Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX)

[oldberkeley]

I'm hoping to sell for around $4 sometime in mid-February, of course before the PDUFA date, which would get me out about even.

The run-up would be based on two things: first, some inexperienced or "True Believer" retail investors who genuinely and mistakenly believe that a highly-unlikely FDA approval will actually occur. No matter what the drug, this group always exists.

Second, a larger group of more experienced retail investors and institutions who either bought low and are looking to dump high or who—like me—got caught by the unexpected ADCOMM vote and are encouraging the illusory and exceedingly rare notion that the FDA will ignore the committee's recommendation and approve Heplisav.

It doesn't matter what the cause, a dollar is a dollar, and I wish the best of luck to everyone in the stock.