You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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Dbernet, I do not mind anyone who "trades" it is just not for me. Even Troy recently "traded" away 20% of his holdings. He probably thinks the MarkG deal will not materialize. I have my doubts as well, and believe it will be several fortnights away if at all. As the time passes more and more traders will jump ship as the wait continues and price softens. I do not think the price will soften that much and believe all what YankeMike wrote over on the other board. The drilling WILL happen this year and that is a FOR SURE. So what is 7-8 months more. The only risk is how much oil. I love Closeology and a big oil discovery is only 20 miles away. Is that close enough? I am ALL IN this poker game and like my hand.
DeGen
Ps: Troy how do expect to catch me in total shares if you sell some shares? Do you really think you will get that many more when or if you replace them? Maybe you got a quick sure thing and will trade that stock only to return to ERHC with more money to buy shares. However, I bet those ERHC shares will be more expensive when you decide to rebuy them. I do find it strange that you are second guessing youself. Look back at the big picture and reread YankeMike's post ten times.
Farrell, let's see 15% premium on a $2 offer gives us $2.30 a far cry from $10. However, the ERHC's current share price is 45 CENTS, a 15% premium on that gives us not even 52 CENTS. I do not think ANYONE here would accept a offer for 52 cents. BTW, what was your point?
Tonight's rant (since BB has not posted lately):
MarkG's news did not make the first deadline, so now we have to wait for the second dateline at the end of next week. IMO, that deadline may also have to be extended, since deals like this take more time than one first believes they can be completed in. ESPECIALLY when one of the parties involved is on African time and that alone adds a fortnight or two to the equation. So we must have patience, something most of us have learned that patience is a requirement if you are invested in the stock.
I am a relatively short timer here, only about 3 years under my belt. My first buys were from Feb 21 thru early May 2006. Those buys were at a very high price and as the stock plummeted after the investigations were announced, I was hit very hard and took a lot of grief by being invested in a stock that was worth a great deal less than what I paid. I could have sold and taken the loss or become a "bag holder" and hope the share price would recover in the future since there company had so much potential. I always thought when the oil was discovered those initial buys would still be profitable. I could have sold taken the lost and walked away a loser. But I liked my investment and always felt it was just a matter of time. Over the years, disappointments continued with drilling rigs being very difficult to obtain and the the rig that was signed delayed and delayed some more. What bad luck to invest in a company with great potential only to have it investigated and then have its potential delayed and delayed some more. However, I am what some of the traders here call a bag holder. I took the opportunity over the past years to invest more money into ERHC at what I thought were low points to obtain a high number of shares. I finally became green recently and do not regret any of my bag holding. I only wish I could be as smart as the renowned traders here who always buy low and sell high. They don't care about paying short time capital gains like most of us do. They have some sort of gift knowing in advance about any good or bad news to trade on. Or read charts and make some sense of the past. I do not believe in chart reading at a prediction of the future. As I said I wish I had their gift. The closest thing I came to buying low was late last December when those "institutions" were selling I was buying 100,000 shares at a little over ten cents. I also loaded up when MarkG made his first prediction of the rig of opportunity would be coming soon. I bought 400,000 shares in the high twenties. So my bag it quite full. But its a mixed bag, some very high priced shares, some very low priced shares, but all and all a very nice bag full.
I would guess some of the traders here would make fun of my ERHC investment as they play ERHC like a fiddle. But I do not know how to play the fiddle and have never sold a share. In fact for me to liquidate my entire holding there would be a cause great affect on the share price. When you day trade in ERHC you can only deal in small amounts otherwise you will destroy the market. So as far as I am concerned for me the choice of being a trader or bag holder was easy. Now lets see who makes more money over the next year or two.
Farrell, you comment that a buy out for $2 for 20% of ERHC stock would equal the Bovell/SEO price of $10 makes NO sense at all. That is not the way if works, if one pays $2 per share for whatever percentage of the company you name, that makes the price of the company worth about $2 per share for EVERY share. You do not multiply the percentage bought by the price paid. That is just bad math.
Somewhat OT, but a followup to other posts involving iPhone users:
Razoroil, thx for the iPhone tip, I just installed the application you recommended for Level II quotes and love it. I get ERHC, and other BBs quotes as well. That may be because I am an APEX TDAmeritrade customer. The ERHC stock quote updates are instantaneous and a detailed level II is also current. Thx again.
Ps: Those that do not own an Iphone should look into it. The phone is amazing and the list of applications that can be added for free or a small charge are unbelievable. Watch the iphone commercials! I just added an extra battery pack called a "morphie" (see morphie.com) that doubles the battery life, another great feature. I am not the most savvy computer person but really enjoy my iPhone.
Dbernet, you said, "There are an endless supply of guys like Dadd, who think they can do it right." As far as that "think they can do it right" part, LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
Oily, hate to see you leave, you have always been a puzzle that has perplexed these boards. But one thing before you leave, you indicate your work here is done, that wording also puzzles me. What do you mean by "work" were you hired to post? Are you paid? Why would you call it work anyhow?
I also noticed you said that you would leave "here", does that mean only the JDZ board or are you leaving the ERHC board as well? Thank you in advance for your response.
DeGen
It is nice to see the bid / ask only one cent apart (43/44). Although currently the volume is very low, maybe this tighter spread will encourage more trading. IMO, the low volume indicates nothing is about to "leak" out very soon. Nor will Oily's prediction of ERHC news (today or tomorrow) be correct. But that is not really going out on a limb.
On page 12 of the most recent ADDAX presentation (dated April, not sure of exact date) it indicated drilling in 4 Quarter 2009 JDZ Deepwater:
• JDZ4 (Kina)
• JDZ2 (Bomu)
The entire Addax presentation can be found
http://www.addaxpetroleum.com/_media/200904-InvestorPresentation.pdf
Rambus posted this on the ERHC board, but there has been no discussion about the dates shown. I am still hoping that the other reports indicating earlier drilling (late 2nd Q or 3 Q) may still come about, but since Addax is doing the drilling and the prime source of this kind of information, I would have to believe Addax information is the most accurate.
Maybe MarkG's leak has more to do with the drilling dates than buy in/out.
Oily up to his old tricks as well.
Dat51 when the SP gets closer I will set up a list for those who want to go via email. My email is rcparker99@aol.com but do not send anything yet as it is a bit premature. Could you believe my post was removed from the ERHC board!
The SP traded mostly between 45-46 most of the day with some trades as high as 48 on light volume. I was VERY happy the mid 40s held up today especially since the volume was so light and the previous run up on Wed/Thur.
I am hoping for an assault on 50 and possibly 60 next week in anticipation of the possibly news being released by Friday. After the news anything is possible depending on the dollar amount offered in the deal. Hopefully way over a buck and possibly 2-3 bucks. Has our ship come or is it just approaching the harbor waiting to dock? I hope it's one of the gigantic cruise ships with all the bells and horns a ringing and a blowing.
It is nice to see the share price did not retrench to the low 40s this AM like I thought it might. If we get some good volume the rest of the day we should close in the high 40s. There might be the BIG announcement after the close and I would not want to be "out" of this stock over this weekend. Although I personally do not think it will announced until the next week or two because the volume indicates nothing is immediately brewing. If we volume gets into the several millions watch out!
Been traveling most of the day and missed the all the action AND what nice action it was. There is some debate about what is causing this recent rise and MarkG is getting some blame (but much credit). I must admit when MarkG announced the coming of the Deepwater Pathfinder, I loaded up (about 400K shares). I felt like this was the closest thing to inside information I would ever get and had confidence enough to make my final purchases and go ALL IN. Some who hunt or gather may call me a bag holder, but I turned green today. I do not have any free shares nor do I have $30K sitting on the sidelines as profit, since I am all in. I am very happy to own all the shares I do and feel for those that had money (30K) and let it sit on the sidelines. Like many here, never sold a share, just kept adding when I felt is was appropriate to average down. I will be holding my bag until a buck and most likely MUCH longer. But at a buck that would be a nearly a cool million in profit. Now that's a nice bag to be holding. And the SP will be over a buck before the end of the year.
This time with MarkGs prediction of the Addax deal being announced may have also caused others to jump in. But I feel there is much more than that, the whole situation is reaching critical mass. The rigs are coming and the results will soon be known. I have been saying for months, time is getting short to get in the stock before it's too late. Maybe too late to get a 10 bagger but not to late to still make lots of money.
I hope we do not see a pull back tomorrow, which has ofter occurred after a big jump like today. But, in fact I do expect a fall back to the low forties. However, next week the SP should resume its rise to approach 50 by weeks end. Those that day trade may may a few bucks jumping in and out, but that's not for me. Remember I am a bag holder.
Troy, if something is really brewing the volume sure is no idication like you said. Unless those that know the details do not think it will be that beneficial to ERHC and not pre buying before the deal. I hate to mention Oily but that is what he is indicating. I do not trust or believe Oily but it is possible he could be right for once. I hate say that or even think that but it did cross my mind.
On the positve side it was nice to see the shareprice nearly hold today (with only a half cent drop). Fair volume as well. I think MarkGs rumor have some here buying creating enough demand to keep the SP at 36-37 if not push it to 40 by the end of the week.
Onward and upward to a buck.
Hunter, it is sure nice to here that someone has done so well trading this stock over the past three years. That is one hell of a accomplishment considering the price has dropped from nearly a buck to a low of ten cents with very few up periods. It is hard to believe one could do so well in a falling market. I like that you are "long" now as it appears the price is ready for a nice climb upwards. The fact that trade is risky and not for all people. I have believed in this stock because of the oil but other factors like the investigations have caused the price to go down. I choose to wait it out with my expensive pre-investigation share and average down at what I felt were low points. The drop in price from the investigatios and delays in drilling only gave me what I felt were opportunies to average down. I felt trading was/is too risky for me. I am very happy with my present position even though I am way top heavy in ERHC. Are you fully loaded with your ERHC shares or do you plan on buying more before MarkG's possible news.
DeGen
Ps: it is not polite to call Tryoty (Troy) Toyboy that is NOT his name and is offensive. It is also likely aTOS violation. So please refrain from using that monica in the future.
StoneMt, agreed SEO may know a lot about the seimics. But what do we as common shareholdes know. Do we know enough to make an educated decision about an offer from Addax? My point was Addax (the maker of the offer) has far superior knowledge about how much oil there may be than us coMmon shareholders who may have to make a "blind" decision.
Some random thoughts about the possible Addax / ERHC deal.
Time is on ERHC's side. The more time goes by, the closer we are to drilling. Once drilling occurs the more information we will have on the value of our assets. Why should we be in any hurry to sell out now when in a few months we will have a better feel for what we are worth. Why is Addax in a hurry to get a deal closed before drilling? Is that for their benefit or ours. Addax holds or has all the knowledge of the studies they conducted on the JDZ. What do we have? Does anyone want to make a deal knowing vertially nothing while the company making the offer knows everything? Does this sound fair? Why would anyone here be in a hurry to deal with someone who holds all the cards while we have yet to even see the cards we have been dealth. I like to see my cards before I decide whether to play in a hand. Playing blind is only for fools or suckers. I don't think anyone here is a fool and no one wants to be played for a sucker.
So why would anyone be in hurry to sell now before drilling? Time is on OUR side. Now patience is a virtue and this time patience will be rewarded.
I continue to predict 40 cents by end of week.
Miami, I thoroughly enjoyed your first post which was well thoughtout and showed great insight. However, your next post the one I am replying covered your constitutional issues which was TMI (too much information) although it was very funny. Keep up your good posts here and no need to share them with the other board. Those guys can come over here and read them.
What kind of deal is one "no one will like"? Personally I do not mind a taxable transaction since many of my shares (as well as most here) are held over one year so the tax rate is 15% which is a very fair rate compared to the other tax rates. So that would not make ME unhappy.
So then it may be the "sale price". The worst I would expect would be two bucks. But even with that price I would grin and bear if it was forced upon me. I would vote against that price if it was voted on and I think many others would do the same. Once a formal offer is made @ what ever price, the price will reflect that offer price very closely.
So please, SHOW ME THE OFFER!!!
Troy, agreed very nice trading today. Orderly rise again. Nice close at high of day ( prior to after hour trade at even higher!). Close bid 37 ask 388, so it looks good for tomorrow. Heading for 40 by end of week. I can not wait for the news to break.
Troy, isn't late June the end of Q2 which matches up with one source of when drillling will begin in the JDZ. So hope is not lost for all those 7 drill rigs to actually happen.
I also like that the SP is holding from yesterday's gain in the mid 30s. I am still predicting hitting 40 by the end of the week!
Lone, it should be directed at Hunter who has created/caused ALL of it.
dreamtrader, you are right Hunter's comments about another stock from the past are not appropriate here. I also wonder why he thinks I (actual ALL shareholders here invested in ERHC) are bag holders. Hunter himself has indicated he owns ERHC now, so does that make him too a bag holder by what he says. As usual, he pulls things out of his ass and posts them to be vindictive and hurt others. Not a very nice person.
OT Yes, Hunter, I did buy some shares in the 80's prior to the raid, but maybe you missed this post on ERHC board because you are banned over there. In any event I am now very close to being green by my averaging down.
Posted by: DegenerateGambler Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2008 1:21:39 PM
In reply to: emdyal who wrote msg# 148246 Post # of 157859
After sitting on my buy order at an even ten cents for the last several days, that today I decided to bump it up to 10.5 then finally to 10.6, which filled a short while ago. So, I picked up another 100,000 shares (in two 50K buys at 10.6 today at 12:21:22 for those who want that verified). I really feel that this end of the year selling is now over and with that ending, the continue downward trend will end at well. I look forward to a steady rise in January as those who sold in December get back in.
My boat is so overloaded with EHHE shares it may sink (over one million shares)
DeGen
PS: Happy New Year to all, I know all ERHE shareholders will have one. One dollar by this time next year.
Ps: I hope the share price does make the dollar I predicted by the end of the year. I bet it does.
Hunter, how does posting the bid/ask hype a stock? They are facts plain and simple, just like the closing price on a stock. Since this is a penny stock there is a great difference between the bid and ask depending on whether the stock closes on one or the other. Sometime 5% difference. Don't you realize that?
So when CNBC posts the closing prices of stocks, they are hyping? Where do you come up with this stuff from? (out of your ass?)
Nice close at High of Day (34 cents), even though is was the ask. Those MMs have no shares to sell and this rise should continue all week. I can not wait for real news (MarkG prediction) to hit the wires. Still would like to see more volume, at least over 1 million shares traded.
The level II action is interesting
Bid----------------Ask
Nite 32------------Able 33
Able 31------------Nite 36
It appears we are very close to getting to 36
These 2 MM are the big MMs in this stock and once Able falls off the Ask of 33, all we have left is 36. We could hit that later today if volume picks up in the last hour of trading.
I do not think we will close less than 33
The level action is interesting
Bid Ask
Nite 32
But that new timeline must have come from somewhere. I do not think that news agency would just make something up. I am not sure where they could their information from but can't I hope it is true? In any event it is only a matter of 2-3 months or 5-6 months before drilling occurs depending on which source you believe. I wonder how others here feel about what to believe.
No gap up this AM but a nice climb to 33+ cents for a 10% gain on moderate volume. It appears that one MM was holding the price down as he must have had many shares to sell at around 30 cents. Now that he is gone there has been a nice rise in the share price. I am still hope for high 30s by end of week and much more is MarkG's potential news is announced. I do not understand why there is not more excitement and discussion of the new drilling timeline expected in THIS QUARTER (late 2nd Q). That is fast approaching only 2+ months away.
YankeMike, I am FULLY loaded right now, and I do mean FULLY. I have bought many more (too many) this past year and now I am content to wait for all those good things that I know are going to happen.
OIL OIL OIL or BUY IN/OUT BUY IN/OUT BUY IN/OUT
Certainly something good is going to happen in the next few months and I will be here waiting for it to happen.
Anybody predicting a gap up Monday AM?
Troy, I somehow missed that post of MarkG. I see now the leak is involved with some sort of deal with ERHC and ADDAX. MarkG noted it would be before drilling. However, the latest scuttlebutt about the drilling has is pushed up to the end of the 2nd Q. That is less than three months away! Any pre-drill deal must be just around the corner for that to occur.
However, only time will tell and I would think any deal would require shareholder approval at least by ERHC shareholders and possibly ADDAX shareholders as well. I can not envision all this happening before drilling if drilling occurs in the 2Q. Can you? June 30 is not that far away.
Anyhow, I can see why everyone is getting so excited and expecting a boost in the share price on Monday AM. I hope we get back into the mid or upper 30s by the end of the week. Any leak of the deal may rocket this baby over 50 or 60 cents.
MarkG indicates Winner Winner Chicken Dinner. Of all the senerios I come up the one that fits best is wifi win in a legal case. Well block 5/6 is in arbitration and there is the DOJ. In the DOJ investigation you do not "win" you just do not get indicted. But ERHC can win in block 5/6 case by getting the rights to the blocks back.
But if we get nice buy out offer we are all winners!!
As far as hearing anything about the investigations I do not believe that is very likely at this time, especially from a "leak". If anything is announced about the investigations it will be an official gov't document to ERHC that will be PRed within a short time of receipt. It is unlikely there will be a prior leak about this news. In in the past I have tried to get information from the DOJ about the ERHC investigation but they have been very uncooperative. I still have hope about getting information from the DOJ in the future.
Posting about ERHC and/or developments in the JDZ on the IHUBs has been enjoyable in the past. I have kept up with reading the ERHC and JDZ boards over the years but rarely posted on the JDZ board as the discussions there were fewer and much less active. But I sure would like the JDZ board to remain active if not overtake the "other" board.
Recently on the other board I posted many replies to Dadds policy pointing out how hypocritical it was. Just like Troy posted, the moderators would pick and choose what off topics were deleted and what would remain. I felt this was very unfair and posted how negative comments about Dadds moderatoring unfairness. For this I was banned from the ERHC board for 5 days. I protested to the HiAdmis to no avail. The banning has now been lifted but I have little desire to go back to posting there. And they wonder why they lose good posters when they treat us like children. I was banned with no warning. I found out about it when I tried to post and was informed I was banned. Long live the JDZ board.
DeGen
Ps. YankeMike, you can let me know either email or here whether you believe the banning was justified since you can read all the deleted posts.
Troy, I am not sure what you mean. What is the difference between fame and notoriety? They can mean the same thing. Charhlie Manson was both famous and notorious. I understand notorious has a negative conotation but fame is for everyone in the limelight whether bad or good. I am not trying to knit pick just trying to find out what you meant.
BTW, in addition to fame I believe Offor is in it for the money as well.
Troy, I am in full agreement with you about the SP hovering at 30 cents. This SP represents a balance of buyers / sellers and not any conspiracy theories suggested. Plain and simple, with no news to propel the price upwards we must for the drillships. In fact we are lucky not to drift down with no news and low volume. There are always those that MUST sell to raise cash especially around tax time. With the economy being as bad as it is some may need to sell because other income is lower than in the past.
More importantly, you are spot on about any deal with Chrome would prohibit SEO from voting his shares and make any "steal" very unlikely to occur. IHUB members represent quite a few shares and vocal shareholders at that. Any deal would be discussed / debated very thoroughly. Hopefully the IHUBers will unite in their vote.
The point that China is "courting" Addax is not news. JCG has publically acknowledged that he receives inquires every about interest in buying the company. It is not a far stretch to realize that China has strong interest in Addax. Those "dots" are already connected! Then there is the GAP which no one knows how wide it is or if the parties will ever get. One can only think that JCG is a smart negotiator (like SEO) and knows he will get a better price AFTER the blocks are drilled and oil is proven. Therefore, I can not believe any deal will be finalized before drilling. IMHO
Between BB and Markgovols "sources" that an ADDAX/ERHC/China deal is in the works gives all of hope for the quick buck. But one has to step back and realize how much is someone willing to pay for a 30 cents stock? (and be able to justify the offer to the shareholders) The premiums being bandied around ($6-$8) just are NOT realistic at today's share price. Has there ever been a buy out offer for a company at more than 20 times their stock price. That's a two thousand percent premium. Certain things MUST happen prior to that kind of price being offered. Most importantly, ERHC share price MUST be higher, much higher. The only way for that to happen is either oil must be found or a public offer is put on the table. Maybe the first offer will be for around a buck and the share price will react. But the shareholders holders will also react, by probably laughing at the offer. Time will pass, but the share price in reflection of the offer will be approach a buck. Then maybe a second higher offer after the first is rejected by the shareholders. All this will take time and soon the drilling will occur. If the results are good, that alone will drive the share price way up, way way up. Those figures YankeMike keeps posting will become more and more realistic and WILL reflect in the share price.
But the bottom line is all this takes time and there is no way there will be buy out in the multi dollar figures in the near future. Maybe next year at this time ERHC will get to the $5 figure, but not this year. This is being realistic.