The New CS Board

[dindindon]

Monday's Gold Outlook:

Re-post with permission

Volume Dynamics: http://volumedynamics.com/
August 23, 2015

OK so I took an extra careful read today on the gold contract... so look, there's plenty of volume here, gold should be able to climb mountains with these levels of volume, and that's the point, it's underperforming, in that there should be more price appreciation, the way we see it here.

Price can always catch up... So the overhead resistance we need to pay special attention to from here is from 1179-1182 and roughly 1197-1203 levels. So those two zones comprise the major overhead resistance, we don't expect this to hang up here, we should see direct line moves into resistance with wide price spread intraday - that's how it rallies best or anything come to think of it. Anyway - that should set the standard for the upside performance.

So far there's no real weakness here, except stealth, as noted per underperformance. So those are our upside expectations for next week, but realize now this, we are about 90 pts off the low, and the damage from the 1920 high to the 1070 low is about 850 pts... 90/850 pts. = "around 10%" so, fundamentally - if these goldbugs can't get this pig out of the barn with strong volume and all the currency and other turbulence... just what exactly are the circumstances that will generate that level of paranoia?

I shudder to wonder... all I can say is that it is a modest rally especially with all this volume here, which makes me wonder how deep the sellers really are buried here, and if they ever step out of the way.

So far this is a very tradeable rally, money can be made either or both ways on good short term trades. So for me, it's going to have to show me like 1204-1211 at a BARE MINIMUM to buy this story... and from there some more decent percentage, at least closer to .382. So really now, something is wrong if this doesn't step right into 1204, 1251, because that .382 = something closer to 1400... So if it doesn't perform here and drops below 1151, it can lose a lot in a hurry under that, especially if there is a sudden slow boiling frog moment when the goldies realize they've been had ... AGAIN... and all of a sudden we're back to unloading, and the business of making lower lows.