Thursday, March 07, 2019 12:32:19 PM
I'm assuming that email is genuine, as it it is then it seems to leave more questions than it answers.
-How much cash is left?
We know that as of Sept 30 the company reported having $23.5 million in cash left. I would assume that number has dropped to about $18 million as December 31st, but I can also see it being even lower.
There were legal costs associated with the now dismissed shareholder lawsuit, as well as in the litigation against Pearson. Then there's the $1.5 million they announced they'd be paying to allow them to compete in the defense/1st responder sectors. And of course there's the usual ramp up costs they're always talking about....
I would not be surprised if cash had dropped to just $15 million by EOY.
-If not issuing shares what other levers are there?
In December of 2017 and then in Jan of 2018 they raised over $40 million. The Januare raise brough in about $30 million alone.
To raise a similar amount now would would mean issuing about 10 million shares, so I can understand why they wouldn't want to pull that lever. It could be even more than 10 million if it were to be a shelf offering instead of an underwritten offering....and given the stock's performance over the past year I think finding a firm to underwrite an offering could be more than problematic.
While I figure anything is possible I have a hard time seeing anyone willing to lend them money....annual revenue of ~10 million against annual losses of over $20 million....I don't see that happening.
In my opinion the most likely lever is a convertible bond, and if that happens pay close attention to the details as convertible bonds can lead to a so called 'death spiral'.
If you want to taste the fruit, you have to go out on a limb. But if you wait for the herd to move out on the limb....the branch tends to snap.
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