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The anticipated good news turned out to be a little sour, so the year began with a downward plunge , people abandoned ship. It was trend changing news. The sell down process hasn't ended yet as today's tumble shows. What looked like a good bounce yesterday, got hammered lower today. This could be the continuing downwave, to lower targets through February. This 5.70 'bottom pivot zone' is a critical step for support to hold. If price bleeds lower next week, odds are the target is looking to retest 5 dollars.
The last cycle bounce went as high as the 6.80 area. It didn't even reach 7.00, and the key MA's at 7.30/7.50 area weren't even close. Now, this collapse back to 5.70 to end the week has erased any bullish momentum, in my view. I expect sellers to keep on selling it down. Buying the bounce at 6 dollars now looks like a failed trade move. Maybe buying the target at 5.00 will be better. 🤔
I can't get stockcharts to post chart. Oh well...
Yep, the only reason why I'm not more nervous is because my core investment got in at the very bottom. I am stuck now with more work to do fixing my trading shares. I value your TA analysis. More eyes are helpful. Do you ever use some of the exotic tools like Ichimoku cloud/full ? That's been one of my favorites.
YOU look at it.🫣
Learn how to watch the price movements.
your comments keep getting full of shit clown reactions. That is so embarrassing for you.
Today retested 5.88/6.00 step, as I expected. It made a bounce there , as if... it wants to hold ok. Now watch for any follow through climb tomorrow to test resistance. Where is the resistance Frool 🤡 ? Watching intraday price action will offer clues, watch how it struggles climbing, maybe around 6.30, 6.40, see if it starts getting capped somewhere. That's how you watch the price action. Traders watch it. The wall street HF trading computers are programmed to trigger trades at precise price points and pattern recognition. Humans can trade like that to. This week has reached the 6.00/5.90 support step. The pattern remains lower highs/lower lows. The direction bias remains down, but IF we get a follow thru rally back to retest 6.80, the bias changes back to neutral, and then you watch the pullback for the next clues. Good luck.🤡
In 2010-2011 , there was a big rally , from something like 70 cents to 3.70, something like that. I think I started buying and selling some , but really started buying the long nail-biting downwave that took 3+ years, and bottomed in late 2014 at 16 and 18 cents. I bought a lot there, and sold alot at 80 cents and 1 dollar, and was doing ok, held the rest as a core, and have been playing this Rollercoaster game, the whole time. If the science is still good, we'll be ok.
There's not much we can do at times like this except try to find the lowest targets to buy, I always expect Avxl to get hammered to the lowest targets. And now, my main question is... when do we expect Any good news... that will stop the bleeding down game. We've seen this price bleeding pattern many times. Now, here might come the next one. The next 3 critical targets , pivot lows at 5.70 area and then 5.50 and 5 dollars. Is there any fundamental reason why the 6.00 step should hold strong now? The major big chart picture has the bottom zone at 5 dollars. And that would become the next chart pattern, changing from a bullish rally pattern to a neutral Range pattern... We got last year the rally, 5 to 10 and failing to hold at 8,7,6, ... falling back to 5, becomes a Range pattern, and maybe toward the 3rd quarter, if we see a rally climb back to 8,9, or 10 again, I'll be thrilled to trade that wave.
Being "fed up" with the Anavex waiting game, like many other biotech investments, we're waiting years... I've been invested since 2011, I was 4 years too early. 🥴... but at least I was in at the 16 cent bottom as my core. We're all being tested for patience, every cycle of Anavex development. This latest "disappointment " looks to me only like a stretched out time delay. Instead of 2024 being a happy year of higher rallies, maybe it will be a tiresome year of price manipulation bleeding back down to 5, and 4 dollars. Could it be pushed down to 3 and 2 again? I don't know. I'm just trading up and down as we go, to get my money back , and buy lower, and I've been doing this for the last 12 years. I've bought a bunch of trading shares from 6 to 10 dollars, that I now need to sell at 8 and restart the game at lower bottoms. It'll be ok. As long as the science is positive.
Let's update as we go, Steve...
We watch the same targets, moving averages, rsi, etc... bounces at support, that get popped up, roll over and plunge down the steps to lower targets. Today into the last hour, the pop and drop... rolls over and down she bleeds. The bleeding down game. Lower lows and lower highs. Now hitting 6.00 , next targets down looking at retesting 5.70, critical there . Bounces back to 6.00- 6.15 , watch for pop and drop rolling over , just like today, and then down again to lower targets, 5.50,5.20, 5.00.
The bleeding down game. How low can they take it before good news stops the bleeding. How many weeks and months do they have to play this bleeding down game?
Right now, I'm seeing this 6.00 step as a critical support that needs to hold if they want to retain any rally strength. It has a chance but the price action we're looking at these days is the bleeding down game.
I don't pay much attention to aftermarket. It's noise to me. I like to see where the pivot points,tops and bottoms are. And the support/resistance shoulder zones . 6.50-6.70 resistance to watch now, versus 6.30- 6.00 support. Where are my 1 dollar targets at... down is 5.70 and up is 7.30
Of course if we do get any good news...
That could make price jump outside of the predictable movement, but without news, I'll be expecting to see the bleeding down game, wherever it starts from. 7 dollars. Or 8 dollars. The short interest might be able to take it down and keep it in the low zones for months. Last year, anticipation of good news made a rally from 5 to 10, and now it's collapsing back down, I see no reason why it won't retest 5 again. But I could be wrong.
This week's test for investors ...
and traders, ... not to say "Yippee " yesterday... and "Oh,No, " today. Must always keep emotions out of it. It's an up and down Rollercoaster game.
And might be a long tiresome year.
Yep, we might be heading into a TA trading cycle now. Time to watch the price action game.🫣
When there's no news coming, when technical trading cycle takes over, it's all about price bouncing and tumbling up and down the steps hitting Resistance and Support targets, and the game plays out, with wall street manipulation, HFT trading algos, etc... and mom and pop traders hanging on for the ride. Experienced TA analysts can understand what the price action is doing, and catch the signals.
The current battle zone is 6.00-6.30 support versus 7.00-7.30 Resistance. The technical trading game could dominate the whole year, if there's no news.
The latest pivot low in the current cycle is around 5.70, so far. Below that, is the 5.00 area. Do you think price patterns can retest 5 dollars again ? Can a rally pattern climb back up to 10 dollars again, this year? Right in the middle, is the key MA's around 7.50. And they are now waiting to act as Resistance.
What is the reason your bias is bullish right now? Are you expecting good news to generate 2 or 3 sustained rallys? I think it's possible we are watching the price developing it's balance point. The place where it shows some fair value in the public mind. Based on no news, or many months without news, in my view, the selling pressure will push the price downward, to make that balance point closer to 5 dollars. If sellers can drop it to 4.00 they will try. On the top side we see the sloping slide of lower highs, from 13,12, to 10 dollars now, and overhead around 7.50 is the Resistance wall of key MA's. My bias, at the moment is to see Resistance overhead at 7.30 area get hammered by sellers as they make a Year Long effort to push the price down and down. To make it wallow around the 5 dollar bottom. The key MA'S around 7.40 should be the right balance point, a middle zone between the 5 bottom and the 10 top. But right now, the Resistance test hasn't started yet. It will be a big TA thing to watch when it gets tested. You're thinking price will blow through it very bullish. I'm neutral but bearish anticipating a big selling effort hitting hard as long as there's no news coming.
As long as you didn't get a Bill's tattoo on your arm, you'll be ok.
Price jumped today , from the 6.30 support area. A bullish looking day.... now we get to watch that resistance around 6.80-7.00 you mentioned. Above that are the ugly looking MA's.
Yes, and how quickly the sentiment can change from bullish rally pattern to... oops... disappointing news, set back, readjust the plan, down goes the rally, all the way back to the bottom again. And only good news can stop the bleeding down game. I'm trying now to decide where to place my next bids. A retest of 6 dollars? How about a retest of 5 dollars. The major resistance targets in the chart now overhead are those key MAs around 7.50. It's possible we could see 6.25 hold here and rally another dollar, and test 7.50, but even if it does that, the sellers could hammer price down from there , and Avxl could get bled down to retest the 5 dollar bottom again. Only good news will stop the 2024 bleeding game. The 2023 fall rally went from 5.00 to 10.40. Now the 2024 Bleeding down pattern has that Range bottom as a target once again.
Looking at today's downward move, from the resistance capping around 6.90- 6.75 down it tumbles to end the week hitting 6.30 support area. It's a neutral finish to the week. I expect to see next week continue down to test 6 dollars
( 5.80- 6.05) and lower targets to 5 are in play. The support this week had the 6.50-6.30 area to watch. 6.50 failed. Now we get to see if resistance at 6.50 sends price rolling over and tumbling down to test 6.00. It could become a long year for Avxl if we don't get bullish news.6 dollars can bleed down to 5 and down to 4. My major resistance sell trading shares target is around 8.50. The second rally to get there hasn't begun yet. Price hasn't even reached the key Ma's at 7.50.
The recovery bounce from the 5.75 bottom traveled 1 dollar basically, and now it's pulling back. The 50% Fib target for that move is support around 6.25, and that's what we're watching now heading into next week. I'm expecting to see 6 dollars and 5.85 getting g hit next week. This rally so far, failed to hit 7 dollars. It could bounce bullish again. But what I'm sensing instead. Is a bleeding down. Which is what Avxl always seems to do.
This is an excellent read. Helpful.👍️
In fact, Steve, wouldn't the basic move here , if there's no news coming now, marks this current bounce as a floating up ,like a price adjustment coming after the big plunge from 9.80 to 5.80. Now price is slowly settling into a balance around 7 dollars.(6.50-7.00) But because we see the key ma's overhead at 7.25-7.50 area.... that zone is the magnetic Resistance target that should be reached in the current upwave. And I would expect to see a strong selling effort there.
Those key ma's are a big magnet on the chart. We'll learn more if/when that ceiling gets reached.
Somebody here has a motto saying ... can Avxl be an 8 dollar stock again ?
That's the current question for real at the moment.
What is the future news cycle looking like now? Can someone post the perspective for 2024? It can help to see how the TA chart might take shape .
Right now, the price is settling after the disappointing news. Hasn't made the next big moves yet. We have the collapse from the peak, 10.25 area to a low at the 5.75 area (5.65-6.00 bottom zone). If the price doesn't revisit the 5.70 bottom again, it would be because some force is holding the support at 6.00-6.20 shoulder.
This is price action to be watching now. And we have to wait for it.
If support does hold here at a 'higher low' and rallies upward, I'd need to see a good 1 dollar move, a small pullback and another 1 dollar move. 2 steps that go from 6.50 to 7.50 to 8.50.
If that rally develops, ungenerated by any good news, I would expect sellers to try and slam down the price when it hits the 8.00- 8.50 area.
If price only rallies to the key ma's... at 7.50 area, and If the sellers are strong enough to slam it back down to 6.00 or lower, then this would be a big tell, showing that shorts might be in control, and we could possibly see Avxl groveling at the lows for months.... unless good news comes to the rescue.
But for now, it's not necessary to look too far ahead. It's easier to just see and anticipate the next 1 or 2 moves, which can lead to the next few after that. Traders have targets for buying and selling.
Frool... now you have 3 Full of shits, 2 clown, and one Evil demon. You're heading in the wrong direction... and even after I said nice things to you. That sounds like you might have some mental problems. I hope not.
............................
I remember the last time you waged a campaign to shit on me, last fall,... it was brilliant, I forecasted 2 days ahead, a price drop warning to a specific target... you called it nonsense, and me an idiot.... two days later, price did Exactly what I forecasted. I could have shamed you... but I didn't. I just stayed gracious, and privately reveled in my glorious crushing defeat of your embarrassing nonsense. I hope you can stop trying to be my adversary.at least stop when it loses its entertainment value.
You've had 3 responses so far... 2 think your post was a clown nonsense, and one post thinks you're full of shit.
.....................................
We've had our clashes in the past. You're a fundamental science analyst, and I actually read and value your comments. You display no interest or ability to analyze TA... but you dismiss my TA analysis... As If... you Are a TA expert. This is completely irrational mental nonsense on your part. I stopped responding to your nonsense months ago. But here you are again. Let me help you avoid embarrassment.
If you don't analyze TA, and you're not a TA expert...please stop trying to denigrate those who do TA, and have some level of expertise.
If you think you do know how to read a chart and can offer some vision... please post your analysis and let us examine it. The 'full of shit' emoji is not a good thing to have next to your comments.
I've been reading your fundy analysis this month, you're views are helpful and worth reading .Stick with your area of expertise and let us TA guys do what we do. 👍️
Do companies want to give institutions a chance to buy shares at 5 dollars? Maybe my question is silly. Sorry if it is. I'm just pondering. Possible reasons why price gets sold down. I sell my trading shares at resistance tops, not at bottoms.
It's a good marker to watch for, the 200day and
50day lines,are showing the next level where support and resistance look more critical in the big picture. We'll need a rally to get into this area, and then see what the pullbacks do.climbing up and down the stairs. But we can step back and watch the big long term picture now, we need to see now, the lower support around 6.00 area Hold strong. The rally, in my view, needs to climb to 8.00-8.50 area ultimately, and then the pullback to test the 200ma/50ma would become the next
major test for price action. This is what a bullish recovery pattern would start to look like. 👍️
@Crescent... could that be
An intentional strategy ? To keep share price down?
Price action is hovering just above key support at 6.00 - 6.20 area, which gets stretched to 5.75. Overhead it looks like 6.75 area could be a capping target.so there's this 1 dollar zone, the current playing field, centered around 6.25. And price is sliding up and down around this area, not looking in any hurry to rush to the next 1 dollar targets, down to test new lows around 5.50- 5.25, or jump up to test 7.50- 7.75.
It's starting to look like a slowing down pattern, to me, and to be expected , since no news to excite buying, maybe the bigger test now is watching the downward pressure try to retest bottoms in the coming weeks. Would that develop, I'd anticipate seeing capping between 7.00- 6.50 area, and then bleeding down the 30 and 60 cent steps that arrive at the 5.50- 5.25- 5.00 target zone. Would traders buy some more at 5.75-5.00 ? Are we now in one of those moments where Avxl needs a boost of confidence with good news? The old big chart picture had developed the major support bottoms at 10.00 area,9.00 area, now waiting as Resistance. It has to be seen as a major target for traders to sell there. My target as well.
K, do you think that is...
A good stock to consider owning? Or, put another way... is your confidence level the same or similar to AVXL.
Thanks back to you, John.
A name I remember from early AVXL days.
If my portfolio dovetailed with my hair loss I'd be in the poor house.
AVXL has been a rollercoaster to trade, all these years. Some day, we hope it will be just a buy and hold, but even now, as the forecast for this year might be changing, to neutral, ... instead of expecting the great news in a few months, we are now seeing some of our best fundamental experts saying it won't likely happen at all this year. Very disappointing. But, it means traders will need to play the trading game some more.like we've been doing these last 10 years. In some ways, it makes the trading game easier, because I'll have a little more confidence in the trade targets and chart patterns. I set my sights on watching the price action create the patterns, and the patterns will display some good predictably. Right now, the support around 6 dollars needs to hold. Climbing higher steps, the targets around 7.50, 8.50 , might have some traders selling shares. My exit for swing trades from the 5.75 bottom is 9.75 - 10.00 area. And now that the fundamental prognosis for AVXL in 2024 is neutral again... I'm not expecting big upwaves to 13,15,18 dollars, on the bullet train. I'm expecting a Range pattern, like the last 2 years, this time 6 to 10 and back down again. 6 to 10. Driven by the trading algos.
That's a good day trade.
Well done. People can make some paychecks day trading AVXL. I'm always tempted to trade more often, but then I can never fully convince myself that it's not gambling, even when you know how to do it. So I make a few swing trades from time to time.
Question for you if I may ... do you see AVXL as more of a trading stock, or more an investment to hold. I'm about 75% investment, and 25% trading mind with Anavex.
Good trading to you.
Well said. 👍️
Give us your view of the price action and chart picture, and perspective. I'd be interested in your technical vision. Don't be shy.🤐
A simpler view of the price action now...
After the latest fundamental event disappointed, and changes the picture, readjusts the Time frames, for Anavex ultimate success, increases the need for news, event markers, and alters the price action wave patterns going forward.
Volatile AVXL gets sold down easily. Manages to rebound sooner or later with good news, and hopes of good news.
Suddenly, with this fundy disappointment, the high hopes for 2024 are dampened, and unless we get good news or news hype, I would anticipate watching the price action continue downward... to lower targets , in the coming weeks and months. Maybe 5 dollars for a while, then maybe down to 4 dollars. Watching the price action as it falls and bounces from 6 dollars to 5 dollars, will offer clues and a sense of the strength and weakness, the technical analysis that some of us do to see the picture developing... sometimes you can only see the next 2 or 3 steps coming. I can see 4 dollars as a target in play now, but 3 dollars is too soon to forecast. It belongs to a different chart pattern.
Targets to watch now , in my view, are 5 dollars, 4.50, and 4 dollars. Without good news in the next 2 months, I expect to see a continued downwave to aim for these targets. Right now, the sideways slide around 6.00-6.50 is a holding level. Good news can start a rally. No news will generate the continued downwave to lower targets. In this new pattern, I'm looking at the playing field of 4 dollar bottom to buy and 10 dollar top to sell trading shares.
No good news means downward price direction...
It seems simple enough to say. The rally pattern has been broken now that we're seeing lower lows and lower highs... we can call it a pullback, but if it falls all the way down to retest the 5 dollar target Low (4.90) then that double bottom in the greater chart picture, has to be redefined, maybe call it an aborted 2023 rocket launch. A fizzle, a delayed launch. Maybe the Alz trial will reignite the next rally. But watching the price action now... it slides sideways, in a holding pattern, at 6.25 area, above 6.00 support waiting to be tested, waiting to retest 5.80 for the 3rd time... and getting capped overhead at 6.50 resistance. As long as it fails overhead at 6.50 -7.00, I think the bias will look downward toward 5 and maybe all the way to 4 dollars. It might become a long and unsettling 2024. Unless we get good news.
Yep. It suffered a technical breakdown. and now finished the week retesting the bottom at 6. Would investors jump in here and buy ? After digesting the news. Maybe we need an infusion of good news soon about the AD trials , or any good news. First to halt further bleeding , and spark a rally. While we wait many months to see
the next major news catalyst give the price a reason to recover. If we see no major news ... what would be a fair value baseline for AVXL price now... 4 dollars? 3 dollars? 5 ? And from that bottom, we might see a long drawn out Range pattern peak at 7.50-8.00 resistance, and retrace back down again.
The way the price has tumbled down... I think we are looking now at a changed chart pattern. The upwave pattern has been broken and we might be watching a Range pattern developing. The plunging drop from 10/9.50 to the 5.88 /6.00 pivot low is being retested now ,to end the week at 6.00. Resistance looks like 6.50-7.00 area, and from there, at overhead resistance, if we see rallies fail there and bounce down... 6.50 could travel down to 4.50 and 4 dollars. The 4's are on the playing field now, in my view. Basic range is 4 to 8 ,, and the other range pattern, IF this 6 dollar area does hold, I'd be watching if the range pattern would climb back to 10 again.
How many months now do we wait for some good news to stop this downwave ?
Same to you my friend. Here's to a breakthrough new year for Anavex. 👍️
I agree Steve, 9.00 is a sensitive target.
We saw the pullback continue today. I think it will retest 9 next week. There's a support shoulder zone from 9.20 to 8.70 to watch and see if it settles down there.
Not sure how many days this pullback will continue... If we would have more bullish momentum starting the next rally, this pullback shouldn't last more than a few more days. I think the latest good news ought to demonstrate a stronger bullish sentiment sooner than normal, instead of seeing 2 weeks sliding sideways.
🤣.... You must be joking.
I've been here since 2013. I was one of the first , and only posters on this forum 10 years ago. I've never heard of you though. But thanks for the good laugh.
Looking at the pullback now... each day offers better clues and vision to make the guesswork more logical. I measure the math from bottoms to tops, look at resistance shoulders and support steps. Maybe also looking at options tables to see those targets, and the timing. These days I feel stronger now about the impact of good news keeping the upwave Pattern developing. But as this large upwave pattern, which started at the 5 dollar bottom in October has so far, reached a major resistance zone around 10.00- 10.40, it's not surprising to see a pullback happening from there and now we are watching it. It could demonstrate that stepping down, bleeding down pattern, bouncing a little, and rolling over and down some more. I bought some at today's 9.44 low. Watching the bounce now, for resistance around 9.80, and watching for the next wave down, another dollar, looking at the steps down to 9.25 area, 9.00 , and 8.75 area. I have small bids in to buy all those target steps.
I don't feel the upwave momentum is broken at all yet, but it's only logical to expect sellers to try and take it down, as AVXL always falls to the lower targets in patterns. But... the good news and new European horizons are coming closer, this pullback is much more dangerous for shorts, and might be last chance for buyers to get bargains.
Looking again at the chart, I'm seeing support zones here around 9 dollars to 8.70, then at 8.40 area. The bullish sentiment could weaken a little if the 8.70 shoulder falls, and 8.50 pivot low falls. But I will be prepared to buy more at those targets and at 8 dollars. And 7.70 target. Small portions along the way.
When 30 dollars came down to 16, I bought more. Thankfully, I was able to buy and sell up and down that Rollercoaster and get the money back to neutralize that trading game. But now to be buying at 8 or 9 dollars, at this time feels to me like last chance before the train becomes a bullet train to Europe. I won't be chasing to buy at 13 or 15 , when I can buy now at 9 and maybe 8.
Sorry for the long post. I'm watching the bounces into resistance and watching the bleed down the target steps to buy more along the way down. 9.75 to 8.75 is my current playing field. 9 dollars is the central magnet to watch currently. and below that, the critical support step targets are 8.75 and 8.50 area. The 8 dollar target is still in play in my view. But too soon to forecast right now. I don't always buy every target step along the way down, but this time I am doing that because 2024 looks like the very bright new day for Europe and all of us.the new day to bypass and break the shackles of the big pharma FDA suppression. Can they stifle Anavex forever, in the face of glaring trial success and vastly superior quality over FDA approved competitors ? We'll see soon enough in the coming year.
Well said, falconer. And considering the successful development , and where it is now, setting up to make the giant leap forward in the coming months, I'm more confident about the October low at 5 dollars being a major cycle reversal point, and since then, this major upwave recovery is looking good, as it broke through the first set of resistance levels, and boosted by good news at the right time, continues upward now, the chart is representing the positive development . This is how the chart should look. Now this rally from the October bottom is an important pattern to keep watching. We might not see bargains to buy shares at 6 or 7 dollars anymore. But old pivot lows a few years ago were seen as bargain
bottoms at 10 and 9 dollars.Price should be looking to develop a support shoulder here at 9.00-10.00 area in this upwave pattern, over the coming weeks. So if we see any pullback now, back into the 8's, it would have to be considered the technical bargain dips to buy. In my view. Any price in the 8's might be best bargain in this very bullish pattern.