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I'm hoping to sell for around $4 sometime in mid-February, of course before the PDUFA date, which would get me out about even.
The run-up would be based on two things: first, some inexperienced or "True Believer" retail investors who genuinely and mistakenly believe that a highly-unlikely FDA approval will actually occur. No matter what the drug, this group always exists.
Second, a larger group of more experienced retail investors and institutions who either bought low and are looking to dump high or who—like me—got caught by the unexpected ADCOMM vote and are encouraging the illusory and exceedingly rare notion that the FDA will ignore the committee's recommendation and approve Heplisav.
It doesn't matter what the cause, a dollar is a dollar, and I wish the best of luck to everyone in the stock.
JPMorgan Chase initiates coverage on DVAX, cites regulatory risk (i.e. it won't be approved!), target $3.
http://www.jagsreport.com/2013/01/jpmorgan-chase-initiates-coverage-on-dynavax-technologies-dvax/
I have boutht and sold for the last 8 years
Boutht? Are you serious? Boutht? Sometimes you just have to shake your head. Unbelievable.
what is happened?
Don't know, your guess are as good as mine.
I hope your wright!
A twofer.
OT: Really want to win at trivia games? Here's the top 595 historical events of 2012.
http://www.historyorb.com/events/date/2012
Best wishes to all BV'ers for a great 2013.
hold on tight, buckle up..... patients is key right now.
Not to mention confidents and due diligents.
Oraquick acceptance: OSUR stock price performance indicates oraquick may not sell. I scratched my head and can't figure out whether it's a marketing or cultural, or even public policy problem.
I think that Mann has over 1 billion of his own money in the company. Incredible.
Ralley ralley
Realley, realley.
common cents should tell anyone that...
And with a rare dime, they'll be a genius.
Because the FDA split the safety question into two parts, which obviously confused the panelists themselves.
The first safety question --has safety been adequately assessed & characterized--no vote. Stock plummets.
The second safety question--is the safety profile adequate for approval--yes vote. Stock soars.
In other words, the company has not shown it to be safe, but if you want to buy it and use it then it should be up to you!
If this doesn't show the ridiculousness of some of these panels, I don't know what does.
They basically asked the panel if the company had shown the drug to be safe. The vote was no.
Then they asked if it was safe enough for FDA approval, and the vote was yes.
Before the vote it was obvious by their questions that some members of the panel were confused about the distinction. This will serve to further muddy the water.
Re HEB ADCOM: I've been listening off and on today, just out of curiosity.
I don't listen to as many of these as most of the posters here, but if FDA doctors have ever come closer to publicly calling a company a bunch of @#$%&* incompetent liars, I'd like to see it.
DVAX being able to fix the safety issues before the next schedule FDA review has nothing to do with how DVAX will trade. The fact that there is even a 1 in a million chance that it could be approved will cause the usual FDA run-up, It's just the way things are
Easy on the ego: don't be rude.
Re DVAX: No offense, but after last month's ADCOM, there's almost no chance of FDA approval this time around.
Yes, you could play a possible bounce off of misguided expectations (that's half of biotech investing! ) but if someone actually thinks that Heplisav is going to be approved they're in for a letdown.
Best of luck.
Inclusig would have been better, IMO.
Do you think that perhaps they considered this, but thought it might run afoul of the FDA's naming policy, specifically the word inclusive?
These are my sediments as well.
Then both of you sweep them up, we're trying to run a neat board.
Question: Where does the FDA release a "preliminary review" ahead of adcom?
we are waiting for a partnership which should solve this problem ones and for long.
This dude is definitely on that rude.
Asked why Americans would need semi-automatic weapons, Republican Rep. Louie Gohmert of Texas said, “Well, for the reason George Washington said: A free people should be an armed people. It ensures against the tyranny of the government, if they know that the biggest army is the American people.”
Consolation for parents whose 6-year-old was blasted apart by an assault rifle: she died to keep us free.
never mind that 20 children were slaughtered yesterday, don't touch our guns...disgusting beyond words
This morning I'm not thinking about politics, even gun control.
I can't stop thinking about the parents and grandparents and siblings that are waking up to a new life: very painful, very permanent, eventually able to admit happiness and even joy, but forever colored by sorrow.
Their houses this morning: filled with the clothes and toys and knick-knacks of a dead child. The photos.
Sitting down to breakfast. Trying to live life one minute at a time, getting through today an unimaginably difficult task.
The next step--and I'm already hearing the faint beginnings of this--is that gun control is not the answer, but more gun possession.
If the kindergarten teacher had her .45 in a holster on her hip, and had diligently practiced her quick draw and marksmanship, why she could have plugged that no good varmint the minute he stepped into the room!
Come to think of it, why weren't those little tykes carrying handguns? Parents a bunch of sissy liberals?
Insanity, just insanity. A mass, national affliction.
SK: I agree about the intelligent discussion, something that is very often missing on iHub boards. As soon as one presents either a bull or a bear case as an alternative, the other party feels obligated to personally attack!
Anyway, I understand your distinction about the use of the word anticipation. My point is--and I'm going further out on a limb than you as far as my personal opinion goes--HEPSILAV will not be approved this time around (prior FDA actions overwhelmingly support this thesis) and anyone trading with the idea that it will be approved is sorely mistaken.
You are exactly right that the catalyst is not the approval but the possibility. So yes, certainly, if you feel that the stock will move up based on (IMHO) false expectations, then riding the wave is a good strategy.
Totally FWIW: I'm the not-so-proud holder of a rather large DVAX bag from a few weeks ago. Luckily I got in at a decent-enough price that it won't take much of a wave for me to get out whole, and that's what I'm hoping for.
Best of luck! -OB
Those poor parents: just another Friday, their kids are at elementary school, everything is fine...
I lost a child. It can't be described. This damn insanity over guns.
Look at the photos on CNN of little children being led out of the school, many crying and screaming.
The sad, sad insanity of it all.
Both Ronald & Arnold had to do with the total inability of much of our electorate to think logically and separate fact from image.
While reading about this latest unspeakable atrocity, just keep telling yourself that our forefathers wanted you to own an assault rifle and be able to shoot children in school, people out for the night at a movie theater, and shoppers in a mall.
I think that it's supposed to make you feel better.
That is very, very unlikely: FDA almost never goes against ADCOM rec.
No offense, it may move for various reasons, but betting on FDA approval this time around is a real longshot.
No need for an earmark: #msg-82481674
The latest board conspiracy theory—even more recent than the wildly popular notion that Big Pharma sabotaged the results because they were afraid of Bavi—is that PPHM management deliberately screwed things up so they could buy more cheap shares before it becomes “the Microsoft of Biotechnology."
It's fascinating, like watching a show from some alternative universe.
Gunman kills children at elementary school:
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/14/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school/comment-page-8/
Just what the hell has to happen before we come to our senses about this whole issue?
Because this morning at the opening, someone dumped over a million shares.
And that tells me something bad is in the wind-pipe.
Once in a great while, someone misuses an expression that in some weird way makes perfect sense.
Chow and watch out for that door on the way out
And while I'm at it, arrevaderchi, aster louaygo, and aw rivwah.
OT: This has probably been asked before, but why aren't there some new, active mods and an updated iBox?
Just my two cents: I can see how TA could be a useful predictive tool for stocks of large, traditional companies engaged in some cyclical type of business, but for the life of me I can't see how it's useful with small, inherently unpredictable, event-driven biotechs.
Apropos of emerging markets, I often think that Westerners—with the exception of the most radical fringes of certain political or social groups—take for granted our rational, 20th century, science-based lifestyle.
A few weeks ago I posted a Smithsonian article about Ebola in which a local doctor said that one of the biggest challenges is to get the African population to stop believing that the disease is caused by witchcraft.
Here’s a story from the Times of India:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health/Mosquito-god-worshipped-to-ward-off-dengue/articleshow/17374793.cms
'Mosquito god' worshipped to ward off dengue
Nov 29, 2012
To ward off dengue and malaria fever, people in Jharkhand's Bokaro district are offering prayers to the 'mosquito god' to seek a shield against the life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases.
A big mosquito statue was installed at Chas a day earlier and a procession organised Monday by devotees who beat drums and chanted mantras to appease the winged god.
A priest recited mantras in the presence of hundreds of people and the statue was also garlanded and worshipped before the holy fire.
"Hundreds of suspected dengue cases have been reported in the district. The health department is yet to wake up. We have sought a shield from the 'mosquito god' and tried to appease it by installing a statute and worshipping it," Rajendra Mahto, a district resident, said.
Four people have died of suspected dengue in the district which has reported around 130 cases of high fever this season. The blood samples of the patients have been sent to Ranchi and the district administration was yet to confirm the dengue cases.
"There is no facility in the district to detect dengue. The government has failed to act in time to curb the menace," said Poonam Sinha, another devotee of the 'mosquito god'.
I think this is a big problem when trying to look at CYTK data (for non-PhDs or scientists); the average investor really has no clue if their data is good/bad/neutral