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Please raj, explain your "connect the dots" like I'm 5. I'm not trying to be adversarial, but I just don't understand what the implication is. An application is nothing in my mind, value comes from trial results only for this company. Advaxis is a Phase I company again, and it's probably 8+ years before any approval. In the meantime, they are still sub $1, despite resent events, and will need more money to keep the trials going. (I didn't ask about dilution, but there it is)
How much longer till delisting and RS?
Anyone know how long till the reverse split?
OMFG!!----Any BP interested could BUY this company outright with a days interest in their overseas accounts.
But, but, but....
For every seller there is a BUYER. LMFAO.
Look at the bright side guys....
Advaxis pulled the plug on their only Phase III trial and the stock barely went down!! It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that that means it's been at the bottom for awhile now!! Good time to BUY!!!
Also...Adxs never said why the FDA didn't approve an early data read out,
or even if they responded at all. My guess is they couldn't wait for the decision or even if they could they wouldn't make it till the data could be read. So, pull the plug, get the (hopefully) good data, and sell the construct. If not, oh well, that land has to be worth something....
I take this to mean they'll be another round of dilution around Aug/sept.
Good day... but is everyone forgetting about the cash runway? Do you all really think this will last? It's already coming down...
Even Hov thinks dilution is inevitable....
Thursday - reverse split, effective Friday
Friday - data release from PI study - ok results for a PI, stops a very significant slide.
Monday - Dilution?? Or will that be Tuesday?
Yep, I agree it good they're alive. However, I have a few questions..
What was they're life expectancy when they were first treated with PSA?
When were they dosed with PSA?
What is survival stats for SOC treatment?
etc...etc..
This means little to nothing without context.
Probably can't afford all those trial sites. Have you been keeping track of the number of sites?
I thought the same thing. Shows how some will spin anything here. This means absolutely NOTHING.
That certainly is the best case scenario. But what good news is to be expected? NEO and HOT are in their infancy still, and AIM2CERV is still on a partial hold. (unless I missed something). Advaxis has been trying to make a deal for YEARS and hasn't produced. I think it's more likely to be dilution, follow by a RS. I say this because we know a RS is viewed negatively and the sp usually drops following one.
Would you agree it's more a question of when and not "if"?
The RS isn't a big deal. It's the dilution afterwards that's gonna suck.
Wasn't the range of the RS 1:10 to 1:25? Isn't 1:4 out of that range?? jeez..
Really have to ask this? The likelihood is 100% at this point, the only question is what the ratio is. I believe it'll be 25:1, the worst case for current shareholders.
Advaxis has loaded the gun, and they fully intend to shoot it.
Someone correct me if I'm mistaken, but as I recall, the last RS occurred sometime in the fall. In December Adage bought in and by the end of that year we were moving up 10-30% per DAY.
My point is that a RS certainly isn't a death bell AND that there will be time to read the tea leaves afterwards. I counsel vigilance after it occurs. If a partner is announced soon after the RS it will have to come with substantial upfront cast to avoid more dilution. I'll be paying very close attention to the cash runway. It appears we'll need 2-3 years cash on hand to finish up aim2cerv, but an earlier mid point readout will affect the sp as well.
Well, if you have to ask Blue...it seems folks are beginning to realize there's no way out of this mess before a reverse split (probably at 25:1) AND more dilution. I believe they will happen in very quick succession. After that, the market looks even more unfavorably on ADXS and it further sinks.
But all is not lost...it is at this point I'll rebuy. AIM2CERV should be a success and the vaccine approved. Moreover, pediatric osteo will also eventually be approved. I think (ok...hope!) this is the last rs and dilution before an approval. But you never know.
Those of use sitting on the sidelines do not believe it will come before a reverse split and more dilution.
When do you think a RS will happen? When do you think the company will run out of money? These are questions all investors should be asking themselves right now. History shows that after a RS the price will drop, so if you don't think a VERY significant run up will happen before then it makes more sense to get out now and buy back in after.
It's my view, go ahead and roast me if you must.
So admittedly I haven't kept up as well as I should. Just how much money does Advaxis have left and if anyone knows the burn rate that would be helpful too. And please spare me the "do your own dd" spiel. That's one reason among many people post here.
It's not on clinical trials.gov yet. When it gets there we'll be able to see which CPI they're using.
So Blue, you predicted a 75% chance of a partnership by the end of last week. Do you care to update your prediction with the added information that the spike in share price that occurred the day of the conference has now vanished?
Well, I have to admit it was a good day. But realistically, we've had several good days over the last few weeks as the stock have risen from the depths of the teens, so I'm unsure what makes this one special, other than a presentation with minimal insight. And make no mistake, it IS minimal.
We still do NOT have a partner and we are still VERY LOW on cash. So the questions still remain..
Can Advaxis get to a place where is does NOT need to do a reverse split?
Can Advaxis avoid dilution?
These things hang over this company like a dead weight, and a few weeks of wild gyrations with any overall uptick isn't going to change that fact.
These are the 2 questions every investor should ask themselves. We are here. We need money to stay alive. HOW are we going to get it?? And...tick, tock...the clock is ticking. We'll be on the OTC board if something isn't done by April or May.
There are NO impending results before then. If this isn't true someone needs to show me.
They have been looking for partners for YEARS...will they get one before a rs and dilution? If you were shopping and knew something you wanted would go on sale soon (i.e. after a rs), wouldn't you wait for it to?
I've stated before and I'll state it again, I'm for Advaxis science, but remain out for now because I see these things as inevitable at this point. I also expect to see a ton of profit taking tomorrow, making today way less pretty in turn.
So Blue...you said last week there's a 75% chance of a deal THIS WEEK. Which day to you expect it on?
You should read your own posts....
To make this statement Blue you must think there is great data that will be presented or that the conference is somehow showcasing Advaxis tech.
Sorry, but neither of those things are true. Anyone here can see for themselves on the conference agenda:
https://theconferenceforum.org/conferences/immuno-oncology-360/2019-agenda/#day-72473-tab
Advaxis will be on a break-out session on Day 1 (hey, at least it's not Day 3 in the late afternoon!). This is hardly a venue that will turn this company around.
What do you place the odds at that there will be a partner, like a knight in shining armor, that will be significant enough to avoid a rs and subsequent dilution?
So iggy I have a few questions for you..if you don't mind.
What do you think the new news on Neo is going to be?
Do you think Adxs will get a deal in less than a month to avoid a rs?
If so, do you think the deal will be big enough to avoid dilution even if there's no rs?
FWIW - I think they're going to shelve Neo...no money left, no data due out, company to refocus on HOT instead.
Adxs been trying to get a deal for years - unlikely they'll get one in the nick of time....really unlikely...
If a deal is somehow miraculously made, there won't be enough cash in it to avoid dilution. Like plenty have said, someone could buy the whole company for what they need to avoid that.
As you know, I'm out for now, but will look to re-enter after the worst is over....
OMG, really?? Which part of "related to chemistry, manufacturing and controls" eludes you??? The statement says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about trial design. duh.
'related to chemistry, manufacturing and controls"
This sounds like a GMP issue. Did Kenny boy thin the quality control staff a bit too much? Failing to keep accurate records or worse, really not doing the things they're supposed to?
What a friggin disaster. But I guess some will find a silver lining, right blue?
Sorry blue, it's much more likely fbg's being facetious, or even short.
I don't know if he'll be laughing in the end, but you've been wrong alot yourself.
So I have what I will identify as a conspiracy theory.
I've been confused about the recent fluctuations in price. It's difficult to be restrained when you see increases of 30% or so in a day. And then see it happen on multiple days. In-between it loses some value, then jumps again. It made me think that perhaps some inside information leaked and that a partnership was imminent. That would be the only logical conclusion as there is no data coming - not in the near future anyway.
But as I mulled over it the last several weeks I began to think differently about it. Advaxis has announced their intention to reverse split and has even go so far as to give us the range of it. I believe, as do many here, that it is inevitable. Given that, what would be the worst thing to happen? That most or all investors bail in anticipation and salvage what they can. Buy back in after the rs maybe. Or maybe wait a bit because after the rs the sp will drop. If you're Advaxis management you'd have to be sweating bullets at this thought. So how do you keep the sheep invested? Maybe have a couple of days where the sp runs? Simultaneously talk about partnerships in your conference call? Hmmm....
I think this makes sense, but I'd like to have the opinion of those with more experience......
Name one, just one, trial of over 30 humans that had a negative outcome.
For the record, I never thought Advaxis was a scam, and still don't. I do believe they made some fundamental mistakes that put them in the position they are now. I lay most of this on DOC. While he's the person who got institutions interested and got the price to $30, he's also the one who bit off more than could be chewed. I believe that HE believed that the tech was so good and compelling nothing could stop the rise. But he was dead wrong. He hired boat loads of folks for research and put the company on a path for 2 new platforms - NEO and HOT. But he did this without income, relying on the money he raised and an unreasonable (in hindsight) expectation of imminent success. But he could and should have foreseen the money running out. (So should we all have). What I believe should have been done instead was to use that money to have more, perhaps many more, clinical trial sites for AIM2CERV, thereby getting more patients enrolled sooner and hopefully getting an approved product on the shelf generating income. THEN it would be time for NEO and HOT to get developed. Now Advaxis is a hot mess and is resetting the clock, leaving long term investors holding the bag. Amgen leaving says NOTHING about the future possible success of AIM2CERV, it's a different platform, and it's still a Phase III trial. Advaxis for all it's faults has seen the error and is trying to correct it by asking the FDA to approve a redesign to the trial for earlier reading. They also know they will run out of money soon and must, MUST, dilute and r/s to stay listed.
I sold a few months ago, and like I've said before, I believe they'll be an opportunity to re-enter after the above mentioned nastiness. If they offer warrants I'll probably buy those since they'll likely expire well after AIM2CERV is scheduled for completion.
Good luck to all, whatever you decide.
Have a happy new year. Hug everyone you love, and some you don't.
VIRUS??? ROFLAFAO
You know Blue, it's been said that "Greed is good", from the movie Wall Street I believe. Lots of folks here supported that sentiment over the years. I'm not sure if you were one, but if you were you're certainly not any longer. Reigning in the white collar crooks and bankers will only help the vast majority of us. "They" have devised a legal system designed to have the money flow from the masses to the select few. We all thought we could ride the coattails up with this stock, only to see now we never really had a chance unless the science was stellar. They remain whole, and I suppose they knew they would all along. We only have one weapon against them - there's a lot more of us than them, and we vote too. Choose wisely, my friend, if not for yourself, than for your children and all those who come after.
One thing thru all this that puzzles me.. From the highs till now I don't recall any significant selling of shares by insiders. I do remember some sales that were attributed at the time as "automatic" and "tax selling" or some similar things. Did I miss something? Could the share grants come with a "no sell" type clause?
Really? Sometimes I wish there were a way to search this board for keywords or phrases. I can't count the number of times I've seen "the bottom is in". Of course, we are getting close to zero....
Not true, at least not for everyone. I sold at a buck and am watchfully waiting for a good re-entry point, should one develop.
Well, that also means the investors also have a construct (or is it more of a platform?) that isn't worth that much.