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Yep, assuming of course that the right thingy turns out to be a shoulder at HOD 891ish. Well, that's more likely than not, to my way of thinking. But still ---- strange things happen.
Yep, I do use them, but as with all indicators, they go down better slightly salted. In general VIX and VXN are more precise at calling deep market bottoms (when VIX and VXN spike high) which are rare. Some look at the absolute values, but that seems not be as consistently revealing as the relative trend, which raises the question, as always, when is the VIX at a peak (which is only proven after the fact)? Confirmation of the above principle can easily be confirmed by looking at, say, times like the last October low, and similar events.
Using the VIX and VXN as leading indicators for market downturns seems a good bit less precise, but seems to gain more validity as they are headed down, and especially as they are in divergence with stock prices. Intermediate seems to be more effective than shorter term. An overlay of the VIX/VXN on the indices (NAZ, DOW, SPX, etc, makes only modest difference) is a good way to inspect the historical record of divergences, for any time period/frequency desired. I strongly recommend that anyone wishing to investigate the relationship take the time to make such a study to determine what confidence to place in the divergent relationship.
My read today is that both the VIX and VXN (I don't make much of a distinction in interpretation since they somewhat track)are not likely supportive of a move of the equities substantially higher, since they are sharply dipping. Historically, as I read and backtest the past, rallies in equities spring much better from relatively high and peaking patterns for the VIX and VXN, even in the short term.
Intraday charts for a wide array of indices including VIX, VXN, Put/Call as well as all the standards is available on astrikos.com. Info is refreshed at 30 second intervals. I keep that window up on a minder monitor all during trading hours, and toggle between indices in which I am interested. It is fast and handy as a pocket on a shirt.
This rally won't amount to anything. Take a peek at the VIX and VXN, drifting lower. Not the situation from which significant rallies spring.
Southbound, also
It is a good idea to draw both on the chart and consider that the expected result of a declining wedge may take place within the declining channel. I would be very hesitant to say "right" or "wrong". The market may have failed to read the answer page in the back of the book.
Obviously it is in reality helium for which Bezos has discovered a method for attaching to the stock.
Yep, and it happened. LOD 1308. Hard to predict a strong rally from there. Damage to the left wing tiles.
Exactly
I favor the notion of a G & C tomorrow.
That plus the VIX, VXN, P/C and ADX, just to mention a few
Shorting the semi-equips. KLIC, AMAT, CYMI
Larry,
Your two shorts have much more promise than Wahz's long at 25.
I'm E-waves and patterns and oscillators. Waves suggest south. Last Thurs-today's 10-min COMP price is wedgie bearish; top line touched at 1353, bottom breached around 1340, back-test at 12:45 failed.
On the daily, all signals are southbound: ADX, MACD, STOs and volume. Not to forget the VIX and VXN, low and dipping, not the situation that rallys begin from.
Indecision, yep, we've got plenty of that, no question. Hope I don't get hung by it. Or to think again, hope I don't get hung up on it.
Also, if one doubles his wad (starting with a $K) every month, by Christmas he will have a $mil (less $394K for th' guvn'r).
{g}
Not likely.
wahz
Would appreciate your commentary/critique on trades 13,14,15 from the standpoint of the predictive value of your indicators at the time those trades were decided on and executed.
I have sort of formed the impression (correct me if wrong)from posts in the interim that holding nos 14 and 15 shorts through the rally was influenced perhaps by subjective reluctance to print losses (read ring the cash register)as much or more than by what the indicators prescribed.
Likewise, comment as to why, today, the sell of the long at 24.10 (trade 13) is percieved to have been a "spectacular mistake".
TIA
So, if I might be permitted to suggest how you run your business {g}, I would prefer to see initiation and disposition of all trades.
Number 15 on the list?
Gray boxes, likewise. Having StockCharts open aint cuttin' any ice.
Put/Call for equities this hour = 1.20
hk2
You are forecasting a measured break down from a undoubted H + S formation, but with no consideration that the deeply oversold STO suggestd a possible failure? (They don't ALL come true, surely you will agree). My question was just wondering about the absense of such consideration, and in this particular situation (after all we do really face trading conditions tomorrow, as with all morrows) what your judgement
would be with that in mind.
Not trying to pick a fight.
Respectfully,
hk2
What do you do about taking STO into account?
RMBS
Clinging to the sky. Why? Guess: too many shorts a'reddy?
AMZN
How come round trip today? In shortable territory again for Tuesday?
There's a step left out here. Powell and Bush are going to get a resolution out of the U.N. for political reasons, worldwide as well as here. Take nearly a week after the 14th.
French, Germans and Ruskies don't want appear to have caved too easily.
Also, we've just now (almost?) got straight with Turkey to let us put walking soldiers on their turf, and we've gotta airlift the 4th Div out of Fort Hood over there to hit the north of Iraq. Part of the PLAN.
Be sure to us an extra dull pencil for a fat line to squeeze EOD [4] under the downtrend line. A red crayola out of daughter's box would be the thing.
Roy (the fudger)
I'd say we're probably looking at a classic 3-day morning star pattern with an extra hesitation day (waiting for the Bush speech) thrown in yesterday. I should send Nison a mesage to amend the book.
Roy
Mlsoft, Gould
Also, from Robert Wright in The New Republic before beginning an attack on one of Gould's books:
"The acclaim for Stephen Jay Gould is just shy of being universal ... He is, after all, American's evolutionist laureate."
Mlsoft, thanks for your reply,
Stephen Jay Gould, look at Google, perhaps starting with "---Gould dies at 60" for a quick bio and leads to his extensive writings. You have seen him on TeeVee and will recognize his photo. Died at 60 last May.
300 consecutive monthly essays published in Natural History, as well as several books, most of which are in my library. Unquestionably learned, although not without challenges by some peers, and I buy much of his theory and conclusions regarding evolution. A good read, except that he rarely uses 10 words when 100 will do as well. {g}
With Niles Eldridge, co-originator of the notion of "punctuated equilibrium" (ca 1970s) regarding evolution.
Alexander Agassive Professor of Zoology at Harvard. A "star in Harvard's firmament".
A basic conclusion of his is that the arrival of human intelligence was a "glorious accident" and that if the tape of evolution were rewound and run again, the chance of intelligence arising again is vanishingly small. Why? The notion of contingincy, as in varying original canditions, i.e. when the butterfly flaps its wings originally, the eventually resulting hurricane bears the unique imprint. He cites the astroid (comet?) hit in Mexico 65mil years ago, which is now widely thought to have the smoked the dinosaurs, as being a chance factor in allowing the emergence of mamallanian precursors of humans. Another cited "fact" (apparently from paleontologal evidence) is that the only remaining species of homo (us) is but one of many branches of a bush, all others having gone extinct. Why? Perhaps (only one factor of many) the "accident" of intelligence and speech provided survival advantages for a very small population, perhaps only a few thousands (from mitrochondrial dna extrapolations).
My guess is that you will be interested to inquire as time permits.
Perhaps "-- universally accepted evolutionary map-- " as you are aware of it may need to be reconsidered. (And which, not incidentally, will allow 2nd thermo to live {g}). There are other substantial names besides Gould, although I have not read all of them nearly as exhaustively. They appear in the bibliograpg of his books (see the first Google entry).
Saving the best for last, he has extensive writings about baseball (as has George Will, of "Men at Work"). If on a cold winter evening the mind tires (or grows numb) from his science, a switch to the national pastime might relax.
I go to prepare for the battle tomorrow.
Roy
P.S. Thanks for your posts, especially, as Zeev says, on the dark side.
Mlsoft:
"---life evolves --- into ever more complex and higher life forms --".
Not Gould's view. Definitely not.
Evolution by chance, yes, but without direction.
Roy
Augie:
I needs m' charts fix. Tomorrow morning is coming soon.
TIA, Roy
Joe: AMZN
Appreciate your gathering it all together so that I don't have to.
Or maybe even "esta idea buen".
First rate. Serious contemplation to be employed.
As a tulip student, I have wondered (as in awe) what psychological forces gripped our "intelligent" population in the fourth quarter of '98 to bounce up from a steep decline in the prior third quarter (bottom NAZ 1357)and ignore your chart's 15%-17% variance peak for another six quarters until a tardy peek was taken at the +21% figure in early '00.
All the way to 5132, for more than a trippler, amost quadruple.
So the question now is, in a different setting, after a three year decline and facing much different eco and geo factors, will "the market" (read greater fools) again ignore the recent +10% you show which has been a reliable indicator of a fall on all other occasions. The Zeevs and the Mlsofts (notably, as well as others) see and speak openly of a major decline. Others want to "see" a major (last 5 months)inverted H + S reversal formation, recently at the assumed critical neckline.
Blue, Augie, I say blue. The last two days have opened Pandora, if the contents weren't already known.
Realistically, I have to conclude lower.
How short? I day trade and short term is my middle name, so I gotta look at what might be predictive for that time horizon. My experience says I d--- well better pay attention to engulfers, dark or bright, depending. Not always right, nothing in this game is.
What about the hammer at 11:00 ?
What about the big ol' dark engulfing stick?
Mlsoft,
Way to go ! Great call and the balls to put the big money on the line.
Which reminds me to ask, by the way, would you like a little assistance in hauling said money to the bank? {g}
Roy
Same here