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JT early on seemed pissed, distressed and or annoyed by the late notice adcom. He remained composed and spoke like a leader who knows what he has. the fud will spew tomorrow and who knows for how long. eod reduce it stands on its own .. the endo/metabolic division is comprised in part by endocrinologists who have included vascepa in SOC for a large segment of their population. I like those odds
possibly going to get a broader label beyond 135 and statins
I look at this as a generational buying opportunity .. back up the truck
i'm buying with both fists!!!!
adom in November .. mother f'r's
the only thing that spooked me a bit on the sales rep hire was the qualifications were entry levelish? I would think they would steal a national sales manager type and begin the incestuous process of relocating his/her crew to amarin. my 2 cents is they co promote in addition to having 800 reps in addition after coverage gets restored we should see a massive DTC. with the various indications i'm very comfortable stating a 20 bil market cap within the next 1.5 years
I would think they have to be incentivized in some fashion. who the hell works for 55k fighting traffic all day waiting to see doc or P.A.?? i'm don't forget you can add another 25% on top of compensation for payroll taxes, etc.
nobody mentions the possibility of a partner in U.S. might be a cost effective way to ramp sales and have a suitor get more familiar with the asset
the right DTC message and these skeptical docs will be a non issue.. nobody on a statin won't want Vascepa especially with its safety profile..I've been taking it off label for over a year .. my doc had no clue but put me on it because he knew I was educated on the NCE
I predict we are going to see a massive DTC advertising campaign. According to a 2016 poll conducted by Medscape, 62% of Physicians said they would or might prescribe a innocuous, even placebo treatment to a patient who didn't need it but demanded it. With Vascepa's placebo like safety profile, the pushback will not be from the doc so once co pays are dramatically reduced everyone on a statin is going to want to give Vascepa a try off label or not … can you imagine what type of commercials that can be produced around Vascepa? and its increasing RRR over a longer period of time. the spot could feature a middle aged person growing old because they took their Vascepa. quick snippets of life events in 60 seconds; weddings, ballgames, graduations, vacations, etc.... everyone on a statin is going to want a chance to dance at a grandchild's wedding.
400 million buys you a lot of spots on prime time TV
the old adage I guess applies .. raise money when you can not when you have to... I would have like to seen the convertible notes route at low interest rate but convertible at say 35 pps . so this finances sales reps, DTC and research for other indications. they no longer need a substantial ramp after expanded label they can weather most ups and downs that may come their way.. I added afterhours
STS, the nice thing about Cologuard is you do it every 3 years. You can do it off label out of pocket versus a colonoscopy every 5 years. Miss rate on both is around 5%. the benefit of CG is in the proximal colon where the sessile serrated polyp's(they lay flat) reside a marginal prep makes them harder to find by the doc. CG doesn't ever have tired eyes...i'm not a doc
12 million shares traded .. price remains unchanged that appears to be quite orderly
I personally don't give a hoot about what Kennedy does with his money.. if he sold it all I wouldn't sell a share
yeah that's the pattern … I own EXAS and the CEO, Kevin Conroy, sold a boat load in the 17's few years back the stock traded at 117 today. So I guess they are pre planned and in EXAS's case it proved to be the opposite of where the stock was headed. How many yacht's can you ski behind
minnybio, we smoke from the same pipe :) our experience tells us DTC will bring patient to the doc with talking points printed out from the amarin website. that's right .. the consumer will lead the way to greater scripts. minimum out of pocket needs to happen concurrently or else the doc gets squeamish and that has its own set of educational problems and another DTC explaining how medicare covers it along with 98% of all payors. yes we need a co promote at a minimum of 2nd in the bag
In the mail today from United Health Care, I received a letter suggesting I get my triglycerides checked annually. It stated high triglycerides(no number) can contribute to health problems. This isn't a history thing because I've never had trigs above 75 been with UHC for many years.
its an injectable with G.I. side effects shouldn't be an issue
anyone familiar with Jelis de risked their investment in amrn prior to read out. Now I didn't expect 25% MACE .. but I was comfortable with the stock going to the 7-9 range after top line read out and I bet accordingly.
MNBio, quick summary HLS realizes they won the lottery with Vascepa. Amarin sold the rights prior to read out which explains it all.
While some debate coverage which I have found to be lacking. I bought more :)
Idk BB 6 bil market cap for a potential 90 mil pop U.S. not with standing row ...DCF modeling not happening in our case. The guidance needs to change
JT said more physician contacts with rep resulted in more scripts per doc. I think he used 7 as THE number. Well JT there are 400k physicians who order statins/metformin. Amarin has identified 50k? I get the cardio/endo target and JT goes on to say 90 million americans may benefit from Vascepa or are in the profile of those with tryg's of 135+. GS doesn't have an analyst covering amrn???? what am I missing in all this nothingness? I've never seen a biotech with this opportunity be so under the radar
folks imo you underestimate the deep relationships an elite rep. has within his/her territory.. for instance, Pfizer's rep's average 14 years with the company. field reps are not some homogenized widget you plug in and get a similar result. we have a paradigm shifting SOC doc's will need to be educated by a trusted source. broad coverage will play a large role as well
DTC and broad coverage will change this almost overnight .. the DTC will direct consumers to amarin website to print out a discussion guide with doc. the consumer will be educating the doc at this point. 400k docs order statins and t2dm meds .. amarin will need a seasoned partner to co promote vascepa … everyone knows my opinion why.. our pps is all about rev growth pretty simple
NOPE-Ranjo
absolutely no way amarin GIA in U.S. .. they partner or sell. the hiring would have begun long ago the clock is ticking
thanks HD .. great calendar
I'm pretty sure they are not completely incompetent which the above info suggests. I think they realize it's indefensible to be so slow on EU, especially when they stated there are "slight differences" between US and EU filing, thus the brush off answers, which only leads me to believe they think there is no way they are ever going to have to worry about it since it will be the concern of BP.
I agree 100% KCSVEN
the fact that they aren't hiring 1000+ reps now tips their hand towards the future. They speak as though label expansion is a given and I agree but they are not preparing for it. A rep is going to need a minimum of 6 months in the field to be productive. vascepa is a paradigm shifting therapy that will need to be differentiated in the minds of prescribers from other omega-3's. my pcp told me last month on my wellness check appointment if the vascepa script is 'too expensive' he directs his patients to a DS alternative. Of course there is no such animal... he is a Harvard trained physician
the spend is going to increase in 2019 because of PR which is now a luxury problem .. DTC will begin in earnest 1st of October my concern will be the amount of reps at that point.. only way I can see this working for all concerned is partnering with a big pharma.. this will be promotionally sensitive meaning more doc contacts more scripts; if we could be 2nd in a big pharma reps bag we won't have to sell. how many docs order a statin? how many docs order metformin or equivalent? how many docs order generic lovaza? i'm guessing that number in total is north of 400k. We have a coverage problem that amarin can't solve by hiring more reps and taking the time to get them productive in the field.
about 9% of float not too bad
this is way too big an opportunity to GIA they need to partner or hire 1,000's of reps.. 360k pcp's U.S. alone who prescribe for their T2DM patients. If this is going to be promotionally sensitive which means multiple contacts per doc produces more scripts we will need reps with established deep relationships.. no way amarin pulls this off unless they think the patent moat is not an issue meaning its more about supply/mfg processes.
because of its nasty side effects lol.. hopefully she finds a different cardio
yup under promise over deliver that's what the best CEO's do imo
Zip, they will be raising money whether that's convertible shares at a low interest rate but they won't wait for cash flow to fund the DTC.. this is going to be all over the TV similar to viagra
GIA strategy may/ will mostly likely include hiring more reps but the biggest piece will be a big pharma partner who will have vascepa #2 in their bag. DTC will create a lot of consumer demand but we need a huge pharma sales presence to educate the docs and the insurance coverage needs to be greatly improved. docs are presently recommending DS or prescribing generic lovaza for an indication that is solely vascepa's market because of the lack of across the board insurance coverage and knowledge of DHA and the differentiation of Vascepa
like I have mentioned 5x's on this board. Vascepa lowers insulin resistance regardless of trig. level. My A1C went from 6.2 to 5.6 no other changes diet, exercise or metformin like stuff. My trig's were 65 dropped to 53. The only way I got a script was from a like minded PA that believed in my narrative on systemic inflammation being the root of all evil and that EPA in a therapeutic dose could lower insulin resistance this was a year ago. Every pre and type 2 will benefit from Vascepa this is millions of scripts in U.S. and 100 million + world wide