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Last time, I said that we were in the positive part of the seasonal cycle and it wouldn't take much to trigger a Buy. Consider the Buy triggered. We also noted the accumulated shorts in the SH right now was fuel for more rally. Well, we can add a big Bearish shift among Nasdaq advisors now too. Those folks are heavily short. Seriously, there's probably very little risk in here. We should take every opportunity to buy. Fortunately, we're getting one as the MACD cross over is a pretty reliable Sell signal short term. We also have an Options Oscillator sell. Both ought to bring selling and that selling ought to be just enough to keep Bulls out and Bears in. I keep hearing all this bad news. None of it is surprising, though. Also, when NPR starts talking about how bad the economy is, it's probably about time to start buying again. Pick your spot. Maybe keep a bit of powder dry in case we get a surprise sell off.
Looks like you missed that call. lol
Last week, I said that with the hedging in the ETF's actually accelerated and that the relative VIX was getting up there again even as NAAIM medial exposure dropped to levels last seen at the '09 lows. I was pretty sure that we were headed lower, but that we had a lot of good sentiment numbers falling into place. I was just looking for the set up to start picking a bottom. We fell hard on Monday and reversed. The Relative VIX shot above 2.05, for a buy and that may have been enough for a low. As we rallied on Tuesday through Thursday, we saw rising shorting in the SH and plenty of put buying. It is possible that we won't get all the good bottom spotters to set up a buyable low. In fact, we must allow that the low may be in. It happens that way, sometimes. We are now in the positive part of the seasonal cycle and it won't take much at all to trigger a Buy. With the accumulated shorts in the SH Right now, and with rates very low. There's fuel. There's also no place to put cash in order to beat inflation. No place, that is, except STOCKS. So, IF the perceived risk in equities drops even a bit, we could get a short-squeeze rally like we haven't seen in a long, time. We will be looking for any chance to start accumulating stocks. My call for the week is for a decline on Monday a rally Tuesday, a pullback Wednesday, and then up through Friday. I'm also open to any manner of choppy action on Monday and Tuesday and a rally through Friday.
Last time, I said that "none of the 10-day P/C's really got beared-up". That was in error. The CBOE 10-day P/C did and is actually quite Bullish for the market. I really was and am not confident that the low is in but I'm getting a funny feeling that it is. Looking at the P/C's I'm not seeing anyone embrace the rally. NAAIM also saw Bears get as aggressive as they could, going 200% short. Breadth is turning up. Momentum is positive. The CBOE:SPX turned up too. This may not be a pretty low, but it could also be one of those markets that garners rising Bearishness as it rallies. We've already got record shorts in the SH and other ETF's and neg-corr mutual funds. This is fuel. It's not enough to support this market if we get hit with really bad news, BUT where are the surprises likely to come from? Europe? Only if you've had your head buried under a rock for a year. Real Estate? Ha! I'm thinking that we're more likely to get surprise GOOD news than bad news. I don't think we're going to enter a new era of prosperity but that's not what the market primarily responds to. The market responds to the supply and demand of money. Right now, rates are very low. Shorting is very high. There's no place to put cash in order to beat inflation. No place except STOCKS. So, if the perceived risk in equities drops even a bit, we could get a short-squeeze rally like we haven't seen in a long, time. Be looking for any chance to start accumulating stocks.
Last time, I said that they were still throwing money at the SH. That changed last night but there is still a TON of money short via the SH. I noted that we had not seen the multi-swing action that I was looking for, nor the big equity P/C ratios. None of the 10-day P/C's really got beared-up either. I'm just not confident that the low is in. The thing that really gets me is the message board poll data. I've been doing this for a lot of years and I don't think that this crew has EVER failed to be leaning the right way at a major turn. It's just what they do, but THIS time, the weren't very long. This and the politics strongly suggest that the low we just made is both in-organic and probably not long lasting. I can still be swayed by some volume and perhaps some breadth, but right now, we have neither. We also have a strong sell from our Options Oscillator. A pullback could actually be healthy. Watch for multi-swing action. That will be Bullish if we get it.
The fact that it "looks" like bounce time, may be a problem. It's getting too obvious after the past 2 months of reversals. I'm neither bullish or bearish here, just wary of this volatility and my extreme limitations trading TSP.
Last time, I said that the hedging in the ETF's had amounted to over $1Billion in new money in the SH since 9/1 supporting a big rally. Um, yeah... I'll note that they're still throwing money at the SH. The Relative VIX was over 2.0 and that was a warning of a low, too. I said that I suspected that taking out the lows and officially going into a "Bear Market" would get us the set-up we wanted. Maybe we got that, but I think it happened to fast...as though it was a "save" by the "powers that be". It is not hard to imagine that there are people who do NOT want to have the market fall officially into a Bear. Meanwhile, we have not seen the multi-swing action I was looking for, nor the big equity P/C ratios. We did get a nice reversal stick and that could by itself bring some buying, especially if the folks short via the SH cover up a bit. If we don't the things I was looking for yesterday, I can be swayed by some volume and perhaps some breadth. I really am disappointed by the "Save". I'm thinking that they blew a chance to bottom this market in a more meaningful fashion. We'll see if I'm right and we get another sell off, or if I'm wrong and the technicals turn.
Last week, we said that with the CBOE:SPX negative along with momentum and an Options Oscillator Sell, we had to be Bearish despite being oversold and the massive hedging in the short ETF's. I was thinking that we would have to take out the lows to finish this decline, though I was open to another conclusion. They tried a head fake last week but the Bear continued to play out as we thought it might. This week, the hedging in the ETF's actually accelerated and the relative VIX is getting up there again. NAAIM dropped to levels last seen at the '09 lows (see Charts above). The Fearless Forecasters are very Bearish, but they tend to be right. I'm disturbed at the lack of uniform pessimism in the options and I'm pretty sure that we are headed lower. That said, we've got a lot of good sentiment numbers falling into place and I'm just looking for the set up to start picking a bottom. We need some good bottom spotters and some serious pessimism to show in the options. NOTE: We are now in the positive part of the seasonal cycle. We want to try to pick a low soon. My call for the week is for a decline on Monday a bounce that fails Tuesday, and maybe Wednesday, and then down through Friday.
I don't have a paid subscription to this site any more, so I can't respond via PMs. As far as the Seven Sentinel signals go, I post them here only to track when the signals occur. I no longer follow them due to the severe volatility of this market. Whipsaws come very easy in this environment. However, I do a decent job of reading the technical landscape using those signals, so they do have a lot of value even if we can't follow the signals. I also have access to several professional services to include conservative buy and hold stategies and day trading. That wide range of perspectives has helped me learn a lot over the past few years.
Last time, we said that the CBOE:SPX turned negative, while momentum remained positive. No change there. The Options Oscillator gave a Sell at the close, however. The FL/FS Buy managed to deliver a rally but it was mighty tricky to play. There is still all that hedging in the short ETF's and now NAAIM has dropped to 0% median exposure (see Charts above). The data suggests that we have considerable risk near term even as we're getting into the zone of a better low. I'm not about to go out and buy willy-nilly, but I'm sure not going to be sanguine about the short side, nor will I ignore good bottom spotters if they go off. Seasonal traders should be ready to buy any turn. For now, we're Bearish, looking to pick a low soon.
Be sure to check out my blog on TSPTalk. I provide much more market commentary over there.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/entry.php?1471-Front-Running-the-Next-Rally
Welcome to the board ccbadc.
Last time, we said that the CBOE:SPX was positive along with momentum, which is Bullish. Today, the CBOE:SPX turned negative, while momentum remains positive. The Options Oscillator Buy is still in force and the rest of the options are generally OK, too. We now have a FL/FS Buy, too. With all that hedging in the short ETF's we have to think that the powers that be will bounce this market at every chance. The market was acting so much like a Bear yesterday, but we just can't forget that there are actually folks short ($650MM in new money over the past month in the SH alone). Many will cover at every excuse as most are underwater. It's still a Bear and we must be careful, but chop seems to be likely.
Last time, we said that the CBOE:SPX was positive along with momentum, which is Bullish. And we were up, too. Surprisingly, we gave much of it back, though. The Options Oscillator Buy is joined by a repeat Buy. That's Bullish too and we'll likely get some strength but it may not be that much. We have a FL/FS 2X Sell and since we're a bit overdone, this may bring a bit of selling. The problem for the Bears is that the hedging remains robust in the short ETF's--they haven't covered any shorts yet. This means that there is further fuel for more rally. If nobody gets bullish as we rally, this thing can keep going a long time. I'm mindful of the Bear but we could be seeing what it takes to end it. MAYBE.
Last time, we said that the CBOE:SPX was negative along with momentum which was Bearish. Well, today, both are positive, which is Bullish. Options Oscillator Sell looks like a bust, if you don't count the nice intra-day moves that were plainly profitable. We now have an Options Oscillator Buy. That's Bullish too. On the other hand, we're quickly getting overdone on the upside and we have a FL/FS 2X Sell. This may bring a bit of selling. The problem is that the hedging remains robust in the short ETF's and until those guys cover up a bunch, we're probably headed higher. I don't THINK that the low is in, but then again, I could be wrong. If nobody gets bullish as we rally, this thing can keep going a long time.
Last week, we said that while Investor's Intel finally got into Buy territory, it wasn't enough. What was really getting to us was the new issuance of Bearish ETF's, implying that a lot of sophisticated money was hedging. While we were still in a Bear, such positivity couldn't be ignored. Of course, we noted that once everything turns up and it's obvious, then it's about time for a sell off. I explicitly stated that we were still in a Bear market and that I expected any rally to fail. I was looking for one last big down leg to get started shortly and then we could look for the ultimate low and a new rally. Friday, I said that NAAIM wasn't any more Bearish and neither was Investors Intel, but TSP was very Beared up and so was the Relative VIX. We figured that a bounce was likely but that the low was not likely to be in. The CBOE:SPX was and is negative along with momentum and we have an Options Oscillator Sell. That's Bearish. We're getting oversold, however, and the hedging continues unabated in the short ETF's. I'm thinking that we will have to take out the lows to finish this decline but that is not written in stone. I'll be looking for the set up to start picking a bottom. I'd like to see the Relative VIX spike again. My call for the week is for a rally on Monday that fails, down into or through Wednesday or Thursday, and then a turn and rally through Friday.
Last time, I said that I wanted to see a completed pattern or for some of our better bottom-spotters to go off before we started Buying. It wasn't clear that we were getting the rising Bearishness we'd hoped for and it still isn't. NAIM isn't any more Bearish and neither is Investors Intel. On the other hand, TSP is very Beared up and the relative VIX is getting up there again too. Short-term, the FL/FS Buy is still in force. A bounce is likely but the low is not likely to be in. The CBOE:SPX is negative along with momentum and that's Bearish. I'm thinking that we will have to take out the lows to finish this decline. I'll be looking for the set up to start picking a bottom.
Last time, I said that if the market were to sells off hard on news, I'd inclined to buy it because with that much hedging, the market WILL rally sooner or later. That's still on my mind. I do want to see a completed pattern or for some of our better bottom-spotters to go off. We are getting the hoped for decline but it's not clear that we're getting the rising Bearishness. Short-term, however, the FL/FS is flashing a nice Buy signal. I'm actually hoping that they bounce it, because if they don't, we could crash. I'm going to be taking a look at our better bottoms spotters. I'm open to buying if we get a Buy or two from them or if we take out the lows. Momentum is negative. The CBOE:SPX is flashing a Sell. That's Bearish.
Last time, I said that I was still of the belief that the rally would fail. It looked like I was going to be wrong but then late we sold down. I'm still pretty Bearish in here, but there is still a TON of hedging going on. It is going to fuel one heck of a rip-roaring rally soon. In fact, if this market sells off hard on news, I'm inclined to just buy it because with that much hedging, the market WILL rally sooner or later. Now, this doesn't mean that we can just buy, but if they take enough risk out of it, the market becomes rather attractive, Bear or no. I'm Bearish, but I'm absolutely not shorting for more than day trades here, as I don't think it's worth the risk and hassle. The Cumulative A/D volume is negative and confirmed and now Summation is negative. Cross your fingers and hope for a decline with rising Bearishness.
Last time, we said that the new issuance of Bearish ETF's was Bullish and with nearly everything else turning up, we had to be open to an end of the Bear. That said, I was not calling that and was of the belief that the rally would fail. This is still our view but we are still dealing with a TON of hedging. This is going to make it hard for the market to fall under it's own weight, that's for sure. It's also going to make it rally every time it trades down, if there's any bit of good news. Basically, there are likely to be lots of surprises to the down side, but it's going to be very tough for the bears to trade. I'm absolutely not shorting for more than day trades here, as I don't think it's worth the risk and hassle, even though I can easily envision another 10% down from here. The Cumulative A/D volume is negative and quickly turned down yesterday. That is one indicator that is rather sensitive to the nature of real buying and selling. Interesting that it's the lone hold-out. I think that we'll have to be slaves to the news this week. Either side is likely to dominate.
Last week, we said that we could and would rally and some of those rallies would be huge, but because we were in a Bear Market, others would fail miserably. I said that when we got some real fear going, we could start probing for a huge Bear market rally or a start of another Bull market. I was really looking for some serious weakness to generate the fear. Aside from Monday's whacking, such was not to be. The sentiment, however, was interesting. We saw Investor's Intel finally get into Buy territory and that's good. But that's not enough. What really got us was the new issuance of Bearish ETF's. This means that fairly sophisticated money is hedging. A lot. As the market is rallying. I HATE this but it's Bullish. The weekly trend has turned up and all but the Cumulative A/D volume is positive. Sure, we're still in a Bear, but such positivity can't be ignored. Of course, once everything turns up and it's obvious, then it's about time for a sell off. I want to be clear here: I think we're still in a Bear market and will fail. Alas, I am not the only one. Therefore, I'm prepared to start buying if we move out of Bear Market status. I won't like it, but I also don't need to over commit. My preferred scenario, however, is for one last big down leg to get started next week or perhaps soon after. Then the ultimate low and a new rally. My low confidence call for the week is for a rally on Monday into or through Tuesday, a decline starting on Wednesday picks up momentum through Friday.
Last time, I said that thanks to the TON of hedging that was going on in the ETF's, and the much awaited buy from Investors Intelligence, plus the IT Buy from NAAIM, we had to accept that it was possible that the low was already be in place. Sometimes, the sentiment set up is late to the party. I'll add that strength today will turn the weekly positive and pretty well confirm the up trend and the turn. That will of course be a buy and if this is a Bear Market, we sell our Buys. That makes it a bit tricky. If you think that the low is in, you have to buy any pullback in here, I think. For my work, we're still in a Bear market, but our best stuff has turned up, suggesting that we could be done. Of course, my read of the chart implies one more leg down, below the lows. I could be wrong about that, of course, but that's the way it looks. We have a good set up for a low. So it's either in, or it's coming soon.
Last time, I said that while we had a FL/FS 2X Sell and a strong Options Oscillator Sell implying a good chance of lower prices, the good news is that there was a TON of hedging going on, even on the rally. And it is continuing. Better yet, II has finally flashed a Buy. AAII is already there. To me, this means that the low may already be in place. I'm not saying that it is, but I have to accept the possibility. That said, we know that in a Bear Market (and we ARE in a Bear Market) we should "buy our Sells, and sell our Buys". If the daily trend turns up obviously, I have to think it's a fade. We don't have the type of set up that brings a rip-roaring barn-burner of a rally, but the hedging and rising Bearishness on the rally is a good sign and could keep this bounce going for a long time. If we get a good bottom set up, I will start probing for a low.
My guess is that it is probably a longer term metric, which doesn't have much utility in shorter time frames. Thanks for the heads up though. ;o)
Last time, I said that I didn't think we could hold strength, and we didn't for a time but we still managed to close up. That's a sign of strength and some things turned up, like Summation. The FL/FS 2X Sell is still in force and now we have a strong Options Oscillator Sell. Both mean that we've got a very good chance of lower prices today. The good news is that there is a TON of hedging going on, even on that rally. This could set up a nice low here shortly. I don't see any thing that changes or will change the fundamental picture in the near term, so there's a pretty good likelihood that we'll get more selling but the way that the Bearishness is rising, we're going to get some rallies if not a good low. If we get that set up, I will start probing for a low.
I hear this from time to time that insiders are either selling or buying, but I've never known this to be a reliable metric of market direction. Not saying it can't be useful, but I have no basis or context to trust it.
Last time, I said that I was looking for a rally on Monday and if nothing bad happened overnight, we'd bounce on Monday. Well, things weren't good, but somehow the market did bounce. We probably have a bit more to go, which fits into our prediction for the week. I don't think we can hold strength, however. The $-weighted options are mixed and the FL/FS is Bearish. The good news is that there is a TON of hedging going on and that could set up a nice low here shortly. I'd love to get folks really scared on a shot down that takes out the lows. I really just want to see all the measures show some real Bearishness even if they back off of it a little. If we get that set up, I will start probing for a low. We have plenty of dry powder.
Last week, we said that I figured that if the Bear were really over, then I'd have another opportunity to get long, and if not, well, the surprises would be on the down side. They have been. We also said that the key would likely be Investors Intelligence's sentiment. I'm still of that view, and we very nearly got that measure down into Buy territory. The $-weighted options are Bullish and so are Options Oscillator and VIX. Chances are, if nothing bad happens tonight, we'll get a bounce. After that, I'm less sanguine about the market. We're in a Bear market. That's all there is to it. We can and will rally and some of those rallies will be huge. Others will fail miserably. When we get some real fear going, we can start probing for a huge Bear market rally or a start of another Bull market. Until then, we want to be pretty careful. My low confidence call for the week is for a rally on Monday, a decline on Tuesday, into a low on Wednesday and a rally on Thursday and Friday. No bets on the importance of any low we might make.
Last time, we said that the Options Oscillator Sell was still in force, and that momentum was still negative. The SPX:CBOE was still negative. I was hoping to get another down draft and just a bit more Bearishness from II. Well, we got more weakness but NOT more pessimism. In fact, we're looking at some very complacent readings right now, especially from the options data. My read here is that too many folks think that the low is in. I'm pretty sure that we have another leg down coming. What we want to see is lot of put buying or shorting on every little sell off. There's plenty of reason to be Bearish. Technicals are deteriorating again, too.
Last time, we said that we were looking for strength but for it to fail. No strength failing yesterday. At all. There was a lot of buying but I sense it was a bit much. The Options Oscillator Sell is still in force today. Momentum is still negative. The SPX:CBOE is still negative. The good news is that AAII fell into Buy territory and II is just a hair outside of such. This is the type of thing we have been hoping for. If we can get another down draft and just a bit more Bearishness from II, we'll start probing for a low.
Last time, we said that the key to watch was Investor's Intel, because they never got Beared up on the first leg of this decline and I suspected that if/when they do, it would finally mark a low. Regardless, I advised that we should be on high alert for serious pessimism if not panic and that we'd start nibbling long on that. Correcting my low confidence call for the week, I was looking for a decline on Tuesday, a bounce today that fails, a decline on Thursday into a low of some sort on Friday. We got the bounce late yesterday and into today. Now, we see if it fails. Pessimism didn't rise much on the decline and we actually have a Options Oscillator Sell. Momentum is negative. The reversal does not look to be important. The high VIX makes for an opportunity for put writers but they could be in and done by the open today. Exercise Care. This is a Bear market still.
Last week, we said that I thought that we could expect a relief rally, but after that, I was not so sure. I suspected there were too many Bulls too quickly and that the market would head down after the bounce. One thing was clear to me and that was that I had no reason to believe that the Bear was over, though as always, I'd adjust if they were to turn enough back up. Well, they almost turned enough up, but I stuck to my guns. I figured that if the Bear were really over, then I'd have another opportunity to get long, and if not, well, the surprises would be on the down side. After Friday's action, we can see that was correct. Worse, the GLOBEX action is ugly. At this writing we're down almost 30 points. Germany closed down 5%. This is typical Bear Market stuff. That's the bad news. The good news is that we're going to get some serious pessimism going this week and we have plenty of dry powder to take advantage of it. The key to watch, I think, is Investor's Intel. That crew never got Beared up. I suspect that if they do, it will finally mark a low. In any case, be on high alert for serious pessimism if not panic. We'll likely start nibbling long on that. Other than that, keep trades small and with stops. My low confidence call for the week is for decline on Monday, a bounce on Tuesday that fails, a decline on Wednesday into a low of some sort on Thursday and then up Friday. No bets on the importance of any low we might make.
Last time, we said that when the Buy is finally confirmed, it's probably a Sell. I guess the guys thought that the Buy was confirmed! Options are iffy for the market today, as we have the VIX and OEX on a Sells. The FL/FS Buy was spent early and while we got close to a signal it was no cigar. The Options Oscillator was neutral so no help there. TSP was pretty Beared up, and that's a bit of good news, and NAAIM stayed net short. Generally, we're keeping key measures Bearish and if we get a few more Bears in II I might start turning more aggressively Bullish. I suspected that after a flurry of early strength, the market would fade for the first, and I was dead right. I come away just not trusting this market, but I suspect that we have a much better low coming soon. Remember, we're still in a Bear market and a weekly down trend.
Last time, we said that chances were, we'd be up, but I said I wouldn't be surprised by some selling. We were up and we had some selling. About as we figured. More is turning up, but we STILL haven't confirmed the upturn with breadth nor the weekly trend. When the Buy is finally confirmed, it's probably a Sell. Options are mixed today, as we have the VIX on a Sell, but the $-weighted NDX on a Buy. The OEX is just Bearish. The FL/FS Buy is still in effect today. I suspect that after a flurry of early strength, we'll fade for the first, as we have so many other 1st's. I come away just not trusting this market, but if we turn much more back up, we're going to have to get some long exposure.
Last time, we said that Breadth had still not confirmed a Buy and we needed another day to confirm the 21-day breach. Well, still no Breadth Buy but we did confirm the 21-day Buy. The Weekly is still negative. The Sells got us a bit of weakness yesterday, and now we're looking at Buys from the Options Oscillator and the FL/FS Buy. The market is overdone but this is the end of the Month. Chances are, we'll be up, but I'd not be surprised by some selling. The $-weighted P/C's are rather low and the Rut is VERY low at 0.04. One thing we said last night and want to repeat is that if this is a Bear Market, we want to Buy our Sells and Sell our Buys. When the Buy is confirmed, it's probably a Sell.
I agree with him, but I'm getting very tired of the casino atmosphere this market relentlessly portrays. The volatility is too much for our limited options.
In any event, I have two other accounts that are strictly buy and hold. I was buying financials and REITs when the market was plunging earlier this month, so anytime things turn higher I benefit in that area even if I'm on sidelines in TSP. (Actually, I'm in the F fund, which holding its own).
It's just a matter of time before I get another set-up that I like.
My sentiments exactly...
Last time, we said that I thought that we could expect a relief rally now that we know NYC is still there. After that, I wasn't so sure. I suspected that we have too many Bulls too quickly and that they'll take the market down after the bounce. I had said that I had no reason to believe that the Bear was over, but that I'd adjust if they turned enough back up. Well, they broke the 21-day and they broke the hard down trend. That's enough for a buy based upon NAAIM. Breadth has still not given a Buy and we need at least another day to confirm the 21-day breach. The Weekly is still negative. I think it boils down to this. If you think that we are not in a Bear Market any more (and despite our indicators, that may be the case), then you have to be a buyer in here. If you believe we are still in a Bear market, you have to be more careful. The Bulls have Hulbert's advisors at their back and momentum. There's plenty of Bearishness out there, it seems. I'm thinking that it may be overstated given yesterday's action and the fact that the polls are dated. Still, we can only go with what we know. I'm going to look long on weakness, but I'm going to keep positions small because I don't trust this market.
Seven Sentinels buy signal issued after yesterday's blow out rally.
This volatility has made getting positioned in TSP more challenging than ever. I got out of the market on the highs the last time around, but never got a notional buy signal before this ramp job. Sentiment was suggesting a rally, but the charts didn't look so good. Turns out to a be double bottom. At least so far.
I should be getting a confirmed buy signal from the Seven Sentinels today. Whether I follow or it is another matter entirely.
In my other accounts I was still buying this market so I'm never really completely out of equities regardless of the action.
Last week, we said that the would bounce the market on Monday IF they could but due to the Bear market status, I wasn't sure that they could. They sort of did, then rallied it on. I was fairly confident that they would bounce it at the lows and they did. The volatility was something else. I think we can expect a relief rally now that we know NYC is still there. After that, I'm not so sure. I suspect that we have too many Bulls too quickly and that they'll take the market down after the bounce. I'm not at all clear on the overall course. I'm just trying to give the market room to do it's thing. I have no reason to believe that the Bear is over with but I'll adjust if they turn enough back up. My low confidence call for the week is for rally on Monday that fails, a decline on Tuesday and Wednesday and then up thru Friday.