largest cobalt series production capacity in the People's Republic of China.
Through its research and development division, CSGH owns a proprietary series of nanometer technologies that supply state-of-the-art components for advanced lithium ion batteries. Leveraging its state-of-the-art technology, high-quality product line and scalable production capacity, CSGH plans to create a fully integrated supply chain from the primary manufacturing of cobalt ore to finished products, including lithium ion batteries.
I’m sure many of you saw the hottest IPO this year, A123 Systems (AONE). AONE was a way for investors to play the lithium craze as the company is a lithium battery manufacturer. In our opinion, a much better way to play the upcoming lithium boom is with the producers of the lithium battery components themselves, because these components are valuable commodities. The largest U.S.-based publicly traded lithium battery component company, Rockwood Holdings Inc. (ROC), surged from a low this year of $3.36 to its current price of $24.05.
CSGH is a profitable company, which is hard to come by as this industry is at the forefront of its market acceptance. CSGH has grown revenues from about $8.2 million in 2007, to $25.3 million in 2008, and to over $37 million in 2009. CSGH’s net income has grown from $417k in 2007 to over $8.5 million this year. In our opinion, CSGH has the potential to continue growing strong for many years to come. CSGH also has a solid balance sheet with no debt and over $11.6 million in cash.
CSGH recently announced that its lithium iron phosphate product met the required technical specifications and now has 21 customers undergoing technical testing of the product for their own use. CSGH also announced that it has signed a letter of intent with Beijing Zhongxinlian to jointly produce its new lithium iron phosphate-based batteries for use in electric vehicles under the registered brand name of "ShenKun."
CSGH has effectively transformed itself into an end-to-end supplier in the lithium ion battery space, providing all parts of the supply chain from raw materials to finished product.
The world’s auto companies plan 42 new electric models by 2012, according to an October study by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Instead of running on gasoline, these vehicles will be powered by lithium batteries that are charged with electricity made in plants fueled by coal, natural gas, nuclear power, solar power and wind.
By 2020, one in 10 cars manufactured -- or more than 6 million vehicles -- may be powered by lithium batteries, says Carlos Ghosn, chief executive officer of Nissan Motor Co. Car battery sales could jump to $103 billion a year in the next two decades, up from $100 million a year as of October 2009, according to a report by Credit Suisse Group AG. Ventures backed by A123 Systems Inc., Dow Chemical Co. and Johnson Controls Inc. are planning to ramp up production of lithium car batteries or cells.
The lithium market is set to boom headed into the New Year and we feel CSGH is one company everyone should add to their watch list as it seems to be the most overlooked lithium company we have come across with the most significant upside potential.
CSGH up 15%; beat avg daily volume in 30mins
Can't find news. Anyone have a hint why it's moving?
IAX: Rats, tried to buy it on the cheap yesterday and missed it. Congratulations to you and the horse you rode in on.
'peeker
Potash Price Drop in Brazil Signals China Trend, Analysts Say
Share Business Exchange
By Richard Weiss
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- A recent drop in potash prices in Brazil means a contract with China, expected before or shortly after Christmas, may institute an even lower price, analysts said.
Prices have been “dropping sharply” in Brazil, to $400 to $405 per metric ton, from previous attempts by Belarusian Potash, or BPC, to sell for $485 in China, newsletter FMB Weekly Potash Report said on Dec. 10. BPC’s China price often becomes a benchmark for other suppliers. FMB said Brazilian prices have “strangely” come down as demand has been improving in Latin America’s largest economy.
“This is clearly negative news for the whole potash industry,” analyst Christian Faitz at Sal. Oppenheim Jr. & Cie. wrote in a note to clients on Dec. 14. The falling prices are “setting an unwelcome precedent for the looming negotiations” with China. Potash prices will fall into “the $300-something region,” he said.
“China’s deal is still the single most important data point for the market,” Dahlman Rose & Co. analysts Charles Neivert and James Lee said in a Dec. 14 note. “We would see China’s deal being lower” than the prices recently paid in Brazil.
Jim Prokopanko, chief executive officer of Mosaic Co., North America’s second-largest fertilizer maker, said on Dec. 8 he expects China, the world’s largest potash buyer, will agree before Christmas, or shortly after the new year, to buy potash from European producers for less than $400 a metric ton.
“The potash price was reasonably stable during the fourth quarter,” Andreas Heine of Unicredit wrote in a Dec. 11 note. “However, the move in Brazil has a different quality and sets the environment for the contract price with China. The negotiations might come to an end soon.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Weiss in Frankfurt at rweiss5@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 15, 2009 06:36 EST
CS.to news: Study Extends Mine Life, etc.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Capstone-Completed-cnw-1578803764.html?x=0&.v=2
NEP action OK w/ me:
This morning I wished I owned it, so this afternoon I bought it. Looks like it does about 8x daily avg volume today.
12:13 China North East Petroleum trading halted - news pending (7.55 +0.70)
12:13 China North East Petroleum trading halted - news pending (7.55 +0.70)
Thanks, Bob. My recollection is that GORO included some comments recently in a PR stating that Oaxaca has not been heavily explored and mined (commercially) using modern methods, even though there were many small private mines in the early 1900's that successfully used crude exploration and mining techniques (picks, shovels, dynamite, donkeys, and tequila).
The big potential opportunity appears to be mining at depth following veins exposed at the surface as proven by previous crude methods. At any rate, Fortuna and Gold Resource Corp are cranking things up in Oaxaca because they believe there is lots of gold and silver in them there hills.
Hmmm... anyone know how far FVI's San Jose location is from GORO's El Aquila mine in Oaxaca?
13:14 Weak potash prices cause weak potash stock prices
Relative weakness in the potash stocks (POT, MOS, IPI) was attributed to cautious analyst comments overseas about European potash producer K + S, triggered by concern on potash data that came out from Brazil this week. The news was seen as influential to the potash market because K+S is Europe's largest potash producer and the world's fourth largest. Furthermore, talk of pricing in Brazil of $400/ton is probably the lowest in any region. Recent contracts this year that are notable in the potash industry include BPC selling to Brazil for $750-760 in April 2009, K+S selling into Europe for ~$600/ton, suppliers selling to Asia and Latin America at $510-520/ton, and the most recent, IPC's contract settlement with India at $460/ton. Lastly, $400 pricing in Brazil is negatively affecting potash stocks because there has been talk that China may settle under India's contract of $460/ton, so this increases the likelyhood that China will contract at an even a lower price than expected.
13:14 Weak potash prices cause weak potash stock prices
Relative weakness in the potash stocks (POT, MOS, IPI) was attributed to cautious analyst comments overseas about European potash producer K + S, triggered by concern on potash data that came out from Brazil this week. The news was seen as influential to the potash market because K+S is Europe's largest potash producer and the world's fourth largest. Furthermore, talk of pricing in Brazil of $400/ton is probably the lowest in any region. Recent contracts this year that are notable in the potash industry include BPC selling to Brazil for $750-760 in April 2009, K+S selling into Europe for ~$600/ton, suppliers selling to Asia and Latin America at $510-520/ton, and the most recent, IPC's contract settlement with India at $460/ton. Lastly, $400 pricing in Brazil is negatively affecting potash stocks because there has been talk that China may settle under India's contract of $460/ton, so this increases the likelyhood that China will contract at an even a lower price than expected.