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I am a simple man and have had some success in investing over the years. I have been in a number of businesses working for someone else as well as in my own businesses with varying degrees of success. To say that NWBO and its management are an extreme outlier in my experience is stretching euphemism. This whole deal with LP appears to be gross self dealing and aggrandizement with a rubber stamping BOD. I say "appears" because I admit I don't have all the facts. Let me state what I do know.
I am an accredited investor and have thus far participated in two funding deals, the latest being the April 2, 2020 raise. Essentially, I was offered extending my soon to be expiring warrants in return for buying stock from the company with the kicker that my warrants would be extended for one year and the strike price would be reduced from $0.30 to $0.22. Essentially I was lucky in that this extension did not cost me any money. I simply used the market place to fund my deal and of course NWBO. In terms of number of shares were concerned, I had the same number as I did before the deal. About the same cash position too including broker's fee for the transfer as I did before. The only change was that I got an additional year on my warrants with a reduced strike price. Of course, this involved risk but luckily I ended up with free extended/reduced exercise price warrants. So in a sense, I should not be upset about Linda's deal......but I am.
When I was offered this deal, I asked if there were other possibilities. There were none except how much funding I could put up which would then dictate what I would receive in return. I had some back and forth negotiations and I finally got the deal that sealed it for me. I was never offered the LP deal. Why? I don't know of any other accredited investor who was offered a similar deal. Would I have taken it? Yes, in a heartbeat.
Essentially, LP got her expiring warrants, just like me, extended. However, she got them extended for 3 years and not one year like me and other accredited investors. In my deal, I actually transferred ascertainable value-- cash--in return for extension. What value did LP transfer? Restrictions on exercising her extended ( and other??) warrants for 6 months and then obtaining 2 and 1/2 years exercise period, essentially an extension of 3 years. Giving up the right to exercise warrants for 6 months has very questionable value and is definitely not commensurate with the extension she obtained. She gave no ascertainable value like the rest of the accredited investors. Bottom line, at least in my view, is that she gave up very little if anything with such a restriction. Who knows what the value of even stellar TLD is wrt market considerations. How powerful are the dark forces? The market may not reflect "stellar" value based just on TLD. How do we know that TLD will be released within the 6 month period? Because she gave guidance?
The market maybe waiting for approval or even commercialization before assigning "stellar" value. The money to be made is greater in anticipation of approvals after TLD is released. With essentially 3 year warrants, LP has a lot of time to obtain stellar" value for her warrants. In my view, the 6 month exercise restriction is complete BS and a disgrace especially insofar as other accredited investors are concerned. The BOD should be ashamed of themselves, rubber stamping a deal like this. Aren't they supposed to protect the interests of ALL the owners?
Further, besides not extending such a deal to other investors, NWBO at the very least did not explain why LP and no one else was entitled to such an essentially "risk less" deal. What makes LP so special that she can get extensions on her expired( bad bet ) warrants for free? Six month restriction? Gimme a break. Does a hopeful virtual ASM reward her with this special deal? NWBO will still need funding especially during the 6 months restrictive period. More dilution is definitely going to put the lid on any share appreciation even if TLD is released during this time period.
In my view, LP and, indeed, all NWBO management should avoid even the appearance of favored, greedy self dealing aggrandizement. This sure looks like it. It is difficult to give LP the benefit of the doubt without coming clean on this. Investors need more transparency but this latest "event" promises only more of the same. What a shame. I, for one, find it difficult to understand how even the most ardent apologists for NWBO management can countenance something like this. End of rant.
I participated in the latest round of financing and got my warrants extended. In the docs with the company there is no restriction until Nov. 2020 on exercising the warrants at least insofar as my warrants are concerned.
I do not recall that LL ever said anything about methylated MES. As I recall, she and Robert Prins found that the vaccine works very well wrt to MES because it is more immunogenic. The vaccine had little to no effect on pro neural. Methylation state was not mentioned.
Like a number of PhDs who have foregone research/work in their specialty industry for the greener pastures of the investment community, Rago is, plain and simple, an analyst. He may have more credibility due to his academic credentials and prior work history and accordingly, he may have a decided edge in understanding the science and whether it is valid and promising. Accordingly, he is paid by Bigger just like any analyst is paid by an investment institution.
My feeling is that Rago evaluated NWBO/science and told Bigger.....look no guarantees but this looks promising. I would recommend it. Rago ain't stupid. He is compensated in part by the calls he makes. He is not going to knowingly recommend a dog. He is being paid to keep an eye on NWBO. As a professional credentialed analyst, he is not going to knowingly write up fluff to protect Bigger's (and his) investment. If he finds something amiss, like perhaps Duffy may have, he is going to cut his loses short. The general retail holder may not know it until too late but he be gone like Chuck Berry's air-mobile. If you don't hear from him/Bigger, that's a hint.
Bottom line, it is a good bet that Rago really believes in NWBO and writes accordingly in favor of his thesis because that's where his facts and perspectives lead him. JMHO.
Let's just say that if NWBO gets approval from the FDA, Mr. Black has played a part in insuring a level playing field. There are various constituencies within any government agency and some of these constituencies need to be "persuaded" for lack of a better term to pursue an unbiased direction. All NWBO wants is a fair shot in evaluating the results and explanations they present---before any RA including the FDA.
Jerry:
NWBO will not explain what was going on behind the hold. Trust me, there is a very good reason for silence. Let's just say that there is now a level playing field.
According to my sources fact unless my sources are fiction.
The thought makes sense.
Going forward, LG is pretty confident that TLD will be announced in early July. Data lock should happen on or about end of May and then the external parties do the calculations on the unblinded data which should take a couple of weeks and then NWBO and its experts will look at this out put and prepare for presentation. That should take about three weeks. So we are in the first week of July or thereabouts.
LG said that the UK RA, I believe it is the NHRA, is ready to accelerate approvals, depending of upon results of the trial. The approval process usually takes about 13-14 months, however, NWBO is one of only three companies that have been approved for accelerated treatment and that should take about 3-4 months. It is a very good bet that NWBO could get approvals from the UK comfortably within this year. The EU countries plus Canada should follow closely thereafter. The foregoing is according to LG from a recent conversation.
The FDA will have no choice but to approve reasonably shortly thereafter. There are a number of reasons to which I am privy but will not share on this MB.
it all comes down to the results. If good, approvals follow relatively quickly. The results are expected to be remarkable. Yes, they are looking at a number of markers, i.e., methylation status, IDH, etc., however, LG said that remarkably the vaccine works across the spectrum and he is privy to a lot more info than we are. Note that Dr. Ashkans said exactly the same thing and that the vaccine should be made available to all.
LG and the NWBO management team have been maligned and their reputation impugned. LG knows this. As far as I am concerned, I believe that this ASM did much to rebuild their credibility. Although I was disappointed about not having TLD, I think they otherwise did an excellent job at the ASM--- credible, reasonable and confident. LG was true to his word. A PR was released contemporaneously with the start of the ASM. There is definitely light at the end of this long tunnel. There is a solid basis for hope that indeed 2020 may be NWBO's year.
Here is updated info from LG:
1. When they announced the ASM for April 18, they were on track to announce Datalock and TLD announcement was slated for ASCO. That was the gist of "interesting"..
2. With the intervention of COVID, they lost about two months. Through work-a rounds they were able to make up some time.
3. Data-lock is planned for end of May. At data lock the trial will be unblinded at the same time. That is what LG said. The data will be analyzed by the statisticians and other external parties for 2 weeks and then turned over to NWBO. NWBO will do checking and carefully go over the data and plan for best preparation for TLD announcement. They will consult with the SAB and their own consultants and this will take three weeks. The whole presentation and announcement should be available by the end of the first week of July, 2020. They will not wait to announce at a conference, etc. They can make the TLD announcement at a Press Conference and hold a CC.
4. LG does not believe this schedule is too aggressive. Unless there is an unforeseen intervening event, LG is confident that this guideline will be met. He understands that management credibility and reputation is non-existent but promised from now on more transparency. If anything materially changes, they will keep shareholders updated.
FWIW.
Yes, he did. He also said a PR would be coming. Not a string but one big PR because he felt piecemeal PRs could be more easily attacked as opposed to one big blast.
It does look like there will be no PR prior to the ASM. So we will need to see what transpires at this so-called interesting ASM. It will be interesting to see what NWBO management thinks is interesting without announcing TLD.
Meirluc:
You are not wrong. He told me there would be a PR. If it does not come, Les either lied to me or something intervened and changed the timing of the PR. In any case, I am giving him and LP the benefit of the doubt. I will wait until after the ASM. If it is not "interesting" and an essentially stay tuned message, management has lost all credibility. Thereafter, nothing they say will be believable. They will have lost my, and indeed many investors' trust. Needless to say, the SP will be taken to the woodshed. Going forward, no friendly investors and even good news will be doubted and attacked. IR will no longer be necessary. What use is the function if there is no credibility? Even the most ardent apologists for NWBO management will find it difficult to defend them.
Really? How do you know?
Poor Man:
In a recent discussion, I expressed my concerns of not following through on an "interesting" ASM. I warned him about bait and switching investors on the April 3 offering and then coming up with nada. I told him that nobody cares about Sawston, compassionate revenues, and especially guideline timelines because they never happen. Never happening is as certain as death and taxes. Further, if they do give timelines, why now? What happened to his catching the shorts off guard? If he did give guidelines, they would not be believed and he would be doing the exact opposite of his silence strategy.
The only interesting thing is top line. Nobody wants to hear how close you are. Nobody wants to hear you are on the three inch line. Management put themselves in a box. Shareholders have been led on. The two month ASM lead time and the interesting meeting, In all investors' minds, the only thing of real interest is top line. He would need to be woefully dense if he did not realize that. To invite shareholders to come to the ASM and giving 2 months lead time can only mean something important. What could be more important than top line? Without it, nothing else happens. It is the gate opener. If Les thinks management can skate around this, he is more than naive. IMO, if management can't deliver the goods, postpone the ASM, until you can. If nothing is delivered, all credibility in management is lost, the SP will hit single digits and you can forget "friendly" investors. You can't burn your friends all of the time. He thanked me for my insights as if they weren't obvious.
Stay tuned.
If there is a PR, it will probably be released AH on Friday before the ASM.
However, I do not expect much from this ASM unless they release top line. The overwhelming odds are that top line will not be announced then.
Management will not give any clear guidance as to when top line will be released. Wrt to SAP finalization and data lock, they will probably say that it should happen soon perhaps in a couple of weeks. WRT top line, due to the amount of data collected and the complexity of the SAP--note that it is as big as a telephone book--this may be a multi-month process depending upon what the unveiled results are.
They will talk about Sawston readiness and the friendly regulatory environment in the UK again without any specific guidance. The fact that they have been preparing manufacturing facilities demonstrates their confidence in the results and top line hopefully will confirm this confidence. They will talk about compassionate use in the UK and the revenues they can expect in a 12-18 month period which could mitigate, to some extent, their funding requirements. They will express their confidence that top line will certainly, unless there are unforeseen circumstances such as COVID, be released during 2020 and hopefully sooner rather than later. That will be the extent of their "guidance" and what is "interesting" . "We are closer than ever so stay tuned". They will not provide any specific information concerning, for example, how many are still alive. That will be deferred to unblinded results.
They will not provide any specific guidance because they want to catch the nefarious forces off guard. They are looking for a big squeeze. This is a theme which Les has consistently talked about and of course used as an excuse for lack of specific guidance. Big squeeze depends on results announcement which they want the shorts to keep guessing.
Essentially, the ASM will be a non-event asking for a bit more patience since they are almost, but not quite, there. No doubt accredited investors who participated in the April 3 funding round will be roundly disappointed having been told that the ASM will be very interesting and exciting only to see, once again, a bait and switch. Especially, if the market punishes the SP and investors realize they could have purchased a lot more shares at significantly lower prices than the April 3 offering. I hope I am wrong but a gut feeling.
My point was that Duffy did not leave because he found something wrong or unsettling about the science or trial. Yes, he is knowledgeable and qualified but I doubt very much that he found something that the other multitude of experts did not. He left for other reasons. What they are are speculations.
Personally, I don't buy into the speculation that Duffy was doing DD for Merck as an employee of NWBO. It is possible, but to me highly unlikely. The whole thing is weird but of one thing I am sure. The reason will not be revealed at the ASM even though it is interesting.
Recent.
In thinking about Duffy's comings and goings, it is simple to think that NWBO was not the opportunity he thought. That during his employment, he found something amiss or unsettling enough to cause him to re-think his jump to NWBO.
However, I doubt very much that this had anything to do with the science or that the trial failed or was even mediocre in anyway. It is difficult to believe that Duffy found something untoward wrt the science whereas the SAB, principal investigators, authors of the JTM article were all in the dark and did not know or did but have been hiding it. His understanding and experience with DC VAX during his 7 months was certainly not up to the level of these experts who worked with it everyday. The odds that his departure had anything to do with speculated shortcomings in the trial are virtually nil IMHO.
Les is more.
Thanks, pretty much corroborates my points. The story did not come out after three or four months, PRs or otherwise.
I recall that JJ made the statement in connection with a question about a possible buy-out/partnership. JJ responded that he had experience in the merger acquisition field and felt that it was premature and that such activity would be much more appropriate in an environment where the SP was higher. Indeed he did say that the story should be told better and that in the following 3-4 months we would be seeing a string of PRs in that connection.
Skitahoe:
Les was talking about a date for announcement not necessarily at an ASCO venue. At the time he communicated this to me, he already knew that ASCO would not take place in person and I understood that ASCO was cancelled. He did not promise that the announcement would take place on that date but that it was one that they had aimed for. The announcement could take place earlier or later, most likely in first half 2020 and definitely in 2020. So the date is not in stone but announcement in first half 2020 seems more likely. This may somehow support statements made by DI that, at least to some extent, the timing of TLD announcement is not entirely within NWBO's control. To be sure, there is wiggle room. However, they are under extreme pressure to make the announcement before too long. It is entirely possible that at the time LP made her invitation to an interesting ASM, she felt that 2 months would be enough of a cushion to announce something "interesting". It may be that something slipped but LP nevertheless decided to go forward with the ASM rather than postponing it. Hence, a distinct possibility of more of the same---stay tuned. However, IMHO, I think it is clear that she will need to say much more than just stay tuned. The recent financing virtually assures that. Investors don't like to be led on and then be disappointed after investment by a "stay tuned nothing burger" ASM.
Happy:
I agree with you. Certain statements by both DI and Les lead me to believe that data lock will not have happened by ASM and that certainly TLD will not be announced then.
Les has admitted to me that they were aiming for ASCO to announce TLD. He allowed that it could happen earlier( to coincide with a statement DI made to a MB member sometime mid-May which DI later said was a misunderstanding). What Les emphatically said was that TLD would definitely happen in 2020 and rather in the first half. That brings us to ASCO and the month of June.
Les also said that there would be a PR before the ASM and not a string. He said better to unload one strong PR rather than piecemeal where easier to attack and dilute the messages given over spread out PRs. He did say that TLD would be addressed and status explained. He did not say timeline with stated dates. Nothing specific.
I warned Les that the ASM would be a complete failure if TLD were not addressed and assuming that it will be that it does not amount to an......almost there, we are on the three inch line, stay tuned. Interesting has to do with top line. That is all investors at this point are interested in. Enough time has passed. Time to announce results. Anything else would be disingenuously interesting and highly discouraging to most investors including myself. Les said that anything NWBO does is interesting, perhaps tongue in cheek. I told him to stop the BS. It was LP that said the ASM would be interesting and gave two months notice so that shareholders could make plans to attend. Les himself said it would be"very" interesting and "very exciting". It would be highly misleading and disingenuous to lead investors on and then present something "interesting" such as in Linda's relative dieting success. Interesting yes. Disingenuous? Yes. But who gives a fuck. It is time to recognize the elephant in the room. Ignoring it or telling us one more time we are nearly there, stay tuned, you are lucky the ASM is virtual. But you will kill all credibility real time. Just be careful.. If you can't deliver something really interesting....and you know what I mean....better to call off the ASM with a COVID excuse. Non-delivery of "interesting" puts management on a ventilator with little real chance of survival. Just a word to the wise. Remember last year, the ASM in retrospect turned out to be BS. You had a director telling us that a string of PRS would be released in 3-4 months such as to raise the SP. Over a year later and nada. You don't need another failed ASM which many predict will be a nothing burger. When confronted with LP's invitation, DI allegedly responded that he always tells investors to attend annual meetings. If true, disingenuous? You bet and big time. Please do not disappoint.
We will see next Saturday. Stay tuned.
I used to think the same about Mr. Black and wondered what his value is to NWBO. Upon information and belief, I think Mr. Black may be the most important of any of the board members and because of his intel has assured that NWBO will be treated fairly and with reasonable dispatch by the FDA.
The singular and most important goal for NWBO is to obtain regulatory approvals. And...the most important agency is NWBO's own national agency, the FDA.
Upon information and belief, the hold and its length of imposition was due to unsavory elements within the FDA and was finally lifted when higher management eschalons were confronted with Intel/evidence of corruption, conspiracies and illegal actions flowing therefrom by Mr. Black and his operatives. NWBO reached an agreement with the agency that it would be treated fairly and impartially and with reasonable expedition. The top management of the FDA wanted to avoid a scandal and NWBO wanted assurances that its application would be treated strictly on its merits. As part of a win-win compromise, the FDA agreed to re-examine its decisional criteria with respect to novel therapeutic approaches with substantial input from NWBO and NWBO modified its SAP in accordance with the new and much more flexible guidelines.
While NWBO has a certain leverage wrt the FDA, it is important that they show undeniable results that minimize if not eliminate any questions and, accordingly, NWBO is double and even triple checking the data and its accuracy and making sure that it has all the necessary data collected before data lock. NWBO wants to avoid, at all costs, regulatory delays in approvals such as, for example, a CRL which in itself could cause considerable delays and even engender a phase IV trial, not to mention the severe impact upon the SP and ithe ability to obtain favorable financing.
If the foregoing is a roughly accurate broad picture of what has transpired, Mr. Black has much more than earned his keep. We may never know the full story due to the players involved but can thank Mr. Black for his crucial,role in helping NWBO across the goal line.
In any event, I think Mr. Black has played and is playing a very important but very clandestine role in assuring to all extents possible NWBO' obtaining FDA approvals. Les has mentioned several times that NWBO's Intel is very good and not to sell Cofer Black short. I think there is something to that. Just a thought FWIW.
Laser:
IMHO the ONLY relevant question is: what is the fucking TLD?
I don't give a crap about anything else. Without TLD, you can take Sawston, compassionate use and all the other "interesting" questions and shove them. With all due respect to Senti and Ike. Enough shucking n' jiving and giving the "interesting" run around. Last year was the last of my patience--with Linda and Les. And with that good for nothing BOD. Jerry "the Sage" Jasinowski....string of PRs within the next three or four months that should serve to elevate the SP to place NWBO in a more acquisitions orientated environment....Wha' happened Jerry? WTF?
C'mon. The only thing interesting that would give a two month timeline to the ASM is TLD and LP/LG know it. If they essentially say we are on the three inch line, just stay tuned, we will get there, I would believe Scotty and AF were right all along and what a dope I was for drinking the kool aid.
Investors have a right to know now what exactly is going on with TLD. It is the ONLY question that is interesting. Period.
Cherry Tree:
As my previous posts wrt to Kevin Duffy's departure have suggested, the simplest explanation is that the promise of NWBO's technology and the blinded data that he originally saw somehow fell short and he was disappointed enough to seek another employment opportunity. Indeed, COVID and the ensuing economic catastrophy only added to the risks associated with a developmental no-commercial product virtual start-up.
What NWBO offered was a paradigm changing product platform that would revolutionize the solid tumor world and perhaps the fundamental manner by which medical science would treat all disease. Truly a grand vision he undoubtedly originally embraced but began to have serious mis-givings about during the course of his work. To be sure, the 69 authors or so did not have a similar perspective because they were not employed by or in the company. He may have been closer to what was going on than the SAB because of his "insider" status. He found something that must have turned him off. At the moment we do not know what it is.
We know that he made contributions to the SAP. In order to do so, in his due diligence in the course of his job with NWBO in order to make important contributions in the drafting of the SAP, he almost certainly came across a lot of data and information not available to him from the outside. Something fell short and he elected to bail. This does not necessarily mean that the trial was a failure and the telephone book sized SAP a last ditch attempt to save an otherwise tottering trial. However during the course of his work with NWBO, he increasingly found things were not as splendid as he thought.
Of course, Dr. Duffy may have been a plant, with or without LP's knowledge, to do DD first hand on behalf of Merck which company was and is in the process of expanding its oncology business and looking at promising prospects. But I rather doubt that Merck (and NWBO) would engage in a "employee based stratagem" to somehow mask the reality of DD and then possibly resulting in a partnership or even eventual buy-out. It's possible, but in my gut I just don't buy it. Too complicated and the secret would be out anyway with his return or at least there would be a lot of speculation about it.. I just don't buy it.
I think that Dr. Duffy has been around the block a few times at his age and experience. He has an MBA in addition to his PhD. We know he was well thought of by his former and now once again current employer. They took him back despite his "disloyalty". I doubt very much that Dr. Duffy would leave Merck for NWBO and not negotiate a lot of "get rich" options. Not to do so would be just plain crazy.. You jump to a developmental virtual start up because you strongly believe in its product platform and you can become very wealthy upon success. You don't stay 6 or 7 months and then go back to your old company for an offer that could not be refused. That sounds like a fake cover story to me. What probably happened was that Duffy realized with what he came to know, that riches, if ever, were certainly not around the corner. With COVID and the impending economic difficulties, in addition to the less than splendid NWBO prospects, Duffy viewed his return to Merck as a "safe harbor" employment especially if getting rich prospects at NWBO were now significantly diminished.
I would bet that if TLD is not announced at the ASM or shortly thereafter, the foregoing Duffy departure scenario may, indeed, ring true. In fact, DI's latest information that timelines are not within NWBO's control is a hint that they are kicking the TLD can further down the road and this gives more support to the foregoing scenario.
I think the primary question of:
What is the f**king TLD.....is the only relevant question. All the other questions hinge on TLD. Without it and undeniable results as Les has said in justification of the time it is taking to get to the point of unblinding such questions are just rock n' roll. JMHO.
It is a parable that hopefully turns out to be a fable.
But.........the cover story of an offer that could not be refused may have a kernel to ft truth to it but it is by far not the whole story.
Former Merck boss: Hi Kev, just calling to see how you are doing? Word is out that you are looking for a new job? What's up buddy?
Duffy: Yeah, well, honestly things did not work out as I had originally figured. And it really looked so good, the JTM and the people on the SAB, you know. But then you can't really know exactly what's going on till you look under the covers.
Merck: OK, so what's wrong? Can I help?
Duffy : Gee thanks but I shouldn't really be saying anything.
Merck: C'mon ole buddy, this is your big bro talking to you as a friend. You know I didn't want you to leave.
Duffy: Yeah, I know but I thought this was my chance to make it big and move on down to Key Biscayne and get that 35 foot fishing boat I always dreamed about. Fishing everyday and out of the rat race. That's what I thought but those dreams are on hold. Drat!
Merck: Well it can't be that bad. Like you said, all these top guys.....
Duffy: You would think but working on that SAP just opened Pandora's box on the whole trial. You might say they are pioneering new criteria with this new SAP which is the size of a telephone book. Well, when you get into the weeds with all the data they accumulated and you cannot get because you are on the outside, you really begin to understand why they could not go with the original SAP. I tried to help them as best I could but it is really disappointing. It's really unsettling and frankly, the ship is taking on water. Look, the management team is being really positive but there are leaks. You know that Dr. Bosch? Real smart guy and nice too. When I was up in Bethesda for are meeting with Linda, we had dinner together and he got a little tight. Confided in me. You know he is going back to the Netherlands. Said something about consulting and teaching at the University of Rotterdam. Huh? He said he wanted to move back but they persuaded him to stay on by giving him a raise and letting him work out of an office in Amsterdam. He said something about EU liaison and working with the NHRA in the UK. But he said plenty of time for other activities.
Merck: Gee buddy it does not look too good. You know what? We were thinking of doing something with them but you saved me a lot of grief. Anyway, don't worry. mums the word. Look, Kev, we go back a ways and I totally understand that you needed to take a chance. At your age smart thing to do. I did it too. No disloyalty but you gotta try things. Sometimes they work sometimes they don't. But good on you, you tried. Hey, Kev, come on back we need you. Look you can still stay down in Weston. It is a slick deal. And I will get you some more money because you saved me from a possible big mistake. We have each other's back. Whaddaya say?
Duffy: You made me an offer I just can't refuse. Why don't you come down and stay at my place? We can sign the deal and then go fishing in the Bahamas for a couple of days.
Merck: You got it bro. See ya in two.
GGB:
Indeed, jumping to a company like NWBO would require enticements such as golden handcuffs especially to persuade someone of Duffy's stature to leave his cozy and remunerative nest at Merck. If he did not have golden handcuffs, he was otherwise crazy, IMHO, or something else along your lines.
I don't know what the reporting requirements for stock etc are as I am not an SEC lawyer. However, none of us have seen his agreement or know what his compensation arrangements are. Frankly, I don't see that Merck and Duffy conspired in a complicated stratagem to get Duffy hired for DD purposes. It is possible but in my view highly unlikely. More probable would be that LP assented. But if she did, why go through the subterfuge of hiring Duffy knowing he would go back and knowing that any deal with Merck would not be guaranteed? Did LP pay for Duffy's DD on behalf of Merck as an employee? Or did Merck reimburse NWBO? It gets complicated and at the end the employment raises more doubts than ever. Rather, it would have been easier to have Duffy silently sit down and allow him to do his DD and in exchange solicit his contribution on the SAP also as a vehicle in helping him develop DD through the SAP contribution process. They could have kept this under wraps and nobody would be the wiser. Or if there were a leak, it would be positive since big P is supposedly interested enough to be sniffing around NWBO offices. i don't think you need to go the employment route to accomplish the DD objective if LP were on board. To do so in secret so quite another thing and could be interpreted as a fraud vehicle to steal valuable IP. Hence, I think it unlikely and LP much the wiser from her Ondra experience.
Anyway, very disappointing and unsettling. But.....can be cured by stellar TLD delivered on or before the ASM where the meeting discusses the interesting results. Now, that is interesting!!
No comment.
No, at 65 she is not dilating anymore. But change the a to a u and that is much more likely. JMHO.
Don't think so. As I have said in previous posts, if Duffy found after coming to NWBO that his prior analysis was not only confirmed but exceeded all expectations and was as confident as Les and DI, he would still be with NWBO for all the reasons mentioned. IMHO, there is nothing going on with Merck and Duffy's return seals that deal.
IMHO, Duffy's departure is extremely concerning and the cavalier he got a deal he could not refuse is a hard to believe cover story. NWBO's best option to cover this untoward development is to squelch it with remarkable TLD.......announced at the ASM. JMHO.
Indeed a reasonable view. However, I don't see NWBO necessarily tied to the COVID/economic crisis. If someone comes up with a successful COVID antidote, there will be demand despite economic depression. Death is the driver. Same with DC VAX L. If it is the paradigm game changer, there will be demand. Death is the driver. Yes, there is a valid counter. How to pay for it? However, I am sure that ways will be found to handle this through insurance coverage, special government programs, etc. For those that have a terminal disease they will move heaven and earth to avoid/delay it.
Further, in his calculus, Duffy knew the financial situation of NWBO. Of course, he could not have forecasted COVID. But in going to NWBO, there were all sorts of risks that did not plague a big company like Merck. I am sure he stashed something for a rainy day in jumping over to NWBO a veritable start up like company.
I doubt Duffy suddenly got cold feet due to the economic fall out, especially if NWBO hits a grand slam. However, the economic fall out considerations become a factor when coupled with unsettling misgivings concerning the degree of success of the trial. I think that is where he got cold feet and COVID/economic concerns tipped him over. The only way we will have closure on this and all things NWBO is the answer to the only important question at the ASM:
WHAT ARE THE TLD RESULTS?
Especially with the departure of Duffy which is concerning with a cover story that is hard to buy NWBO needs to instill confidence. A "no show" TLD at the ASM just kills it. JMHO
Thank you for your well articulated response. Please allow me to correct an impression. I never claimed that Duffy might leave NWBO due to LP's my way or the highway. What I said was that even assuming a management mis-fit between the two, Duffy would tolerate it because of the potential of a home run and wealth.
Call me naive, but I just don't buy the idea that Duffy came to NWBO on behalf of Merck to validate the platform. If NWBO had the goods he would never leave. In fact, even if he were on a mission for Merck and not only were his perspectives on NWBO's platform confirmed, but far exceeded, he would undoubtedly want to join NWBO as a long term employee. This would be a win-win-win for all parties. Merck would have validation, LP would have a valuable employee and Duffy would become wealthy beyond his dreams. I think that Duffy discovered something unsettling and decided to leave.
The only way we will find out for sure is TLD and follow-on wrt Merck. But I am still very concerned and one thing we agree upon is the fake cover story. I don't buy it.
Unfortunately, losing Dr. Duffy who strongly validated the platform and helped to patch up, to some degree, NWBO's credibility, is a huge blow. With him gone, so is the credibility he injected when coming aboard.
This is not the "interesting" thing I was hoping for at the ASM. And the timing could not be worse. Yes, I now see why the ASM will be interesting. NWBO will need to explain why no TLD yet and incidentally why did Dr. Duffy leave just on the supposed eve of unblinding which for some inexplicable reason can't be done now but that we are on the three yard line. Problem is that it is fourth down, one second on the clock, the defense line formidable, the quarterback limping and the receivers all covered.
Maybe it would be better not to have the ASM at all. I appreciate the work in coming up with questions, but the only one I am interested in is:
What is the TLD?
Not where is it or when is it or how is it or why can't you tell us or even why did Dr. Duffy leave? We will have the answers to all these questions when the major one is answered. Anything else is just rock n' roll. JMHO.
We do not know what his compensation was and what the Ts and Cs of his agreement were. Your scenario is possible but in my view not probable.
The simpler explanation, it seems to me, is that he thought he saw a great opportunity and acted only on his behalf, not Merck's. Being an insider employee, he was exposed to a lot of information particularly because he was working on the SAP. He was a valuable employee. He had the right credentials. He had the right contacts. He understood the regulatory process extremely well. He had the right experience and most importantly success. You don't let go of such a prize with a cavalier....."well, he got an offer he could not refuse.....and we don't believe in standing in the way to indenture employees." The gist of it is that they did not want to keep someone who did not want to stay and probably no longer believed. That to me is equally if not more believable. If what he found while at NWBO was portending to be stellar, assuming he were doing DD on behalf of Merck, why didn't he ask LP to really make him a permanent employee? She definitely would have agreed and so would Merck by the same token as NWBO....that they don't stand in the way of employees seeking better opportunities. Either way, it seems to me that there was nothing compelling enough to keep him at NWBO. And......contrary to the naysayers, he was very valuable to Merck and he was not fired. Quite the contrary.
I don't know about you but this whole thing is very fishy and is beginning to be odiferous.
It was very late at night when we talked mainly about my concerns with Duffy's departure. So no, no chance to get into the weeds. The only other thing he said associated with this is that further cash raises may not be needed.
I have discussed this before and while it is possible, I just don't buy Dr Duffy being seconded to NWBO as an employee by Merck to validate their platform.
Usually, someone leaves a large and comfortable company, as I did, and joins a small start-up because it is exciting, great product(s) and for the chance to become very wealthy if it all pans out. Especially the latter. I have no idea if Duffy had golden handcuffs. If he did not, he was crazy to accept a position with NWBO and leave Merck. I had a start-up opportunity and got beaucoup stock options. Did a lot of DD and things worked out as expected. Duffy had to have done the same. To go to NWBO, trust me, he had to have golden handcuff incentives to leave Merck. By going back to Merck, he left a lot of potential money on the table if NWBO is as potentially successful as we longs think. Certainly, Dr. Duffy thought the same when he joined NWBO.
Something changed during the 6 months he was employed by NWBO. This was his chance to hit the big time. What happened? What did he find that caused him to return to Merck? Was there something wrong with the trial that he discovered? Were there indications that the TLD results would likely be just mediocre?
I have heard indirect references that LP is tough to deal with and things are pretty much her way or the highway. Maybe that was not a good fit for Duffy. But if the results were likely stellar and represented a new and exciting paradigm, management fit or lack thereof could be tolerated and compromises made, if the goods could be delivered certainly within a year or two. If Duffy made valuable contributions to the SAP, he had to have come across inside company informational/his own further due diligence and analysis of data he surely was exposed to in order to make valuable contributions in writing the SAP. Maybe in the course of developing this SAP, he became disappointed and concluded that this was not quite the opportunity he had originally thought. Thus, the "golden" handcuffs, at least to him, became "aluminum" and the deal to return back to Merck therefore more enticing.
Dr. Duffy was no longer drinking the cool aid and decided that it was better for his career and pocket-book to accept an offer from Merck that he could not refuse in light of what he had found unsettling at NWBO.
LG has said that nothing has changed and that they are going forward. Dr. Duffy is a good guy but he got an offer from Merck that he could not refuse. " We did not stand in his way because we do not believe employees should be enslaved" to quote LG. Simple as that. Do you believe it? Do you believe that Dr. Duffy and Merck with perhaps NWBO' s assent and participation engaged in an elaborate "employee" ruse to validate a platform so that Merck could go on with a partnership or even buyout and Dr. Duffy returned to Merck with mission accomplished? Possible but I find it hard to believe. It is easier to believe that Dr. Duffy became disillusioned, enough so, to return to Merck. If he did have golden handcuffs to start with, after 6 months he may have seen them becoming green but not as in money.
Some have said that if DI/Duffy were to leave, there would be great concern. Well, the much more important of the two has left under mysterious circumstances. Concerned? You bet I am and I, for one, do not believe the company line on this. JMHO
A concerned investor
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LG told me 50 and can expect about $ 60 million in revenues in a 12 month period once things are ready.
I don't think it is the simplest explanation but certainly reasonable.
Another simple explanation is that he realized he made a mistake and talked with his old employer. Happened to me. I decided to take another job and my former employer approached me and asked me to come back. For a number of reasons I rejected the offer. I did not make a mistake and was convinced of the opportunity.
In Duffy's case, it is certainly possible upon entering the company and reviewing things first hand that NWBO was not the opportunity he thought it was. From his vantage point maybe the results were not anything to write home about and he was disappointed. Maybe he thought there were better opportunities with Merck.
If NWBO were pioneering a fundamental sea change in the way solid tumors are treated and the results were undeniable, why would you leave? How could Merck give him a better deal? If NWBO hits a home run as LP and LG have said a number of times, the share price should very greatly appreciate and he would be a significant part of a new paradigm in addition to being very wealthy. Wasn't that part of the reason he left big P to go with an exciting start-up company with a paradigm changing product platform? Surely he did extensive DD, at least as much as he was able being on the outside. Being on the inside could have changed his perception. Maybe he did not have faith in LP/LG' s commercialization capabilities. Maybe he found a hole in the science. Who knows and nobody is really telling beyond glib explanations.
His departure is a concern and I don't see that he was promoted upon return to Merck or that he received significant compensation that would rival what he could take in if NWBO is successful. With his background and being an insider he would have an excellent idea of whether NWBO had the goods. His departure certainly raises concerns. He does not strike me as a gambler and what looked good on the outside, upon further inspection while on the inside, evidenced, at least to him, that it was less than what he originally thought.
I just don't buy the simple explanation that he got an offer he could not refuse or that he was on a "mission" to validate NWBO. At least equally persuasive is that he did not like what he saw up close. JMHO.
If what you say is true, then Dave Innes is not only naive and out of touch with the perception created by the ASM announcement but rather intentionally disingenuous. If he uses "interesting" as a weasel word, then he is knowingly ignoring what "interesting" really implies. The "elephant in the room" is upper most in investors' minds. Wall Street, physicians and patients are all hanging on with baited breath on what is "interesting." Indeed, last year, a definitive time table might have been "interesting." In fact we were all given a time table by none other than Jerry J. board member. Didn't he say with conviction, and supported by LP, that in 3~4 months there would be a string of PRs regarding developments such that the SP would be upwardly effected in order to create a much better acquisitions environment? Didn't Jerry J say that he was experienced with mergers/acquisitions? So what happened? This was blown as was his, and NWBO management credibility. You would think that BOD members would be clued into the company plans.
This time around, more than a year later, it is too late for timetables and their announcement is completely meaningless. Nobody believes it with management's and even BOD's track-record. It is more than likely that we would all believe that timeline prognostications would be blown. Why waste a perfect record?
In my conversations with LG, I once again explained the foregoing. The only thing that matters, that is 'interesting", is top line. He is not going to announce a partnership, acquisition, merger or anything else of interest unless and until TLD is announced. Potential partners, suitors, etc. have waited this long and assuredly won't make any move until TLD is known. That is the realty. TLD is the gateway to other "interesting" things. Without TLD, nothing else is really of any significant interest to anyone. TLD is top most on everybody's mind.
Skirting top line will confirm the perception that NWBO is again, for no discernible reason, kicking the can down the road. All credibility will be lost and IR a laughing stock. Might as well get rid of it and save some cash and bonus shares. No telling what will happen to the SP. Definitely single digits. LP will end up having to finance out of her own pocket because there will be no financing deal toxic enough to attract the vultures.
Is management this naive? Is the ASM really going to be a nothing burger with no PR build up between now and the ASM? No TLD then but "we are planning to announce it prior to the former ASCO Exhibit dates or soon thereafter...." If that's the case, even the most ardent supporters will have had enough and I would hate to say it, but Scotty would be right. Accordingly, with all due respect to you, you misunderstood DI. If he said what you claim, he is one dumb SOB and should be terminated forthwith.