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IBM 57.52? s/b 87.52?
Sure, but recent is usually more applicable than further back, and so far there is lack of abundant evidence that the buy-the-dip mentality is exhausted. This from a veteran shorter who has been trying to make money mostly on the dark side since October.
Below 20 on the full stochs have marked significant lows.
NDX breaking down from intraday H + S on the 5-min. Is this the day we finish lower? It has to happen sometime. Me short semis and equips at today's Comp 2120. If I were thinking long, I'd not think a Friday along in here would be extra attractive.
How come?
Yes, of course. However, the more and longer overbought, the poorer the risk-reward becomes. Presently, with the DOW having progresed upward virtually without dip since November 21, that index looks rather unattractive. The SPX is similar, but with a slight pause during that period.
On the other hand, the COMP and (especially) the SOX/SMH indices do not show such seemingly dangerous lengthy runs, although the current SMH run of 12 sessions since December 16 is about on a par with previous advances, and expecially considering that we are looking at a lower low and lower high already printed in December.
Looks like dark cloud reversal sticks all indices.
Covered at 36.59 for +.46.
So I see, mostly associated with the climb out of the opening swoon, and now (last hour or so) slacking off as the price vascilates in the 37.50-.65 region. What is your interpretation, pray tell? Pause before higher, or rounding top before another swoon?
In edit, BTW, very nice trades on both sides this week. Good going. I've been elsewhere and haven't watched your work, but should have <gg>.
Nice one.
Short at 37.05
15-minute stochastics fast line hit 90 and upper b-band is pierced pretty good.
In edit: Big volume on white 5-minute sticks above 36.75, now tailed off considerably at 37. Sox running into expected resistance in the vicinity of highs of late last week, and getting right up near the upper b-band. COMP is in a region of expected resistance ca 1860.
Sold at 36.54 for +.33 as 5-minute stochastics presses 90.
Scalp and go. Other matters pressing.
Long at 36.21
In edit. 5-minute and 15-minute stochastics oversold at 10.
Hourly stochastics still descending at 40ish, so maybe not much of a bounce. We'll see.
SOX making white candles on the 5-minute
Covered my 37.33 short at 36.65 for +.68.
Looking for a bounce to reenter short higher. Stochastics oversold on the 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly. I judge that yesterday afternoon's swoon and continuation sharply down this morning are not enough to scare away the dip buyers just yet.
VIX 19.22. Double bottom? Reversal candles all indices. Long here is definitely saying "it's different this time".
All in gear for a top (but of unknown consequence): Stochastics, MACD, RSI and reversal sticks in the making on NDX, COMP, SPX, etc.
Hey Lisa, what does your model say now?
Been out of pocket, I'm still holding my 37.33 short from last Friday.
KLIC, stay solvent? Via a miracle, maybe. Until/unless that, it's greater fools at work. But shorting can be dangerous to one's wallet on this one. My guess is that those greater fools will run out of cash about the time (soon) we get a general downdraft in the techs, and KLIC will head south at an accelerated rate. Look at the likes of KLAC, NVLS and AMAT today; semis need more capacity? I don't think so.
9:30 a.m. equities only P/C .35
Short at 37.33
In edit: Lisa, hey, what's your model look like now? My stuff says we're toppy again.
Stopped out at 37.19 for -.05 -- lunch.
Short at 37.14. 1-min stochastics at 100.
Covered at 37.06 for +.14. 1-minute stochastics touched 0.
Thanks.
I'm not too happy to be doing multi-intraday trades, but it seems the most reliable way of doing business right now, since the long expected (by me and some others)major downdraft has not shown its hand for sure. Nevertheless I continue to favor the short side and am scalping whenever an opportunity seems to appear. I'm mostly following the 1 minute x 4 hour real time chart and am seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows with bear flags in between since the failure at 10:30 to break above the 10:00 HOD (or a couple of pennies). So far, the stochastics above 80 on the 1-minute have correctly signaled sell territory and below 10 for buys to cover. Whether that pattern continues for the rest of the day (or another hour for that matter) is uncertain, so I am following the mantra to "take profits relentlessly and get out of bad trades fast". About 10 minutes ago, SMH failed to break below 37.10 which had been the previous low around 12:05-10. Needs to break it this trip down, but maybe not.
Short at 37.20
Covered at 37.12 for +.27
Short at 37.39. Near double top intamorning?
In edit: Also short EXTR at 7.20 and KLIC at 11.93
Covered at 37.32 for -.03. Wrong way.
Short at 37.29
Covered at 37.11 for +.22
Short at 37.33
Covered at 37.09 for +.02
EOD
That looks about right to me. I was too quick at .11, and went to lunch. I tend to do that when I get a little cushion ahead, 1.08 altogether today before this position. But the lower b-band on the 5-minute is about 36.90 (but rising) and the 15-minute is way down at 36.65 or so, so maybe an afternoon fizzle will produce another little dab.
The way things look now, is your model bullish for tomorrow and into next week?
Short at 37.11.
Second red candle appeared on the 5-minute, breaking the up-channel
Stochastics on both the 5-minute and 15-minute peaked above 90, and have hooked toward south and crossed or touching to cross.
In edit: Possible failure to challenge the morning's gap up high.
Lisa, has the last hour's ramp done anything to your bearish call? SMH intraday is still knifing upward here at 37.12 and I do not contemplate entering short again until/unless toppy sign(s) appear. Most of the indices (SOX, COMP, INDU, and SPX are approaching their upper b-bands on the 15-minute and well above on the 5-minute. That's one thing, but the momentum is still enough to cause fright to my shorting nature. Last Friday's serious gap up opening and intraday high at 37.86 and subsequent 3-day retreat ought to provide a major resistance area to my way of thinking. And also to my way of thinking, another gift of a shorting opportunity.
I'm looking at a red candle on the 5-minute, but not long enough to break the up-channel that began an hour ago.
What say you?
Thanks Lisa. I recognize the countertrend and often trade an opening based on the expectation that the early bidders will be proven wrong.
And yes, risky is what it is.
Covered here at 36.68 for +.11
Short at 36.79. Expecting another try at today's low.
Covered at 36.80 for -.02. Standing aside.
In edit, early morning downtrend has been broken. Likewise for the SOX, COMP and NDX. The question is, are we looking at bear flags here? That's my impression.