I am updating my staus.
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SGZH - well even 200 Million shares would be 13 times higher than current share count - so that would wipe us out by itself. Billion at 66 times higher would just be a little extra insult.
I guess you trust them or you dont.
My question is why have they got 30 million in the balance sheet and not got into the mine consolidation act? The very least they could do is loan some money to PUDA
rich
PUDA - giving mining firms cash at the moment can only be a good thing. Even if some hold up ensued (you would think the deal was done if they were getting the cash!) - but worse case they would use the money for the Jiane aquisition which would be accreative to earnings as well.
rich
Just to say that I reviewed it as much as I can say and yes, LLFH were giving net income away to minority owners - otherwise the margins would be higher.
rich
CBPO, Barry Kit - same thing happened - suppressed price at $5 until they were out then... bang!
rich
LLFH vs NEP
IF NEP gets a new lease then I would say this would be the one. But it's the IF... they've been working on it.. when they got their last lease there hadn't been $150 barrells of oil. Without that you have to look at some of the money they are making next year as discontinued. I think were looking, without a new lease, at a $10 stock or 100% ish upside.
LLFH has a conservative upside of 100% ish but the other numbers they showed at the presentation implied that the coking facility profits weren't going into the estimate and it could do a lot more, something more like the $1.30. In addtion they have the cash on the balance sheet - and to me it's more about what asset the get next rather than if they get the asset.
I actually own more NEP at this time because I have all 3 coal stocks. I trust both of the management teams to pull off good deals in the coming years.
rich
GCHT employ top 4 accounts firm... nice.
http://www.gcchinaturbine.com/news/news.aspx?nrnum=293
rich
Well, I'm glad I kept some shares! Looks like the chinese AG stocks are happy to trade higher during the winter, so that theory could be toast.
rich
Eh? BSPM has not competition or at least no one is going to come up with OTC Hep B drug due to a grandfather rule (Drexion wrote about them)... hmm probably the wrong board to discuss BSPM.
rich
CPQQ, Trader I'm on richard.wigley at gmail.com - pretty please
rich
I'm sure Snow would also point out that the receivables are 3M versus revenues of around 8M - which is pretty good. And that in the last quarter, at least, CPQQ was financing growth through free cash flow - obviously the longer it can delay any financing the nearer we will be to the opening of the new factory and the better the terms will be.
rich
CHME
The amount of dilution going on in confusing. They also said that the reduced working capital could affect the upcoming quarter.
Against that they have the catalyst of rADTZ drug and the sinofrom aquisition (which is the reasons for the reduced working capital).
It looks a winner so I have a few shares but in the back of my mind I keep thinking of all the chinese companies that muck up financing. There's a lot of financing to be done here.
If they got some financing out of the way and I can see they did it properly I would be more confident. Also... small volume and wide spread... would be nice to have more liquidity.
Anyways, that's my take. Don't know what others think?
rich
SBAY I hope Mr Crane has a big head and stands in front of the projector to block out 2009's EPS on that slide.
Well, I say projector, I hope he stand in front of a class IV laser device, but you can't ask for everything can you? My hope is is actually does give something resembling shareholder value.
rich
China manufacturing expanding in Nov
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Survey-shows-China-apf-3918733896.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
rich
OT,Swampdonkey... Hello Swampdonkey , I'm still with my crappy brokers that have no functaionlity whatsover - other than buy US stocks. CCZ quotes gives COMCAST HOLDINGS CORP so no dice.
If CCZ do what management say they do your in for a good 2010.
(I like the look of IB brokers but they seem to charge per share and on this board we get lots of stocks for small $'s. Might have to have, gulp, two accounts)
If you want to OT me on any none chinese stocks I'll always listen on
richard.wigley at gmail.com
rich
New SBAY Presentation...
Includes special section on how they helped us lucky shareholders
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1139570/000114420409062417/v167919_ex99-1.htm
rich
NEP had a good day yesterday. Nice volume up 3% even as S&P zigged and zagged. Will it behave itself now and hold it's gains?
rich
NickC Yup, the best information about CPQQ comes from filings.
Once you step away from that then the company is about growth as you can see as our P/E is, gulp, above 10 (nose bleed stuff for Chinese stock). The best bit of information is about this is the PRs. They have been bullish about their results saying second half of 2009 would be better than first (so far this seems to be true).
In the PR's they have also said that next year the revenues would be at least 200% higher than this year - basically they are building a new factory. Currently this is from free cash flow but they could be dilution. I think someone talked to the company about this and got a figure of $5M? (anyone?)
Finally, it's also about demand - and basically the Chinese want to upgrade their electricity grid and can supply keep up?
good luck
rich
I am in no way knowledgable on the different types of filings. So, others should feel free to step in.
My understanding is that S-3 is a worse case scenario.. we can sell upto, in this case, $100 Million.
I don't know what the rules of disclosure are but at some point in the future the details are announced to us, I think?
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Back to what I know more about... $100 million sounds a lot, think that's a 50% dilution at around these prices. That's ok providing they are getting a few years growth out of it - there's no point growing earnings by 50% if your going to dilute by 50% is there? So, the market wants to see that they are using the money to benefit the growth in earnings of the company for the next few years. I suspect the size of the announcement will keep the market nervous for now, and it would like more details.
rich
-- negotiations for the consolidation funding
CSP, do you mean, you think the consolidation is going through, lets say, 99% likely. They have a price and it's just how they get pay for it that needs to be sorted?
cheer
rich
Can't see it yet...
Does the presentation give any growth guidance? With the 3G buildout you'd think it was in the bag... but my guess is that's what the market wants.
rich
Hi Joe - shoot me please...
richard.wigley at gmail.com
cheers
rich
Cool... I will need to review that. eom
rich
Dreixon perhaps I've misuderstood. LLFH has got gross margins of 48% and net of 24% ish. Using that net margin the FY EPS for Jianhe mine is $0.78 so PUDA shouldn't dilute at this point - though obviously a good usage of cash.
Assuming stock price appreicates then usage stock would make more sense. I'm thinking $8 or more before it makes senses.
rich
SGZH - what's the situation?
They've redone their reports. Are we essentially waiting for uplisting news?
rich
1) OK, when it takes 4 years to mature what is the limiting factor? Is it calorific? Is it taking 4 years because they are not reaching their potential because of nutrition.
As is typical for investing... I'm reading through pages about cows and learning on the hoof (oh God I'm hilarious). I haven't found anything that is explicit aobut the years it takes for beef to mature. I'm guessing it's dependent on factors including the breed. However, it looks like 2 years to 4 years is the norm.
So is it calorific? If not then surely there's something else in the feed? I don't care if you call in "non man made" but there's something.
-------------------
2) My understanding of SIAF so far is for 2010 it's mainly a dairy business but more dragon flowers should come on line. I appreciate they have other lines they are investing in but these are the main ones to value company? Agree?
rich
China tell EU no exchange rate change.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-shrugs-off-EU-appeal-apf-2506113216.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
ChinaWatch PUDA Video (looks new)
CFO interviewed by someone who is a study of insincerity. However, pictures of mining look cool.
CFO views were "hopes" rather than we are going to do this. I am assuming this is because of ongoing negotiations.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10632072/puda-coal-china-watch.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1
rich
ChinaWatch Video
CFO interviewed by someone who is a study of insincerity. However, pictures of mining look cool.
CFO views were "hopes" rather than we are going to do this. I am assuming this is because of ongoing negotiations.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/10632072/puda-coal-china-watch.html?cm_ven=YAHOOV&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA&s=1
rich
"4 times faster than the typical beef supply available today in China."
Can you pass that by me again. They are growing 4 times faster?
rich
Ok, I understand - I'll guess that the full Jianhe acquisition will take $81 Million ish.
I get the impression that the 8 mine consolidation, after the last PR, is still being negotiated - so it sounds like Jianhe is a good hedge against protracted negotiation - assuming approval.
I can't think why the government wouldn't approve Jianhe? I think I will buy more PUDA if they get government approval; which is probably what everyone else will do or $4 and change... either really.
rich
Drexion in your opinion after TMI which warrants look a best buy now? (or rather I ain't buying any more TMI! )
rich
Do you mean Jianhe remaining shares for $7M? Really? I need to read through the filings.
I should play around with various mine acquisition prices as well. If any of the aquisitions come off it looks good for share holders.
rich
Hello Drexion, ok, 48% Net margins, the 18% ownership gives $850K or 6 cents a share extra or $0.25 a quarter or $10 stock at P/E 10, assuming Q4 no better.
The full mine, alone, at cost of $81 million would generate earnings of $1.61. At $5.30 ish PUDA market cap is $81 Million as well, and in it's best year 2008 that produced $1.12. So, even if they diluted to buy the mine at this price, stupid, it would be accretive acquisition.
Assuming these parameters it looks good.
rich
Jianhe Model
I wanted to get a better grip of the aquisition to see what revenues we could expect in the immedate quarter. PUDA sees this also as a stategic aquistion as it might allow them to consolidate the sector but lets ignore that for this model
Mine 18% $14.6 million
100% ownership $81.1 Million
So, my first gestimate of fair value P/E 10 it would bring in $1.4 million net for the current steak. Or 350K a quarter.
Parameters
Current Tonnes 450,000 per year
Tonnes on redevelopment 600,000 per year
There are two seams one with thermal coal and one with coking coal. I have decided that means we get 50 % of each.
Coking coal $105 per tonne - I removed 8% Margin to give approx cost
Thermal I'm working with $70 (I think CSP said that GS was raising this for 2010?)
So Total Revenue
Coking 225,000 * 105
Thermal 225,000 * 70
Total 39 Million
18% 7.07Million
Per Quarter = 1.8 Million
Net Margin 26% (YZC's net margin)
460K per quarter.
So were looking for 3 cents bump for a full quarter? So, 16% rise over 19 cents eps. Extra cent when they go from 450K to 600K tonnes
Anyone care to comment?
rich
http://www.pudacoalinc.com/images/5-15-09_Puda_Coal_Press_Release_coal_mine_acquisition_final.pdf
OK so Studer signed off 2008 but his rep isn't pristine to say the least. I can't see a headline suggesting they've changed auditor. So, assuming he is the auditor for 2009?
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1017699/000114420409020579/v146083_10k.htm
rich
Ok, I'll read through later, the thread is getting long. If your right I owe you an oppology.
rich
I've got a few shares and I'll have more coming into next year .... I'm guessing (I have no idea if this is true) that the share might show appreciation during the better quarters so March/June?
Anyone think this is a mad idea?
rich
BlackThought, I would have prefered it if I was wrong eom
Economist: Car Sales vs Petrol Sales
Gordon Chang's Forbes article in which he claims cars must be stockpiled rther than driven given no inc in petrol sales - is looked at.
Discuss
- Gas guzzlers replaced by more efficient
- Driven less
- Chinese data incomplete and has holes
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14969092
rich
CDBT.PK was an OTC stock until very recently. And yes CKGT is getting a, possibly unfair, kicking as a result of CDBT's failings. This *may* affect the pps in the short term; I emphasise may since I have no clue but so far it's behaving normally.
The lesson of CDBT is that a fraud initially perpetuated on the Chinese can then be turned onto the US investors. The importance of this is that a) Chinese fraudsters will see this as an opportunity. b) People wanting to create panic on a stock will also emphasise this problem. Either way, investors need to get up to adapt to this.
If it gets through unscathed, which it has so far, then for me at least - it becomes a better investment.
For me, I am interested in new points and respond to them, I may summarise the situation but I certainly won't be on auto repeat.
Yes, the fact that it worked with an investment firm is an excellent point.
rich