hi lexus,
Making market predictions with the news flow these days is a bit of a lottery. However, looking at phasings and the cycle periods for the larger cycles, I have the following given a late Nov. low (eg. 23rd):
<in calendar days and assuming today is a 5 week low>
5 week cycle would be 22 days along (28,28,28 avg. 28 days)
10 week cycle would be 50 days along (70,73,56 avg. 66.3 days)
20 week cycle would be 16 weeks along (20,17,21 avg. 19.3 wks)
40 week cycle would be 37 weeks along (35,34,37 avg. 35.3 wks)
18 month cycle would be 17 months along (18,19,16 avg. 17.6 mths)
54 month cycle would be 50 months along (54,53,53 avg. 53.3 mths)
9 year cycle would be 8.7 years along (last cycle was 8.9 yrs)
So while the 5 and 10 week cycles will be a bit short into that timeframe, the larger cycles are very close to averages.
Will markets hammer out a yearend (Christmas) low? Possible, but I somehow think that we may see a straddle here as the 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows form. A low here in the coming few weeks and a year end rally up into the winter with another decline into spring lows is what I think is likely. I like the idea of major market lows in May 2012. But this is a "guess" at this point. TWT.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
AI
