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I do not think this was done by AMDA ... IMO it was done by those against AMDA...and those seeking to control the trading of its shares externally...
By placing the stock with retail , that are mainly novice/newby investors, big social media users and by extension younger (whom are smart but have less experience) gives them a few significant advantages:
a) In their opinion this general niche of retail investors would be easier to bamboozle with exaggerated claims or using FUD and fear tactics.... b) this general niche of investors can be targeted instantly just by sending out three or four tweets strategically placed; c) this general niche of investors tend to think they are bullet proof -- until they are in trouble....d) many in this niche are not using their own money so they shrug off a loss; e) this niche is probably less likely to launch a lawsuit...
So those are some of the potential advantages and so IMO it looks pretty obvious why things are the way they are.....and its one of the pieces to the puzzle ....AJMHO...
do you have a question?
Expect red bleed downs as they know its the only way to accumulate: upturns, when they come, will be pops (typically)....
BTW anyone ever notice this companies, back room promoters, promoted amda to and focused with the social media crowd, stock twits etc. mobile phone younger crowd? I think this was to give them more control over the stock..its a flipper crowd... IMO this was not an accident...
Apple has had huge problems and missteps entering the market in China: I think they are a good case study and Zimmer is/should be considering. Apple tried to enter China without a strong partner and do it the American way. Zimmer is much smaller than Apple and will be more constrained to do it the Chinese way.... A strong partner, and with some technology transfer and preferable some local Chinese manufacturing will all be required IMO , to not have Apple like issues.... BTW graft is still ingrained in certain industries in China .... although it has been getting better...
Size of market by Transparency Market Research:
Posted on May 05, 2016
The global orthopedic devices market is expected to reach US$41.2 bn by the end of 2019, owing to multiple factors that are enabling it to progress at a CAGR of 4.9% from 2013 to 2019. This market was valued at US$29.2 bn in 2012, as stated in a research report published by leading market intelligence agency, Transparency Market Research. The report is titled “Orthopedic Devices Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast, 2013 - 2019.”
Of note this does not include Dental, 3-D printing and production of custom made infill components,
and new emerging markets such as Bionics and taking advantage of new technology like superior
advanced SiNi.
Very importantly, this study used a US/Europe derived CAGR rate and applied it to emerging markets and markets such as china (which are starting off of near non-existent sales. IMO this greatly errors on the low side of potential sales in China especially (but India and others also) which I expect to have very rapid growth and then in about 8 years a tapering off of growth to western levels.
Given the above, in my opinion AMDA management has been conservative (beyond belief almost) in stating the market size is $15 Billion ......
CL and Boston ... great coverage and DD recently:
The value of the tech that AMDA owns is enormous.... in the Billions. The short manipulation that has ran against amda has been relentless ... I wonder why... the hugely TRANSFORMATIONAL TECH, in many different large and rapidly growing sub-sectors, mostly (but not all) within the medical implant medical sector has consequence for several large well know companies.... It is highly likely that several (or possibly one) of these companies has partially financially fuelled the negative campaign ... and financial players have jumped on this short focused gravy train of what has been almost guaranteed profits for them...Recently, accumulators have added to this negative price volatility with their own form of creating liquidity.... Elephants (who know the massive value of the tech) do not slip into the pool easily without creating waves...and they know how to do due diligence and they know how to buy...
The dwindling debt and the return to more typical financing offerings (i.e. fixed price warrants in the last offering) are a good indication that the chaos on the financial side (which appears to have been largely orchestrated externally through "implants" who have since departed) is ending...
The massive value of the tech keeps marching forward, and now the financial structure is stabilizing....IMO AMDA is likely one of the top few most mispriced companies that are listed... Interesting times ahead ....
.........:--))........
Thanks for keeping it real scott .... the dangers can not be overlooked....
IMO this is major news .... three additional cns indications showing good preclinicals with different groups running .... Firstly, avxl is very experienced at using animal studies with their compound ... experience is very beneficial in setting these up and to look for a signal... With so much, and so varied, and from so many different operating groups, the positive preclinical data is almost as powerful as what I call the "da" moment ... with the P300 signal .... but to each his own ....
Trading seemed positive but honestly the trading, like the stock price and current revenues, has very little meaning in the bigger picture with amda.... What I liked more than the trading friday was the Tut reports... Some of the names acquiring have a lot of money to finance due diligence...I will leave it at that, as sometimes certain info (even if positive) is best not discussed too much.... A caveat is that I am expecting a lot of volatility ... nothing unusual to this ticker....and all just opinion of course.
Those crumbs smelled like German sour dough rye --Rokbrud...
...... ......
Good point ... hoping avxl heavily factors in, how good the moral compass is, of any potential partner
they consider --- i.e. how quick and with conviction they will bring the treatment to market... IMO this needs to be cut in stone, in the contract, or all rights fall be to avxl.
Stock price and current revenues a smokescreen to value:
They distract from the value of the technology . Current sales are not more than test marketing and proving the quality of amda product -- the product data is a useful building block, and is what is valuable from this activity, but not the actual sales revenue figures. Especially considering the PEEK boys have tried to slow amda sales down making sales numbers even more irrelevant ...Anyways, that is likely to be expected..
Lets look at the dental implant segment -- about $5 Billion. This segment may be easier to ramp up since outside of traditional hospitals, and a market that focuses on the strength/weight characteristics as well as anti microbial qualities.... Seems like a pretty attractive segment well suited to advanced SiNi.. If amda could get just 20% of this segment, this would justify approximately a $2 Billion dollar market cap (value) alone.. and remember thats a very small slice out of the overall implant market of $125 Billion.... The shocker is that AMDA second gen SiNi tech should be able to dominate with good management in this much larger market...
The value is all the in the tech..... current stock price and current rev numbers are a side show...
Just dental alone is projected to be around $5 Billion Sales.... why are you just looking at ceramic --- do you not think we have the tech to take over Peek? The global implant market should be , with dental, coatings, and other tech around $125 Billion -- joints, bones and all included... I think especially the second gen SiNi in the right management hands, will wipe out peek in many places...
Whats tech that could dominate a 125B (or 0.125 Trillion) worth? Thats why I say the tech is almost priceless, and thats why I say $2 B is conservative and heavily discounted for risk.....
$2 B is actually fairly conservative -- it could be several times that .... Firstly, forget about current revenues, as they are merely a part of the distraction (or illusion if you are even more skeptical) -- aside from the distraction effect, current revenues as far as valuing amda are almost meaningless ...
With advanced technology, in a fast growing medical segment, there is always a big premium for the leader; and valuations are very forward looking and typically focus on the size of the overall markets served in aggregate. Ill give a realistic formula for AMDA...
PV = (Worldwide implant market X 0.30 (penetration rate)) x 2.0 (sales multiple for tech leader)
all discounted back 5 years using a 15% time/risk discount rate...
PV = Present Value in todays dollars
Implant Market figures are gross sales numbers...
(take current figures and add 25% to allow for growth with 2nd gen and 3D printing and aging of population etc)
Assumes 5 years to penetrate market
Are we sitting on a $2 Billion dollar co.
with AMDA here; and hood winked (or more accurately psychologically manhandled over a lengthy time) into thinking AMDA is a pile of rubble.... The AMDA tech is almost priceless and behind the scenes this is well known .....
Well said ... and it is somewhat comparable to the fake lawsuits.... they were all prepared in advance and could be released whenever they wanted (about 10 of them I think); and every time there was an announcement of a new lawsuit (fake) the stock would drop 5% to 20% approx.....this equates to a big drop over all lawsuits combined.... and then recently when all fake lawsuits were dismissed and the stock was flat -- a complete yawner...how does that work?
do not worry .... it means you can short more and at higher prices , with the extra buying coming in .... if its unwarranted buying then keep it secret as it should benefit you....bodes well for you,,,,
FWIW Japanese companies are most honourable.... and you can trust them....I know as I have had great success with Japanese companies and know how they work and think ...
Important post ..... and management has to have their "BS radar" set to hyper sensitive setting since when they are talking with any potential partners, they will ALL promise the world, but yet set up terms to delay , delay, delay while they gather information and try to work around.... Do not let them slow your path to market....
CL..yes your comparison to bio is valid ... when you have leading edge tech (second gen SINi, 3d printing ams, etc), with a very very supportive demographic, its multiple should be same or more than bio companies .... This stock has around a $3.00 value just off of the tax loss carry forwards alone...and then add on the reck .... FWIW a BO less than $10 isn will make management huge targets for lawsuits.... Even the knowledgeable longs here, have been lulled into a abnormal low valuation of amda ... it is human psychology which is weakened over time by continuous bashing .... even the bashers start to believe their own BS....ask yourself, what would amda be worth as a new IPO ....
If the bashing has been done just so someone can steal the tech , I think there will be many surprises to the new buyers.... and to Sonny... man up for a change...
New perspective for real longs:...
The FUD spreading (up a lot today) and recommending to place stop losses (and other tactics such as daily bleeds) is not going to let up until novice and weaker retail are nearly all completely stripped out of this stock....and talk on this board of owning a many shares will not help also imo as it just baits them... Anyways, so in a sense, its almost better that the game continue on and as quick as possible (since it is inevitable apparently anyways), as it seems currently there is still much too much raw meat available to tempt this behaviour (retail ownership may be 50 % but just guessing).... Also in this same way its seems better we get no publicity or reduced since this just seems to attract weak novice shareholders which just feeds the system..... We are forced to let the sharks feed (and maybe even direct them to the weak prey) ...and when they are full they will leave...
Hopefully they can agree on a realistic and honest offer to partner on MS alone.... They are pretty beaten up in their own trials, and with a new president on top of that, I would be surprised if a bigger deal is to be had with them ....I hope I am wrong though....
If AVXL is even looking for a big deal now, I think they will have better success with one of the titans in pharma, or an under the radar Gilead type with a min. of $10 B to spend (and not puck shy from its own in house work, trusting its own analysis, and not heavily connected to wall street lower levels)....
Management only has so much time to spend on discussions with those who they could work with; and so I hope they are good at optimizing choices with their scarce time...
"Radicava is what's known as a free radical scavenger. It appears to react with nerve-damaging compounds generated as part of the disease process" ...... looks like another good combo to test 273 with .... (i.e. eliminate some of those nerve damaging compounds before hand)... Mitsubishi Tanabe is another huge Japanese pharma company in the CNS space... hopefully they are also on the rolodex at avxl ....
avxl seems to agree with adjunct theory:
judging from patent application..... exciting.
maybe because they have lots of money.......
Just guessing, but maybe in Greece, Germany, Israel, Aust. or one of the other countries they have operated in, may have different rules for testing drugs? I have long thought that this is likely and the implications, if correct, are large.....
good find ...look on last page which lists supporters:
Anavex (we know these guys),
Eisei (they manufacture aracept in japan),
Pfizer (original aracept co.),
Interesting combination since all three are involved in aracept... I hope they have time to have a nice chat...
Respect your opinion but IMO Pharma is too smart to sit and wait for further trial studies...
the evidence is there now .... even the collection of animal studies is reason enough ... read falconers discussion on murine studies (I think he has it accurate), and do not believe the downplaying about "just mice studies" , pharma knows you do not get that much confirming animal studies without the real deal and remember at a microscopic level the firing of the animal neuron is identical to a human neuron (Dr. V was a smart man) .... and that is just animal studies, in human the P300 alone (and never before) is like flashing current "DA" ya I think we have something here doc..... If CNS pharma is not all over this now behind the scenes I would be very surprised... The long community here know what here, we have, would pharma not...
Did the stock go up on:
-removing all manipulative law suits,
-any trial results
-the mta partnership
-the poison pill
-the new fda hire
-now patent news
-etc....
To me it is pretty obvious that the beat down is keeping new investors out largely , but also knowledgeable current shareholders do not have capacity for new buying.... the intrinsic value keeps skyrocketing with avxl while leaving actual price behind... when it re-aligns it will be quick IMO....
Lastly it also looks to me like they keep extra liquidity ready and warehoused, for any positive news, and will release what ever is enough to accomplish their objective...
whats 20 years more of protection worth? of multiple CNS....and the Homeostasis platform...
This is likely transformational news but needs clarifying the patent details...
"Once the patent is secure it will be raining good news. " Attilathehunt ...
The last time I heard him discuss this subject he said something like...usually companies need partners to distribute drugs like 273.... I took this to mean avxl will not really be looking for a partner until after phase 3 .....and I agree that at that point a partner might get 5%ish of revenues for funding manufacturing and distribution .... instead of a partnership before a phase 3 trials which take a big wack of the revenues typically....
I hope they can do a side deal with the MTA partner on MS alone though... With a new president running their company I doubt they are able to make the extra large investment that would be required to take over all indications. That is understandable IMO .... a new president , in most companies, typically acts pretty conservative with funds but is aggressive in strategy.... Except for the MS indication, its likely MUCH MUCH better to continue on alone with planned trials IMO....
Excellent thinking Bourban and Raja: EOM...
I agree about the adjunct theory potential:
I mentioned this also before , and was given a SMH by you know who, but the potential is very real with this, and if the homeostasis theory continues to prove out, I think this almost surely follows, IMO. We know the sigma receptors are located throughout the body on most if not all organs. Most disease occurs in the organs, and most drugs target the organs.... I do not see how bringing cell functioning back to the healthy range with 273, in the targeted organ of a given drug used in combination, would not help that treatment efficacy ....
well said .... a genius move and highly significant ... if investors were not worn out so bad this would be up 30% on this news....
CELL HEALTH ^ = YOUNGER ^...
My hypothesis is that it is known that metabolism decreases with age (and I equate that to general cell health dropping); and if 273 improves cell health and homeostasis it looks to me like this is the closest thing ever to an anti-aging drug; and even a drug to partially reverse aging.... Add in to that the very possible preventative benefits as a deffense against various aliments , including dementia, and all, over 40ish, could very possibly be taking 273 ,,,,, Maybe they should also be checking patients for improved skin complexions..
Aggressive sale of marketing territories:
With the 273 12 month data, and the 15 month data in the back pocket, (and Rett, MS, PD, Insomnia, combo use, and other more speculative targets) it is time to start aggressively to sell exclusive marketing areas (countries or regions) for 273 ..... These can be mostly contingent on P3 results but contain 15% to 20% upfront money.... This could finance any future needs (371 etc) of the company and even be used to buy back shares (keep control of votes and cut LPC loose) but also would generate needed positive awareness for avxl .....to counter act the negative side working so hard out there.... In the environment where confidentiality of data may be critical something else needs to be done proactively (and have this moving along with purpose, and independent of any partnership talks which might just be attempts to delay things so the negative attach can proceed) to help protect the company.....