Pretty obvious the frank relapse arm of the active group for AML is done. They'll "evaluate" and will probably come back with just raising the dose level if they decide to continue that portion. This would just be a hail mary unlikely to work out. I've said multiple times in the past I never expected this to be the mover here and it clearly wasn't. The MRD+ arm of the active group is still showing promise.
1st patient went MRD- at 32 weeks.
2nd patient went MRD- at 8 weeks.
3rd patient showed stable disease for 24 weeks and then had second transplant.
4th patient MRD reduced 70% at week 4. Still being monitored.
We'll count patient 3 as a failure but they didn't give many details. Patient 4 hasn't been monitored long enough but the reduction is solid. The other patients went MRD- well after 4 weeks so hopefully this one does as well. This is where the focus should be on the active group. Obviously, adjuvant is still where we need data.
Lymphoma is where the therapy showed the most promise but data is a long way off. Pancreatic is a toss up with the trial not even set to start until the end of the year.
The above all means absolutely nothing if they don't have cash and right now they don't. They are absolutely SCREWED when it comes to their cash position and I would guarantee they have very limited options. They have been pretty consistent with their cash outlook in that they expect it to run INTO Q3. They will need to raise cash prior to then so I expect something to happen by July. As of right now they have two options available to them; The LPC deal and their ATM. The LPC deal is basically worthless. If the shared limits are split adjusted they could tap that entire deal right now and only come away with ~$2M. They tapped their ATM for ~$200K last year. They are also limited in what they can get from the ATM; $9.8M worth of shares.
If they were being honest last year about looking internally at their BoD for financing options then that could prove to be a very valuable source of funds. I think this is honestly a pipe dream. This more than likely means John Wilson but at at this point in time he has, either from personal funds or through Wilson Wolf, already provided enough funding to buy the damn company outright. I wouldn't expect to see another dime from him with how this has played out but as a co-founder of Marker who really knows.
The more likely option is to do another secondary offering. This obviously decimates current shareholders and they will need to unload a ton of shares to get any meaningful cash. At these share price levels they don't have enough authorized shares to make much of a difference. This also doesn't work if they don't have buyers. At this point there might be a few people willing to take a gamble but they will have all the negotiating power and it will be a horrendous deal for Marker.
My DD is not a substitute for your DD
AI
