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Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:42:41 PM
However, I do not expect much from this ASM unless they release top line. The overwhelming odds are that top line will not be announced then.
Management will not give any clear guidance as to when top line will be released. Wrt to SAP finalization and data lock, they will probably say that it should happen soon perhaps in a couple of weeks. WRT top line, due to the amount of data collected and the complexity of the SAP--note that it is as big as a telephone book--this may be a multi-month process depending upon what the unveiled results are.
They will talk about Sawston readiness and the friendly regulatory environment in the UK again without any specific guidance. The fact that they have been preparing manufacturing facilities demonstrates their confidence in the results and top line hopefully will confirm this confidence. They will talk about compassionate use in the UK and the revenues they can expect in a 12-18 month period which could mitigate, to some extent, their funding requirements. They will express their confidence that top line will certainly, unless there are unforeseen circumstances such as COVID, be released during 2020 and hopefully sooner rather than later. That will be the extent of their "guidance" and what is "interesting" . "We are closer than ever so stay tuned". They will not provide any specific information concerning, for example, how many are still alive. That will be deferred to unblinded results.
They will not provide any specific guidance because they want to catch the nefarious forces off guard. They are looking for a big squeeze. This is a theme which Les has consistently talked about and of course used as an excuse for lack of specific guidance. Big squeeze depends on results announcement which they want the shorts to keep guessing.
Essentially, the ASM will be a non-event asking for a bit more patience since they are almost, but not quite, there. No doubt accredited investors who participated in the April 3 funding round will be roundly disappointed having been told that the ASM will be very interesting and exciting only to see, once again, a bait and switch. Especially, if the market punishes the SP and investors realize they could have purchased a lot more shares at significantly lower prices than the April 3 offering. I hope I am wrong but a gut feeling.
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