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The put/call ratio doesn’t get any more bullish!
F2, I have always thought the value of the holdings was calculated by the closing price at quarter end x shares held. I did not know the institutions reported their average cost per share. Interesting!
Exactly why I continue to buy!
That’s it verbatim!
Lebby is very excited about 2022! If that isn’t guidance, I don’t know what guidance is! That’s a paraphrase!
When entering an option order, the trader must designate whether the action is one of the following:
STO - sell to open
STC - sell to close
BTO - buy to open
BTC - buy to close
Today I placed several STO trades for the 09/16/2022 10.00 P. Because these were STO trades, the open interest increased by the volume of my trades (28). If the contracts remain open until 9/16, I will either book the proceeds as profit (stock price is >$10) or the owner of the put contracts will force me to buy 2,800 shares at $10 (stock price is <$10). In other words, I either book a profit of $13,440 or I buy 2,800 more shares at a net price of $5.20 per share. I am happy will either outcome!
The buyer of these puts paid me $13,440 to be able to sell me 2,800 shares at $10 up until 9/16/22. There is no way for me to know if the buyer already owns stock that they want to limit their losses, but not sell. If they do not own any stock, then they are just gambling that they can make a profit if the stock continues to go down.
Hope that helps!
Pitcook, I understand your point, but I think when Lebby says our technology is additive to silicon photonics, it is easy to fab, no capital investment is required by the fab, etc., I think he is saying no production downtime is required to add in our technology.
However, adding in our technology has to start with a new run cycle. I read somewhere that Malta has 19 production lines and there are videos showing a “set” of wafers being moved around during a production cycle. Depending on the production line, a cycle could last between a few weeks and six months.
I have done a lot of research and still don’t feel like I really understand very much about the process or the technology!
I am the seller of Sept puts with the $10 strike. So far sold 17
It sure looks like Lebby is holding back info so that the first joint press release will be HUGE. Marcelli held back answers on the Nasdaq application because if they were not approved, they did not want to have to announce that. Same philosophy goes here with the foundry partnerships. It is a not if, but when!
What does Chen and Lightwave Logic have in common?
GOLD
Somebody posted first thing this morning that MZ is switching their email system now and that is why today’s press release came from the company instead of MZ. Should be fixed in a day!
Very likely, Meghan! I posted about a company with 21 million shares outstanding that traded 120 million shares in one day! Shares are traded back and forth at increasing prices putting the name on hot sheets. Momentum traders jump in and buy newly issued shares. The stock went from $1 to $2 and back to $1. The company raised money that day at $1.70 instead of $1.
Agree completely! I have been shorting mostly June puts mainly because that is after the ASM. September is well after commercial agreements should have been announced and revenue guidance follows those partnerships. The premiums are insane!
The put premiums continue to be very high with bid size typically around 40,000 shares. Personally, I do not think these bids are from long positions hedging against the worst case scenario. I think there is a fair amount of conviction among the short sellers that they are right and the stock will continue to fall back under $2.
For example, I am short 110 puts of the 9/16/22 $5 puts with an average proceeds of $1.41. The buyers of these puts breakeven on the expiration date at $3.59. That is a lot of conviction!
I can’t explain it. The only thing that makes sense is the lack of real research into the technology. I have spent hundreds of hours researching the technologies involved in making the internet work now and in the future and have made minimal progress. The shorts seem just to follow Gold Panda from Bulgaria and White Diamond from cell block D.
No doubt some of your recent purchases have been from short sellers. According to X the short sellers are continuing to supply shares to long term buyers. Demand seems to be stronger than supply since January 21 trading.
The short interest has risen from zero to 8.22 million while the institutional holdings have risen from basically zero to something over 10 million. Usually shorts sell to wild and crazy retail investors, but in this case, the shorts have sold to institutional investors whether they be managed funds or index funds.
This is looking like the foundation for a violent short squeeze if partnership new happens fairly soon and the first announcement is as impressive as we hope!
Agree! This is a bush league show and audience. But, it is an opportunity for Q&A.
Quite possible to get another evasive answer!
That is why we should not ask about revenue and guidance again and again! The question should be:
During the 2021 ASM presentation, you set forth a number of goals for the coming year. One of which was a Commercial Agreement with Customer. Do you expect to meet this goal?
Answering this question is not providing guidance, but it is a prerequisite to providing guidance. In addition, Dr Lebby’s cash bonus is tied to meeting this public goal.
What if 20 people wrote in asking that question verbatim!
I would phrase a question like this: During the 2021 ASM presentation, you set forth a number of goals for the coming year. One of which was a Commercial Agreement with Customer. Do you expect to meet this goal?
Remember Dr Lebby stated he did not think the PDK development process was taking any longer for Lightwave’s polymer technology than the typical PDK for electronic silicon photonics. February is at a minimum the 9th month that Lightwave Logic has been working on completing the PDKs with multiple large foundries as well as smaller specialty foundries.
We have to be very close to completing this work. Since Jan 21st, the stock has been building a very nice base even though short interest has been rising. There are enough buyers to absorb the short selling, in my opinion! This is extremely bullish.
There is some environmental benefit in that the energy produced in one location (power plant) will have much lower emissions than thousands of cars driven by lead footed drivers. That is the only real benefit of EV.
All of the going green examples highlighted have a higher cost to implement and operate. The ONLY example of which I am aware is the fork lift upgrade at the data centers to switch the transceivers to Lightwave Logics technology. The upfront cost is lower, the operating costs are half as much, and the performance is 3x better. The foundries have greater throughput and profitability and are hungry for the P2IC business.
It makes sense to ask Dr Lebby about your areas of doubt.
It would be fun if you were the pilot taking me to the 2022 Annual Shareholder Meeting!
The implication is a limited time commitment to serve on the Board. My guess is that the option expiration date is a typo since anyone can resign from the BOD at any time.
X, did my email go into your spam folder?
I believe there was a slew of responses on what % of the total power consumption would be affected. The consensus was between 26% and 30%. So if the annual electric bill was $100 million, it would now be $70 to $74 million. Removing the driver chip is the big variable. Again, I wish Lebby would articulate the value proposition in greater detail.
I agree! I found an article on the internet that stated a large foundry uses as much power as 200,000 homes. That is about $400 million per year and there are thousands of data centers on planet Earth! Lightwave’s modulators can save about 30% of that electric bill so there are no greener projects that I can think of! EV, wind, solar all consume a lot of fossil fuels just to build the products. The payback periods are lengthy! However, the Lightwave value proposition has a very fast payback period. I wish Lebby had answered that question at the end of the Oppenheimer presentation!
X, can you share the name of this service either publicly or privately?
Speaking from experience!
I would feel better about two degrees of separation!!
I cannot interpret Dr Lebby’s words any differently! “Foundries are hungry for the Opto business! Their business model is to push more wafers through their production lines!”
Demand for electronic computer chips is very strong and production time for those type chips will never switch over to producing modulators. Silicon photonics production time will switch over to polymer silicon photonics. New production lines within existing foundries will be more inclined to solicit polymer silicon photonics (P2IC) which takes about three weeks to complete a wafer (Source is Marcelli) vs the 14 weeks sited in the video referred to in my earlier post.
I couldn’t find the video that I remember stating 4 to 6 months, but that really isn’t the point.
The Oppenheimer presentation on December 14 starting at 17:10 minutes is where I got the faster throughput concept.
I realize you believe Dr Lebby is a con artist, but you stand alone on that belief.
YouTube video: semiconductor production process explained 7 months ago
14 weeks
A wafer containing microchips of the most sophisticated nature takes about six months to manufacture! A wafer containing modulators takes how many weeks to manufacture? Now do you understand why foundries are hungry for the photonics market?
HG Genuine located in Wuhan, China has the capacity to produce 500,000 state of the art transceivers per week.
Www.Lightwaveonline.com
That is 26 million transceivers per year. How many modulators per transceiver?
What is Lightwave’s revenue per modulator?
Lightwave only supplies the Goo! The big revenue is from licensing the technology to the foundries so the ROA is very high.
Apparently the analysts at the Vanguard Funds have done the math!
Lebby is not going to give any guidance until after the terms of a foundry partnership has been locked down and signed. The ability to mass produce comes prior to accepting an order. Let’s hope those “fork lift upgrades” create an order backlog that exceeds the foundry’s capacity.
I continue to believe the revenue ramp will go from zero to $10 billion in 2025. I also believe the third quarter of 2022 will be the beginning of that ramp.
I do not believe we are listed on anyone’s Approved Vendor List quite yet. That is a stated goal Lebby listed for the one year ending in May.