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ttmm, thanks for the link!
i didn't even know mark was soliciting private placement.
and for series-A stock, meaning preferred shares,
which are protected from dilution and reverses
that blow out the common.
the site doesn't cite a share conversion rate,
so i'm guessing it would be current market value?
if so, for anyone who wants to invest in MIKP long term,
and be protected from dilution down the road,
this is something to consider.
key caveat is that preferred stock
can't be sold on the open market.
your broker needs to find someone willing to buy it from you.
good timing!
you got out just before the end of day run! 💪
mod, i'm tracking TSLA, IBM, AMD today.
haven't been watching SPY.
but yeah, UVXY & DXY both rallying,
which should be double whammy bad news for SPY.
but the recent low-vol rallies seem bot manip to me,
so anything is possible if casino wants SPY higher.
never can tell with bees.
re: Feb 2 is the last day for the private placement.
context?
i'm guessing i missed something
while focused elsewhere?
i know neville's toxic debt is due feb 8th,
and that mark likely doesn't have the $60k to pay it off,
so we'll get 600m in dilution in a couple weeks.
is that what you mean?
or something else?
GG, NFLX membership & revs were up due to crackdowns on account sharing.
that was already anticipated.
but earnings on the larger membership/revenues
were 44% lower than prior quarter earnings
despite the increase in users and revenues,
which, theoretically, should be concerning.
and lower than consensus expectation.
ie: an earnings miss.
consensus forecast for next qtr earnings
are double current qtr earnings
but that's analyst estimates
not predictable fact.
honestly doesn't matter to me.
i trade the intraday charts, not the fundamentals,
as it's clear that fundamentals haven't mattered
since at least 1995.
re: Like you said "UVXY usually wins"
usually, but not always.
given the low-vol rallies this morning,
seemed clear the bots had their own plan for SPY,
and that 30-day SPY options traders weren't buying that plan,
but the bots didn't care.
apparently, the bot agenda either achieved its mission by 13:00 ET
eg: maybe enough calls were sold, that the casino went short,
and walked it down to flush the calls and profit on the shorts?
or profit-takers simply kicked in after martini lunch break
and overwhelmed the bots?
no way to know what goes on behind the curtain.
but glad both our puts worked out today.
ttmm, wherefore "10 days?"
was there a tweet of announcement that i missed?
agreed!
i'm still cautiously optimistic
that mark can pitch these compelling IP
to veteran exec prods and directors
who can drive successful production.
i'm just less confident since the RS announcement
that we current common shareholders
will still have much of a stake
in any MIKP revenues that arise over the next couple years.
hopefully mark "does the right thing"
despite not doing so in 2011,
nor with his private loan from sky.
time will tell...
SPY filled the gap,
closing under 485 today.
def wouldn't have guessed that midday
when bots were grinding upwards to new ATHs on low volume.
seems profit-taking kicked after the martini lunch crowd
returned to their desks at 13:00 ET?
and the profit-taking erased all the gains of the day,
resetting to yesterday's closing level.
will be interesting to see if profit-taking continues tmrw.
or whether the bots smack the falling knife
and grind back upward on low vol
because they can...
time will tell.
i'll be focused on TSLA and AMD tmrw
but will keep an eye on SPY, too...
re: Watching NVDA and UVXY was the key
NVDA makes sense.
but UVXY was rallying *with* SPY until 13:00 ET.
UVXY usually wins that battle, which it did today,
but didn't seem the useful co-pilot it usually is
until later in the afternoon.
great trade!
looks like you got at least 5x,
prolly more?
mod, still holding your puts?
your 488p are looking great, if so!
but maybe not for much longer?
fwiw, closed my SPY 485p @ 0.25 from 0.17 avg.
i had written them off when SPY rallied above 488
and left them in the wind
while focused on NFLX, AMD, etc...
noticed they were suddenly green again
with theta bleeding out rapidly in the final hour.
so closed them to be safe.
looks like SPY will continue lower
and the 485p bid is already 0.27.
but i feel lucky to have them green again
so locking in the unexpected win
while it lasts.
wouldn't surprise me to see a bot rally
in the final half hour
as we've seen many days the past couple months.
looks like SPY got a gut punch @ 1pm ET.
but UVXY also had a steep 1min red candle at the same time.
very odd to see UVXY and SPY moving in unison,
as they have been since 10am.
UVXY usually wins that dance.
but seems buy bots have been in control this week,
so no way to know what will happen
until it does.
and now SPY and UVXY both took a 3-min plunge together
because that makes sense. 🤦♂️
never can tell with bees...
SPY now rallying upward
along with UVXY.
suggest SPY 30-day options traders
think SPY will retrace next month
while the present day bots still want higher?
SPY might still retrace,
maybe even gap fill.
but unclear that will happen today.
never can tell with bees...
UVXY still rallying upward since 10am ET.
but SPY doesn't seem to care yet.
time will tell...
spartex, def make sense that
lower interest rates on corp debt
would favor small cap growth.
but tax cuts that induce large cap market rallies
might keep the fomc hawkish (ie: high fed rates)?
also makes sense that
fewer sec regulations would reduce costs and paperwork
for small caps with lower cash flow and accounting resources
than large caps.
honestly, i think market moves
are mostly irrational bot manip
the past couple decades.
but interest rates and sec fees
def bigger impacts to bottomline 10Qs for smaller companies
than for larger ones.
DXY in bull flag
with UVXY shifting bullish,
and NVDA, AAPL, MSFT all rolling over.
time will tell.
i got distracted by elder care
and missed the rally back up.
should have set a stop while up 50% on the puts. 🤦♂️
does seem NVDA, AAPL, MSFT have found some R on the rally,
but there was some decent volume behind the rally back up from LOD.
going to wait to see what happens over next 10-15 min,
but if SPY doesn't roll over soon,
will salvage puts for a loss.
live to trade another day.
and remember to set stops
when pulled away from console while up... 🤦♂️
DXY rallying, too.
re: gap up on nflx,
NFLX earnings actually down since last qtr
and missed consensus estimate.
probably rallying on increased membership
and estimates of higher earnings in march.
or simply bot manip hopium?
which, of course, is all any ticker needs these days
to rally 20% overnight... 🤦♂️
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nflx/earnings
Fiscal Quarter End Date Reported Earnings Per Share* Consensus EPS* Forecast % Surprise
Dec 2023 1/23/2024 2.11 2.20 -4.09
Sep 2023 10/18/2023 3.73 3.46 7.8
Jun 2023 7/19/2023 3.29 2.83 16.25
Mar 2023 4/18/2023 2.88 2.83 1.77
spartex, that makes sense to me.
trump gave corps, elite, and himself a 25% tax cut
as the expense of the national debt
which spiked upward as a result.
no doubt he'll do it again if reelected,
which would be bullish for stocks
despite being precarious for the stability of usa economy.
interesting re: small cap vs large cap impact.
do you have a link to an article on the regulations
that small caps now face vs large caps?
TT, thanks for the explanation!
do you have a link on how the white zone calculated?
fwiw, SPY 485p @ 0.20
AAPL, MSFT, etc... struggling along with SPY at the open.
looks like NFLX found temp R @ 557 for now.
with UVXY rallying upward.
fwiw, SPY tagged new ATH (485.3+) in AH.
AH doesn't count for official stats
but it does suggest we might see a gap up tmrw to new ATHs.
because they can...
or it might just be a headfake to sell calls,
before a rug-pull tmrw.
because they can...
time will tell.
i'm guessing the "white zone" is a resistance region?
looks like SPY broke upward through it?
looks like ~483 is still temp S for now
and ~484.25 is temp R.
re: UVXY, it's been a bit random, often sideways lately.
given VIX is calculated from 30-day SPY options,
maybe simply that 30-day traders are uncertain about where SPY will go,
esp amid ongoing risk of ww3 any random grim day?
and that uncertainty favors more strangle/straddle plays
than hedges against equity positions?
Tootall7,
S == support
R == resistance
in the interest of less typing...
looks like today was a consolidation day,
mostly in the 483-484 range.
i'm honestly a bit surprised that S is now 483.
i expect 480 (prior ATH) to be S now,
but the fact that buyers hit the ask at 483 all day
suggests we could go higher this week.
time will tell...
re: 10 bagger / 100 bagger,
fwiw, my risk/reward speculation is based on
MIKP achieving $25m-$250m market cap,
mapping to roughly 0.01-0.10 share price at current OS,
if mark could produce 2-3 decent films
from the stable of IPs he has optioned.
by comparison, lionsgate (LGF.B) has a market cap of $2.4b
after decades of successful film production.
so i def grok the potential,
but i do think speculating about billions in revenues from MIKP films
is wishful thinking.
re: slave to your biases
if you've been following MIKP for a decade+
then you have seen a long history of failure with prior IPs and projects,
along with the 2011 100:1 RS that blew out all prior common shareholders.
i grok that you think things are different now.
i was hopeful, myself, last summer until the RS was announced.
and, as before, i do grok your perception
that mark might not dilute after the RS.
fwiw, that simply seems naive to me, given what we've seen before,
including mark promising no RS and no toxic debt last summer,
and yet now we have both.
you are quick to scoff at other people's biases
based on their lived experience.
are you honest with yourself about your own biases,
based on rosy projections and the assumption that mark has changed his stripes since 2011,
despite mark already breaking promises he made just a few months ago?
as ever, i hope this works out for you,
as that will mean it works out for the rest of us, too.
but i do feel you are shrugging off risks
that may come back to bite you soon.
time will tell...
re: Vampirella alone could be worth a $billion
$1b films are possible these days,
but typically for blockbusters with 9-figure budgets.
there are dozens of _vampy_ characters optioned,
so maybe a set of profitable films over a couple decades
could achieve that projection.
but i hope you're not betting your risk/reward speculation
on _vampy_ films returning 10-figure net returns to MIKP?
regardless, i def agree on the potential here.
and not just _vampy_.
_wish_ is also a very popular IP.
which is why i'm still here,
and didn't cash out last summer in the 0008-0010 range.
but, as usual, you are assuming that,
if mark does succeed with film production,
current shareholders will share in mark's success.
unless you made a deal with mark to buy preferred shares,
i still see the RS and likely follow-on dilution as a major risk
to us current common shareholders.
and the imminent 25% dilution of MIKP common stock on feb 8th
when neville likely converts the note into 600m shares
and may dump most of them on the market over the following weeks,
the opposite of "peanuts."
i know you don't share my view,
so we can agree to disagree.
just speaking my perspective for folks lurking here
who might not remember the 2011 100:1 RS here
that blew our prior shareholder value.
sadly, wouldn't surprise me
if mark blew us out again.
time will tell, as it always does...
484 retest now.
moment of truth for intraday calls...
edit: 484 R broken quickly,
looks like an EOD bot rally may rescue our calls.
time will tell...
got lotto 485c @ 0.08
for possible EOD bot rally,
on bounce from the dip to new LOD.
time will tell...
fwiw, i'm thinking puts now,
based on SPY & UVXY 5min.
but wary of EOD bot rally...
re: And a $50k note is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.
fwiw, that is not a true statement.
doing the math:
the $50k note is actually $60k due on feb 8th,
due to 20% interest.
and the conversion rate in the contract is 0.0001,
not whatever the current share price is on feb 8th.
$60k / 0.0001 == 600m shares.
current pre-RS OS is 2382m shares.
so 600m shares is ~25% of the current OS.
which is, by definition, not peanuts.
as before, i don't expect you to see this differently.
you've sold yourself a bill of goods here.
i'm just aiming to present a balance risk/reward perspective
especially for new folks lurking here.
to point, i encourage everyone to read the filings
and do the math on aspects like toxic financing
before shrugging them off as irrelevant.
[[ FOR VALUE RECEIVED, MIKE THE PIKE PRODUCTIONS, INC., a Wyoming corporation (hereinafter called the “Borrower” or “Company”), hereby promises to pay to the order of John Neville (the “Holder”) the sum of US$50,000.00, together with any interest as set forth herein, on the earlier of the first closing in the contemplated Regulation A offering or Six (6) months following the issuance date of the Note (the ‘Period”), whichever occurs first (the “Maturity Date”), and to pay interest on the unpaid principal balance hereof at the rate of twenty percent (20%) (the “Interest Rate”) for the Period , whether at maturity or upon acceleration or by prepayment or otherwise.
This Note may not be prepaid in whole or in part except as set forth herein. All payments due hereunder (to the extent not converted into shares of common stock, each having a $0.0001 par value (the “Common Stock”) in accordance with the terms hereof) shall be made in lawful money of the United States of America. ]]
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1550222/000118518523000902/ex_563523.htm
fwiw, SPY 485c @ 0.32
as SPY 5min shifts bullish
and UVXY decline steepens downward
fwiw, close SPY 482p @ 0.28 from 0.23.
looks like SPY finding some S
and might rally into lunch.
fwiw, SPY 482p @ 0.23.
SPY was in sloppy bull flag
with UVXY sagging.
but all the SPY heavyweight components tanking, except AAPL.
AMD, NVDA, SMCI puts all would have paid off since the open.
entered puts as SPY started sagging.
time will tell...
fwiw, SMCI still churning higher.
the 380c bid now 46.00 from 0.15.
aka: 306x HOD/LOD
aka: $5k ante at open would be worth $1.5m now.
because they can...