Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[KCSVEN]

You sound like you have been involved in these calculations before, you are 100 percent correct IMO in how you are thinking about the value BP would place on Amarin and how they would calculate it. If those with 30 billion and higher BO would pretend they are BP and understand how they do these calculations they’d know it’s not happening. The whole other indications and future versions of Vascepa things are worth almost nothing and unlikely to extend major sales past 2029.

However MDCO numbers released are BS. They ran a ton of different models, they paid based on much lower numbers. Those might even be MDCO management models, which of course are high to make a sale. I guarantee you they did not buy based on those numbers and that is total PR.

By 2029 they’ll do 1/3 the sales Amarin projects and Amarin projections are way more likely to happen. Based on what I can hypothesize they used for numbers and the lack of de-risking with MDCO, de-risk is huge and really, really effects BO price as much as anything, then 20 billion is reasonable, higher if multiple suitors and mostly stock deal.