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SPX takes out pattern/FIB support 1923.04 marginally
- The US unemployment rate is at a seven-year low.
- The number of job gains in July was revised up to 245,000 from 215,000.
http://www.businessinsider.com/august-jobs-report-september-4-2015-9
- at tricky point, a complete triangle contains 5 knots, see where it breaks out...
session low 1919.92, ongoing
supports: 1923.04, 1915 +/-
reference chart (may not fit), for conceptual illustration
http://www.esignal.com/support/advancedget/elliott_wave2.aspx
24125 & SPX
Here is the link to post 24125
09/03/15 SPX
session is in progressing
high 1975.01
Low 1950.79
- In the ongoing session 09/03, SPX deploys another 0.4045 movement.
- 0.4045/0.4465 is normal for wave type 2/B
- It bounces off the support zone 1902-1915,
- and hits resistance 1975.30/0.4045/Frame 2. (ATH-Recent Low)
- frame 3, 4, and 5 suggest there is a support around 1948
- frame 2 and 4 suggest the upper rail resistance is 1999-2001
- the dominant frame is 4.
“QT” Means Money is ALREADY Getting Tighter
FYI FWIW
Forget the Fed’s QE. “QT” Means Money is ALREADY Getting Tighter
Mike Larson | Wednesday, September 2, 2015 at 4:20 pm
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/forget-the-feds-qe-qt-means-money-is-already-getting-tighter-73145?t=ezine
But guess what? Money is ALREADY getting tighter around the world, Fed or no Fed.
You now, can see it in the rising junk bond spreads I told you about a couple weeks ago. You can see it in the collapse of the carry trade index I highlighted a few days ago. And according to fresh research from Deutsche Bank, things are only getting worse – with “Quantitative Tightening” (QT) rapidly replacing “Quantitative Easing” (QE).
My take: More QT means less “funny money” floating around to inflate global asset prices.
We’re going to see upward pressure on Treasury bond yields.
The Shanghai stock market will be closed Thursday-&-Friday
as China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.
Beijing - The night before the big military parade
photo: http://i.guancha.cn/news/2015/09/02/20150902223245942.jpg
Under heavy pressure, South Korea President arrives
photo: http://i.guancha.cn/news/2015/09/02/20150902155635130.jpg
Old Friend is coming on 09/03
photo: http://i.guancha.cn/news/2015/09/02/20150902072304681.jpg
Rehearsal photos: http://www.peixunwang.com.cn/file/upload/image/2015/09/02/1441160792393857.jpeg
http://i.guancha.cn/news/2015/08/04/20150804080411706.jpg
http://i.guancha.cn/news/2015/08/04/20150804080411945.jpg
source:
http://www.guancha.cn/military-affairs/2015_08_04_329244_2.shtml
http://www.guancha.cn/local/2015_09_02_332852.shtml
09/02/15 SPX
review:
- 08/09/15 SPX
- 1560.33-2134.72, 0.382/1915.30, 0.4045/1902.38.
- I mentioned 1905 couple times in Q4/2014.
follow up:
- selloff on 09/01 (1903.07) dropping right to support levels at 1902-1915
- daily closes below these levels to signal a new wave down is unfolding.
- the process using simple Fibonacci series:
- (1) set up multiple initial target zones
- (2) and then zooms in the corresponding Fib points.
09/01/15 Gold
- Gold
- tested the support 1116.27 (chart 1) successfully
- if it stays above 1132-1134
- good odds to test 1150.9. (chart 2)
Sep 01, 1147.40-1133.80, Ongoing
Aug 31, 1135.20 1125.00
Aug 30, 1133.80 1130.80
Aug 28, 1140.30 1123.10
Aug 27, 1128.50 1117.00 <---
Aug 26, 1146.00 1116.90 <---
09/0115 DJI
Review:
08/25/15 09:38:02 AM
- DJI trajectory projection up to 0.382-0.4045.
- plus one Fib ratio will be 0.4465-0.5 (16860.22)
Follow up:
- DJI bounces off from the low 15370.33 and hits 0.4465 at 16669.97
- 16669.97 (08/28) vs. 16701.36 (0.4465, 18351.36-15370.33)
- Now, DJI starts the inner pullback from 16669.97
- projects to poke into 16144.27-16089.68, another 0.4045-0.4465
- so far the session low is 16124.39, ongoing
- moves above 16363. the inner pullback is terminated.
Oil shoots higher on OPEC talk
OPEC concerned by oil drop, ready to talk to other producers
Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:29am EDT LONDON
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/31/us-opec-oil-idUSKCN0R01GY20150831
Weekend: Tony Caldaro tamed his bullish E-wave outlook
dindindon Sunday, 08/09/15 08:51:00 PM
Anthony Caldaro projects (reiterates) his wave PV (P5) will bring the SPX to 2530-2630 by Q1/Q2. ( link ). (Edit: first release)
IMHO, the chance is slim. Tony is a technician, he flips side quickly too.
weekend update
Anthony Caldaro Posted on August 29, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/29/weekend-update-515/
Our worse case scenario, for the bull market, was that the SPX 2135 high ended Primary wave III and a three wave Primary wave IV was underway.
Cycle wave bull markets unfold in five primary waves. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011. Primary III completed in May, and Primary IV may have completed at this week’s SPX 1867 low.
With Primary III topping in 2015 much of the historical references we have used this entire year no longer apply. ... ... ... We are in unchartered historical territory.
Fifth waves (in Primary waves I and III) during this bull market, have been notoriously weak.
If Primary wave IV ended at SPX 1867, as expected, we can make some projections for Primary wave V. Since we use Fibonacci price clusters (edit: note 1) to determine these types of targets, we will offer them now as guidance going forward. There is a cluster between SPX 2214 (Edit: note 2) and SPX 2219. Then single hits at SPX 2302, SPX 2397, and then a cluster between SPX 2522 and SPX 2571. The two clusters suggests the minimum and the maximum upside targets for the rest of the bull market.
dindindon Friday, 01/30/15 11:12:30 PM
A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves, as illustrated in the following figure
link to Basic Tenets of the Elliott Wave Principle
Friday, 11/21/14 11:00:28 AM
- 2130.46 Middle term upper target
- 2213.50-2316.26 Long term upper target
Saturday, 01/17/15 04:53:59 PM
While the general consensus has reached an Overwhelming Bullish Sentiment
level. To be bullish, the serious test remains in between 2069.93 and 2130.46.
Saturday, 05/02/15
- 2130.46 has been highlighted for more than 5 months
- Middle term target 2213.50
- Long term target (pending)
Saturday, 05/30/15 04:45:35 PM
- Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
>> Who believes these numbers?
Who is listening? What do they hear?
US ask for transparency, China ask for transparency
Fox vs. Coyote
China Launches New Asia Development Bank
Shannon Van Sant October 24, 2014 8:56 AM
http://www.voanews.com/content/china-launches-new-asia-development-bank/2494903.html
Spokeswoman Jen Psaki has said Secretary of State John Kerry has made clear directly to the Chinese that Washington welcomes the idea of an infrastructure bank for Asia, but strongly urges that it meet international standards of governance and transparency. She said the U.S. has concerns about the ambiguous nature of the AIIB proposal as it currently stands.
China urges transparency in Pacific trade deal
(08-04 15:20)
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking_news_detail.asp?id=65089&icid=a&d_str=
China hopes that the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact can be transparent and open and contribute to free trade and investment along with other arrangements in the region, an official said. Shen Danyang, spokesman with the Ministry of Commerce, said China has been closely watching the negotiations.
reverse rate --> reserve rate <EOM>
Shanghai Composite Index re-test the former support zone
An upward breakout (3324-3121) would be very bullish.
According to Chinese web site, The reverse rate and fund rate cut will be effective on September 6, in between, the People’s Bank of China starts the 1400 billion Yuan SLO (Short-term Liquidity Operations) as additional tool to manage cash supply, Repurchase agreements and reverse repurchase contracts with a maturity of less than seven days will be the main tools of the so-called SLOs. This micro maneuver has been applied earlier this year.
5 mins, daily, and conceptual illustration
session 08/28
>> Once again zero posts.... (Here is Why:)
The US economy is doing better than we thought
US GDP beats expectations
MYLES UDLAND Aug. 27, 2015, 8:31 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-second-quarter-revision-august-27-2015-8
The US economy grew even more than first estimated in the second quarter of 2015.
The second estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product showed the economy expanded at a pace of 3.7%, better than the 2.3% initial estimate and topping expectations.
08/25/15 MISC.
DXD, UGLD/DGLD
TWM, QID
TBT/TLT
Volume Dynamics: Nasdaq 3430
- DJI first phase low target zooms in: 14151-14159 (14100-14200)
- the pattern of the first phase is, as usual, in debate, either a-b-c or 1/2/3/4/5. (not productive)
- DJI second phase low target: pending
Gold bearish and bullish projections
08/25/15 Gold price pullback
14:40:21 GMT - Real-time
1,134.70 -18.90 -1.64%
Aug 25, 2015 range: 1156.20 1134.20
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
my concern materialized,
Gold is doing its first meaningful pullback from trend line resistance 1169.12, so far it ducks on the support 1132-1134 (0.382 H-L); It is not yet reaching the “incurable” status; Gold is always speculative and tough to play.
Volume Dynamics:
08/25/15 07:16 AM
Watch out now under 1130.
We're going to 1006-1013 once that breaks.
That does not mean it can't test 1130.
Talking about BREAK.
Monday, 08/24/15 01:50:53 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116460024
Be aware that (In Today’s session) Gold stops tracking with USD inversely in spite of the latter one moves down whopping $1.3. So far, Gold price is afloat near the 1151 support, too much crosscurrents ...
China's Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates by 0.25%
http://profit.ndtv.com/news/global-economy/article-chinas-central-bank-cuts-interest-rates-by-0-25-1210831
China has launched new stimulus measures to boost the country's flagging economy.
The People's Bank of China cut its key lending and deposit rates by 0.25% on Tuesday. The one-year lending rate is now 4.6% and the deposit rate is 1.75%.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/25/investing/china-central-bank-interest-rates/index.html
one year fund rate cut 0.25%,
one year deposit rate cut 0.25%
Institutions' Yuan reverse rate cut 0.5%
(in Chinese simplified fonts) http://www.guancha.cn/economy/2015_08_25_331913.shtml
North, South Korea reach deal to end tense standoff
John Bacon and Kirk Spitzer, USA TODAY 6:44 p.m. EDT August 24, 2015
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/08/24/korea-talks-continue/32250565/
North Korea expressed regret over its provocations; In return, Seoul agreed to halt anti-North Korean messages broadcast across the border.
08/24 DJI
- DJI session low 15370.33
- It is vey colse to the 0.382@15315.66 (error +0.36%)
- fits in between the revised low targets 15547.35-15315.66.
- looks like the session low is actaully the initial low for the First Phase,
- However as i mentioned earlier "Indices trajectories in the next few sessions will give clue what is going to move"
Saturday, 08/22/15 03:43:43 PM
- it is time to give an update on DJI projection
Gold is afloat "near" its support 1151
Be aware that (In Today’s session) Gold stops tracking with USD inversely in spite of the latter one moves down whopping $1.3. So far, Gold price is afloat near the 1151 support, too much crosscurrents ...
Gold Futures - Dec 15 (GCZ5)
1,154.70 -4.90 -0.42% as of 17:54:00 GMT
Aug 24, 2015 range: 1169.50 - 1152.00
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Volume Dynamics:
...So if it doesn't perform here and drops below 1151, it can lose a lot in a hurry under that...
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116438729
Armstrong:
... The closing on Friday at 1159.60 implies initial support should begin at 1151. If this holds, then we can see the pop up to the 1170-1188 area....
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116434034
1150.90
Entertainment: Bull & Bear
The famous Chinese relic collector Cai Mingchao ( Cai prounced as ts'ai ) spent more than one million Yuan for his "inspiring" statue
photo source: http://www.guancha.cn/society/2015_08_24_331765.shtml
Projections reconciliation
I have underestimated the Down Leg power on SPX & DJI, did a fair job on RUT. Indices trajectories in the next few sessions will give clue what is going to move ..
Proj. Actual
SPX 1902.38 1867.01
RUT 1109.37 1105.93
DJI 16444.23 15370.33
in session, DJI drops more than 1000 points
DJI session low 15370.33.
in session, DOW drop more than 1000 points.
i sold DXD but not at the best prices, this is a fast market, too bad, did not buy SPXU (beating my chest loudly...)
i will wait for dust settling and re-project ...
Eric Hadik and Larry Edelson
both did excellent projection job, with very good lead time to warn the investors
dindindon Wednesday, 07/15/15 04:06:59 PM
quote:
Larry Edelson Senior Analyst, Weiss Research
On October 7, 2015, the first economic supercycle since 1929 will trigger a global financial crisis of epic proportions.
It will bring Europe, Japan and the United States to their knees, sending nearly one billion human beings on a roller-coaster ride through Hell.
Shanghai Composite Index gap down
- Gap down, SSE session low drops more than 8%
- session low 3210.61 Ongoing, http://gu.qq.com/sh000001
- projection 3216, zone 2, bottom chart
- > 1500 stocks' circuit breaker tripped ( Shaghai + Shenzhen Exchange)
- Last line to defend is 3121 before “Gate Open”
08/19/15 10:57:21 AM
Monday's Gold Outlook:
Re-post with permission
Volume Dynamics: http://volumedynamics.com/
August 23, 2015
OK so I took an extra careful read today on the gold contract... so look, there's plenty of volume here, gold should be able to climb mountains with these levels of volume, and that's the point, it's underperforming, in that there should be more price appreciation, the way we see it here.
Price can always catch up... So the overhead resistance we need to pay special attention to from here is from 1179-1182 and roughly 1197-1203 levels. So those two zones comprise the major overhead resistance, we don't expect this to hang up here, we should see direct line moves into resistance with wide price spread intraday - that's how it rallies best or anything come to think of it. Anyway - that should set the standard for the upside performance.
So far there's no real weakness here, except stealth, as noted per underperformance. So those are our upside expectations for next week, but realize now this, we are about 90 pts off the low, and the damage from the 1920 high to the 1070 low is about 850 pts... 90/850 pts. = "around 10%" so, fundamentally - if these goldbugs can't get this pig out of the barn with strong volume and all the currency and other turbulence... just what exactly are the circumstances that will generate that level of paranoia?
I shudder to wonder... all I can say is that it is a modest rally especially with all this volume here, which makes me wonder how deep the sellers really are buried here, and if they ever step out of the way.
So far this is a very tradeable rally, money can be made either or both ways on good short term trades. So for me, it's going to have to show me like 1204-1211 at a BARE MINIMUM to buy this story... and from there some more decent percentage, at least closer to .382. So really now, something is wrong if this doesn't step right into 1204, 1251, because that .382 = something closer to 1400... So if it doesn't perform here and drops below 1151, it can lose a lot in a hurry under that, especially if there is a sudden slow boiling frog moment when the goldies realize they've been had ... AGAIN... and all of a sudden we're back to unloading, and the business of making lower lows.
08/23/15 Gold
Dindindon Thursday, 08/13/15 10:55:47 PM
1111.25 0.2360 support
1125.18 0.3236 ( 1126.30 08/13/15 )
On a closing basis, gold price closes above 1125.18 to usher in another bounce into middle September
Dindindon Sunday, 08/09/15 08:51:00 PM
dollar may have reached the strong resistance, thus a good news for Gold bugs.
Posted on August 21, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/tag/gold
As far as Gold is concerned, the Weekly Bullish stands at 1188. That is still well above the market with the major resistance starting at 1205–1210 followed by 1225–1230.
Armstrong on Gold
(08/22/15 12:22 PM indirect quote via Russ)
link
On the Daily Level in gold, the target resistance is at 1170 and 1205 on our system models with technical resistance at 1181 area. The closing on Friday at 1159.60 implies initial support should begin at 1151. If this holds, then we can see the pop up to the 1170-1188 area.
Perspective, Weekend Bill Merriman
Dindindon Wednesday, 08/19/15 10:57:21 AM
Who Do You Believe In? ( Cycle? E-Wave? TA indicators? Fundamental? Astro?)
MMA Comments for the Week Beginning August 24, 2015
Written by Raymond Merriman
http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-august-24,-2015/
Last week, the importance of the Chinese devaluing their Yuan was discussed as effectively starting the process of depegging - breaking - its relationship to the U.S. Dollar. I described the change in policy as likely to have unintended consequences leading to new problems in today’s currency wars, especially as the Federal Reserve was right on the brink of starting to raise its own rates. But China’s pre-emptive currency strike complicates a process that was already in motion (i.e. strengthening of the US Dollar) (Edit: see this post). In fact, it now causes the Federal Reserve to pause and think that maybe this is not the right time to raise rates. Last week the equity markets of the world came to the same conclusion, and the global plunge in equity prices accelerated. ..........
August 21, followed by August 26, and ending with August 31. (The events in) this (period) will offer a glimpse on September 17, If this is a preview of what to expect in mid-September, then instead of the “irrational exuberance” oftentimes associated with “panic and hysteria,”
In terms of equity markets and geocosmic signatures, the next two weeks are critical. They will indicate a very serious washout may continue, or a bottom and sharp reversal unfolds. I think we could see both, followed by another washout before the December.
reference info - China Multi-tiers capital market
In China, there are two public stock exchange markets:
Shanghai Stock Exchange, SSE
Shenzhen Stock Exchange, SZSE
Both the SSE and SZSE operate the Main Board while the SZSE also runs the Small & Medium Size Enterprise Board (“SME”) and the ChiNext Board.
The Main Board is designed for large scale companies which intend to solicit large amounts of public funds. A comay to be listed in Main boad has to meet a set of strigent requirement, one of the qualification is a consecutive 3-years profit.
SME adopts the same listing requirements as the Main Board while targeting companies with a smaller scale for equity flow.
The Nasdaq-Alike ChiNext Board provides an important platform, with less stringent listing criteria, for those enterprises engaged in independent innovation businesses and other growing venture enterprises to solicit public funds.
ChiNext: PE is around 81 down from 128.4 on 06/16, 5 year averaged 58.9
There are 2883 registered companies in the mainland China stock listing, 145 mainland companies registered in Hong Kong stock listing.
China Shares - A Shares, B Shares, H Shares
http://chinese-school.netfirms.com/China-shares.html
There is a circuit breaker for each stock Up/Down 10% in the same trading day. On 07/09 there were 1442 stocks tripped on circuit breakers, the total market value of these tripped stocks has less than 30% weight for A shares.
according to China International Capital Corporation Limited (CICC), Chinese family owns $8.65 trillion depository accounts, less than 5% depository accounts invest in stock market. This explains why the economy and market performance has lower correlation. during the market slowdown in June, the retailer sale moved up 10.6%
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201508/t20150812_1229455.html
assorted info:
main source - KraneShares (in Chinese simplified fonts) http://stock.qq.com/original/zqyjy/s349.html
08/22/15 DJI
- indices are moving on its own pace
- it is time to give an update on DJI projection
- second phase Dec/15-March/16 (To be adjusted)
- 08/21 session low 16459.55 (vs. 16444.23),
- critical support 16389.32
- initial low might over-run to 16389.32 +/-, i don't know the odds.
08/14/15 03:30:28 PM
DJI first phase initial low targets projection
08/22 DJI first phase final low targets (exclude Crash scenario)
RE: Key pivot/gauge 1976 +/-
Can we say we will see The-First-Low-To-Bounce reversal date as soon as coming Monday?
discussion:
index closed below the pivot 1976 has “forced” the bullish Tony changing his tone “reluctantly” (Primary V target at 2530-2630 by Q1/Q2 2016 ).
imho, once this pivot got accessed, the odd to move above 2213 before end of 2015 is below 50%.
Anthony Caldaro Friday update
Posted on August 21, 2015
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/21/friday-update-460/
Looks like Primary IV is underway
Things Are Getting Pretty Serious <EOM>
>> Exciting times !.....Zero posts !
Hot forum: SPY Technical Analysis (SPY)
- more than 175 posts in one hour after market opening.
Home > Boards > Other Markets > ETFs > SPY Technical Analysis (SPY)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/SPY-Technical-Analysis-SPY-7449/
08/21/12 SPX
intraday low 2012.75 ongoing
08/21 OE day.
- All short term Low targets set on 06/20 transpired.
- Key pivot/gauge 1976 +/-
Saturday, 06/20/15 03:27:12 PM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=114774224
imho: Pullback below 1976 +/- is the confirmation we may not see 2213.50 for a quite long time.
Short term low targets:
based on retracement
2066.04, 2039.66, 2017.20
Deere profit tumbles 40%, cuts fourth-quarter sales outlook
Agri sector's “ABCD” companies that dominate global agricultural flows:
– Archer-Daniels
- Bunge
- Cargill
- Dreyfus plus
Deere (DE) Stock Tanking in Pre-Market Trading After Guidance Cut
ByAmanda Schiavo | 08/21/15 - 08:54 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of Deere & Co. (DE - Get Report) are down by 4.85% to $86.25 in pre-market trading on Friday morning, after the heavy machinery equipment maker cut its full year 2015 financial outlook.
link
Deere profit tumbles 40 percent, cuts fourth-quarter sales outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deere-profit-falls-40-percent-111410901.html
Gold Futures - Dec 15 (GCZ5) 1,165.60 +12.40
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
chart: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/t24_gold_en_usoz_home.gif?random=0.33544921875
USD index down 3 in 2 weeks.
US Dollar Index - Sep 15 (DXU5)
95.44 -0.34 -0.35%, recent high 98.42 on Aug 07
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 mini Futures ES1:IND
Sep 15 2,011.75 -13.75
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ES1:IND
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/contracts.html?r=CME_ES
USD/Gold Archive:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116152821
Flash China Caixin PMI falls to 47.1 in August
Flash China Caixin PMI falls to 47.1 in August
CNBC.com staff | @CNBC
The preliminary reading for a key Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to a near six-and-a-half-year low of 47.1 in August, below a Reuters forecast of 47.7, underscoring persistent sluggishness in country's vast factory sector.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/20/flash-china-caixin-pmi-falls-to-471-in-august.html
"breaking news", intraday critical supports "accessed" <EOM>
breaching intraday critical supports
may make reversal up now, .... (say NO or Yes? .... #$^$@!^&% )
- R2K 1176.93, one of the first phase low targets is "almost materially" breached.
- So far, this is "merely" the first leg of the first phase.
- second phase Dec/15-March/16 (To be adjusted)
--- FiB/Trend Line Actual (ongoing)
SPX 2041.08 2041.77
R2K 1176.93 1176.71
DJI 17037.76 17041.85