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Mathematical reasons why MOST DayTraders&scalpers fail?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=3585
Excellent thread! There are some really intelligent human beings over at Forex Factory.
But we are better, faster and smarter at IHub ... LOL!
As always Wikipedia comes to the rescue!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LIBOR
I beleive you will find the answers to your questions there.
I just started studying this stuff.
I know for a fact that forward rates are very accurate predictors of where the currency is gonna go. (especially the AUD)
gnite ... gotta get some sleep to wake up for the GBP retail sales.
They do this to protect themselves from the likes of felix and other news traders.
WOW Thanks! What do you think about the BBA Libor rates?
Do you use them to get market sentiment of interest rates?
http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=141&a=627
someone ban this dude please
What pair were you talking about in your original message? Where you are going tp put your trailing stop depends on price action.
If it is GBP/USD then the MPC minutes were released at the time you posted. They always slip you on economic releases. ESPECIALLY the low liquidity GBP.
If you trade GBP/JPY you need a 100 pip stop. Forget about looking at anything less than the 4hr chart. Once you are profiting in the trade put a trailing stop loss to lock in profit. IMO that is the only way to trade this monster.
Don't settle for anything less that a 100 pip profit.
Hey man ... been away from civilisation to study GBP.
I keep on seeing comments like the one below. Can somebody tell me HOW they determine PRICED IN INTEREST RATE HIKES? GBP/USD is at 1.9600 ish and it has 2 future interest rate hikes priced in apparently.
...markets are close to pricing in two further interest rate increases...
I know Mister Lava asked about that a couple of posts ago but I would like to know HOW they determine that. I would love to have that tool in my arsenal.
Welcome to all new members. This place is kicking!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=249437#poststop
Bank of England minutes preview
The Bank of England minutes will be watched closely on Wednesday for further evidence on the bank’s likely policy over the next two months.
There is a strong probability that some members of the nine-member committee voted for a rate increase at the meeting and one key issue is the number of votes cast for an increase. A 5-4 vote for unchanged rates would increase speculation that the bank will tighten policy again in April while a wider margin would swing the odds towards May.
The degree of bank concern over inflationary pressure in the minutes will also be an important consideration for the markets.
To some extent, however, the impact is likely to be lessened by the strong Tuesday inflation data. The bank will need to adopt a very tough stance for markets to price in further rate increases as markets are close to pricing in two further interest rate increases.
Overall, Sterling is unlikely to find further buying support on the minutes given the amount of tightening priced in.
__________________
Analysis by Investica LTD
This is what you want :
http://www.bba.org.uk/bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=141
Greenspan is scaring the wits out of many people the past few days and they are turning to the euro. Also there was a delayed reaction to the swiss rate hike today and USD/CHF went down (EUR/USD up). Also CPI is on tap for tomorrow ... what better way to make money tomorrow? Drive the euro up and then slam it down.
The GBP has not moved much because the dumb money is shorting it according to the COT data.
My 2 cents.
Lawmakers Seize on Taylor's Book to Bash Treasury Over the Yen
By Mark Drajem
March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats say a book by former U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor proves that the Bush administration went along as Japan tried to hold down the value of the yen, hurting American manufacturers.
In ``Global Financial Warriors,'' published in January, Taylor writes that he acquiesced as Japan sold yen to buy dollars in 2002 and 2003 to help the world's second-largest economy pull out of a decade of anemic growth. The action held down the value of the yen, making Japanese products cheaper on world markets.
``I did not object, as Treasury might have in the past, but I repeated our own views about the merits of keeping intervention at a minimum,'' Taylor, who was at the Treasury from 2001 through early 2005, writes.
Lawmakers, picking up on complaints of Detroit-based General Motors Corp. and other automakers, say Taylor's revelation shows how the U.S. allowed Japan's exporters to get an unfair advantage that they say is still being felt. Their complaints may trigger renewed U.S. pressure on Japan to strengthen the yen.
``This administration decided to help Japan, but this is something that directly hurts our auto industry,'' Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, said yesterday, referring to Taylor's book. Not only did Japan weaken its currency, ``But we knew it at the time,'' she said.
Value Held Down
The yen actually increased versus the dollar in 2002 and 2003, though the government's policy held down the rise. Japan's government stopped buying dollars in March of 2004.
Before rallying last week, the yen touched a four-year low of 122.19 to the dollar on Jan. 29 this year. The yen climbed to 115.66 per dollar as of 8:22 a.m. in Tokyo compared with 116.06 in New York yesterday.
GM, Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford Motor Co. and Stuttgart, Germany-based DaimlerChrysler AG say that even at 116 yen to the dollar, Japanese automakers are getting what amounts to an $8,000 subsidy per car.
Taylor, an economics professor at Stanford University, defended the Treasury policy, saying that in 2002 and 2003 the U.S. wanted Japan to turn around persistent deflation and restore growth.
``The purpose of the intervention was to get Japan off the deflationary track, and that has been broadly successful,'' Taylor said in an interview. Since early 2004, ``There has been no intervention by the Japanese'' to weaken the yen, he said.
Paulson Comments
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who traveled to Tokyo this week, rejects claims the yen is being manipulated, and says its value is being set by financial markets.
``The yen is traded in a competitive marketplace, and its value is set there based on underlying fundamentals,'' Paulson said Feb. 10.
The anger among lawmakers -- mostly Michigan Democrats -- about the yen illustrates one way that angst about global competition and the results of the 2006 election are manifesting themselves this year. U.S. manufacturers shed 2.8 million factory jobs in 2001, 2002 and 2003, just the time when Japan acted to keep the yen from rising.
Last year, lawmakers focused their ire primarily on China, saying its currency practices allowed it to run up a record trade surplus with the U.S. Japan is getting added to the mix this year as Democrats representing automakers took over powerful positions in the new Congress.
Levin Plans Hearings
Stabenow earned a spot this year on the Senate Finance Committee, which oversees trade legislation. Yesterday, she introduced legislation that would allow companies to petition for tariffs on imports from countries that keep their currencies depressed, a measure that would target imports from China and Japan, she said.
Spurred by Representative Sander Levin, another Michigan Democrat, the House Ways and Means Committee held a closed-door meeting on currency manipulation in Asia last month.
``Interestingly, in our session, while there was disagreement among the economists as to China, they all agreed as to the weakness of the Japanese currency,'' Levin said in a speech this week.
Levin, who also referred to Taylor's book, is chairman of the House Ways and Means trade subcommittee. He said he would hold public hearings on the yen and suggested that legislation Congress is considering to tackle currency manipulation by China may also be aimed at Japan.
Democrats Write Paulson
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank of Massachusetts, Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel of New York, Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman John Dingell and Levin wrote Paulson last month to complain that ``a weak yen is a reflection of Japanese government policy.''
Paulson's ``defense of the Japanese and the yen has been absolutely magnificent -- from the Japanese viewpoint,'' Dingell, a Michigan Democrat said in an interview last week. ``Congress is going to continue boiling with outrage.''
U.S.-Japanese trade has almost doubled over the past two decades to $209 billion last year and at times has been a political issue. In the 1980s, U.S. lawmakers smashed Japanese consumer goods on the grounds of the Capitol and threatened an across-the-board 25 percent tariff on Japanese imports because of what they said were policies that kept out American products and favored Japanese products because of a weak yen.
Treasury `Thrilled'
In his book, Taylor says the Treasury was ``thrilled'' in 2001 when Japan began pursuing a policy of ``quantitative easing,'' to try to spur economic growth by increasing the supply of yen in the economy. As one aspect of that policy, Japan bought dollars and sold yen.
``Our policy toward exchange rate intervention in Japan was part of our effort to be supportive of quantitative easing,'' Taylor wrote. ``By not registering our strong objections to the intervention, effectively allowing it to happen, we made it easier for the Japanese to pump up their money supply.''
That hasn't stopped the complaints from automakers, in part because Japan holds $644 billion of U.S. Treasury debt, almost exactly what it held in March 2004.
``They are sitting on this huge amount of currency reserves,'' Mustafa Mohatarem, GM's chief economist, said in an interview. If Japan only buys dollars and never sells them, ``that shows you they are managing their currency,'' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Drajem in Washington at mdrajem@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 7, 2007 19:40 EST
[22:23 EUR/USD: Opens Asia Looking A Bit Worn As Market Shifts Focus] Sydney,
March 6: The EUR/USD eased below support around 1.3080 during the US session, as
the EUR/USD has been plagued by heavy EUR/JPY selling and a subtle shift in the
market"s focus. Some analysts feel that the rising risk-aversion and growing
fears of a global economic slowdown is the beginning of the end of the market"s
myopic focus on favourable interest rate differentials in determining the
relative value of currencies. In 2000/2001 the market bought currencies that had
central banks promoting growth by cutting interest rates or at least avoiding
raising them. Currencies whose central banks were keeping rates tight were sold
and this resulted in the EUR/USD sliding lower at that time. Analysts note that
the EUR/USD has eased below 1.3100 despite US yields tumbling and expectations
that the ECB will hike rates on Thursday.
Key support for the EUR/USD is found around 1.3005/10. This level contains the
100-day MA and the 61.8 fibo of the 1.2870/1.3260 move and a break below would
be a bearish event. The EUR/USD trades 1.3091/96. -- John.Noonan@thomson.com
[00:46 USD/JPY, JPY Crosses: CME Margin Hike A Nail In The Coffin] Tokyo, Mar 5.
The CME hiked its margin on yen positions by 25% Friday, and this looks to have
been a major nail in the coffin for JPY-funded carry trades. The change takes
place three days after the yen had its largest daily percentage increase against
the US dollar. The what looks to be a protracted rise in volatility seems to
have been behind the CME move. In addition to rises in JPY positions against
USD, AUD, EUR and GBP, the CME also upped its margins on US Treasury futures and
the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. This may have given quite a bit of fuel to
the USD/JPY and JPY-cross plunges seen after the return of Tokyo players today
with retail and margin accounts piling out of carry trades. --
Haruya.ida@thomson.com
[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]
I use KITCO for the metal prices ... dunno.
Who needs the heartache. I am glad I got out of that trade unscathed. Gonna stay away from that pair.
[00:13 NEWS: Nikkei Opens Down 500 Pts Or Close To 3%] Tokyo, Feb 26. The Nikkei is down over 500 points after the open, and still looking to move lower. At writing, the Nikkei has plummetted to 17,472.24, down 647 points or so or roughly 3.6% on the day. --Haruya.Ida@thomson.com
20:10 EUR/USD: Sidelines Alluring amid Turmoil Boston, February 27. Dealers are too busy watching their personal portfolios meltdown to spec to much in EUR/USD as that pair remains heavy owing to wholesale liquidation of EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF. Gold has fallen to $666, an ominous price as markets go to hell in a hand basket. Offers are seen at 1.3260, 1.3275 and 1.3290/00. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com /rs
20:56 EUR/USD: Does Trichet have the Nerve to Hike A Week Thursday? Boston, February 27. The life of a central banker has been pretty easy of late, especially for members of the ECB. Push up rates 25 bp once a quarter or so and let the market in on the gig well in advance. Suddenly the world changed today with stock markets shifting into reverse and bond markets easing for the central banks. It will be very difficult for Trichet to tighten a week from this Thursday if today"s price action in global markets is sustained. He will be keenly aware that the Bundesbank is still tarred in global lore for causing the 1986 stock market crash. He likely will not want a repeat. Look for some sort of dovish nod in the next few days if market continue on their present path. The default position of hawkish talk looks to be on hold for a minimum.
While EUR/JPY has fallen heavily, EUR/USD could be very vulnerable on a premature halt in the ECB tightening cycle. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com /rs
Lava, you may want to hold on to that short. I shorted the EUR also and will hold till at least 1.3100.
22:04 FOREX: White House & Treasury Watching Markets San Francisco, February 27. Traders note that the White House and Treasury are watching the markets after the DJIA closed over 400 pts lower. The White House spokesman stated earlier this afternoon that the US economy is fundamentally sound. Dow Jones reports that the Treasury is continuing its monitoring of the markets, as it regularly does. Traders now wonder if talk of the Plunge Protection Team will re-emerge with reports late last year that Treasury Paulson has re-assembled a market watching team that meets quite regularly. Buzz words are already circulating in Asia with traders looking for stories of margin calls and hedge fund losses to emerge. Only last week, the press reported that margin debt hit a record $285.6 bln in January and the highest since March 2000 before a two-year stock decline. This has only added to market angst. USD/JPY is at 117.93 and EUR/USD at 1.3239. Rhonda.Staskow@Thomson.com
Good analysis ... but remember that the market moves very fast and it takes time for the major trends to emerge. You gotta follow the news daily to be in the loop.
I used to trade stocks .. I will NEVER go back. You get instant gratification or instant heartburn. There is nothing better than having London session triggering your buy stop and then taking profit with a big lot 50 pips away while you sleep.
You make an instant 500 bucks especially with a pair like the GBP/USD while you sleep.
It is Golden I tell ya.
That is the gist of it correct! Be sure to practice for a whole year .. if you can hold out that long. LOL! You will see season patterns and HUGE moves that will surprise you (200 pips+) and if you are on the wrong side of the trade you wil lose big. With a stock you can only lose the cost of the stock but with forex you can losed an unlimited amount of $$$ (if you DON'T use stops losses). If you do not want to use stop losses then you can hedge the same currency pair (FXCM offers hedging) or play the EUR/USD - USD/CHF combination.
Good luck.
You absolutely positively have to learn about the fundamental reports. Technical analysis goes out the window during news releases.
With your vast fundamental knowledge combined with technical analysis you can make as you say a "boatload" more $$$. Bank traders look at the daily chart and the 20 and 50 moving averages. They hold for at least a week.
The most important indicator is price action. Clusters of support and resistance are very important. Think of it like this ... a guy buys a stock at 1.3000 (eur/usd). And this dude bought this "stock" at the same time as other traders bought the stock at that price. This price is engraved in their minds and they have a threshold of pain (stop loss) that they must deal with. So there is a very high "probability" that the price will bounce at these levels. Nothing is for sure but this is a game of probabilities right?
Also the second most important tool in your arsenal is Fibonacci. Hands down (my opinion) it will absolutely AMAZE you how price follows these levels.
Also look at price action at the figure 1.3100, 1.3200 etc.
The half figures 1.3150 are very important also.
Trendlines for the most part are respected .. you know why?
Because traders know that other traders will respect these lines and so they go with the masses.
If you combine all this with your superb fundamental knowledge you will do very very well.
I have alot more pointers ... feel free to ask any questions you have.
Glad you are thinking about turning to the dark side Luke ... I mean Lava! LOL!
I decided to live by my old motto :
I should have held
LOL! i follow it down nearly 200 pips just to make 20 lol!
Thanks man ... I hope Iran doessn`t pull any bullshit until I exit this USD/CAD hell.
LOL! Hilarious!! Hinda looks like the USD kicking CAD`s ass!
Did you see the stop loss run just now?
Again that is the funniest picture you ever posted!
You kill me dude! LOL!
This the beginning of the stock market fall (correction) all over the world. Hold on to your shorts ... or shall I say fur!
May the forex gods be with me. Gold and alot of metals aredown on the day...
http://www.kitco.com/market/
In fact all the commodities are down today LOL!
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
I see red everywhere !!!
Agreed! They really are a bunch of crooks. The spread is 6 pips instead of 3 on the EUR/USD many times!
Then how do you explain this? The highest it ever got on Sunday at the time you specified was 1.3197. Are you saying they cheated the customers out of 3 pips? That is a wide discrepancy. Bunch of crooks.
Don`t forget the spread is 3 pips on most platforms so if it hits 1.3200 on the chart it is really a sell 3 pips lower at 1.3197.
The take profit orders at 1.3200 were never triggered.
The charts are always off.
The EUR/USD did not even hit 1.3200 on Sunday. It cleared the stops at 1.3200 yesterday at 7pm ET. How do you figure?
Is FXCM a bucket shop? Where almost all people long on the euro? If in fact it is a bucket shop and most people were long then YES they would have been screwed ... but I fail to see that scenario.
Ultimatepick
Now I really feel sorry for them LOL!
Dear Client,
On behalf of all of FXCM, we wish to sincerely apologize for the recent
technical problems our firm experienced.
We know our clients were unable to trade on February 25th and for part of
February 26th. As a result, clients with open positions were unable to close
positions during this period or take advantage of trading opportunities. We are very
sorry and believe this is unacceptable.
All clients who suffered a loss on open positions due to the technical failures
related to the market opening on Sunday February 25th will be fully refunded
the amount of any loss.
We are committed to learning from this experience and are putting in place
measures to prevent future outages from occurring. The primary goal of FXCM is to
have the best and most reliable forex trading platform. Over the past few
months, FXCM has invested millions of dollars to upgrade our technology with two
combined aims: to roll out No Dealing Desk execution and to increase overall
reliability. Obviously, the efforts to increase reliability have fallen short. We
are now going to re-double our efforts on platform reliability and stability,
renewing our commitment of resources and financial investment to successfully
accomplish these goals.
The technology upgrade related to No Dealing Desk execution is the key to
providing you with the best trading platform. With the roll-out of No Dealing Desk
execution, clients can trade on rates provided directly from several of the
world's largest banks. These banks compete with each other to provide the best
rates, which at times results in spreads as low as 2 pips. In the coming weeks, we
intend to provide a major reduction in spreads on most currency pairs. We
believe that you will be impressed with No Dealing Desk execution once the
technology issues are resolved.
We have had some difficult days during the upgrade from a technical standpoint
and will do everything in our power to help our clients who were negatively
affected due to the technical errors that arose. Moreover, I want to assure you
that these technical issues are not indicative of FXCM's financial stability or
health. FXCM has over $100 million in capital and no debt. In addition,
approximately $600 million in client funds are traded using our platform, the FX
Trading Station.
Words cannot express how deeply sorry we are for the frustration and anxiety
that our clients experienced during this recent difficulty. If you have any
questions or concerns, or would like to discuss a loss you incurred on an open
position during the period mentioned above, please feel free to contact us 24 hours
a day. You can reach us via e-mail at sales@fxcm.com, via live chat from our
website, or via phone at (212) 897-7660. You may also access our international
toll-free numbers from this link: http://www.fxcm.com/contact-fxcm.jsp.
Respectfully yours,
Drew Niv
CEO, FXCM
Financial Square
32 Old Slip, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10005
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and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign
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capital that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks
associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent
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FXCM is compensated for its services through the spread between the bid/ask
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For recipients of this communication who are resident in the UK or have an
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All the stock markets around the world are going to crash!
There is divergence everywhere especially in the FTSE.
Soon we can have a divergence party. I will bring the strong Canadian beer.
The question is ............
which stock market will CRASH LESS!
Dear FXCM Customer,
On behalf of all of FXCM, we wish to sincerely apologize for the problems we are having. We
have spent millions on upgrading our systems to make sure an outage of the kind you have
experienced this past trading session would not happen, but obviously we were wrong.
To further clarify and explain in the past few months, we have been busy upgrading our
service, both hardware and software to deliver a much improved trading experience for our
clients. More specifically, the rolling out of our No Dealing Desk option which allows
clients to trade on rates directly from some of the largest banks in the world. These
banks compete with each other to provide the best rates which results in spreads as being
as low as 2 pips. We do believe that all clients will be impressed with the end result of
our upgrade once all the measures are set in place.
At FXCM we strive to provide clients with the best experience in trading and customer
service and words can't express how deeply sorry we are for the frustration and anxiety
that our clients have experienced.
We assure you that any client's with an open position from last week who has suffered a
loss due to the technical failures as of market opening on Sunday February 25th will
have there trades reviewed and any necessary adjustments will be made to these accounts.
We also want to assure you that these technical issues are not indicative of FXCM
financial stability or health. FXCM has over $100M in capital and no debt. In addition
approximately $600 million in customer funds are traded using the FX Trading Station.
Honestly, we have had some bad days as we go through the upgrade in services and execution
from a technical standpoint, and we will do everything in our power to help our clients
who were negatively affected due to the technical errors that arose.
We sincerely appreciate your understanding and we are always open to look into trade you
bring to our attention. Please do not hesitate to contact us and let us know of any issues
you need us to look into.
I almost feel sorry for them LOL!
I just off chat with a rep from FXCM ... here is the conversation. To be fair I am posting this so FXCM can defend itself. You have to always see both sides of the story.
I guess a pimple faced IT guy really fracked up LOL!
Please wait for a site operator to respond.
You are now chatting with 'FXCM)21'
FXCM)21: Welcome to FXCM's Live Chat Feature. So that we may better serve you, feel free to provide me with your name and email address. How may I help you?
you: i cannot login to my account XXXXXXXXXXXX .. it says wrong username or password
FXCM)21: we are having maintenance on some servers due to networking issues; the production team is working at fixing this as we speak.
FXCM)21: You can get an update on this real time by going to www.fxstatus.com
you: ***The FXCM Trading Station is now operating without any issues for all live clients. If you are experiencing problems please close out of the platform then re-log onto your account.***
you: check my password please
FXCM)21: I see, we are working on updating the website now
FXCM)21: your password should be working fine
FXCM)21: it seems that this is on our end
FXCM)21: we will update the site soon
you: can you tell me what uis happening? this is not routine maintenance ... are you declaring bankruptcy? I have a right to know
FXCM)21: Of course you do
FXCM)21: On behalf of all FXCM, I wish to sincerely apologize for the problems we are having. We have spent millions on upgrading our systems to make sure an outage of the kind you have experienced this past trading session would not happen, but unfrotunately we were wrong.
FXCM)21: In the past few months, we have been busy upgrading our service, both hardware and software to deliver a much improved trading experience for our clients.
FXCM)21: At FXCM we strive to provide clients with the best experience in trading and customer service and words can’t express how deeply sorry we are for the frustration and anxiety that our clients have experienced.
FXCM)21: We assure you that any client’s with an open position from last week who has suffered a loss due to the technical failures as of market opening on Sunday February 25th will be refunded the amount of the loss.
FXCM)21: I also want to assure you that these technical issues are not indicative of FXCM financial stability or health. FXCM has over $100M in capital and no debt.
FXCM)21: In addition approximately $600 million in customer funds are traded using the FX Trading Station.
you: can you send me the link to what you just posted? thanks
FXCM)21: You can check all that information on our webiste
FXCM)21: www.fxcm.com
FXCM)21: we just compiled all teh info making it user freindly to use
FXCM)21: check under company profile
FXCM)21: even www.cftc.gov webiste
FXCM)21: you will find all that information
you: ok ... this downtime look extremely bad for the company .. thanks for reassuring
http://fxstatus.com/
***Last Update 07:13 AM EST***
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when you can begin placing trades***
***Thank you for your patience as we resolve this networking issue***
Most of our customers can now log in, but rates may not be updating and
trades are being rejected. You should not begin trading yet.
If you need to close a trade please call:
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The messages "wrong username and password"
"unable to obtain station descriptor" and "an unexpected error has occurred
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It was from a while ago
Mister Lava, do you kow something we don't? Do share
Try going to http://www.fxcm.com/ and http://www.tradingstationsupport.com/