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Lol. I did not because I'm keeping my position. It's already worth basically nothing so I'll ride it out.
Pretty obvious the frank relapse arm of the active group for AML is done. They'll "evaluate" and will probably come back with just raising the dose level if they decide to continue that portion. This would just be a hail mary unlikely to work out. I've said multiple times in the past I never expected this to be the mover here and it clearly wasn't. The MRD+ arm of the active group is still showing promise.
1st patient went MRD- at 32 weeks.
2nd patient went MRD- at 8 weeks.
3rd patient showed stable disease for 24 weeks and then had second transplant.
4th patient MRD reduced 70% at week 4. Still being monitored.
We'll count patient 3 as a failure but they didn't give many details. Patient 4 hasn't been monitored long enough but the reduction is solid. The other patients went MRD- well after 4 weeks so hopefully this one does as well. This is where the focus should be on the active group. Obviously, adjuvant is still where we need data.
Lymphoma is where the therapy showed the most promise but data is a long way off. Pancreatic is a toss up with the trial not even set to start until the end of the year.
The above all means absolutely nothing if they don't have cash and right now they don't. They are absolutely SCREWED when it comes to their cash position and I would guarantee they have very limited options. They have been pretty consistent with their cash outlook in that they expect it to run INTO Q3. They will need to raise cash prior to then so I expect something to happen by July. As of right now they have two options available to them; The LPC deal and their ATM. The LPC deal is basically worthless. If the shared limits are split adjusted they could tap that entire deal right now and only come away with ~$2M. They tapped their ATM for ~$200K last year. They are also limited in what they can get from the ATM; $9.8M worth of shares.
If they were being honest last year about looking internally at their BoD for financing options then that could prove to be a very valuable source of funds. I think this is honestly a pipe dream. This more than likely means John Wilson but at at this point in time he has, either from personal funds or through Wilson Wolf, already provided enough funding to buy the damn company outright. I wouldn't expect to see another dime from him with how this has played out but as a co-founder of Marker who really knows.
The more likely option is to do another secondary offering. This obviously decimates current shareholders and they will need to unload a ton of shares to get any meaningful cash. At these share price levels they don't have enough authorized shares to make much of a difference. This also doesn't work if they don't have buyers. At this point there might be a few people willing to take a gamble but they will have all the negotiating power and it will be a horrendous deal for Marker.
Care to provide your source for this? Specifically the any other antigen infusion.
Is what it is. Like you said, it's typical behavior. If constantly posting garbage to message boards without actually engaging in meaningful discussion is the only thing that gets them through their day the so be it, lol.
There is no need for me to have a sense of urgency. I don't run the company. People can panic and complain on message boards all day but that won't change anything. I try to stick to the facts and information we have access to and make my own decisions based on that. Management has indeed dropped the ball plenty of times and I sure hope they get their act together or one of the large holders lights a fire under them but me, or any other retail investor, panicking about things beyond our control is just stupid. If someone thinks management will completely blow this up then they should certainly sell and move on. I don't think this management team is great but I'm here because the science showed potential and until it doesn't anymore I'll stick around.
I hate that I'm replying to you bit I'll bite. Please direct me exactly where in my post you responded to that I attempted to defend management?
Probably not for a while. The enrollment delay for the manufacturing improvements really screwed that timeline up. If we're lucky we could get some interim data by the end of this year but I won't be counting on that. Probably going to be next year sometime. The adjuvant patients need to be monitored for at least a year. The only thing they will really know prior to a year is if patients in the adjuvant group relapse. If that does happen they can be rolled over into the active group but I doubt that information will be shared any time sooner than when interim or final data is released.
Obviously you are entitled to your own opinion so I'm just going to point a few things out given that the discussion is only "CMO leaves=bad" while completely ignoring anything else.
We won't ever know why she left. If she takes another position at a public company then we can infer she got a better offer there. That doesn't necessarily mean she left because her current project was failing. There are always other opportunities and people are inherently going to do what they think is best for them. Koneru was making $350K w/ Marker. Maybe she got an offer somewhere else for more money. There are so many reasons one would leave one job for another. Again, we'll never know her intentions. On a side note, if the trial is actually failing it is mostly her fault as CMO. If that is the case then it's best she move on anyways.
That being said, if you are going to assume she is leaving because the data is bad then it can only be the active AML data. I don't know how many times it needs to be said but the active AML data was never going to be a game changer. The MRD data could prove promising but what we need is adjuvant AML and lymphoma data. Any promise in pancreatic data would be a bonus. I'm going to assume that she is smarter than us plebs and understands this.
You can think and say what you want about why she is leaving but the very real fact is you, and all of us, have absolutely no idea.
Are you basing this on the idea that she must know that the data is subpar and is leaving for greener pastures?
She better not get anything
Don't really know what caliber she really was. They'll need to bring in another CMO so we'll see how that goes. At this point if anyone is going to get this somewhere it's going to be Vera.
Not great losing your CMO. Would be nice to know why she is leaving though. Everyone likes to put all the blame on Hoang for the failings of the company but Koneru would have been the one leading the path forward for the product development and given where we are maybe a change could be a good thing.
NEA and Aisling are the only two currently worth keeping an eye on. At this point they, and the rest of the institutions and insiders, have made the same mistake all other shareholders have. Don't really know how I feel about that. Additionally, if any change is going to come it will need to come from the large holders via voting against board recommendations. Tall task since Steve Elms, managing partner of Aisling sits on the board, and NEA , from my understanding, has a board observer. They don't get a vote but they definitely have some pull. I have to assume that both NEA and Aisling approve of how the company is being run. They are privy to information the rest of us don't have. If they did not approve they definitely have the influence to make change.
It depends on whether or not the patients treated were MRD+. These patients were from cohorts 4 and 5 of the study which is using the new manufacturing process testing different doses. The results theoretically should help determine which dose level they will use for the trial. These cohorts do not specifically define MRD positivity so there is no guarantee that the patients were MRD+.
It isn't until they finally get their act together and start enrolling their actual trial that we will see the split off in the active group of frank relapse patients and MRD+ patients.
Enrollment was supposed to resume last year so hopefully we get some enrollment numbers with their next news dump that should be next week.
He has explicitly stated in the past that he doesn't need to do DD because people on random internet message boards do enough for him.
No they weren't.
~1.3M split adjusted. Let's keep all the facts straight. And they will expire worthless if the share price isn't over $50 by October. It could be 100M warrants. It literally doesn't matter since they can't be exercised.
Did you even read the PR? Those were issued to the entities that purchased shares in the offering done concurrently with the merger. No Tapimmune or Marker management or insiders received any of those warrants.
I didn't mention those because you were talking about TPIV insiders. Those warrants were issued as part of the initial financing. They expire in October and are worthless right now.
If that's your opinion I know I'm on the right track with my thought process.
Who cares? What is your fascination with Dart and Eastern Capital? They were huge in financing Tapimmune but have had pretty much zero role in Marker. They don't matter.
He can't because they didn't and he won't because he knows he is arguing in bad faith. He already admitted last year that it looks like they didn't do the merger to escape with cash. He must have forgot he said that. Oops. I just posted that discussion from last year. He'll continue to skirt your question until he comes up with more garbage to spew.
Yes, utter garbage and what I'm trying to tell you is that Tapimmune management is completely irrelevant to Marker. We've had this discussion before the last time you brought this up.
HERE is your post spewing this nonsense about TPIV management rolling in dough. HERE is my reply in which I detailed prior TPIV management and their ownership upon the merger. Three people, two of which are still with Marker so they have not "escaped" as you would put it. HERE is your reply where you basically say, "well, what I really meant was TAP management (even though I literally just posted about them) and the directors that exited. Also Kenneth Dart." HERE is my response listing all the directors and their positions again showing that they did not "escape" with a bunch of cash.
Lastly, HERE is your final reply to that back and forth where you state, and I quote, "Appears not really enough cash to motivate someone to do a merge as an escape."
So, what is it? Did they escape with a boatload of cash or did they not? Seems you can't make up your mind.
Tapimmune is completely irrelevant right now. Stop trying to make ridiculous arguments based on absolutely nothing. I know this is all we can really expect from you but it would be nice if you could actually make a valid argument rather than just clutter the board with utter garbage.
If indeed they are able to get the PII classified as pivotal then it would allow them to skip a PIII which would improve the time to market. Obviously this depends on the results they produce. I will only be able to accept the delay of the PII completion if the manufacturing improvements they made show better results. If results don't improve they just wasted a year of time and resources for basically nothing. When they paused enrollment in the trial early last year I said they are taking a big risk on these manufacturing improvements. There was going to be short term pain regardless. We're seeing that. If the improvements pay off then the short term pain should be worth it in the long run. If they don't pay off then they just backed themselves into a corner.
The data that we were supposed to get by the end of last year was the first data set from the newest manufacturing process. Without it we really have no indication as to whether these manufacturing improvements helped or not. Additionally, because they paused enrollment the data will be very limited since the sample size will be too small. Hopefully they can get their act together soon and release the data.
On a relatable side note to management's communication failings. In my previous interactions with the company I feel pretty comfortable saying that they rely very heavily on their contracted IR firm. I believe this has failed them time and time again and probably played a role in their lack of communication. It seems they are currently in the process of completely replacing Solebury Trout, finally. If they didn't learn to not fully rely on their IR firm hopefully the next firm at least provides something of value. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
In regard to your comment of management keeping the endeavor funded. I wouldn't really be giving them credit for this. They are currently barely funded. If they keep funding at reduced share prices it is going to get continually more difficult for them to raise the cash they need. As evidenced by their deal with Lincoln Park. If they didn't get that $8M from Wilson Wolf last year they would probably have been screwed. They still aren't out of the woods yet and how they handle this next year in terms of financings will tell us a lot.
I think NEA bought shares strictly to lower their cost basis. At the point of that offering nothing fundamental had changed from the first time they bought in so it made sense to buy more at a lower price point. I think management bought in because they were optimistic that the manufacturing process changed they were making would improve results. That's just my guess. I don't think they were expecting anything ground breaking.
It's pretty normal volume for the past year or so. Nothing shocking about it. Sure it would be nice if management started to get a steady stream of news going that brought more volume in but they can't manufacture news out of thin air unfortunately. I have to assume at this rate the next time we hear from the company will be mid March when they release their annual report. They'll probably hide the AML data in there and hopefully announce the initiation of the lymphoma trial. Should get more info on their off the shelf product too as the first patient is supposed to be dosed with that this quarter. Either way they probably dump all this news in the annual report PR and then go radio silent again.
Unfortunately the company doesn't have the best people making their PR decisions.
Looks like you are just now figuring out what has been pretty obvious for while. Volume has been pretty anemic for a while and small $ amounts have moved this thing for a while.