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hi slinky,
I think have to start taking the March 2009 lows as a 4.5 year low. Given the current price action, I do not have much choice right now. That means we are likely in the third 18 month cycle for this 4.5 year cycle. The low for the 18 month nest of lows has been made and we are unlikely to revisit those Oct. 4th price levels this year. Next year is another matter.
The main piece of evidence IMO for taking this view is that the 18 month FLD target looks to have been undershot and we did not touch the 4.5 year FLD on the recent low. I expect a different outcome on the next decline into the 4.5 year cycle lows to come. For now we are likely to get a retest of the highs and the $SPX could possibly make new highs in Q1 next year.
I'll come back with more analysis later.
cheers,
john
rab120
Yes it is.
rab120,
Send me a PM if you can.
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
Here's the analysis you suggested.
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=482&p=1565#p1565
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
Someone from one of my Toronto trading groups sent this to me this week. Food for thought (note the bolded text). I'll run Sentient as you suggest and post it today. BTW, I still think you should give this software a go.
cheers,
john
hi lexus,
Making market predictions with the news flow these days is a bit of a lottery. However, looking at phasings and the cycle periods for the larger cycles, I have the following given a late Nov. low (eg. 23rd):
<in calendar days and assuming today is a 5 week low>
5 week cycle would be 22 days along (28,28,28 avg. 28 days)
10 week cycle would be 50 days along (70,73,56 avg. 66.3 days)
20 week cycle would be 16 weeks along (20,17,21 avg. 19.3 wks)
40 week cycle would be 37 weeks along (35,34,37 avg. 35.3 wks)
18 month cycle would be 17 months along (18,19,16 avg. 17.6 mths)
54 month cycle would be 50 months along (54,53,53 avg. 53.3 mths)
9 year cycle would be 8.7 years along (last cycle was 8.9 yrs)
So while the 5 and 10 week cycles will be a bit short into that timeframe, the larger cycles are very close to averages.
Will markets hammer out a yearend (Christmas) low? Possible, but I somehow think that we may see a straddle here as the 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows form. A low here in the coming few weeks and a year end rally up into the winter with another decline into spring lows is what I think is likely. I like the idea of major market lows in May 2012. But this is a "guess" at this point. TWT.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
American Thanksgiving, a day or two prior should mark the low (Nov. 22-23). That will be about 17 months along in the 18 month Hurst cycle. It is hard to know with certainty, but that is what I am looking for. We'll know more when we get there.
cheers,
john
dindindon,
I recognize your work. Nice to see you here. Hurst cycles project an important low due late Nov. which is likely the 80 week cycle low (and a nest of lows for all the lesser cycle periods we follow). We should see another smart rally from that low into yearend and it is likely to extend to midwinter.
cheers,
john
hi bubbleboy,
I have the last SPX 5 and 10 week low as Oct. 4th. The last 2.5 week low was likely Oct. 18th. As you've pointed out, a 5 week low is due imminently, and I suspect it might be today. The $SPX has bounced off the 5 week FLD this morning. A climb into Friday is possible but then the selling should resume next week to lead into the important nest of lows due for the larger Hurst cycles we follow.
I still am looking for a late Nov. low to buy for a multi-week swing long.
Nice to see you posting here.
cheers,
john
India Hurst Cycles
Rather than repost several times, my comments on the Sensex cycles can be seen here:
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=481&p=1564#p1564
cheers,
john
India Hurst Cycles
Rather than repost several times, my comments on the Sensex cycles can be seen here:
http://www.fortuna.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=481&p=1564#p1564
cheers,
john
“Manipulation, pseudotrend, and unpredictable, are not in MY vocabulary”. That is what you should have written BlissBull. And that is what many found objectionable.
If you don't care to respect others on this board, you are welcome to post elsewhere.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst Cycles
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68365379
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst Cycles
I am not satisfied that the Oct. 4th low is the 18 month cycle low as I feel it came in too early. But that does not mean that it cannot be the nominal price low for the 18 month cycle. The bigger issue is whether we will be seeing a 4.5 and 9 year cycle low with the phasing I have been using in my expert model. The reason I point this out is that if these large cycles are involved and that a major nest of lows is coming, then the 18 month target for the SPX of 1050 (cash basis) should easily be met. Yet the Oct. 4th low was undershot with a low print of 1075. If the $SPX goes on to make an 18 month low say next month and not meet that 1050 target, in Hurst terms that is clearly bullish for US markets.
If we look at the Nasdaq market, it has not sold off as much as one would expect this year (given the larger cycles we are considering) and the $NDX has now strongly retested its annual high. There are other markets that look much more bearish, but the US markets clearly are not. Unless we see some serious downside in the coming weeks, I will likely have to change the phasing of the larger cycles for the US markets (ie. 2009 low = 4.5 and 9 year low). But we are not there just yet.
As for Sentient's current view using my expert model, here is the look at different timeframes. The next 10 week low is probably going to be a higher low give recent price action.
Here is Sentient's analysis summary shown below. Note that it has a target of 1122 which is still above the 1050 target generated with the 18 month FLD earlier this year.
In summary I am looking or a pullback into late Nov. That will likely be the next good swing long trade for a multi-month rally. However the decline into that low could be difficult to navigate for those playing shorts.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
Chuck I don't have privileges here. You'll have to PM me with your email address. Thanks.
cheers,
john
northam43,
Nice board and nice work. I will have to take some time for a closer look. Thanks.
cheers,
john
Chuck,
Thanks. I am glad to help.
Let me know where I can learn about the mechanics of Moderation.
cheers,
john
Chuck,
I use ihub on a freebee basis. I assume that excludes me from moderation privileges. If not, I would be glad to assist.
cheers,
john
"Manipulation, pseudotrend, and unpredictable, are a loser´s vocabulary"...
You my friend need to be educated. You've never read the Hurst cycle course and you don't know much when it comes to cycles. I don't bother tracking your trades and frankly I don't give a ...
I am getting pretty tired of your trashing anyone that takes the time to post bonafide cycle work.
Unless this board gets some serious moderation, I'll be moving exclusively to private boards.
Fire away as I know you will ...
hi scott,
I'll be here the next couple of days:
http://www.csta.org/index.php?categoryid=1
I have a number of thoughts on what comes next, but first we have to confirm that the 18 month low has been seen.
cheers,
john
J. M Hurst Cycles Trading and Training Course (Audio CD)
It is a home study course which will take you some time to work through.
https://www.traderspress.com/detail.php?PKey=99
See the testimonial at the bottom of the page.
No, I've studied the cycle course and only apply what is taught in that material.
hi rab120,
SPX 1050 was the target generated by the 18 month FLD this summer. The Oct. 4th low was 65 weeks along from the July 2, 2010 last year (66 weeks low to low) which is very early and a shorter cycle period than what we saw in the last 18 month cycle (69 weeks).
So until we rollover decisively here in this 10 week cycle, I'm not sure how we get there. And in Hurst speak, if we get well through 80 weeks off the July 2010 low and not see $SPX 1050, then the target was undershot, which is bullish.
cheers,
john
2.5 week Hurst cycle low looks likely today. If so, more upside in the next couple of days looks certain near term.
I was chased out of shorts in the last hour today and I don't know when now to revisit a short trade going forward. We'll just have to see how this 10 week cycle proceeds from here. As we edge closer to the end of this current 10 week cycle, I will be looking for longs only.
cheers,
john
hi Lee,
I would be willing to wager that the Sensex will bottom by the end of Oct. The 18 month low for the Sensex is very close. It is possible that it is in already, but I still think we get one more strong hit in the markets and then certain assets/sectors will be the first buys for a multi-month swing long. JMHO. That is all I can do but offer my humble opinion.
I will update the Sensex Hurst cycles in the coming days. FWIW, I did take an initial long position on Oct. 3rd in one ETF, but this was not on a clear Hurst signal buy. I plan to hold it and add on the coming low.
cheers,
john
Today/Friday was a top, and very likely the top for this 10 week cycle ...
18 month cycle lows await in the coming weeks.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst expert model
We are now in the last 10 week cycle of this 18 month cycle that started July 2, 2010. It should be a bearish cycle until 18 month cycle lows are seen. We have yet to see the $SPX hit the 1050 target (minimum downside target) generated earlier this summer via the 18 month FLD.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
$SPX Hurst expert model
We are now in the last 10 week cycle of this 18 month cycle that started July 2, 2010. It should be a bearish cycle until 18 month cycle lows are seen. We have yet to see the $SPX hit the 1050 target (minimum downside target) generated earlier this summer via the 18 month FLD.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
re: $SPX Hurst 10 week low
The $SPX has now rallied 107 points as I write, off the Oct. 4th low. There is no doubt that we saw a 10 week low with this amplitude. Now we wait for this 10 week cycle to top out, which I expect by about mid week. The top of current 2.5 week cycle should mark the top of this 10 week cycle. The underlying trend is still down until we see the nest of lows for the 18 month, 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycles.
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
Responding the Lee's remark, here's a blurb on Sentient Trader's process for phasing analysis, which according to David Hickson, is very true to the Hurst methods taught in the Cycles Course.
hi slinky,
One observation that I have learned from Hurst cycle work is that with bearish cycles, you tend to see highs where you expect cycle lows. In bullish markets the counts and phasing works fairly rhythmically from low to low. But in bear moves, things get complicated by the phenomenon of time translation.
To set up a bearish decline here we need to see a bear rally that takes the $SPX to edge of the 20 and 40 week channel. That should also coincide with a move back up to the 20 week VTL near 1175.
If this is on, then I look at the resulting amplitude of each of the last 5 rallies including this one:
Aug. 8th ... 107
Aug. 22 ... 110
Sept. 12 ... 84
Sept. 22 ... 82
Oct. 4th ... 77 so far as I write.
So if the amplitude of this rally exceeds 84 points, I believe this supports the case for a 10 week low. Target could be 1175 -1180 in the coming few days. Tomorrow's jobs report will be telling.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
$SPX Sentient Trader
Here is my run with ST using an $SPX expert model as reference (to a 20 week cycle resolution). The setup here is what Hurst called an edge band short. TWT.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
$SPX Sentient Trader
Here is my run with ST using an $SPX expert model as reference (to a 20 week cycle resolution). The setup here is what Hurst called an edge band short. TWT.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
$SPX Hurst 10 week cycle low
I am starting to feel like my old self these days. On the path to better health.
I think yesterday marked a 10 week cycle low. I will post a ST chart tonight. The correct Hurst phasing IMO then for the $SPX is as follows:
Last 80 week low July 2, 2010
Last 40 week low March 16, 2011
Last 20 week low August 8, 2011
Last 10 week low Oct. 4, 2011
If this phasing is correct, I expect a sharp rally (bear rally) to continue from here into another high due by mid-week next week (~Oct. 12th). From there the $SPX will decline into its final lows for 2011 with a minimum target of 1050. The coming low could be late Nov. into mid-Dec. It will be a very important nest of lows for the larger Hurst 4.5 and 9 year cycles as well as the 18 month and smaller cycles (2.5, 5, 10, 20, and 40 week cycles).
GLGT.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst 10 week cycle low
I am starting to feel like my old self these days. On the path to better health.
I think yesterday marked a 10 week cycle low. I will post a ST chart tonight. The correct Hurst phasing IMO then for the $SPX is as follows:
Last 80 week low July 2, 2010
Last 40 week low March 16, 2011
Last 20 week low August 8, 2011
Last 10 week low Oct. 4, 2011
If this phasing is correct, I expect a sharp rally (bear rally) to continue from here into another high due by mid-week next week (~Oct. 12th). From there the $SPX will decline into its final lows for 2011 with a minimum target of 1050. The coming low could be late Nov. into mid-Dec. It will be a very important nest of lows for the larger Hurst 4.5 and 9 year cycles as well as the 18 month and smaller cycles (2.5, 5, 10, 20, and 40 week cycles).
GLGT.
cheers,
john
hi lee,
The estimate for the next market top is the week of Labour Day. I base this on the expectation of a rally (or consolidation) for 4 - 5 weeks, or about 1/4 the current 20 week cycle (off the Aug. 9th low). This is just an estimate for the time being. In essence, I'm looking for the 5 and 10 week cycles to top out by that date, and if we are in a bearish cycle, it should also give the top for the 20 week cycle and a reasonable left translated high. If you believe the 20 week cycle low has been made Aug. 9th, it is best to sit and wait for that timeframe before thinking about swing trading short for the decline into the coming 40 week/18 month low.
As for the Sensex, you are correct that it made a 40 week low earlier than the $SPX and likely it is well into its last 20 week cycle now leading into an 18 month cycle low. Beyond that I can't offer much and I don't have time to do more detailed analysis.
I'll catch up with you in September.
cheers,
john
hi Chris,
I think today's price action supports the 20 week low being behind us. I'll be sticking with this phasing and look for the 40 week nest of lows in late Nov. As I mentioned yesterday, I think the next short point will only come after Labour Day. It will take time for the the 20 week cycle to top out.
I'm off to Iceland tomorrow for a couple of weeks. It should be an adventure and I hope I can keep up with the gang.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
hi Chris,
With such volatility, it is getting pretty hard to pick out the smaller cycles. I still think that nominally May 25th should have been a 10 week low, but it failed, setting up the market into a bearish mode. That 10 week cycle off the mid-March low thus expanded to 13-14 weeks. Bearish.
That said, Sentient is taking June 16th as a 10 week low. Sentient is still looking at the Aug. 9th low as the 20 week nest of lows.
So the last 5 week cycle lows off the chart below are then:
June 16th
July 17th
August 9th
I should also note that the DOW transports put in a new low last week, which suggests/confirms that any bounce will be weak.
I'm was done trading longs as of early last week. I won't be looking at anything short until we get past Labor Day.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
hi slinky,
Technically, today is really bad. As for cycles, last week low simply created a pause for the ride down into the fall.
cheers,
john
India Hurst Cycles
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=66173323
cheers,
john