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Same here
That was awhile ago, they were happy with a settlement at the time before RI Results, maybe they had different models than the others, but at this point, this close to trial after FDA approval for a bigger indication and BO talk probably hotter than ever likely worth playing it out as long as possible.
If there is a BO north of $15 Billion you just pay a few hundred million to make generic suits go away or whatever number works which is also a reason why generics will wait as long as possible to settle. They know they can get in 2029 and that BO is possible in near future so no need to settle until the last possible moment, take it as far as they can, worst case they are in in 2029, they know Amarin is not moving up that date, whatever they get paid off with in a BO scenario is more than they would make in profit to get generics a few years early.
Do you have a break down by region on Lipitor, all I could find was 14% of revenue was Europe over the life of product, maybe early on it was zero and later it was 43%? Maybe EU was not that big a %? If it was much of that 43% I think it was closer to 15% over the life then.
Excellent data though thx.
Thanks! seems high to me on that revenue, I don;t know how they factor the 5 times peak sales but do not mention comparison for others having generics at certain dates.
Other deals are used as guidelines but rough guidelines is all, I could agree that BP may factor in 3.6 Billion and Amarin $5 Billion but in the end that's all relatively meaningless as they use the same models and come to a range. I'm factoring in revenue to 2029, they would get like $25 billion in sales at 3.6 billion peak if it peaks fast and stays there and with the shares that management gets in change of control the 425 million shares is a 17 Billion BO on 25 billion in revenue?
The GS guy was lazy but his BO price is at least reasonable.
We will agree to disagree, it limits the upside, and of course a factor in current price, but the action the last 2 days is 99% other stuff IMO.
It's January or not at all IMO
No way BP prices 50% more for Rest of the world where Amarin has to sell the rights to others and only collect a small percentage in residual. Europe accounted for less than 15% of overall sales for best selling statin without having to be a residual, no way Amarin gets more than 10-15% from a BP for ROW.
I believe that note is unrelated to BO, that note is related to GIA revenue not model for BO In think.
$40 is the low and $55 is high per share in any BO scenario int he next 6 months.
$42 is reasonable analyst projection on 5 billion peak sales which is what BO from BP would likely be based on
Based on what? Patent case is not new, nothing changed AT ALL during Monday and price went down on high volume, minor change on Tuesday, this is not new news, it has very little to do with the last 2 days.
Patent case had almost nothing to do with recent drop. Monday had the huge volume and drop and the settlement conference had not even been completed. Patent is an overhang, one that will be eventually gone, odds are less than 5% of Amarin loss, stock does not sell off on a known case because of 5% chance of loss which is already built into price.
Stock is up from $17 to 21 since Adcom notes released, the raises were done at 18, time to cash in for many, ironic GS raised price now? Not ironic?
We are making a nice base in the 20's, stock is worth 25 here and 27-28 with generic suit settled, worth $30 end of next year GIA and then 2021 is when we see if management has the skills to GIA and take it much higher.
BO at min $41 in 1Q 2020 is the other option but sales related catalyst is 6 months out, market is hot, people just taking money elsewhere, stocks up 60% YTD and over 300% for 2018 which trounce the market, getting to $30 next year by end of year will trounce market again. Stocks don't just shoot up to rich valuations compared to sales overnight.
I doubt it has anything to do with anything, it’s an increase from his previous one, there were several others re affirming today, it’s got a 10 billion market cap with company giving high end sales of 700 million, how much higher could it go? I think about 12.5 billion would be reasonable due to BO potential but just looking at it on sales it could take a year to get there. Also you have a ton of people that can cash in from the raises around 18 plus everyone has profit now.
What is the driver to the SP the next 6 months? BO, generics settled, sales projection increas which they won’t due until at least June. If your buying today you need to see a path to a stock increase in next 6 month, BO by far is reason this could rise but not surprised it lingers around 25-30 for awhile on the high end.
Based on the info we have, FDA ordered the halt due to leak of label and expanded approval. Amarin has nothing to PR until FDA actually completes paperwork on label expansion and sends to them. I'm tending to believe that's the most likely scenario. Why would Amarin agree to BO on label, once they get label they have leverage. If they were doing that it just would have been done with CVR's.
Man, this Amarin book someone must be writing is going to have to be in volumes....
So does that mean they don't actually have the FDA answer but FDA asked for halt due to leak in the MRC documents or somewhere else? So press release is waiting on FDA to put together everything as they were not done?
Did he say what the news was? Based on trading it was obviously perceived positively
Sounds good but the other company that got a response for approval today was out with news 45 minutes after halt.
No kidding, I walked to the other office, chit chatted, cane back, was like, ok, must be 4 PM, nope it was 2 minutes later than when I left my office....
Well at this late stage trading likely won't resume until after hours regardless.
Friday the 13th and Full Moon last night. Perfect for the Amarin saga to reach its apex! Only Amarin shareholders would have to sit through a 3 hour halt for a simple press release.
If stock is halted why would that be true? What if they PR right at 3:30?
I just don't get why you would post that 3:30 meeting and then not just say, hey I know someone that works there, 3:30 meeting, obviously that also means after the meeting the guy calls him and tells him the news, thus I's think PR at 3:30 if that is all true since work will be out anyway.
More speculation: Because we need it
I suspect we get PR 3:30 or after, based on past posts concapk knows people working at Amarin thus his post about 3:30 meeting I speculate is to announce the broad label to employees. Whether they PR it before or after or at the same time anyone's guess. I think this is the reason for delay. I'm also getting excited because news has got to be really good if that speculation holds, of course I'm relying on a message board poster I have never met to come up with this speculation. But I read a lot of Sherlock Holmes as a kid.
We don't know nothing, though I assume it's always the company, but they could have done it at FDA request. Maybe Amarin wants to announce to employees first since they got them there, thus the rumored 3:30 Amarin call, and then press release it after, stocks halted, what does it matter if they do it in that order. We will know soon enough the news. Should be good news.
If the MRC denial leaked the approval, FDA was not ready to release to Amarin, once someone realized the approval was basically leaked in that document they halted stock, and then rushed to get paperwork done is a scenario that could apply.
Ummm, Hellloooo, more info!
You don't think it's Canadian approval? LOL
Took 45 minutes for TNDM today, and took almost 2 hours for the full press release to be on the wires
If so this halt could go awhile as now they have to rush the paperwork and get to Amarin and get a press release.
Best info I found on Lipitor is Europe market was about 15 percent of revenue so you look very high. Most peak sales estimates include worldwide sales and remember BP knows Amarin will only get royalties so would discount revenue they would get there knowing Amarin can’t get the same revenue. Your US numbers are low however. You must realize how royally screwed we are in US in paying for drugs,
You sound like you have been involved in these calculations before, you are 100 percent correct IMO in how you are thinking about the value BP would place on Amarin and how they would calculate it. If those with 30 billion and higher BO would pretend they are BP and understand how they do these calculations they’d know it’s not happening. The whole other indications and future versions of Vascepa things are worth almost nothing and unlikely to extend major sales past 2029.
However MDCO numbers released are BS. They ran a ton of different models, they paid based on much lower numbers. Those might even be MDCO management models, which of course are high to make a sale. I guarantee you they did not buy based on those numbers and that is total PR.
By 2029 they’ll do 1/3 the sales Amarin projects and Amarin projections are way more likely to happen. Based on what I can hypothesize they used for numbers and the lack of de-risking with MDCO, de-risk is huge and really, really effects BO price as much as anything, then 20 billion is reasonable, higher if multiple suitors and mostly stock deal.
Interestingly they normally make their recommendations AFTER approval by Health Canada and they are scheduled to submit a report between December 23 and Jan 2 so expect approval on same time frame as FDA and by end of year if they are privy to that timeline and not just basing it on the original review timeline
They will only earn royalties from those locations but generally yes. Peak Sales include all but majority USA.
It looks like STAT put in a Freedom of Information Request from FDA related to Nissen and any emails between him and those FDA employees. Not sure the irony bit but might be the fact STAT is looking for info on Nissen who has been used in cahoots with STAT to bash Reduce IT in the past.
I don't see the tweet you are referring to, is it not new?
Must be setting up for a capital raise and dilution.
We were down 11 percent last year vs 14 this year, higher number though so likely in line, expect the weather effect on next weeks number report, I know parts of New England were close for 2 day due to snow.
That post is still the original from June, someone else replied to it yesterday I did not post it again
So we not only have bizarre conspiracy theories about Amarin regularly we now also have them about the message board posters.
This might be the greatest stock message board of all time.
Might as well stay 60 more days through the buyout announcement.