full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
AUMN earnings:
Read 10Q here: http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100504/aumn10-q.html
... or the high level news release below:
Golden Minerals Reports First Quarter 2010
Golden Minerals Company ("Golden Minerals" or the "Company") (NYSE Amex: AUMN) (TSX: AUM) announces results for the first quarter 2010.
First Quarter 2010 Financial Results
For the first quarter 2010, Golden Minerals recorded a net loss of $7.0 million, which included among other items, $2.3 million in revenue net of associated costs for management services and interest and other income of $0.7 million, more than offset by expenses including $3.2 million of exploration expense, $2.5 million of expense related to El Quevar feasibility study work and $2.3 million of administrative expense.
At March 31, 2010, Golden Minerals' aggregate cash and short-term investments totaled $45.9 million, which included $13.0 million in net proceeds from private placements of common stock and $27.6 million in net proceeds from a public offering of common stock, each of which was completed in the first quarter. The March 31, 2010 amount includes $40.6 million of cash and cash equivalents and $5.3 million in short term investments comprised of US treasury securities. At December 31, 2009, the Company's cash and short-term investments totaled $9.0 million.
In January 2010, the Company acquired Hochschild Mining Group's ("Hochschild") 35% interest in certain portions of the El Quevar project in exchange for 400,000 shares of the Company's common stock and a warrant to acquire 300,000 shares of its common stock exercisable for three years at an exercise price of $15.00 per share. The Company now owns or controls 100% of the 66,000 hectare El Quevar project, including the Yaxtche deposit on which a feasibility study is being conducted.
Also in January 2010, the Company completed a private placement of 844,694 shares of its common stock to two investment funds managed by The Sentient Group ("Sentient") at a purchase price of Cdn$7.06 per share, resulting in net proceeds to the Company of approximately $5.5 million.
On March 24, 2010 the Company completed a public offering of 4,000,000 shares of common stock at an offering price of $8.50 per share. The Company sold 3,652,234 shares and a selling stockholder sold 347,766 shares. Concurrent with the public offering, Sentient exercised its existing pre-emptive right and purchased in a private placement pursuant to Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 an additional 905,065 shares of common stock at the public offering price of $8.50 per share. The aggregate net proceeds to the Company from the sale of the shares in the public offering and the sale of the shares to Sentient was approximately $35.1 million.
For the remaining nine months of 2010, Golden Minerals expects to spend up to approximately $27.0 million on completion of a feasibility study on El Quevar, including construction of an underground drift and related infrastructure, $6.5 million on targeted exploration projects in Mexico, Argentina and Peru, $3.0 million on generative exploration projects and property holding costs and $6.5 million on general and administrative costs. The Company plans to fund these expenditures from existing cash and investment balances and from approximately $4.5 million of net cash flow from management services and $1.0 million in royalties and other income.
MERC down to $5.35 afterhours (still had a net loss for Q1).
Q1 loss/shr 21 euro cents vs loss/shr 1.08 euros last yr
* Revenue up 29 pct to 180.2 mln euros
May 3 (Reuters) - Canada's Mercer International Inc (MRIu.TO) (MERC.O) posted a narrower first-quarter loss, helped by strengthening pulp markets.
"Continued strong demand from Asia and growing demand in Europe and North America for bleached softwood kraft pulp helped support upward pricing momentum," Jimmy Lee, Mercer's chairman, said in a statement.
For the quarter ended Mar. 31, the company posted a net loss of 7.5 million euros ($9.90 million), or 21 euro cents a share, compared with a net loss of 39.4 million euros, or 1.08 euros apiece a year ago.
Revenue rose 29 percent to 180.2 million euros. Pulp revenue rose 33 percent to 171.1 million euros.
Shares of the company closed at $5.79 Monday on Nasdaq and at C$5.50 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. ($1=.7574 Euro) (Reporting by Abhiram Nandakumar in Bangalore; Editing by Don Sebastian)
Not hearing any reports lately about mill thruput or concentrates shipped. Makes me wonder how much they are working on explanations regarding "surprises, complications, weather, refurbishing parts, unexpected downtime" and other words of that ilk for the next release.
IMHO, sooner or later ... there will be some well-chosen words released to explain why they are not generating as much revenue as we had been led to expect.
JMHO ... 'peeker
I'm no options expert; Researcher59 seems to have more options experience than most here.
'peeker
ps> One particular problem I've always had with options is figuring out which one to buy based on "gamma" values and all that stuff. My experience has been that I've lost considerably more on options than I've made.
NLC already has a high PE, so it only has potential as a momo play, and it looks like the move has already happened. Nice run in the last 3 days but already popped hard this AM and has settled back.
JMHO, you'd be better off with ATPG stock or Jan11 out of money calls.
'peeker
ATPG impact of oil spill in Gulf?
The spill is getting worse. 300mile circumference. Now coming ashore in LA.
"BP, which earlier estimated the well was spewing 1,000 barrels of oil a day into the Gulf, raised its estimate to as much as 5,000 barrels a day, or 210,000 gallons daily."
Could it have been prevented? Y E S !!!
ATPG getting hit hard (as collateral damage) due to hub similarity with the rig that burned/sank and threatens environmental oil-spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.
Anybody know what kind of blowout protection they've got on the drillstring that feeds oil to Telemark hub?
My understanding is that the Transocean rig did not have the (acoustic) flow cutoff protection that exists on many rigs (required in some countries). Not sure if they didn't use it on the TransOcean rig because it was not required or what, but lots of drilling companies will be damaged if the environmental disaster continues to spill oil. They need to plug that gusher fast.
Didipio-related excerpt from the OGC.to recommendation:
The company and its future:
OceanaGold is a long term stable producer in New Zealand. That is supported by 10-12 years of M&I resources + a further 6-8 years of inferred resources, only counting the NZ mine sites. The company aims to keep 7-8 years of these resources as P&P reserves, a number that is currently 6 years but expected to grow within the target by the end of 2010. OceanaGold will probably run the Macraes Mill for at least another 15 years but we do not expect the production rate to grow from the current pace of 280,000 to 300,000 ounces. The Didipio project will soon see an updated feasibility study which we think will be followed by a sale to Korean or Chinese interests by the end of the year. The gold/copper project should be seen as a long term 110k ounce producer at cash cost of below 200 usd/ounce after by product credits. We think that one of the main options regarding Didipio is to sell it, and see 150 musd as a rather conservative estimate, something that would obviously be very pleasant for the shareholders. The other alternative, restarting development would on the other hand reinstate OceanaGold as a growth company and put them on track for 400k ounces with falling cash costs as soon as 2012-2013 something the market would obviously see as positive too. All in all, this makes Didipio a key trigger for a higher valuation the coming 6 months.
The first OCG.to article is a recommendation by O B Research (PDF file), and is much detailed and convincing than the second article, which follows here:
Thanks to garb0 for posting the links!!!
Here's the second OGC.to article:
Stock takes: Good as gold
By Tamsyn Parker (of The New Zealand Herald)
4:00 AM Friday Apr 30, 2010
The country's biggest gold miner OceanaGold is trading at a discount of up to 65 per cent below its ASX-listed peers, analysis from Austock has found.
Sydney-based analyst Anna Kassianos has increased her firm's 12-month target price for the stock from A$3.38 to A$4.61 following a site visit to the company's New Zealand South Island mines at Reefton on the West Coast and Macraes Flat near Dunedin.
OceanaGold is listed in New Zealand, Australia and Canada and closed here at $3.40 yesterday.
Kassianos - who was ahead of other analysts with a buy recommendation early last year - says the continued positive outlook now results from the cost of buying out its gold hedges coming in below what was expected, a ramp-up of exploration and an expected 86 per cent increase in ore reserve conversion rates.
OceanaGold had moved to Austock's number one pick for Australian-listed, middle-sized gold companies.
The company is the fifth largest ASX-listed gold producer but given new reserves and extended mine life, should be recognised as the third biggest physical producer, she said.
BOFI moving up, but 39% of earnings were from sale of securities.
Reports Q1 EPS of $0.77 vs the $0.46 consensus, this $7.18 mln in net income includes a $2.83 mln realized gain from the sales of securities, net of unrealized losses and income tax provisions; last quarter estimates included net realized gains on sales. The increase in interest and dividend income for the quarter was primarily attributable to growth in the average balance of loans and investment securities and higher rates earned on securities. The improvement in the net interest margin resulted from specific actions taken by the Bank to manage its assets and liabilities, as well as favorable changes in the U.S. Treasury yield curve and loan risk premiums. "I am pleased with our strong performance in this improving, but challenging, banking environment. Our results in this quarter and over the last several quarters were achieved concurrent with organically building the Bank's capital to a Tier 1 leverage ratio of 8.43% at March 31, 2010, up 22.4% from 6.89% at March 31, 2009. Excluding net securities gains, our core earnings were a record $4.3 million this quarter, up from $2.8 million for the third quarter of last fiscal year. We continue to execute on our two-pronged strategy of taking advantage of the plentiful current market opportunities and investing in our deposit and lending franchise. Our investments in our lending capabilities are well timed given the quality of the executives and employees that are available to us. We have assembled a strong team of multifamily and jumbo single family mortgage originators that are now positioned to provide us another engine for quality asset growth."
Markets This Morning (DJ Morning Briefing)
SNAPSHOT
Stocks set to gain; Treasurys steady; dollar lower; Nymex crude higher at $83.91/bbl; gold higher at $1,170.10/oz
Watch for: Jobless Claims at 0830 ET; Geithner testimony at 1430 ET; earnings ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Procter & Gamble, Burger King
OPENING CALL
Stocks are expected to open higher Wednesday as investors shrug off sovereign debt issues in the euro-zone and look to the earnings calendar for support following a slew of positive European releases.
"The U.S. markets have weathered the Greek situation well and investors still have an appetite for stocks," said David Jones at U.K. spreadbettor IG Index. "Earnings season has been positive and if it continues the recent trend we will have a good day."
EQUITIES
In M&A news, German utility company E.ON (EOAN.XE) agreed to sell its regulated U.S. electricity and natural gas business to PPL (PPL) for $7.63 billion.
With the acquisition, PPL will add two utilities in Kentucky supplying more than 1.2 million customers as it increases focus on the less risky, utility side of its business. PPL was down 7.13% in Frankfurt at 0501 ET.
Setting a high bar for its debut in the advertising business, Apple (AAPL) aims to charge close to $1 million for ads on its mobile devices this year and perhaps even more to be among the first, ad executives say.
Apple is hitting the road to showcase its new mobile-device advertising capability, dubbed iAd, and has indicated it could charge as much as $10 million to be part of a handful of marketers at the launch, a person familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. Ad executives say they are used to paying between $100,000 and $200,000 for similar mobile deals. Apple stock was flat in Frankfurt at 0524 ET.
Citigroup (C) Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said it was understandable that Americans were angry at the financial world but that Citi was undergoing a "process of soul searching," was committed to clients, and was supporting financial reform to help stop the market from falling into the same traps.
In a speech at Columbia University on Wednesday night, Pandit said the unemployment rate, high foreclosures and the economic slump were all fueling anger directed at his industry and he understood why. And he continued, as he has recently, to call for a new global order for regulation and increased transparency.
"They're hurt and they're angry, and much of that anger has been directed at the financial-services industry," Pandit said of Americans. "And I don't blame them." Citigroup was up 0.8% in Frankfurt at 0522 ET.
The SEC in recent weeks has questioned executives of a little-known firm that played a key role in the business of arranging mortgage investments, as part of the agency's probe into now-controversial deals struck at the height of the housing bubble.
GSC Group was one of several firms that helped banks including Goldman Sachs (GS) put together deals that allowed investors to bet on the housing market. The New Jersey investment firm turned down Goldman's request to select assets for the debt deal at the center of the agency's fraud lawsuit against Goldman, according to a person familiar with the matter and an email released by a Senate subcommittee this week. The concern: The deal was too risky for investors, according to the person and the email. Goldman was up 0.13% in Frankfurt at 0504 ET.
BONDS
Treasurys were steady in London trading as niggling concerns over sovereign finances in peripheral euro zone countries continued to support safe havens in general. Treasury prices had fallen Wednesday after the Federal Reserve presented a favorable assessment of the economy while holding rates near zero.
The Treasury will auction $32 billion of 7-year notes later Thursday, wrapping up this week's record $129 billion debt supply. Chicago Fed's national activity index and weekly jobless claims are the highlights of the economic calendar, while Geithner's testimony before a Senate panel will be keenly watched. The new 2-year note was unchanged at 99 30+/32 to yield 1.024%%, the 10-year was up at 98 31+/32 to yield 3.750%, with the 30-year bond up at 100 03+/32, yielding 4.617%.
CORPORATE BONDS
Spreads on European corporate credit derivatives indexes tightened in early trading Thursday as market sentiment improved slightly following news that the International Monetary Fund and European Union rescue package for Greece could now total up to EUR120 billion over three years.
FOREX
The euro rebounded slightly in Europe Thursday, helped by a small improvement in global market sentiment, but the currency remains vulnerable to continuing negotiations over Greece's debt rescue package.
he improved sentiment came largely from the Federal Reserve's upbeat statement on the U.S. economy and its decision to leave policy unchanged for "an extended period."
Nevertheless, focus remains on the negotiations for Greece's rescue plan, which according to some officials, could now amount to EUR100 billion over the next three years.
Some analysts are speculating that pressure from U.S. President Barack Obama for an early resolution, expressed in a phone call to German Chancellor Angela Merkel earlier this week, could mean that details of a package could emerge as soon as this weekend. However, it is evident that investors remain wary of celebrating too soon. While the euro may have rebounded from its one-year low at $1.3114, it is hardly racing ahead.
By 05920 ET, the dollar fell to Y94.04 from Y94.11 and to CHF1.0833 from CHF1.0856, while the pound rallied to $1.5221 from $1.5192.
COMMODITIES
Oil futures were firmer Thursday, reversing earlier losses, amid rising equity markets and a slightly stronger euro versus the dollar.
"Basically, some risk appetite is returning," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Capital. But the markets are staying within an $80-$87/bbl range, he noted, with concerns about an overhang of supplies capping gains.
Spot gold traded higher in Europe on steady safe haven demand for the metal, and any dips are likely to be bought, said a senior trader in London. "With what's going on at the moment, I don't think [gold's] going to back off far." The trader tipped $1,175/oz as the next resistance target for gold in dollar-terms. "If we get above $1,175, the all-time high [of $1,226.30/oz] is back in play."
OGC.to/OCANF.pk earnings & CC after the close today.
OceanaGold Corporation (TSX: OGC)
First Quarter 2010 Results
April 29, 2010, 5:30 PM ET
To listen to this event, go to:
http://w.on24.com/r.htm?e=205881&s=1&k=977D1B7CB93C97F29741E000350196F9
TMB.to beat estimates by .04 (Reuters)
http://www.reuters.com/article/idCAN2712521520100428?rpc=44
Canada's Tembec breaks even in Q2
Wed Apr 28, 2010 9:49am EDT
* Q2 breakeven/shr vs est loss C$0.04/shr
* Sales rise 14 pct
* Results helped by higher lumber, pulp prices
April 28 (Reuters) - Forestry company Tembec Inc (TMB.TO) broke even in its second quarter ended March 27, helped by higher lumber and pulp prices.
Three analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S had, on average, forecast a loss of 4 Canadian cents a share for the newsprint, pulp and lumber producer. The predictions ranged from a profit of 1 cent per share to a loss of 11 cents per share.
The company said it broke even in the quarter and had sales of C$476 million, compared with C$417 million a year ago.
Tembec posted a loss of C$99 million, or 99 Canadian cents a share, in the comparable three-month period a year earlier, when it completed a refinancing.
Lumber prices are at four-year highs, which will allow a cut next month in the export tax Canadian companies pay on shipments to the United States. [ID:nN23202613]
Shares of the company were trading down 4 percent at C$2.60 Wednesday morning on the Toronto Stock Exchange. They closed at C$2.72 Tuesday. (Reporting by Isheeta Sanghi in Bangalore; Editing by Roshni Menon)
TMB.to tomorrow ... Are you expecting stellar earnings in latest qtr (only started pulp mills in Feb, so not a full qtr of ops) OR do you expect mgt to express major optimism about their positive outlook?
In either case, results should be good, but not sure we will get a blowout for latest qtr. I'm hoping they give optimistic forward guidance in their earnings release tomorrow, including some talk about improved margins, and clarification of how they will treat recent profitable sales of assets.
Not sure when they will post their earnings, but their conference call is set for Wednesday at 3pm, so could have some interesting price movement near the end of the day tomorrow.
Hopefully the analysts that follow CFX-UN.to and MERC will notice and be much impressed with a positive surprise by TMB.to, so some positive comments from analysts may help help TMB.to run a little Thursday and Friday.
'peeker
AAA: How much C A S H on hand now? What if they run low on cash?
We know they now have a financing commitment for 1/3 of development costs, but we should not expect the price of the stock to get too far ahead of itself before additional financing is assured with beneficial terms for AAA. It seems that considerable dilution of stock will probably happen somewhere along the way as they start borrowing money to develop the property. While we don't want share count to increase with a premature gargantuan private placement, eventually someone will want to make another deal with AAA, and most partners will want to make sure AAA will have cash to pay interest on the money they spend.
IMHO, the talk about $30 seems to be far-fetched withful thinking at best, especially when there is so much time and money to be spent before production begins. AAA is still very early into the planning and financing, and much money must be spent along the way as they evolve into a large potash producer.
I agree AAA is a long-term potential, but realize that we cannot predict the timing of the future upward slope on the stock chart. There will be some pops and drops and lulls and buying volume and selling volume along the way. If AAA pockets are not deep enough, BHP or other interests will appear before production begins, taking advantage of little AAA when the time is right.
IMHO there is extremely high probability of a buyout by some other company well before AAA reaches $30/sh.
Bashing? No, just considering how much money should be dedicated to AAA now vs. later in the development schedule. There are still lots of unknowns as to schedule and how they will manage costs and when they will dilute current shareholders with additional PPs during the development.
Regards to All,
Steve
Thanks Cartonet, excellent idea. I shall do so.
One of the things I often find complicating my day is the need to treat some stocks as longer-term investments (value/growth plays) vs. trading opportunities (taking quick advantage of an obvious market inefficiency or other special situation).
GLTA AAAholders,
'peeker
05-10-2010 15:00:00
BSPM: looks like buying uplisters doesn't always work.
TMB.to shares down 6% today pre-earnings (due out Wednesday).
Who's the main person there to speak to about AAA? I called one time and got somebody who was not able to tell me much about what AAA was doing; perhaps he was just taking the calls for the primary person who handles AAA inquiries.
Thanks in advance,
Steve
I-Cubed renews their contract, and now you guys are already raising your personal AAA outlook on IHUB to $30.
Does anyone on this board know anyone that posts here who may have any affiliation with I-Cubed?
Hey, gotta ask... it's DD.
GLTA AAAstockholders,
'peeker
Wouldn't know. I've already said I own ALLRF.pk, so what would you like to tell me about your holding?
my69z, so are you just saying that ChinaCo has obligated to finance up to $280million for 35% of project cost, and therefore there is $560million yet to be financed by some...body... ???
If I missed something, clarify please!
'peeker
What $560 million are you talking about? If you've already discussed where this LARGE number is coming from, please just return a link.
Thanks!
'peeker
Bought some AVR.v/AVRCF.pk @ .58 this morning on the price correction and rise in gold. Happy to be in this one now, even with the speedbump.
Thanks!
'peeker
Absolutely I do!!!
You?
'peeker
Take your saw with you!
A 40% rise in a month is a bit beyond most people's expectation.
Good luck though; meanwhile I hope you enjoy your time out on the limb.
'peeker
Nelson, everytime I turn on the radio on, I think of you.
But no kidding on this, ...
Congratulations on a T R E M E N D O U S run!!!
ESPH: Good numbers in today's PR:
Ecosphere Technologies Announces Record Revenue and Debt Reduction for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2010
STUART, Fla., April 23, 2010
GLOBE NEWSWIRE
Ecosphere Technologies, Inc. (OTCBB:ESPH), a diversified water engineering and environmental services company, announced first quarter revenue in excess of $2,100,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2010. This represents an increase of 980% over the first quarter ended March 31, 2009 and an increase of 100% over the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2009. In addition, the Company has been able to reduce its debt outstanding by 55% from $8.2 million as of March 31, 2009 to $3.7 million as of March 31, 2010.
Dennis McGuire, Ecosphere Technologies' CEO, said, "We are very pleased to report this record revenue growth and debt reduction to our shareholders. It is a direct result of our patented technology being accepted by the energy companies. As we move in to the second quarter our intensified sales and marketing efforts have resulted in a number of paid pilot programs scheduled to take place for numerous leading exploration and production companies."
Adrian Goldfarb, Ecosphere Technologies' CFO, said, "We continue to show solid improvement in our financial health as demonstrated by the significant growth in revenues accompanied by a substantial reduction in our outstanding debt."
Ecosphere Technologies was recently awarded two patents for the Ecosphere Ozonix technology by the US Patent Office. Patent #s, U.S. 7,699,994 B2, U.S. 7,699,988 B2.
AGM just plain unbelievable, now up another 9% to 19.04 and I sold it last month for about 9.04 and I gotta blame selling on Wade's losing his confidence in em (nothing personal, just gotta blame somebody) ....... unbelievable move .......
OT: Kozuh, ah heck! DCTH wouldn't stay up, so I lost some hay; please extend my regrets to Lolituh as we gotta cancel the hayride.
Also ask her if the other side of her duplex is available. What zip code is she in?
pinched 'peeker
Kozuh, please leave your sister Lolituh's phone number. BBOTC promised me a good time ... so I thought I might ask her to go on a hay ride with me.
I also bought some DCTH before mkt this AM just to cover the hay, and I promise to share my big profit with Lolituh.
'peeker
08:47 DCTH: Delcath target raised to $21 at Wedbush following PHP system phase III data (nice pop on the news; now up 3.60 at 14.45)
Wedbush notes last night co reported positive data from Delcath Systems' Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP) System Phase III study in patients with melanoma that has metastasized to the liver. Importantly, in addition to the highly positive top-line hPFS data, firm's checks suggest that at ASCO, it can expect to see multiple secondary endpoints that point to a positive clinical benefit to patients, including overall survival trends. Tgt to $21 from $7.50.
Bob, Thanks for your feedback on Keith S. I may take a trial of his newsletter starting early May.
Regards,
Steve
AUM.to/AUMN: Anybody hearing any details about what is going on at this gold/silver producer? Not easy to understand what they are doing operationally on a day-to-day basis.
Though this is a long-term resource play based on multiple properties, it would be nice to have better visibility to cash reserves and CAPEX plans and which properties are in focus. They obviously don't have enough cash on hand to develop everything in parallel.
There just doesn't seem to be a plethora of info available.
Has anyone seen a summary list of all their properties and status of each (producing, drilling, etc)? Meanwhile, I need to dig thru their website to see what I can find.
GLTA,
'peeker
Glad to hear the feedback that Glencore is getting regular shipments of concentrate.
If I were to name one thing that TARM could report to improve investor confidence (at least mine), it would be monthly total tonnes processed and monthly revenues from sale of concentrate. If they were to just announce that production information for each month going forward, it would show whether "actuals" are really tracking "planned" throughput.
GLTA TRGD/TARM holders!
'peeker
TMB.to earnings and CC next week:
TEMISCAMING, QC, April 21 /CNW Telbec/ - Tembec's second quarter results for the period ended March 27, 2010 will be released on Wednesday, April 28, 2010. James Lopez, President and Chief Executive Officer and Michel Dumas, Executive Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer will be conducting a conference call intended for financial analysts and institutional investors. Also participating will be Yvon Pelletier, Executive Vice President and President of the Pulp Group, Dennis Rounsville, Executive Vice President and President of the Forest Products Group, Chris Black, Executive Vice President and President of the Paper Group and John Valley, Executive Vice President, Business Development and Corporate Affairs.
The conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, April 28, 2010 at 3:00 p.m. (EDT) and can be accessed on a listen-only basis:
Does anyone have a source for independent verification of the current AVERAGE THROUGHPUT PER DAY at the mill? The latest presentation refers to mill capacity of 240tonnes/day, but we really don't know that they are getting that thruput per day vs. that being the most that can go thru the mill in a day?
In other words, if we assume they are processing 240 tonnes/day x 365days/year we get some very good numbers on revenue. However, if they are only able to run 240tonnes/day about 3 days a week because of occasional downtime, slow days, or Mexican holidays, we should expect annual revenue that's considerably less.
The presentation didn't say they expect to process 240tonnes x 365 days per year. They said the mill can now do 240tonnes/day.
Not really trying to bash TARM/TRGD, just saying the presentation didn't say they are now processing 240tonnes/day each and every day, so we may be overestimating the revenue and profit we should expect, thus we leave ourselves open to a significant negative surprise.
'peeker
Good ATPG article was by Keith Schaefer. He has a newsletter called Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin. Does anyone here subscribe to Keith Schaefer's newsletter or hold a strong opinion about him or his recommendations? I'd love to hear about it if you do.
He's done some good articles that show up on his website as well as Seeking Alpha (and other places as well, no doubt). Anyway, it sounds like he has a good background and offers a 60 day money-back guarantee on an annual subscription (gulp; it's $399/yr).
Here's the link to the Seeking Alpha article that was posted on VM Jr. Energy board by Digitech:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/199768-atp-oil-gas-the-oil-patch-s-next-blockbuster-takeover-candidate?source=yahoo
I like his clarity and candor/balance, particularly regarding ATPG's needing to be able to meet their projections (which they are not always famous for). He did some very interesting calculations on NAV and determined that if they meet their goals in 2010 and 2011, ATPG could fetch per share valuation of $54.50, not including the $2billion infrastructure in its 3 big-ass hubs, which are Gomez, Telemark, and Octobuoy (under construction for North Sea).
FYI: Cormark=Sprott (renamed), but glad to see another published positive outlook for Allana.