Moving the Shrimp to Fiji, if the plan works.
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They will move it right up to the dailies. Pop above, for 30 minutes or so, then rapid decline. Bull trap. After the trap, they will make new 30 day lows and continue to gain my respect as "investors" PE will fall below 20, and I might cover, but I still won't go long.
Yes. That's like saying up is up, and down is down.
I expect a bull trap, but they could do a bear trap, and then switch, and then switch it back or leave it bearish.
Whipsaw. Both ways until the decision is made certain.
It takes two to contango.
AFAIK, SPY is actual shares in a fund, not futures, so it gains nothing from backwardation.
And then you realize, that almost anyone can own a part of the casino by owning the shares and writing the options.
Is it really the casino, or just how the market works with multiple participants?
Thanks for the refresher course, but it doesn't answer the question I asked.
OTOH, they violated the uptrend line, so that line isn't valid, either.
We are back to the longer term lines.
You know what really bothers me about that data?
I didn't hear about it until there were 26 defaults. 10 defaults would have been newsworthy. So why am I just finding out?
25 defaults already priced into the market. OMG, now it's 26!
That is, classic TA.
https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/FXXOu5MA/
A picture of it.
BTW, I am more concerned about what will happen in the next 3 years, not the next 3 minutes.
Pardon my curiosity, but how did Max Pain at 205.5 ensure that the snap back to 205.05 would happen before the close?
I think we're talking about something different.
Snap back to 205.05 was claasic. Clear for takeoff. All systems go. (At least until 207.39 or so)
So D actually gets that as a benefit? Nice.
Trend was violated. Snap back is done. Made a lower low. The Declining tops rule the pattern until proven otherwise.
Another lower low might start changing sentiment, but sentiment looks good. Squeeze likely. How high? Not over 207.39. (Unless it's real)
Spy chart says 207.39 ish. Some sort of premium on the shares. Over that, maybe. I'm sticking near the computer to watch my oil short. Darn fatfinger forgot to close that one.
No. It won't. Next Down line comes in a bit lower. Here's my chart.
https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/wQ3qaaIZ/
IF S&P gets over 2064 on Monday, I might not go short, but I won't go long until the PE is under 18. That could be months, years, or even decades from now.
I just fatfingered my exit. So I'm done for a few days.
The boys will crash the market while I have zero buying power.
That's how it works, right?
LOL. Yes. Downtrend violated to the upside. I'm going to relax this weekend. Shorts are gone. VXX is gone. buying Power is gone.
And you'll be selling them in 10 minutes for a nickle scalp?
Bounced a bit, right after I mentioned it, so did SPY. Wonders never cease.
Looking very toppy, IMHO.
But seriously, earnings are done. What positive surprises could possibly hit the wire? Even if oil goes higher, it hurts the consumer, so that's out. Cut in rates? Nope, off the table.
IDK, I got nothing.
Crude seems to be setting the tone. Hang on to your hat.
EDited:
Running out of posts.
I remembered my own post from yesterday. Over 16, VXX goes to da moon. No snap back to the violated trendline.
I want to short bonds, effectively locking in a 30 year mortgage, but they are holding the trend line.
Strange. FOMC means diddly.
I like to mash the button and thump the ask.
Patience is giving me a headache. I thumped and mashed already.
I'll give it a thump at 16.08, just for you.
Oil testing now. I just took a short. VXX probably Tests and runs too.
Rabies, no. It will give you ADHD and ED, though.
Stop playing with it, You'll go blind.
I just don't think the bulls will give up that easy.
Test the green side of the channel, maybe.
https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/LaMBe3cP/
I'm looking for 15.70 VXX. Start nibbling under 16.
Ka-boom!
Crude starting to move. C'mon boys. Lemme see $203.70. Just for about 5 minutes.
That candle is so pretty. Oil wants to stay above $47. I see it running back to $48 for fun, then down.
Close it right here. Daily candle is beautiful. Every body go home. See ya tomorrow.
SPY 203.58
Oil just turned up. It won't last long. SPY is going to burn.
JCP breaking out today. I re-entered two days ago after a long vacation. Feels good to be up in a down market.
Wall Street crooks don't care what you need.
Vote Bernie
Forget 202. 201 looks possible.
https://dwq4do82y8xi7.cloudfront.net/x/WwC2nvwY/
I'm starting to trust my technicals. Only head fakes to the upside, regardless of FOMC. Violates the line, I cover.
Snap back target on VXX was $15.11. Ethereal, not equity.
SPXU is 3x short the SPY.
Those were my nibbles. Ready to start adding as it progresses.
In the 90's they didn't have LED's to save you 80% on your energy consumption.
Welcome to the 21st century.
EIA found 2.5 million of the lost 7 million.
Oil shorts are working.
Update:
300 @15.183
250 @15.15
500 SPXU @ 28.71
I got my finger on the trigger. I am going to nibble very soon.
Not this short. We're just in the process of renegotiating the terms. They are giving me some room.