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Amj23: I take it you are mean that ERHC is "Getting away with murder by keeping their mouth shut".
Is it the realization that that may be going on with the company we own stock in which makes so many so uncomfortable with what emdyal points out?
I think it would be an unfortunate breach of the free speech of the board for this new poster to get run off, sends an unpleasent message to readers out there.
It would seem to me this micro-democracy needs to be allowed to grow a little robustness.
Magicatlast: Agree emailing and complaining ERHC does not affect drilling plans and progress.
The real deal is having some idea of what is going on and hence investors who may not be in the oilpatch having confidence to buy a position in ERHE. While SP languishes, drifste down in absence of any news of any kind. If ERHC refused to provicde even that despite shareholders' prompting, will certainly be a telling event.
Even these few of us in the patch have no idea whether they WB et al doing anything right or not. For all we can tell, Brandhuber just shepherded along the agreements into PSC signings, all based on work done before his watch, maybe piddling away unknown amounts to unknowns like Feltang for we know not what. No evidence to claim a great job or a lousy job. Might be good, might be smelly. We do not know.
Other posters today commented on spending for a top PR firm and nothing. Not even "we cannot talk to you about this or that, but we are doing this and this and our plans are such and such", i.e. normal, reasonable explanations that need not break business confidentiality.
Emeka Offor's influence in this regard remains strong. Buyin could benefit him and us.
IMHO So back to watching grass grow for another year and a half.
Niko: One of the things about being a public company IS dealing with shareholders. It is pure supposition that they are "working their arses off" doing anything worthwhile at all: NO evidence for stockholders to believe this.
WB et al are not fulfilling their obligations of reporting to stochholders.
You want to sit back?
Tryot: You are right, it is bull. ERHC/WB controls when to hold the annual shareholders meeting, can perfectly well set it whenever they want, regardless of warrants, etc. But fact is CHOOSING to be vague.
Same way, plenty to talk about - or just saying what can talk about and what not. ERHC/WB control that. Even have proper p.r. talent on contract to get it done right. But fact is again CHOOSING to continue the silence.
IMO the silence in normal ERHC operation, hence "quiet time for a pending deal" is illusory. Perhaps other posters have serious clues to support their theories and prove me wrong on this - hope they could.
I have to believe the PR firm and ERHC both read this board - easy way to gauge the temperature of shareholders!
Agree tryot, is time to question ERHC, chagne their impression that shareholders are simple passive idiots.
AMJ23: I thought it was positive signal too. When senior folks that would know deflect like that, and others ask unusual questions of suppliers and partners dance around what they say on OBO-1, it adds up, IMHO.
No links to post to satisfy the skeptics, but when added to posters' claims of seeing the logs and so one, the little clues are the reason I go back to watching the grass grow (or maybe watching other more interesting stocks instead) for another year and a half.
The patience of Buffett comes to mind.
Spec29: Four months ago I spoke to CVX in US about JDZ, was no comment and referred to the Lagos office, i.e. corroborates what you report, concerted really tight hole!
Stocks2rise: LOL . . .With the stock price going to hell and management struck dumb by divine action from Washington, SP sure is in need of prayers to awake it from the dead!!!!!!
If take all this too seriously right now . . . well . . . no wonder posters attracted here have handles like crazyasallgetout.
Yes, stocks2rise, quiet times. Frankly I find the new field and stream thread entertaining.
Then this being an African stock, rather than TA some advocate we might try voodoo. Try googling voodoo to learn more, quite interesting.
Maybe more successful than TA or board debate in forecasting ERHE SP?
lbm1: Seems to me that Oilman57, Strassenheim and some others - are struggling to reflect to the board the reality of the deepwater drilling market these days. Would guess that Gomes also wants to believe the timeline he has heard from operators.
Would also guess in a couple of years there will be another similar board debate about development plans and why they cannot be right away and why sanction (sometimes calle FID in Nigeria) takes some time.
In my view it is not worth the time arguing it here - maybe ERHC and Addax and Sinopec need to hire board posters to rustle up a rig if they know better.
We will just have to be patient for a some more time.
Understand relevance of my board handle?
Slow today. But the future of ERHE and its longs was commented on more than four centuries ago . . .
TODAY:
"Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps on this petty pace until the last syllable of recorded time."
TIMING THE BUY:
"There is a tide in the affairs of men that taken at the flood leads on to fame and fortune."
Would suggest this alternate to reading board riddles - the guy who wrote these words just as worthwhile, and many would say more entertaining.
Crazy: of course, right, and don't forget all the extra time to hook up OBO 1-75 to the new production facility they invented in STP all for revenues to start next week:-
F floating
C crude
P production
A annulus
Oh Yeah, oh wise sage.
And duly elected Entertainer of the Year and Keeper of the Dream by all the faithful ERHE disciples.
Thee be on the true topics, overcoming the dire hazards of deletion . . . .
And purveyor of LOL raised to the nth power.
Dadd: The ABB post was a good practical oilfield example of the consequences for getting caught in FCPA stuff in Nigeria, illuminating and very pertinent to ERHE, IMO.
Hence must disagree with your judgement on that one.
In fact would encourage other posters to cite examples for giving some idea of a risk comparison with the ERHE situation.
No way can Scarabeo 3 be used in block 2, its spec sheet says 450 m max w.d.
Positive news for Addax stockholders, meaningless for JDZ and ERHE.
Scarabeo 3 is good for up to 450 meters water depth while JDZ needs 2,000+ meters capability, i.e. good news for AXC stockholders but NOT for ERHE stockholers.
DB: You're on the right track, support your view. The kind of thoughtful commonsense the board benefits from, needs.
Manti: Thank you. This simple country boy from Texas was not aware of all that.
Zebra33: LOL, good one, hope Walter Brandhuber is reading this board this morning!
Mark: This board has great regard for your long professional communciation with JDA, the rapport you have carefully built and your willingness to report back to us all. And many thanks from this investor!
It thus remains to the greater good that you continue as the "board's ambassador to JDA" and we not risk the effects of a maestro of diplomacy plunging in.
IMO the board works with collaboration.
Ajaxxx 99: With all the conjecture here and the risks on ERHE, and TA and other theories, your 'riverboat gambler' moniker is pretty good!
How about the national anthem for this board being "The Gambler" by Kenny Rogers, "Gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em".
Stay the Course
Art: Many thanks for clarification, very fair comment, Walldog is right.
ERHE perhaps unique in the quality and value of rights being captured in a pure public play like this?
Different from AFR and EEL that demonstrate a strategy of acquiring producing and prospective properties.
Stay the Course
Balance: What is the relevance of Vanco to the current discussion? Very skilled negotiator of acreage, savvy wildcatter and promoter extraordinaire, but not to my knowledge a deepwater operator.
How did Gene's name come into all this?
Stay the Course, onwards through the fog
Umbra: Certainly such huge proven reserves is something all of us on this board would like to see in 3 years, and the chatter on this board plus little clues seen in the oilpatch here, would indeed indicate there might be more down there than CVX says.
But "Sataniya times two" is tough to believe. Nevertheless would guess it is unlikely just to be a total figment of the imagination for you to write this. Your story of betting your retirement on ERHE would be consistent. All arouses curiosity on the board.
What I really have trouble with is how posters like Oliphant, Angry Asian and you tease with potentially credible tid bits like this, implying insider knowledge.
In my Houston frame of reference if one works on serious strategy stuff for an oil company or a think tank like Baker Institute for Public Policy, one does not put out cutely worded gossip on public boards, since (1) it may be in direct contravention of carefully worded Confidentiality Agreements that foresee such actions, (2) it is readily discoverable,(3) shows basic disloyalty and unprofessionalism, and (4) it is a sure route to professional ostracising.
Heck, the average oilfield service hand knows when to keep quiet!
Umbra, I note your carefully worded posts and would welcome your response. I was amused in that later post where you acknowledged that BWTFDIK applied to you too.
Stay the Course
Balance: Please bear in mind that CVX, XOM and APC each have multiple deepwater rigs already on long term contracts, hence can re-prioritize and drill a well in JDZ if that becomes necessary. Hence no surprise they drilled a year after PSC and it has been credible that they shift plans around to drill additional wells or sidetracks (altho we don't really know if that happened as conjectured here) But even these three have dilemmas these days.
Tougher for AXC, SNP et al, as they have to contract in today's market, get into a deepwater game new to them and beyond that figures out how to execute on a production plan in 5,000-7,000 ft. water depths.
If the reserves are as we believe SNP might elect to bring in one of the first three as partner - or some other comparable.
IMO the first three are well positioned to move fast in the ultra deep if the incentive is there, witness CVX deliberating on Jack in GOM currently.
Different theme: BB, must say I do appreciate your efforts in getting a moderate debate going here (pun deliberate). And we saw a week ago the good collaboration again emerging from Rocky finding the court documents for us all.
Stay the Course, we live in intersting times
Balance: Some other poster did a real good job several weeks ago about all that has to happen now the PSCs are signed, the time and trouble.
Getting these JOAs done and funding in place with a collection of partners as in Blocks 2-4 takes some doing and then agreeing who really is operator and contracting a deepwater rig in today's hot market all has to happen to get to the stage of a well that tests what we have, and may or may not be commercial despite better seismic assessment these days. Regardless of chatter re SNP.
So I opine we are 1-2 years from evidence of probable reserves. JMHO (Just My Houston Opinion), no exhaustive search of market but industry news and informal oil co. comments I hear, seen a lot before but not these rig rates . . . Opining to my satisfaction - but reach your own conclusions as you see fit!
IMHO, relax, our oil is not leaking out anywhere.
JDUBS: That famous poem of Kupling is called "IF".
Coincidentally so very relevant to the many conjectures here, pyramided on cryptic comments, fragments of fact and hints on this board.
Remember $10 oil in 1998? If it were $25 today would have similar effect, conceivable between now and first oil in today's volatile world. We are 5-6 years from production, and 1-2 years from having evidence of probable reserves.
ERHE is a speculation, a good one in my considered oilpatch view, and I do admire BB's earneat careful construct earlier today, but wow, so many IFs.
Stay the Course, IF . . . .
Bobwill9: Did that have had Umbra as your co-star's underSTUDy . . .
Dane: This profound discussion sure beats the acrimonious BS of recent weeks!!!
I wonder how and when Umbra will come out of the shadows after all this oilpatch harrassment!!!
Bobwill8: Congratulations! Have not heard "male chauvinist pig" for some years.
In fact five years ago I had business with a computer guy with "MCP" on his necktie, and joked to him about wearing a Male Chauvinst Pig tie. He did not understand and said MCP stood for "Microsoft Certified Professional". MCP is therefore old.
So you must take "Male Chauvinist Pig" as a sign of mature respect.
Another shrew-ed clue?
The character of umbra's posts seemed to change from 2-3 mos. ago to the last month, maybe changed from male to female authors under same handle, or it's an oilpatch morphadite (bet the Brit wont't know what that is), or fresh from a sex change procedure.
Obviuously a slow day today.
Stay the Course - if you don't take umbrage from posts
Rambus: Excellent story about the dramatic action now in deepwater drilling and production.
Challenges ahead are big too:-
http://www.eandpnet.com/articles/newsAndComments/3873.htm
Stay the Course - if you can afford current day rates
Magic: You have done the board a service in realistically spelling out what has to happen just to arrive at the first well for each "ERHE Block".
1. After that there is the process of deciding on the field development plan and lining up the production solution which takes additional and longer time.
2. This morning a supermajor told me how they had just drilled two exploratory wells in the ultra deep in Gulf of Mexico and it costs roughly a million dollars a day for the complete spread (rig, helicopters, boats, fuel etc etc).
3. So ERHE blocks in similar water depths will be much more expensive than projections a year ago. May be delays in finding deepwater rigs in today's market. Anadarko may be better placed with existing suitable rig commitments that Addax and Sinopec with less similar commitments. Their lesser deepwater experience is a challenge.
4. All the more need therefore for ERHE management to come out and outline progress it sees ahead.
5. Absent that, SP may IMHO languish as we wait on well results to trigger SP growth like we all believe will one day happen.
Stay the Course - if you have a LOT of patience
Umbra: Wise counsel indeed to JDUBS, right on target.
Been thinking of writing along such lines but you understand the game, said it better.
Stay the Course
jhermit: Great post.
No real vision and no plan that I can see from ERHE. Maybe Brandhuber the leader could change it.
No wonder so intense speculation on this board.
Stay the Course
Nightdaytrader: The CNPC and Sinopoec already send groups of their brightest and best to University of Houston for project management and other training. We and one or two other contractor companies in Houston invite them for a half day briefing on what we do, will be seeing the third group of 25 in last 12 mos.
But it is laborious and expensive after 9/11 for them to get visas and travel here - so the Beijing UofH idea is no surprise.
They soak up everthing they can.
Stay the Course
Casing I believe, at least the 2nd well there. All supposed to be tight but many reports around and am NOT an insider.
Kownski: The current DST for CVX at Jack in ultra deep waters of GOM (roughly comparable to JDZ)is done with a barge for storing the oil because the drillship similar to DWD does not have the produced fluids capacity. Also may need to run DSTs for various times (days). So the "30 day test" is not so daft.
Stay the Course
It is a positive signal to this stockholder that in the last week Mr. B actually listens and talks of responding to stockholders. Here is a wish list for steps to build on that trend, just in case anyone at ERHE reads this board:-
1. Identify and contact oil industry analysts US wide to start a dialog on ERHE (not too difficult to do);
2. Commission a valuation study by an independent respected petroleum industry consultants (many good ones in Houston that regularly do this for public companies) to assess the value of ERHE's positions on prospects (possible, probable reserves etc);
3. Initiate the road show to debate study per 2. plus discuss drilling plans on blocks with ERHE interests, timing etc., future fundamental directions for company;
4. Draw on the great talents present on this board in the form of a "stockholders advisory board" to effectively focus on what can really get the disgruntled stockholders on the ERHE side, get some enthusiasm going. Plus serving as active protagonists supporting the ERHE team that is obviously stretched very thin and needs ideas.
OK, we can lament and debate the current situation, how about a debate on a start to help Mr. B?
What has happened to the oilpatch attitude of "do something, git after it 'n' quit whining" ?
Better ideas?
Any of you out there willing to join up per 4.?
Stay the Course
C'mon Dane, cut them some slack.
Of course it is not good enough by our standards - ERHE behaves small African outfit learning their way.
JDUBs' evidence shows at least that they are now headed in the right direction on communicating with us stockholders.
Stay the Course
Dane: LOL The epic movie of the ERHC story will need your talents as script writer.
Stay the Course - at least to see the movie