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GBG: This is dumb. What´s the purpose of announcing a PP without stating the prices? Nice way to kill the stock price
AGT- So is everyone cool with the situation and dropping their pants down to let the financing entities burglarize our butts or switching to something else and if so what ? I have been selling some of my (sort of huge) position on AGT the last few days ( ever since the details on the projected financing was let known) and went huge on GBG.
They have a financing pending for this month, but given their size and financial position, we might not expect a gang rape this time. Anyway, its from South African banks. Anyone has any knowledge/experience on wha kinda deal we might expect down there?
The Company is in the process of negotiating a project funding facility with a syndicate of South African Banks and is optimistic that the negotiations will be successfully concluded this month, subject to execution of final documentation.
And so, what are those oil stocks you are still holding?? POE? I´m holding only 2 which I would recommend to anyone: AXC.TO ( not exactly a Junior) and IOX.OL in Norway ( certainly a junior regarding their market cap, but not regarding their production).
TIA
SMC/BTO.TO - Second day in a row showing a round trip from severe losses to close about break even. Dont know what to make of it. Maybe if I was a TA guy I could say the stock looks tired or something to that tune.
Yeah, good luck. But gold is breaking 980 right now and oil getting creamed...again! You are right selling the miners here has big risk of missing a huge run up...
Bob. Thanks! I own AQ as a result of having owned PAF previously. Agree on Irwin Olian. This guy looks like worth following...
The upshot is investors and funds are once again investing
in mining operations, development and exploration.
It is conceivable that this investment will soon
start bargain hunting in gold exploration and the battered
base metals, coal, oil and specialty metal companies.
As with gold the window of opportunity is
currently wide open for bargain hunters and, also as
in gold, it will rapidly close.
Anyone else believes it might be time to start looking for bargains amongst gold explorers, not just near-term producers (current focus on this thread) ? Or is it too early in the game ?
GBG: Bought some at 1.58 today. Soon fully financed, aiming at 400k opy. How much might they be worth??? Certainly not the current mkt cap at + 300m. ? Guess this can be a multibagger down the road as well.
Chinese Nervous about U.S. to Diversify into Gold with Massive $1.95 Trillion Foreign Reserves
Of even more significance are the drumbeat of Chinese concerns, the U.S.’ largest creditor regarding their massive U.S. Treasury and other debt holdings. Bloomberg reports that influential Yu Yongding, a former adviser to the People’s Bank of China, said that China should seek guarantees that its $682 billion holdings of U.S. government debt won’t be eroded by “reckless policies”. Premier Wen Jiabao said last month his government’s strategy for investing would focus on safeguarding the value of China’s massive $1.95 trillion foreign reserves.
Yongding said that “China should diversify its reserves away from U.S. Treasuries if the value of China’s foreign-exchange reserves is in danger of being inflated away by the U.S. government’s pump-priming,” he said. He has previously said that China should diversify into the euro, yen, oil and gold. Yongdinghas has warned of possible panic selling of dollar assets leading to a global financial collapse and has said that the potential increases in the value of gold meant China should be hedging its bets by diversifying into gold.
Dow Jones reported in November that China's central bank is considering raising its gold reserve by 4,000 metric tons from 600 tons to diversify risks brought by the country's huge foreign exchange reserves, according to a Chinese newspaper.
China has almost certainly been nibbling in the gold market as they attempt to gradually diversify out of dollars and into gold. Especially in light of the fact that they have less than 1% of their currency reserves in gold unlike most western nations whose gold reserves are very significant percentages of their overall reserves. Despite having the largest foreign currency reserves in the world, they are only 9th in terms of central bank gold reserves and this will change in the coming years as they rebalance and diversify their foreign exchange reserves
By Mark O'Byrne, Executive Director
… there is a scenario which few other people are taking about. As part of our often-mentioned forecast for a ranging, reversion to the mean recovery rally first hypothesized in late October, there is a possibility that stock markets will do surprisingly well in the next few weeks. Strong rallies would eventually leave markets susceptible to partial pullbacks, including some right-hand base formation extension.
How could strong rallies possibly occur when everyone is talking about depression? The answers can be found in sentiment and liquidity. Today, most people are either incredibly bearish or despondent, but extreme forecasts are seldom accurate, as I have mentioned before. However, there is plenty of liquidity in many portfolios and governments have significantly increased money supply in recent months. A rising stock market would force a reappraisal by bears, leading to a reversal of short positions, while long-only investors put more of their cash back into the stock market.
This scenario has been repeteadly suggested by the great Marc Faber, who at the same time has correctly been favoring gold stocks since November.
Such "scary" an outcome would not favor gold short term, but I think gold mining stocks could still fare well given they are equities and the still very high reading on the GOLD/XAU ratio at 7. What does anybody else think?
AGT:Money Show Presentation. Even though I did register on the moneyshow.com site and was able watch the presentation on Friday, now I cant get to see a replay on the website. Anyone know how to do it or is not just there anymore?
GORO: Does anybody know if they have any plans to get out of the OTCBB so their shares become marginable with most brokers?
Who is St Andrews and why their need to sell? A distressed hedge fund?? Glad I bought a few at 20 cents
Shouldnt SMC trade around USD 65c based on CAD 62c for BTO.TO and USD/CAD 1.21 ??? We are talking a HUGE discount here...
Price should be closer to .62 cents based on BTO.TO closing. And that´s WITHOUt any take over premium to SMC shares. With that taken into account, 70 cents should be more like it for SMC, so that small purchase at 60 cents is not really off base.
Incidentally, it was done by me ;)
My last topping I swear!
I certainly hope so. BTO trading looks kinda weird with no volume considering the company just morphed ( or trying to) into an actual producer. So this is a really under-followed co. Anyway, thanks for pounding the table on SMC! My bruised accounts
needed something like this
!
Yes, BTO seems to trade only by appointment
AGT: what price level would that be??
How does this affect your LT price target on combined entity?
SMC/LRR/Kinross: I keep reading Kinross might end up paying 100M for the Mexican property held by LRR. But that´s HIGHER than the whole enchilada!!! ( LRR+ SMC) So say in a few months even with LRR/SMC at US 150 M market cap it could be more accretive to Kinross to go for a full takeover instead. I am offbase here?
I agree. Todays move by these assholes was totally offbase with the market for small caps and everything recovering so much. Can you recommend what could be picked up instead of IB?
Andrew Mickey Mouse... PATHETIC WRITE UP !!! Do yo agree on this POS paid for trash for the shorts article ???
PYR.V: Here´s for even yet insaner prices!! ! PYR just traded at 30 cents !!! Now improving at 58 X 67. Managed to buy some at 55.
You have to love this market ( as log as you keep some cash to buy up distressed stuff!)
Any indications we have to look for before we get to think they are over liquidation? what a sell off!
PHOS CC: Anything on the new supply contract with Morocco? It was supposed to be announced by June I think
Admiralty Resources, ADY.AX. Bob: So are you still keeping them or decided to sell out? I made a quick 15 to 25 cents profit on them and sold out about 80%. thinking about moving the rest of the monies to MAK.AX or RWD.AX instead
cheers
Bob, what are your faves in the U arena? I´m only holding a little URC.V there right now. TIA
and AGU,MOS and POT all tank on the news¿. go figure
SCAPEGOATING THE SPECULATORS
By ALAN REYNOLDS
NY Post
June 20, 2008 -- SEN. John McCain recently called for a "thorough and complete investigation of speculators" to see if they've driven up oil prices. And Senate Democrats plan a new bill aimed at commodity speculators - a witch hunt that's clearly about oil.
But, much as politicians would like to blame speculators, it's just not so.
For starters, there's nothing about futures or options that makes it any more attractive to bet that commodity prices will go up than to bet they'll go down. Guess wrong on the direction, and you lose money.
The "blame speculators" theorists have several worries. Investors in oil futures don't take delivery of oil, they note with unexplained suspicion. More, futures and options may involve margin debt and leverage - meaning you might need put only, say, $8 down to make a $100 investment (though you're still liable for the whole $100 if you've bought a lemon). And there's been a marked rise in investing in commodity-index funds, greatly increasing the total amounts in those markets.
The first complaint is irrelevant nonsense: Investors in oil futures don't take delivery of oil because they sell their contracts before the contract expires to oil refiners and distributors - who do take delivery of oil.
Yes, if the price of next month's oil futures goes up, that can encourage producers to slow their sales on the spot market. And a higher price for next month's oil can encourage refiners to buy more now rather than later. Both reactions could push the cash price up.
But they would also cause oil inventories to rise. And rising inventories always bring the price back down. Yet US oil inventories appear modest at present - so there's little evidence that speculation had much to do with recent prices (aside from one-day spikes from scary rumors or news).
The second fear turns on the use of leverage and debt. This is mainly concerned with options (derivatives), because that's where a small down-payment can control a lot of oil.
But there's no more incentive to bet that the price will go up (called a "call option") than to bet it will go down (a "put option").
A call option might guarantee the right to buy oil for $138 three days before the futures contract expires. But if that price turns out to be too high, the option becomes "out of the money" - worthless.
And speculation that oil prices will rise rather than fall has dropped drastically since we crossed $100 mark. The "net long" position on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell from 113,307 contracts on March 11 to 25,246 by June 10 -so nearly as many traders are now shorting oil as are going long.
More: Purely financial speculators needn't play futures at all. They can simply buy (or short) the exchange-traded US Oil Fund, which tracks the price of West Texas crude. And The Wall Street Journal reports that short interest in that fund is up 140 percent since January, outnumbering long bets by two to one.
Speculators, in other words, are increasingly leaning toward betting the price of oil will go down, not up. So they're unlikely villains if prices do keep rising.
The third worry centers on investments in commodity indexes by pension funds and college endowments. But this contradicts the second complaint - because these institutions by law can't use leverage or debt.
Index funds simply buy next month's contracts and sell them early, during the second week of the month, using the proceeds to buy the following month's contract. And such mid-month trading can't affect the price that matters - when futures expire.
The witch hunt got a boost from recent testimony to Senate Homeland Security Committee by Michael Masters of Masters Capital Management, who claims that an influx of cash into commodity-index funds has caused the rise in world commodity prices.
First problem here: The same period saw vastly larger investments in stock-market-index funds - yet the S&P 500 stock index sometimes fell.
By the way, some acolytes are getting this theory wrong. A Washington Post editorial this week cited Masters as blaming hedge funds. In fact, he explicitly blames pension funds and university endowments for investing in those commodity-index funds. (In fact, that strategy is far too cautious for hedge funds.)
In any case, investing in an index of commodity prices can't lift the prices of individual commodities - any more than investing in stock-index funds could automatically raise the value of individual stocks in the index.
Another variation: Some argue that the sheer increase in the volume of future contracts must have lifted the prices of commodities. Sorry, no: Volume tells us nothing about futures-contracts prices - just as the overwhelming volume of stock trades on Oct. 19, 1987 (Black Tuesday) did not mean stocks were going up.
From November 2000 to November 2001, the volume of crude oil futures contracts in New York rose from 2.8 million to 3.2 million - even as the price of crude fell from $34 to $20.
There is no mystery behind the rise in oil prices. They rose too high too fast because of booming demand for oil for petrochemical products, electric power and shipping from many emerging economies (particularly China, India and the Middle East). Meanwhile, the supply of oil slipped in the US, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.
But now JPMorgan analysts estimate that oil will drop to $85 a barrel from 2009 to 2011. Even Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murti, who recently guessed oil might reach $200, later told Barron's that oil will likely drop to $75 or less in the long run.
The urge to blame speculators is as big a waste of time as blaming oil companies. Americans want more oil and gas - not more hot air from politicians.
Alan Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Cato Institute
Totally agree with LT_Matt
CHE simply fantastic!!! Any other picks amongst any other high yielded unit trusts with upside potential? I´ll soon have some CAD $ available for a long term oriented account
LOL. I´m still with it too
Viva the Largo Acido !!!
MOS: Do you think it might be somehow underperforming related to funds being poured to the new comer IPI and being removed from MOS? Its having the worst performance amongst the ferts ever since IPI went public.
Coxe fans might find this new series of Leveraged ETNs on commodities useful.... it includes one for Livestock
http://www.etfsecurities.com/csl/lev/etfs_livestock_le.asp
Citi rates Yara hold with a target price of NOK 380.
Always good to see Citi targets well surpassed by market action.
will the anal.yst now increase his "target" or what?
meanwhile Citi writes down USD 14B and has the finantials running wild for celebration and manages to have my SKF down again for the day. ouch
According to Donald Coxe the best performing commodity class within the next 6 months will be livestock.
Nelson.
You got a deal on Vilmorin. That day it got down to 105 and even a little lower I recall buying and selling quick just 500 shares to gain a couple euros on them on my trading IB account.... the big "thing" that day.... there was an idiot "Anal-yst" droping his "target" from 97 to 95.... wow!!! such a big deal!. the asshole couldnt possibly tell a seed from a skin on his ass, but he managed to keep the stock 7 % down for the day.
Now it´s back to 116... and we still only buy their seeds at our local Auchamp store...
I just found out IB has a few Norwegian options available.... just some of the top notch stocks there... including YAR !!!! Should I have known before..... Final target on YAR (couple years is around 1,000 NOK.
BUT bear in mind, their operations are replicable though, that might be the case from their undervaluation when compared to POT,MOS or AUG, BUT that is YEARS AWAY until the Russkies or the Saudis have their projects moving in..... earlir I red was 2011, that should still give a couple 2 years of party for YAR.
Hard to believe last August one could buy up YAR shares at 150 NOK and thank the geniouses at Wall Street for their derivatives mess for it!!!
Now they are on their way to a 3 bagger and this stock is still GODDAMN CHEAPO!!!!!