Puda Coal Inc (PUDA)

[GorillaGorilla]

Jianhe Model

I wanted to get a better grip of the aquisition to see what revenues we could expect in the immedate quarter. PUDA sees this also as a stategic aquistion as it might allow them to consolidate the sector but lets ignore that for this model

Mine 18% $14.6 million
100% ownership $81.1 Million

So, my first gestimate of fair value P/E 10 it would bring in $1.4 million net for the current steak. Or 350K a quarter.

Parameters
Current Tonnes 450,000 per year
Tonnes on redevelopment 600,000 per year

There are two seams one with thermal coal and one with coking coal. I have decided that means we get 50 % of each.

Coking coal $105 per tonne - I removed 8% Margin to give approx cost
Thermal I'm working with $70 (I think CSP said that GS was raising this for 2010?)

So Total Revenue
Coking 225,000 * 105
Thermal 225,000 * 70
Total 39 Million
18% 7.07Million

Per Quarter = 1.8 Million

Net Margin 26% (YZC's net margin)

460K per quarter.

So were looking for 3 cents bump for a full quarter? So, 16% rise over 19 cents eps. Extra cent when they go from 450K to 600K tonnes


Anyone care to comment?


rich


http://www.pudacoalinc.com/images/5-15-09_Puda_Coal_Press_Release_coal_mine_acquisition_final.pdf