I mean a BO is a "what if" as well.

And management change (which has happened in the past with JZ stepping aside) is FAR more likely than BO at this time (with so many uncertainties, unless we're sold for a song like $7).

To be fair for 2)

Most companies were nearly 50% less at the time.

Hell great companies like V, NVCR and SBUX were cut in more than half.

Now management hasn't done well this year at all, don't get me wrong. But changing management (a good thing if we find the right guy) and selling the company are 2 different issues.

You can do 1 without the other.

What are the odds of those 5 things happening?

1) Very high (nearly certain)
2) Meh. This is a dice roll.
3) I don't think this is very likely given all that transpired so far and the bad blood thus far.
4) Huh. You're relying on the FDA? That's a hail mary and a half
5) reasonable based on the science but we need a huckster in chief to push the message (which we haven't done).

Except 1 and 5 that are reasonably likely i don't see a lot of prospect for the others.

$1 until proven otherwise. I'd be well skeptical of China and I am guessing the market feels the same way.

Maybe u should write to the researchers.

I agree with you (DHA does increase LDL). But it appears she missed the mark.

Medicare is one thing.

But wouldn't BCBS open themselves up to a class action if they willfully denied medication?

https://www.tctmd.com/news/new-aha-guidance-omega-3-fatty-acids-high-triglycerides

I think the biggest was:
1. Nevada filing
2. Not settling

Even IF he did everything right (which he didn't). The BOD still need to make a show for investor confidence and replace a CEO that has destroyed so much shareholder value (albeit indirectly).

He is not an Elon Musk-style (someone where ppl buy shares regardless of the company's product / business performance because they believe in his "amazing leadership") and neither is he a founder that is impossible to remove by virtue of holding huge amounts of stock / voting power.

1. What other risk factors (aside from diabetes / risk factors like trigs, markers etc) do you mean when you say BCBS doesn't cover Vascepa?

2. Surely if the patient is in a high risk (and high trigs IS high risk according to AHA) its FAR FAR cheaper to pay for Vascepa than the patient having emergency heart surgery, stroke / rehab, etc?

Assuming there are 10 patients in this category that don't get vascepa and get an 03 generic. Just 2 of these individuals (<25% from REDUCE-IT study) getting a heart attack / stroke would destroy any savings BCBS saw from switching them to a generic 03.

Vascepa is a cheap drug, its not PCSK-9 pricing...

Your theories on why JT is still the CEO?

Looking to kickstart some discussion here on why the board thinks JT hasn't been replaced by BOD.

So far the theories flying around are:

1. He has so many shares (low single digit %) it sways BOD in his favor
2. He has trust of 1-2 major Institutes that would back him
3. Something under wraps (BO? Major readout? Settlement?) that replacing him would setback
4. BOD thinks inspite of the 70% destruction of shareholder value from $15 (pre-Du) Mgmt is doing good
5. No ready replacements

What do you think?
In order of likelihood I rate:

2, 3, 5, 4, 1

Well lets put it this way.

Sure 99% of what he posts may not be realistic / may be misleading & uninformed.

But hope never hurts. Just consider the guy no different to the various political hacks on both side of the spectrum pushing their heavily biased viewpoints.

Just hope nobody bases their trading / accumulation based on his "DD".

There's no way they should have done this as the paper would have been thrown out due to bias. She's working with Amarin so clearly would favor the company vs a "neutral" expert witness.

It's possible she corroborated with Bhatt ir did an interim analysis that resulted in the paper.

Not sure why there's so much vitriol now. We're in a bad place and management has made serious mis steps but the largest avoidable one that I can think of is filing in Nevada.

Aside from that the other accusations (the lura table, authorized generics etc) are all not substantiated enough for me.

Focusing the trial on cropped Kura has clear risks as pointed out by a patent expert, Markman. They could well have lost even if they brought it up at Du and CAFC. It's also not the time (yet) for authorized generics.

But yes we absolutely should have filed in Texas or Delaware vs a freaking blue state.

He was CFO at ViaCell that was aquired for $300m.
He was also at Abiomed for 9 years prior to their rise.

Is he the best man for the job. No.
The board have their work cut out if they want to persuade someone better mind.

I'm sure they are trying but they don't seem to have so much success.

Contrary to board hubris the BOD and institutions (who own a sizable stake) aren't idiots.

I do agree it's time for a management shake up but it's not necessarily a magic bullet. No guarantees a new CEO will get a better deal for the co than JT. Remember, JT actually did sell a co very successfully.

I'm all for BO / Settlement but what makes you so sure:

1. There are buyers at the price you want (presumably double digit $/share).

2. A settlement is even feasible at this point legally (most say no).

slow-walking EU is exactly what he should do if you want to maximize shareholder value, while he tries to hawk the company.

I don't think the US strategy has been smart or optimal. but EU is always about partnering or BO. Getting EU approval before either of those is stupid as you start the countdown clock without any ability to take advantage of it given the fractured nature of EU.

Its pretty common sense.

Heavier doesn't mean bigger.

1kg of mercury is as heavy as 1kg of oil but I can guarantee the mercury is smaller from a volumetric perspective.

It will be larger but not that much larger.

IF it's really a 1g pill and only 0.6g of vascepa and FDA approves AMRN has a major case for litigation.

Patients whose insurer force them to switch to generics also have a significant chance to initiate class action lawsuits against their insurers..

I don't see any way of doing that except if you manage to convince a major institutional investor or external activist (who then buys in).

Kind of ambiguous though. I doubt the actual capsule weights exactly 1g. The active ingredient is 1g.

Pill is bigger most likely.

If their label says 1g IPE then it needs to have minimum 1g IPE. it's probably a 1.4g pill including all the other shit.

Remember rafun I actually predicted this a few weeks back

Like I said I have experience in this industry and I've seen this first hand.

This is how generics get around patents (manufacturing ones or chemical production ines not drug patents).

It's also a dirty little secret that the low cost Indian drug manufacturers have veey low quality production lines. Expect Dr Reddys to be similar or lower grade stucf.

JT is very conservative.

To be honest though, when it comes to EU, I agree with being conservative.

We need to hit 1B sales first before thinking of 2B, 5B, whatever.

Man bet you wished LULU was local to you instead of that dog UA huh.

Anyways I feel its a little of column A (SEC) little of column B (SP crash) that sunk Plank.

And lighting $600m of his own money on fire in one year didn't seem to help him make better business decisions for what it's worth....

#3 is legit though.

If the list of good candidates is so long (and it certainly seems like AMRN has managed to hire some talented pharma folks recently in SVP / Director roles) then you have to wonder why JT is in a job..

He doesn't exactly have the strongest CV / lots of industry experience from BP.... only M&A experience.

HDGabor doesn't think so.

We'll see by end Dec. If they don't launch by year's end, its 99% they won't launch until GSK is resolved.

IF its your only house, you damn well fight like hell to keep it that way though.

If you lose your debatable title either because you ran out of $50s or the courts rule against you, you're still homeless either way.

I expect Hikma to launch by Dec 31.

They may delay in Nov due to supply issues with the pandemic happening and lockdowns across EU and Asia.

But if they don't launch by Dec 31 something is up for sure.

While I agree, its not necessarily a good argument.

Kevin Plank had his billionaire status wiped out by his performance, and losing $600m in a calendar year didn't seem to help him make better decisions...

Same with John Schnatter ie Papa Johns.

We lost this case. We can lose another one, again.

No such thing as a sure thing in the courts, we learned that the hard way.

While I agree with you on overall responsibility being the C-suite and they should take the fall (the way it happened with Boeing or Under Armor or other cases of shareholder value destruction) there are several reasons a shift may not be able to happen right away:

1. M&A at some stage of the process and BOD doesn't want to slow it down..
2. Advanced negotiations not beyond scope of M&A (partnership? trials? approvals? funding?)
3. Lack of quality candidates to replace JT (no guarantee that incoming CEO will do better)
4. One key major stakeholder is strongly backing JT for whatever reason and influencing the BOD

Ultimately the BOD also has SOME responsibility in this. Chairman may need to go as well, along with JT.

A partnership in EU is neither here nor there.

My guess is they are selling the co.

However, pricing, valuation, whether or not there is BP interest.

These are all pretty unknown at this time - we may need to be patient for some time.

You talk as if its so easy.

A buyout is fairly complex especially to value a flawed company like AMRN. Due diligence etc will take time, especially in the middle of a pandemic.

Beyond that, some of the offers / discussion may be contingent on certain events happening (to justify a valuation) or share prices hitting a certain level.

Talks may have advanced to a certain point before the buyer demanded to renegotiate based on appeal loss, etc.

Basically the only thing that the BOD / JT hasn't done overtly is say the company is up for sale. There's also no guarantee that firing him and replacing him with someone else will mean the new person is better - he/she could be worse.

I think we need to stick it out until EMA approvals, unfortunately.

Vascepa.

1g capsule = 1g of icosapent ethyl. 96% purity.