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Re: bbgold post# 12759

Tuesday, 04/01/2003 1:51:55 PM

Tuesday, April 01, 2003 1:51:55 PM

Post# of 18894
Yep, I do use them, but as with all indicators, they go down better slightly salted. In general VIX and VXN are more precise at calling deep market bottoms (when VIX and VXN spike high) which are rare. Some look at the absolute values, but that seems not be as consistently revealing as the relative trend, which raises the question, as always, when is the VIX at a peak (which is only proven after the fact)? Confirmation of the above principle can easily be confirmed by looking at, say, times like the last October low, and similar events.

Using the VIX and VXN as leading indicators for market downturns seems a good bit less precise, but seems to gain more validity as they are headed down, and especially as they are in divergence with stock prices. Intermediate seems to be more effective than shorter term. An overlay of the VIX/VXN on the indices (NAZ, DOW, SPX, etc, makes only modest difference) is a good way to inspect the historical record of divergences, for any time period/frequency desired. I strongly recommend that anyone wishing to investigate the relationship take the time to make such a study to determine what confidence to place in the divergent relationship.

My read today is that both the VIX and VXN (I don't make much of a distinction in interpretation since they somewhat track)are not likely supportive of a move of the equities substantially higher, since they are sharply dipping. Historically, as I read and backtest the past, rallies in equities spring much better from relatively high and peaking patterns for the VIX and VXN, even in the short term.

Intraday charts for a wide array of indices including VIX, VXN, Put/Call as well as all the standards is available on astrikos.com. Info is refreshed at 30 second intervals. I keep that window up on a minder monitor all during trading hours, and toggle between indices in which I am interested. It is fast and handy as a pocket on a shirt.

Roy

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