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Congrats!…in todays small cap market that is a great win.
I also think this, and I know it sounds crazy, paranoid, stupid….it often seems to me that until enough shares of a stock get into the “correct” hands that that stock cannot make a big move up. I think this sometimes happens because the correct hand is often a very big boy capable of holding a stock down until he has all the shares he wants. No way to ever prove it, just anecdotal observations over decades of trading.
My point was this …. Sometimes selling some shares is actually helpful to kick off a move up in a stock…..yes, seems crazy.
Premarket today (30minutes before the open) shows 33,000 shares for sale at an Ask of 7.35. It will be interesting to see if those get bought today. Would be a nice sign of strength to see those gone early. Low 8s by late day?
That was a stupid move by someone to sell about 40,000 shares “at the market”……so they got what they deserved. The great news about that trade from a stock chart perspective is that it filled the gap!
Stock behaving nicely today. It does sorta surprise me though how it trades somewhat independent of company results. I mean, if eps were 15 or 35 would it be trading any different? Or if revenue had been 8 instead of 10, any difference? I guess it really is a story stock….for now.
Stock behaving nicely today. It does sorta surprise me though how it trades somewhat independent of company results. I mean, if eps were 15 or 35 would it be trading any different? Or if revenue had been 8 instead of 10, any difference? I guess it really is a story stock….for now.
I think in the conf call they said as of March 31st it was just about $19million.
What was "light" were the new bookings in Q1, they were only $4.4million.
The silver lining to the 4.4 is it ensures that Ferris/Givens will finally fix the Sales Org. In the conf call it sounds like they have already started making changes/improvements to Sales.
I think the $19mil buys them enough time to get Sales jacked up and producing so they don't have a clunker quarter.
PFC…..pretty……close
Beautiful!….finally
Inflection point is now for the company. I am buying as much as I can.
I think you nailed it!….but I think eps will be closer to 20 than 15.
Hope you loaded up near $1. I did. Love the structure of new CEO contract and his background.
Relative to many other tiny company stocks VTSI has been trading very strong the last couple weeks. Hope that foretells upcoming strong results.
May 15th - Legal but Ridiculous. May 15th and after the close! Not very shareholder friendly. Not very investor friendly. Same problem, Q2 will be over half finished and they are reporting Q1 results. It minimizes the importance of the results.
Furthermore…..with their new ERP system these results are always up to date and available real time each day.
Why not do the right thing, the investor/shareholder friendly thing, and issue a PR with unaudited preliminary results one week after quarter end and then file the official 10q after 45days (or 90 days at year end).
That is a pretty good signal for how they did in Q1.
A few “free” things VirTra could do if they cared:
a. Announce all quarterly results within 5weeks of quarter end.
b. Provide annual guidance in January of each year.
c. Start an employee stock purchase plan for their employees.
d. Take questions from shareholders during their earnings calls.
But all the above pales in comparison to fixing their Sales Org. They also need to shut up and stop teasing “Military opportunities”. They have been coy about it for 3 years now and have delivered exactly……nothing.
Calling all activists…..
It’s like as soon as the stock blipped up he couldn’t wait to do it. Pathetic.
Looks to me like Schneid was the smart one. The rest of us bag holders…..til the week of May 15th.
I am very bullish on the stock for all the reasons I previously stated. I post what I do here to simply needle the CEO since he is a daily reader. We just finished up our Summer here in Wis, last week it 80f every day. Today 28f and 8 inches of fresh snow!
Your point is correct. He had three choices:
1. Exercise the options and pay the company $20,950 and keep the shares.
2. Do what he did, and pocket $8800.
3. Do nothing and let them expire July 1st.
#3 would have been the most stupid. And with #1, maybe he didn’t have $21k laying around. He likely did what he did because it was the easiest and he could pocket a few bucks.
I still hate it though but agree it’s mostly a nothing burger.
This is the kind of garbage that puts Ferris in the bottom tier of CEOs. Those 5000options didn’t expire til July 1st. Yet he takes his $1.76 per option now ($5.95 minus $4.19), rather than either exercising and keeping the shares or waiting til closer to July 1 when the closing price might be higher.
What a moronic move for a CEO who is supposedly bullish on the company.
This move says he does not believe the stock will be higher than $5.95 between now and July1. Even worse, it means he does not want to own another 5000shares for the long term.
Step up BOD, fire Ferris!
Aww crap, I really stuck my foot in my mouth on that one. Sorry.
I did say in the previous post that you guys were likely correct on your viewpoints.
But I do stand by the point I was trying to make. I think CEOs should not be spending any non public time with people like you or me or anyone else. When I spent a half day with Ferris, Mulcahy, Johnson a few years back, while I enjoyed it, even at the time I thought it was stupid of them to invite me. And if it’s any consolation, I consider myself to be about 7th tier relative to your 3rd tier.
Are you somehow affiliated with Gomes or Crawford or the specific podcast I was commenting about? I’m just trying to understand your reaction.
A couple other things struck me in the podcast. These guys have the same fault as other analysts in that they are not willing to criticize or call out obvious flaws in the company because they do not want to lose access. For them to say the stock went from 12 to 4 for no other reason than Ivas being delayed was irresponsible and simply incorrect.
The other thing is this….Why is Ferris even associating with these guys in any way? He is giving them special access to himself and the company. People like Gomes and Crawford are third tier or worse in terms of their expertise and influence. The type of investors they reach is not the type of investor that is good for a company like VirTra. And that in a nutshell is THE problem with Greg Johnson (now on VirTra BOD) as I’m sure he is the one who connected these sort of people with Ferris.
If they are going to get down in the mud, Ferris and Givens should be dancing with deep pocketed mature influential respected investors and not pretend eye candy influencers whose followers have the attention span (and money) of a 2 year old.
Ferris/Givens would be far better off to spend 100% of their time on increasing revenue and eps, not courting wanna-be podcasters/influencers.
It was a fun listen and I think they are right in what they said. But I was again struck by the obvious fact that they do not know any more about the company and stock than all of us here. All of their editorial comments were vague and general, but not cuz they were trying to hide or be cute, it was because they do not have any more of a clue than all the rest of us.
It doesn’t look like an open market buy since it is coded as “A” and not “P”…..but sec forms are still a bit Greek to me.
Yep, all good points. Each of us is wired differently with respect to stock investing. Whatever approach one takes, confidence and conviction are the absolute key. And for the most part, message boards are poison to most people because of the emotions involved.
One of the few things that Jim Kramer said that I agree with is "never turn a trade into an investment." I have violated this rule many times throughout the decades and it usually bit me in the backside.
Right now I love the stocks I own which is sorta stupid since it means I am likely overconfident. My biggest positions are SUP, GLT, JOB, NNBR, GFGSF, HRTG, CMLS, VTSI, FARM, DLX, GGGOF, UIS. Most of these I am underwater on right now. About the only ones I am up on are UIS, GFGSF, SUP, VTSI. But that is the nature of how I buy as I always tend to buy on the way down. In my mind, I consider every one of these 12 stocks to be very strong buys right now if one is willing to hold for a year or two.
Wrt VTSI, if it does drift significantly lower on light volume I will be a big buyer ahead of the Q1 report.
(I think the VTSI low in 2008 was about 70cents accounting for the 1:20 splits since then.)
Cool, sounds like you have found what works for you. That is half the battle.
A couple stocks that might work well for you are UIS and GLT. Both are at multi decade lows. Both are easy to trade into and out of. Both will be 5 to 10 baggers over the next several years. Both trade nicely and somewhat predictably. I own both for the long term but do swing trade each along the way.
Congrats on your trade! Will you be nimble enough to buy back before the Q1 report regardless of price? Or only if it makes a low volume dip between now and then? Or did you deploy your money elsewhere? Inquiring minds want to know.
For me, VTSI is a difficult stock to value. I will ignore all the normal stuff that is most important to me…PS, PB, EV/ebitda, debt….and ponder why it’s difficult.
1. The stock should get bonus points for the squeaky clean simple capital structure. No hidden classes of shares. No preferreds. No convertible debt.
2. It is also in a sweet spot with respect to insider ownership, not too much, but enough to matter….but not control.
3. It also has a great story, a great mission, one can be proud to have VTSI tatood on one’s body.
4. But erratic revenue and even more erratic eps cause all of us and all others much angst.
5. And then there is the performance relative to the potential. Other than Bill, is there anyone that does not think VirTra could (easily) have dependable revenue of $200mil a year just from USA municipal police depts? A lousy one thousand V300 systems would be more than $200mil. And there are well over 12,000 departments that could afford to have 1 to 10 systems each.
6. Then there is the Military hope/carrot. Is this a $50mil per year opportunity or a $250mil per year opportunity?
Enough!….this list could go on and on.
I keep buying shares when chunks become available.
I agree with you 100%. Improving/simplifying the physical design and component sourcing and assy do have to come first. Basically automating/streamlining every process from order entry to shipping.
My frustration has always been that Ferris would never admit that he did not have the “company in place” to support a great or even average producing sales Org. This was/is a two part problem in that he still has no idea what a great sales Org should deliver and no idea what a “robust in every way” product really means. It sounds like they are starting to understand the product stuff….and like you said hopefully their attention turns to fixing their Sales Org.
Then 2.5 to 1 in two months! But now turning up.
This is just my opinion…..VirTra’s head of Sales (Mulcahy) does not know what is required to consistently sell product to police departments. He does not understand the hand holding required, he does not understand that 6 to 18months of courting is often required, he doesn’t understand that a personal relationship between the PD decision maker and a smart personable VirTra sales person is required.
I think Givens understands how to sell to the Fed Government but I do not believe he knows what it takes to sell a $200,000 system to a municipality.
Ferris and Givens ARE both smart enough to know that VirTra is not close to realizing its revenue potential. And I think that (now) both are smart enough to know the Sales Org needs to be fixed. I think in the past Ferris was hesitant to fix Sales because one good salesperson could have destroyed the company because the structure of the company could not support higher sales. Now it can! So my hope is that now the Sales Org gets fixed.
A good Sales Org also ensures the company will continue to supply it with best in class products. A great VP of Sales would mean VirTras products and R&D pipeline are always #1. In other words, a great Sales VP will demand that the company supports its efforts. Sales is ThE most important function in any company.
To your point, VirTra has most all the tools and they do some required salesy things well but others are absent and they still need to hire THE SALES GUY! And by guy I mean male or female and/or man or woman or any combination thereof.
It was an encouraging day, especially compared to the carnage in small company stocks today.
But I really don’t think you want 20x todays 67,000 share volume. 100,000 to 150,000 each day would be optimum. If the volume gets too high (or too low) relative to outstanding shares, it can make share price direction and sustainability independent of company performance over the long term (months to years).
You raise a good point about many countries pouring money into building up their militaries, perhaps that is why it was mentioned in the conf call about “working on a record number of big international deals.
You are right I am getting old. Will put my money to work in your state in a year or two. Either Manasota Key or Casey Key.
Annual revenue goes over $40mil this year and doubles next year. Again….I hope.
I do enjoy your posts and your personality! Where were you wrong? In my view, Ukraine/Russia are not relevant to VirTra in any way. Also, with any tech product, none will be saleable for 20years, they require continuous improvements and evolution. You were also wrong about todays stock action, todays low volume 3.7% drop was very small compared to yesterdays high volume 38% gain. Almost 5% of the stock traded yesterday, that is a big meaningful number.
Look, I will be the first to say $4 or $5 or $6 is all about the same to me. I am not here to nibble or flip for 50%. I am here for when the company realizes its potential. I want the company at a $300mil annual revenue rate and a $1billion market cap. At the current pace I will be 173 years old when it happens….but with the right CEO and tweaks to the sales org maybe it happens in 5 to 6 years….huh
Bill, Please pick up your phone. Press the numbers 9….1…..1, in that order. When someone answers, please read them this: “I fell on my head and need help.” Good luck!
….ok, sorry to joke and I admit you have been more right than wrong over the last decade wrt VirTra results. However, stay tuned until after the Q1 report. Also, while you have been mostly correct, the reasons you state are categorically incorrect.
After a few brief forays on my part into those sorts of worlds, my conclusion is that there are not ANY, not even ONE, real person(s) behind any of the names/monikers/posters. I believe it is almost all 100% computer generated AI garbage meant to facilitate the speedy transfer of money from the honest/naive/inexperienced/greedy/stupid to the account of the Mastermind behind all of it. Not sure who it is, but the investment world would be a better place if he went away forever.
By now you know I am exaggerating a bit to make the point I am making but I truly believe this to be the case. It also would not surprise me in the least that the Mastermind is some sort of dark ops superteam within the bowels of a large legit enterprise with a household name we are all familiar.
.....ok, maybe I read too many suspense, crime thrillers
Maybe, maybe not. In my view both Twitter and Stocktwits are useless in every way. Almost every post is auto generated and lacks any level of thought or perspective.
My guess is most of the volume was from institutional buying. Likely 2 or 3 small funds. We might get some idea when the June-end institutional holdings are published. Sellers were mostly retail traders.
If there were thousands of eyes on this, they wouldn’t all disappear in a day.
“Pretty close”….ha ha, made me laugh!
I was only wrong about price, volume, and shape of the daily chart.
What an encouraging day! 470,000 in volume is astounding. I like it cuz it tells me there are enough people paying attention so that if the company can start stringing together Q after Q after Q the stock will reflect it. No real dips all day.
It would be fascinating to know who was buying today and who was selling. The path to $30 is now simple:
1. Q1 at least as good as Q4.
2. Significant insider buys.
3. Q2 over $10mil.
4. Big Military award in Sept or Oct.
5. Q3 that doesn’t suck.
The volume is ok. 1% of all shares is only 111,000 shares and it is already close to 200,000 for the day. So, since late Friday volume is nearing 3%. It all strikes me as very orderly. The one nice thing today is most of the bigger trades are buys. Single buys are taking out multiple asks. If anyone thinks any of this means anything, please do not as I'm not a technician.
The one surprise to me today was that so far there has not been any attempt to "close the gap" between Friday's close and todays open. Normally that would bother me but given all the afterhours volume Friday and premarket volume today, perhaps there really is not a practical gap that needs to be filled.
What would provide a bit of rocket fuel would be large insider buys starting on Wednesday this week when the insider blackout ends. Need them from two or more insiders. Surely a couple CEOS, CFO, and newer Directors can step up....cant they?