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Short interest quite high.....
13,821,391 shares have been borrowed and dumped back in the market as of March 15th...that's about 5% of the outstanding.
Question for Emblem holders.....
Have your EMC shares been changed over yet? Mine just showed up today
I don't think consolidation is over....
I would not be surprised to see Alefia tragetted for acquisition....the medical side is going to be huge and with this merger Alefia is now incredibly well positioned, but I don't think they have the resources to be the hunter, just the hunted.
Link to the ALEF board here
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Aleafia-Health-Inc-ALEF-36225/
Time for all the Emblem Refugees to migrate....
I think we might see some profit taking given the nice (more than a little) bump in the PPS so far this year....and some EMC holders might do some selling to round off some odd lots I think.
Is this Master Reseller Agreement (MSA) meaningless?
I just did some searching today, trying to find anything that referenced a MSA between Verizon and any other company, I came up completely dry...nothing. I'd assumed that there must be some other company out there that's announced some form of MSA with Verizon....but if there is, I can't find anything on it.
A few years back Vuzix touted a "major deal" with Lenovo, at the time the world's leading PC PC compnay. Obviously given the results after that "major deal" it didn't amount to much, and maybe nothing at all. Maybe this Verizon MSA will be exactly the same....something that sounds good, but being forward looking nobody can complain if its yet another lead balloon for Vuzix.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vuzix-signs-deal-with-lenovo-and-announces-m100-smart-glasses-product-launch-into-china-268417272.html
Vuzix pumpers have been wrong for years about huge growth....
Wounded Warrior was touted as a Mega Deal not long ago, same with the Toshiba deal. And of course who can forget the Alexa pump last year that sent the PPS over $10 per share.
Short interest isn't even that big, 6 million odd out of 27 million or so shares outstanding is only about 22%....sizeable yes, but its far from being among the largest shorted stocks. While other Nasdaq stocks have short interest up in the 40, 50, 60% range, 20% or so isn't close to being a top pick for short players:
http://www.highshortinterest.com/nasdaq/
I do get it though....2018 was the worst year ever for Vuzix for net loss, even after all the hype and promise. Pumpers need to hang their hat on something, so blaming short selling instead of pathetic factual performance does make sense.
Results crapped the bed again....
Missed on both revenue and guidance, the only area Vuzix exceeds expectations is with the amount of money the lose. Now it looks like they're hyping this Verizon "partnership"....same old same old. Previously its been SAP, GoPro, Toshiba, Alexa....years back Intel. It seems there's a never ending list of companies that Vuzix tries to hitch its banner to, but then the results come out and they have to change the sheets again.
Good luck....I don't think short sellers will attack again, not much to be gained with a microcap with a capitalization struggling to hold a value of $100 million.
I just got back from vacattion.....
Was down in Panama over the break and while away volume took off....now I'm back and its cooled off again, I need to get on another plane. At least we broke out of that tight trading channel between the 50 and 200 dmas, it was stuck there for 19 consecutive trading sessions by my count.
With low volume it looks like we drift....so long as we stay above the 50dma its all good in my view....I do think volumes will spike upward again before too long.
If you own stock in Emblem......
Post merger. for every share of Emblem that you own you will receive 0.8377 of an Alephia common share. Put another way, for ever 1,000 shares of Emblem you own prior to the merger, you will own 83.7 shares of the new company, but I'm not sure how fractional shares will be handled.
The newly merged company will trade under the symbol ALEF, eventually to be listed on Canada's main TSX Exchange as opposed to the current Venture Exchange listings.
Right now EMC.V is trading at $1.86 CDN while ALEF.V is trading at $2.29 which means that currently a share of EMC is worth 81.2% of an ALEF share.
I'm thinking it'll be either Friday or next week that everything will be settled, and then we'll see what ALEF trades at.....the current $2.29 would be a nice bump for those whose EMC shares convert....have to wait and see though.
Let's say you own 10,000 EMC shares, they're worth $18,600 currently. After conversion the 10,000 shares is reduced to 8,3777 but at $2.29 the value would be $19,183.33...but again, we'll have to see how it plays out afer the merger is completed.
The answer seems a bit ambiguous......
I'm assuming that email is genuine, as it it is then it seems to leave more questions than it answers.
-How much cash is left?
We know that as of Sept 30 the company reported having $23.5 million in cash left. I would assume that number has dropped to about $18 million as December 31st, but I can also see it being even lower.
There were legal costs associated with the now dismissed shareholder lawsuit, as well as in the litigation against Pearson. Then there's the $1.5 million they announced they'd be paying to allow them to compete in the defense/1st responder sectors. And of course there's the usual ramp up costs they're always talking about....
I would not be surprised if cash had dropped to just $15 million by EOY.
-If not issuing shares what other levers are there?
In December of 2017 and then in Jan of 2018 they raised over $40 million. The Januare raise brough in about $30 million alone.
To raise a similar amount now would would mean issuing about 10 million shares, so I can understand why they wouldn't want to pull that lever. It could be even more than 10 million if it were to be a shelf offering instead of an underwritten offering....and given the stock's performance over the past year I think finding a firm to underwrite an offering could be more than problematic.
While I figure anything is possible I have a hard time seeing anyone willing to lend them money....annual revenue of ~10 million against annual losses of over $20 million....I don't see that happening.
In my opinion the most likely lever is a convertible bond, and if that happens pay close attention to the details as convertible bonds can lead to a so called 'death spiral'.
We seem to be pretty much range bound....
From the end of Sept 18 to now the bottom end of the range is right around $3 and the top end around $3.40....there's been a few very short breaks either below or above that range, but that's where I'd put it.
If the volume was better it might attract some HFT/Day Trading types....10% is a good scalp. But with volumes sometimes struggling to even hit 10,000 momo players and scalpers aren't going to touch RVX/RVXCF, they like liquidity.
I've sent IR a couple nasty emails, sarcastically congratulating them on being proactive, timely and transparent (their words about how they operate) in setting expectations, as in with the Jan 31st expecation of further financing news within 30 days....
If their goal is to exasperate the market, then they're doing an outstanding job. I'm not worried at all though....just have to be patient.
I think this link will work...
Tell me if it does:
https://stocktwits.com/MadGhost/message/155681176
The user ID is MadGhost
My guess is short covering.....
Short interest has been up around 5 million since Sept, go back to June and it was close to 6 million. When shorts borrow shares and dump them back into the market, the money that is collected has to be held in a margin account...a good chunk of it anyway. As the PPS drops those margin requirements ease of course, but they still have to buy back to lock those profits in.
It looks to me like shorts covered off early up to about 10:30 or so...and then after driving the PPS up over $4 it looks to me like they re-loaded and dumped a bunch back.
There's a guy on stocktwits sharing an email from IR that says the company has other options and that they won't be doing another share offering....no way to know 100% if its genuine but I suspect it is.
Not long to wait to find out how much money they were down to at the end of 2018, that imo will be very telling.
Price volume movement....
Longer term I believe it pays to note what volumes are doing with price moves...are days with higher volume more prone to be + for the PPS or -?
You can chart it using OBV, short for On Balance Volume.
The idea is that a move on bigger volume is more significant than a move with comparatively smaller volume. For example, if the PPS jumps from $1.75 to $1.80 on volume of 4 million and then goes down from $1.80 to $1.70 but on volume of just 2 million....the move up is said to have double the weight of the move down.
Of course a lot of retail investors focus more on the PPS than on the volumes being traded.
New Seeking Alpha Blog post...
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/15663412-joe_retail/5276987-can-anything-save-vuzix
All over but the crying?
I think the biggest red flag, beyond the pathetic revenue numbers and lack of meaningful sales....the biggest red flag is the weak cash position.
Looking at the balance sheets of companies like North and Magic Leap, to say nothing of the giants like Microsoft, Vuzix is obviously little more than a gnat, their claims to being an industry leader notwithstanding.
End of September they reported being down to just $23 odd million....with the burn rate coming in somewhere around $2 million per month. Add in the cost of amending the non-compete agreement that they announced in October ($1.5 million to be paid over 6 months) along with the costs of supposedly ramping up production....I think that burn may very well have increased.
That's 5 months that have gone by since they had $23.5 million. So how much is left? My guess is they're probably down to about $10 million now, give or take a couple million. About 6 months worth of cash in other words.
How confident would potential customer be with placing a large order with a company that's almost broke? To me it would be like buying an extended warranty from Sears....
The last raise was 3 million shares at $10 after the PPS had climbed up around $11.50. If they're able to find an underwriter now what might the numbers be? 15 million shares at $2? Even that seems a stretch....maybe they'll be forced to go the Convertible Debenture route, of the so called 'death spiral' variety?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_spiral_financing
Hololens is obviously the leader...
But then as you've mentioned, that's a segment that Vuzix isn't targetting....then of course there's the VR glasses that come with video games, but I don't think Vuzix is competing in that space either...that space seems to be dominated by the giants like Epson, Samsung, Acer etc.
In terms of entreprise I have to think that a company contemplating a decent sized order...that Vuzix's weak cash position has to be a concern. Only $23.5 million at the end of this past September...if they've continued burning throough about $2 million p/month they're getting close to only $10 million....only about 5 or 6 months worth of cash left.
And what revenues indicate........
Is that hardly anyone in the sectors you name, like industrial, airports and warehousing....hardly anyone is buying. Remember the Wounded Warrior "mega deal"? That looks like it was another bust, same with the Toshiba deal. Big talk and no walk.
Today's news was a flop
You never know until the market reacts of course, but when I saw the Qualcom news before the bell I figured it might help pump the PPS some....maybe not as much as hyping the Blades taking advantage of the Alexa plug-in, but at least a bit.
https://www.androidheadlines.com/2019/02/vuzix-m400-smart-glasses-mwc-2019.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The linked article notes that Vuzix is designing the M400 to be the best in their category, which makes me question what category that is....Is it the one with the least demand? Obviously Hololens' space is the category to be in for the leaders.
You're right about that....
Hololens is generating $100s of millions in sales and Vuzix doesn't have a product that can compete obviously...AR/VR is already a multi billion dollar space and Vuzix is not even a blip with annual revenues of ~$10 million and losses of ~$20 million. Blades and these M series units are looking like Betamax...actually that's not fair, Betamax had much better sales if memory serves.
You are the one who brought up KOPN....
Of course one can always go back 3, 4...heck 10 years, that's why I just looked at the past couple months. For the past 2 years KOPN and VUZI have both been a dog's breakfast of course if you want to go back that far.
Obviously the big leader here is Hololens, with revenues in the hundreds of millions....while Vuzix constantly talks about a bright future, but then keeps reporting pathetic results, $1.9 million in revenue for the MRQ is obviously beyond pathetic for a company that touts itself as a leader.
Look at KOPN year to date....
Its kicking VUZI's rear end....KOPN is up over 60% YTD while VUZI is down over 20%. If you go back 6 months they're both big losers, Vuzix though is doing much worse. KOPN is down 28.4% over the past 6 months while VUZI is down 42.95.
Go back a full year and they're both down over 50%....50.75% down for KOPN 56.71% for VUZI. If you push it back 2 years, then its pretty much even.
So over the past 2 years VUZI has performed far worse than KOPN....that's just the facts.
Obviously they're down big
I take it you're referencing this:
https://pressoracle.com/news/2019/02/23/blackrock-inc-purchases-90968-shares-of-vuzix-corp-vuzi.html
I know shareholders often look for a smoking gun to justify their decisions: "See, Blackrock bought...so obviously I'm right".
I'd offer up a few examples, Enron, Nortel, WorldCom, Sino Forest....all had big institutional investment, all no longer exist. How were big institutions so wrong? Its pretty simple really.
Institutions have billions of dollars under management....a small or microcap fund only has a few thousand options for the billions of dollars they're managing...so they spread it around. Vuzix is in the Russel 2000 index, at least until the index its re-evaluated in a few months. Institutions will often simply mirror an index....and based on Vuzix having a MCap up over 200 million last year they were included.
Fair enough, earnings soon.
I think around March 15th. What are you expecting? I think they'll need to change the sheets on the bed again with another $5 million quarterly loss and a record annual loss.
I'm thinking Top-Line will be the catalyst....
Full data will obviously take longer....but 2 to 3 months after the trial ends there should be Top-Line out. Obviously its all predicated on success, but if we hit 30% or higher...and then higher the better, then I think we move like Amarin did, and maybe even better.
So many questions while things are so quiet.
When will the trial finally end? What will the RRR number be? What's happening with a US (Nasdaq?) listing?
Its almost time to put a fork in Vuzix I think....
But at least some of those working there have a trip to Spain to look forward to. I imagine its a sweet company to work for, trips to Vegas every year as well as other nice locations like Barcelona....and no problem when losses keep piling up, just offer up another round of financing.
I spoke to the VP of IR last week.....
He reiterated the guidance provided in the most recent slide deck presentation for the ending of the BETonMACE trial, H1 2019 or June 30th 2019...that is an "expected on or before date". He also said the longer the trial goes on that it will increase the power and statistical significance of the results.
Of course after they stop dosing, then we're looking at another 2-3 months before Top-Line results would be published.
In the interim the company signaled that they are "anticipating" one or more subscriptions for shares/warrants by start of March. Of course with that being forward looking its not written in stone but in pencil. If they haven't arranged financing by the start of March I don't expect we'd see any news with a status update...that's not the way Resverlogix rolls from my experience. It strikes me that we should only expect news when they are absolutely required to put it out.
That prediction has been made continually since last Jan....
There have been some short lived sucker rallies since that $11+ high water mark in Jan of 2018....but the overall trend is down/down and down some more.
The latest presser looks to me like the company still hasn't found a killer app that would make the Blades a desired consumer item....
In any case we'll see if all those predictions of Q4 being a big winner prove accurate, or if they'll report losing another $5 million or so....cash resources have to be getting pretty thin if they havne't made a dent in the burn rate. Burning cash likely means yet another dilutive raise...I doubt they could get a traditional loan with their revenues and expenses being what they've been.
Assuming there are 50 million shares in the public float....
And I think that's a reasonable guess...those shares currently have a value of $150 million CDN or thereabouts.
If BETonMACE pulls an Amarin and leads to RVX attaining a MC of $5+ billion USD, then those same shares would be worth $1.5 billion....and that's even allowing for dilution.
So what might be the motivation to possibly hold the PPS down? If the PPS was climbing with the company engaging investors with regular updates and heaven forbid even a webcast like they used to do back in 2007/2008....do you think shareholders would be willing to part with shares ~$3 CDN....shares that in the above scenario would be headed to $30+?
I doubt it, in fact I think retail would squeeze tight and buy more.
I'm not counting on it....
I think they'll push it to the middle of March or maybe even April. This company has a habit of setting expectations and then frustrating shareholders by not delivering. And I don't think its an accident either...
Now whenever they set an expectation, especially something based on a timeline, I toss it in the trash....I'm confident they'll get it done, but they seem to want to irritate retail shareholders at every possible oppourtunity. Meh....
Are you claiming to have insider information?
Two choices, either we have a situation where you have access to and are disseminating insider information, which is obviously a big no no.
That or you're pulling bull out of your nether regions in an effort to pump the stock on bogus rumours.
So which violation are you guilty of sparky? My guess is #2, its been done before....Apple, Intel, Facebook, Micrsoft....over the years pumpers have claimed a whole bunch of made up buyout stories.
Hepalink gets to load up cheap again....
If BETonMACE hits 30% RRR or higher Top-Line and explodes to a valuation in the billions of dollars, USD not Canadian Loonies.....then Hepalink's Lis are going to be thrilled that Resverlogix was being so quiet, allowing them to load up cheap imo.
And I'm not going to hold my breath on the 'anticipated' further financing(s) expected in the next 30 days. Resverlogix has a history of providing this kind of guidance around time-lines and then not meeting it....I do think they'll raise the money they need, but my ''expectation'' is that it will be done in such a way that they maximize uncertainty by going into March with retail investors wondering if they'll get it done or not.
IMO, pffft...it'll get done, just not according to the time-line they put out.
The market likes the deal....
From ~$1 CDN before the annoucment up over $1.40 right now....and ALEF is trading at $2.10 which means more upside if conversion happens around this price.
I bailed a while ago...
I was never a typical long, wass just thinking another P&D type situation would come in advance of a raise....looks like the market has stopped believing forward looking hype and wants actual tangible results.
I'm guessing that from all the money raised last Dec/Jan that probably only about 10 million or so is left....
Your math is sound to my eyes....
I invested in EMC, just a toe dip....shortly after it went public, bought two lots, one for my open account and the other for my TFSA. The buy in my open account was first, and I paid $2.80...what a mistake. I forget what I paid in the TFSA account, but I bailed on it quickly when I had the chance to take a small profit. I never got that chance with my open buy at $2.80 so I just left it....it was a small position and I figured, meh...what the heck, I'll just forget about it and maybe Emblem will be a long term winner.
I would have forgotten about it almost entirely, but someone asked me in November if I owned any Weed stocks...this was the only one, and I said it was a total non-performer....I had been asked my opinion about some CSE listed stock and I said that there were probably 100s of P&D type weed plays out there, and that if you played it right it could be a decent trade...but I doubted it would be a long term winner.
That convo got me looking at EMC again and checking out the chart at the end of 2018 I figured a bottom was forming....so early this month I increased my position almost 10 fold....still not a large position for me, but more meaningful.
Thanks to that big average down I'm now green to the tune of about 10%....not much of a gain for a speculative play, but better than losing.
I'm also curious about the discrepency in valuations....those looking at EMC or ALEF right now....I think its a no-brainer if you assume the deal will go through.
I'm not worried either...
I have almost 0 concern they'll raise the money they need, but it does represent an area of uncertainty, especially with regards to specific details.
Will they announce a share offering? If they go that route, how many shares, at what price, will warrants be involved, at what price...etc etc.
Same with something like a licensing agreement....where, how much, how structured, would warrants be involved?
Every potential avenue splinters into a myriad of cascading questions....and I just want to know what they're going to do and how. I should underline that that there is always the possibility that we could get to Jan 31st with no news and no Top-Line data....which would mean a breaking of the convenant requiring Top Line by that date...at which point I assume Third Eye would be in a position to foreclose on basically all the company's intelectual property...
I don't think that will happen but I have to acknowledge that it is at least possible.
Taking it right down to the wire....
By my reckoning, a reckoning confirmed with a phone conversation with the VP of IR, Resverlogix has a bit less than $15 million remaining on the loan they took out back in May of 2018. That loan comes due after 12 months, in May of this year...I don't know the exact date.
But the loan has 2 key covenants that are both mentioned in the most recent MD&A filing. Resverlogix is required to maintain a cash balance of $5 million dollars....based on the money they've raised and their burn rate it strikes me that they must be pretty darn close to that $5 million minimum requirement. *It may be over $5 million but that's nitpicking...
The other convenant requires the company to release top-line data by January 31st, by Thursday of next week in other words. Frankly I don't think that's in any way possible. The only way I could see it happening would be if BETonMACE has already hit the required 250 MAC events...and the company simply decided not to share that information. Assuming the trial is still running however, in my opinion that means there's no way they can get Top-Line numbers out by Jan 31st.
That was part of the reason for my phone call to the VP of IR recently...I was basically sure, but I wanted to be 100% certain that if the loan was paid off....that the Jan 31 Top Line requirement would be out of play so to speak. I was assured it would be...if the company pays off the remainder of the obligation the loan is settled and done with.
To my way of thinking that leaves only 2 possibilities, and both are coming up hard and fast against that Jan 31st deadline.
1) A negotiated extension on the convenant requiring top-line data, and possibly even a new loan agreement to refill the company's shrinking coffers....a blend and extend type of arrangement.
2) A cash raise of some kind....another share offering, a licensing deal or CVR....something sufficient to retire the loan with enough left over to at least get BETonMACE to the finish line and the release of top line results.
If no news is out by Jan 31st after the closing bell I'll be making another call to the company....frankly I'd rather not bother, I'd prefer to see an update of some kind and a lifting of the cone of silence we've been in for over a month now.
Peace all
Believe it or not, I am too....
Got in after it bounced of the $4.50 area, I was at a Carribean resort paradise over CES and now I see the PPS has dropped back.
Strange company, but I don't seem them engaging in their usual plethora of fluffy PRs. My broader based long term opinion hasn't changed, this company has not come close to proving that they can survive as a viable biz without having to constantly dilute shareholders to finance operations. But with that being said there are some pretty wild and significant pops and drops in the PPS.
Cheers
Thinking another pump is a good bet at this point....
Decided to go long, after watching Vuzix since Sept of 2016 I think I have a decent enough feel for what's coming....and I think another pump like what happened last year has a good shot. While I think $11+ like it went to last year might be pushing things, ya never know....
I do think the company is going to have to dilute soon in order to fill the bank account back up....and its hard to get people excited and buying with a PPS that's trending down. Its not like they finance operations and payroll out of profits after all.
Was Thursday the start? We shall see.