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If Noelle, or anyone in her position, values her job (and the shares that come with it) she'll have trained herself to give the exact same response to every question each time it, or a variant of it, is asked. The winks and nods will come from people at a much higher pay grade than her.
It appears that combination therapy is working out well and these fronts. The question to be answered in the posters is "To what degree?" and, more importantly, "To what clinical effect?"
To be cynical, this is good news, so we should all sell a few shares and buy back in tomorrow!!
Hov - You're the most qualified of those suggested, and dismissing yourself speaks to your integrity. Thanks for your honesty. (Did I just say that to a reporter?? :) )
Unless you're talking about the unannounced delay into Q1 2018, there is no delay. There won't be until April 1st. Seems lots of folks here think that q1 2018 means by the end of January 2018.
It doesn't take a miracle to avoid tapping those shares when you start the game with 200M, so I have to disagree with your premise.
Iggy - did you mean prior to submission? Your statement contradicts the one you responded to.
Some thoughts and a question....
As some have observed, it's almost comical how many on this board, less than a week ago, were stating they were buying more shares, things are finally turning around, etc, etc. Now those same people are saying the sky is falling. Calmer minds are providing some speculation about what it might mean in the grander scheme of things. Much appreciated.
At least 2 posters stated the increase in shares was to reload the "poison pill". That got me thinking.
Suppose for a minute Advaxis is truly headed for great things, but currently find themselves being manipulated at an artificially suppressed share price. From their perspective this doesn't matter, they have the money already to pay the bills and keep the trials going. Construct sales/licenses negotiations are underway, etc. Now it's 2018 and things (bear with me here) are heating up. EU submission is imminent, as are the publication of very favorable trial results. You know the sp will rise at least 3-4x from where you are, perhaps more. You also know that your impending catalysts are going to attract attention, perhaps quite a lot. In your meetings you discuss the possibility of a hostile takeover, and no one in the room likes the idea. So....
I did some VERY cursory research on how a poison pill works. From what I gather, the company writes IN THEIR CHARTER, that if a buyer accumulates x% of the shares, there is an AUTOMATIC dilution that is pre-determined. That dilution goes to current shareholders (i.e. mostly management) making is very unattractive to even attempt a takeover. (Again, this is my understanding, and there are different types of poison pills, flip-in, flip-over, others. It gave me a headache. Feel free to elaborate.)
So my question to the financial types here is "Is the 20M extra shares currently available enough to stop a takeover? Or is more needed?"
Noelle even hinted that this might be the reason, or at least a reason.
And for what it's worth, we should be able to find out the details of this in the charter. I looked for it but couldn't find it. Anyone care to take a crack at it?
Hang in there folks, it's about to get real interesting.....
Other than validation, I'm afraid you're correct. The sample size is too small and not enough time has passed to adequately compare to soc.
Also, someone please correct me if I'm wrong as I haven't finished even my first cup of coffee this morning, but didn't Advaxis cancel all future anal cancer trials, possibly looking to license the indication?
Unfortunately he didn't say employees are buying all the stock they can. That's what can't be verified. Any Advaxis employees lurking on the board won't say so for fear of losing their job. I checked glass door again and there's nothing new there either.
This is the kind of thing all longs here like to read. Only problem is it can't be verified. I really hope it's true, though!
From the Px website:
Again, why do you think this is a NEW delay? The original delay was from Q4 2017, to Q1 2018. The calendar Q1. Like the end of March Q1. There is no further delay.
Oh, and by the way, the more I think about this - IF the GOG receives any money from the federal government, and they very well may, in information I requested is likely covered under the freedom of information act and they would be required to provide it. We'll see.
There is lots of debate on the board recently about EMA filing and the perceived delay. I thought this was all figured out in December and that Advaxis had done their part and it was in GOG's hands. Since Advaxis won't say, I decided to ask the GOG directly. :)
I sent this letter to the GOG this morning:
It is my understanding that the European Medical Agency has asked the GOG for more information on the current treatment options and effectiveness of those options for patients with cervical cancer to further evaluate a new immunotherapy approach with the agent known as axalimogene filolisbac.
I would like to know if the GOG has supplied this information to either the EMA or to the agents manufacturer, Advaxis Inc. I'd also be interested in knowing when this information has been or will be communicated, if currently known.
This information is part of a research project I am conducting on the regulatory process for domestic and overseas drug development. Any help is greatly appreciated.
I don't hold out much hope for an answer, but it's worth a shot.
Right now warrants are $2 behind the sp. Wait until Oct and they will be worthless. But there ARE significant catalysts between now and then.
Two extreme scenarios:
1 - SP remains where it is, around 3. As Oct approaches the warrants fall from $1 now, to 0.75 to 50, to .25. My bet is (as I have no experience) that they will be below 0.20 by August if the sp remains around $3. In this case the argument in my other post holds and the math dictates what to do - sell the warrants at market for whatever you can get and use the exercise money you had to purchase the common. It would NEVER make sense to exercise your warrants when the sp is below $5. Simply buy the common, you'll get more shares.
2. Because of the catalysts, the sp rises to say $10 by June. Warrants will probably be around 6-7, as the leverage time frame is quickly evaporating. I'm not sure what other catalysts are in the 3rd Qtr. Now the math is different and the "correct" thing to do would be to exercise your warrants for $5. Note the tipping point to this is the common stock share price being above $5.
I found it interesting the other day reading on this message board the speculation that Advaxis, or any company, and extend the warrant expiry. Anyone interested in a calling campaign to Noelle to suggest this?
Has this been done successfully in the past in other companies? Under what circumstances? Does anyone think some of the tutes could put pressure to extend it?
Yeah, I know this is a long shot, but warrant holders have nothing to lose by engaging in this.
Well, lets do some math to decide.
Say for arguments sake cs is $3 and warrants are $1. About where they are now actually. Also say you have 10K warrants.
To exercise it would cost you $50K and you'd have 10K common shares.
But....if you sold for $1 you'd have $10K and could buy cs at 3 so you'd have 3333 shares.
Now you could take that 50K you had to exercise and buy an additional 16,666 shares, ending up with 20K shares of cs.
For the purists out there, this is obviously an exercise to get a point across, not an absolute, so don't bother with the "you'd never be able to sell all those warrants at the same price...." etc, etc.
Remember gajj, the warrants will NEVER be more than $5 behind the cs. I'm holding out for EU submission and see what the action is before deciding what to do.
The question all warrant holders (like myself) need to answer is "Where do you the sp of the common stock will be in October of this year?"
The warrants will be $5 behind this number.
Are there enough milestones between now and then to make them worth keeping, or should everyone bail out of the warrants now?
The answer you act on is either a real test of faith or commitment to your own due diligence.
Advaxis has stated:
- there will be more trial results in 1H 2018
- there will be EU submission in 1Q 2018
- they are actively looking for both a CEO and CMO
- they are looking to sell or license HER2
- they are looking for an EU partner
- and there are more milestones 2018 milestone in the corporate presentation
Again, where do you think the sp of the common stock will be in October 2018?
GLTAL's...
Investorhub showing Advaxis delisted from Nasdaq?
If Blue's theory is correct and the reversal is after the 1st of year, we can expect the takedown to continue all week. For the first time since owning this stock I'm seriously considering not looking at the sp till next week.
Fair question, but remember, EMA submission is slated for 1Q 2018, probably less than 2 months from now if TL over delivers.
Shorts can't wait any longer after that, they will cover and the PPS will rise. Same thing happened to DNDN. It achieved around 85% of its top sp before approval. Think about that a min....approval itself affected the share price very little. It won't matter what the decision is, or will be, for the sp to rise very, very significantly before then.
But back to your question. It's also been stated a partnership will be reached for EU distribution. With a partnership comes much needed cash. Cash that will also raise the sp. Cash that will hopefully negate the need to raise more before approval. But even if Advaxis needs to dilute, it won't be near as bad as at these levels, and you know that to be true.
And there may also be some unexpected surprises in terms of trial results, naming of CMO and CEO which may also have a positive effect, etc.
So no FBG, we won't run out of cash, and I believe we won't even need to dilute, but things are being cut a bit thin in terms of timing to avoid dilution. You know I'm in warrants 100% right now and I'm not changing my position before EMA submission. After that I'll see what happens and act accordingly.
While some here are expecting the brakes to be released after the first of the year, I don't think they will until EMA submission. It's then that the clock really starts to tick for the shorts.
As to selling the beech....with the finish line in sight? Really?
They're looking for both CMO and CEO
Since everyone else is speculating on what will happen Thursday, I guess I'll give my 2 cents.
TLDR: not much
If there will be any good news at all I believe it will be the sale of HER2. Does anyone know if there are tax considerations for selling this close to the end of year vs after Jan 1? If so then waiting till after the 1st would make sense, but as implied I'm not knowledgeable about such things.
It's already in the corporate presentation that EU submission is in 1st Q 2018. I hope TL can over deliver and blindside some shorts, but I don't think so. TL seems to be a man of his word, however few of them there are.
EU Partnership? As has already been argued, the timing would have to be impeccable. I suppose our dealmaker-in-chief has the skills to pull this off, but again, I believe this is a low probability
Look for implications that dilution won't be necessary, I think it's the best we'll hear until submission. After that there are plenty of trial results to look forward to in the 1H 2018.
Another reason why I feel this way is that IF there were really good news coming we'd most likely have seen a run up by now. Good news doesn't stay secret for long and it should have leaked by now.
BTW, if I were TL I'd be dusting off Lucille and banging on Aratana's door with her.
Do YOU realize that 70% of all drugs that make it to PIII are eventually approved? This only makes sense, as companies are not likely to even try a PIII unless they have a very strong signal the product will be successful.
This is true, go to the FDA website and look it up yourself.
I don't disagree that we need to get rid of the interim title for our CEO, either by making TL permanent or hiring new.
However, if you had a choice of letting your investors know more accurately when milestones will be hit or remaining silent and missing those same milestones, which would you prefer?
TL in my view has done the responsible thing in changing the target dates of important milestones. How he went about letting investors know about it is more a subject for debate, I suppose, but I can only imagine the reactions of the street and this message board if TL put out a PR with the headline: "Advaxis announces delay in EU submission for AXAL".
How do YOU think that would have gone over?
FBG - On a timeline you in incapable of imagining, if the company isn't sold, then yes, I can see the MC reaching 10B, quite possibly more.
Wow, there are so many logical fallacies in this statement I don't know where to begin.
1 - You still haven't addressed my statement. You continue to look backward and now seemingly state it's worthless to even try and look forward. Get help.
2 - I certainly didn't say start from scratch, a well know CEO may be a key piece to get this stock moving. Not that I have anything against TL, but I think the "interim" title is weighing a bit
3 - I never said the company should "experiment". A few well known, top of the line individuals. There are people with track records, with experience. If Advaxis doesn't have them they should know it and correct it.
4- A few weeks ago you were "optimistic" about getting to 50. Languish, and you're back down to 20. Next speech by TL and where will you be????
5- 1B is pathetic. See my pinned post as to why I believe so.
Thanks Hornet. I was going to do the same thing this weekend. You saved me the trouble.
Your response doesn't address mine. You're looking at things historically, by advocating new hires, better people to make better decisions, I'm looking forward.
FBG, mark this post.
As soon as Advaxis submits for EU approval the stock will start to rise from the depths we are in. The brakes will be released and Advaxis will achieve it's fair valuation. It may even happen before then if a good partnership deal is announced, which as has been stated by TL is already in the works. The share price will continue to rise and achieve around 80-90% of it's high right before an approval (if that is the decision). If the EU doesn't approve the stock crashes, hard.
This is exactly what happened to DNDN, which didn't crash until it missed their sales projections soon after approval.
EU application submission is now slated to be in 1Q2018, but I'm hoping TL of under-promising and over delivering and it will be in early 1Q. The clock starts ticking then, my friend.
The cost of warrants will never fall more than $5 behind the common. The question is really how much leverage is there between now and next October? In my view it's lots, since we know we have SO, SO many material events in 1H 2018.
I really don't know the tax implications you ask about. I'm trying to get all my warrants into my Roth since I won't every access them until I retire. If the sp stays this low in Jan I should be able to get the rest in.
I do have a friend who's into this sort of thing. Next time I see him I'll ask.
Oh, and thanks for the compliment!
Agree James. This is evidenced by the fact they are still hiring. Some may call it a sign of foolishness, I think you'd agree with me when that it's a sign of confidence.
Hey FBG, I'm still waiting for an answer to my question. And Bourbon, being "one of the only adults in the room" as you stated, feel free to answer as well.
What is the catalyst that gets us to $20 that doesn't value us at much, much more??
You raise an interesting question concerning our product. What will the treatment location be? With only minimal side effects, it's reasonable to consider the doctors office, but because they may want more accounting, it may be a chemo clinic inside a hospital. Out-patient setting for sure.
Unlike the CAR-T's, which require an ICU stay. Let that sink in.
I'll look for this reference, but for now I'll say that CAR-T therapies are going to go for >400K per treatment. A long time ago DOC said something in one of the conference calls that I was able to extrapolate into them thinking that 70K was going to be the # they were thinking of charging, at least in the US. This was why a chose the 50K figure in my analysis, I just wanted to be conservative.
In this unique instance, the cost of production is inconsequential, and the price will be determine by other factors, mainly how to recoup development costs as quickly as possible and how to pick a price point that most insurers will pay.
There is NO WAY this goes for 20K per treatment.
You recall reading. May I have a link? I'd like to read it myself.
But you didn't answer my question. I'm disappointed. Can I ask why you avoided it?
Let me ask you a question, FBG. What is going to get this stock back to $20? Has to be good news, right? So, what good news could do this? EU application, which starts the clock is one I can think of. Slated to happen 1Q 2018. But is this EU application enough to get this to your magical number?
Cervical cancer alone can generate probably over 1B a year in the EU and US combined. But this will only be in the EU, but I didn't count, you know, the rest of the world, so lets call it a wash, shall we? So 1B in sales. Which is all profit since the manufacturing costs are the price of a Starbucks coffee.
So my friend, what is a company with 49M fully diluted shares worth with revenue of 1B? It's a real question for you to answer, as I'm not qualified to.
But there's more to this equation, isn't there? We have 3 other franchises, one of which is for sale. EU application sends a strong signal that Advaxis is for real, the clock is ticking, and if you don't want to miss the boat you'd better step on the gas. Oh, and we also have about a dozen more patents on other antigens. Oh, and HOT. Oh, and NEO. hmmm. Lots of potential here, don't you think? Or rather, don't you think much, much bigger players would think?
So, let me modify my original question FBG. What propels this stock to $20 that doesn't propel it any further?? You're frustrated, I get it. But I think you're also a bit short sighted. But I think you also agree with me. Just recently you mentioned, after the presentation by Tony, how you're now more optimistic this could reach 50 or 60. (Please admit it, I really don't feel like searching for your post.)
This stock has been manipulated no end. And there has also been some real selling by tutes. Fidelity's exit was real but as has been explained was automatic, without much if any analysis. Just a basic business decision based on pre-determined criteria. And while I don't agree it's a great way to make a decision because I'm an individual, I'm open minded enough to realize it may be a good way to make decisions for the long term by an entity investing broadly over the market. So be it.
These exits were the partial reason for the recent crash. But many here who have done their DD, who believe in the science, who know Advaxis hasn't had a bad trial outcome yet, who are anticipating better outcome trials when combined with PP-1 and PD-L1 inhibitors (whose trials are ongoing with initial results slated for 1H 2018), are taking this as a unique buying opportunity.
Sorry for the rant, guys. I'll end with a repeat of my question above.
What gets this stock to $20 that doesn't get it much, much higher??
This is the quote I responded to:
Advaxis most certainly DOES NOT need a bp to get a construct approved. As already stated, the PIII WITH SPA is already underway. Historically, drugs in PIII have a 70% success rate. We are all hoping for early EU approval and the clock will start ticking in early 2018 when Advaxis submits. This finish line (or is it a starting line??) is in sight. It's amazing to me how some ppl here want to quit the race now.