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Have a good weekend folks. For some frank reading, here ya go...
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1242626160.php
ROFL! You got me!!!!
Yes, and you played with the oils again, no?
I don't know what happened to the post I just made (is anyone having problems? I keep getting "server busy" messages)... but I was wondering if you took that Harley out & had a great trip!??
I saw that "geeeeezzzzz" & didn't even have to look to see who wrote it! It was like "home Toto, home"! Glad you're back!
Yes, and we pitched a big opposition to that stance the whole time, no? They ignore, they keep their jobs. They ignore, THEY still get paid a pension... regardless of what happens to the plebs, no?
I'll save someone a google-- PLEBS: ancient Roman society common people; the masses.
Is it so unbelievable (now) that when the markets re-test the March lows (& might break thru them) that this high PE ratio will not be the talk of the day? And that the downturn in markets was required to bring the stocks in line with earnings?
I bet (right here, right now) that PE ratios will be all over the WSJ then.
Don't you wonder if Bill Gross is talking his game most of the time? Everytime I hear him, I'm keenly aware that he has a vested interest in just about everything he says (real or projected). I spend more time trying to solve how he will benefit from an interview than with any other speaker.
Well now... in all honesty, I spent more time analyzing Bernanke and Greenspan, but you get my point.
Of course our standard of living will fall. I don't know any boomer who thought it would be the same or better.
I would love to see some techno-savvy guy take all the shots of Woodstock or Haight Ashbury & remove the "youthful" ... replace it with "retirees", and then pick what might be happening on the stage to bring the masses together.
Think about it. There is no other way to twist a legislative arm without breaking the bank to pay lobbyists.
This one is scarey, but should always be looked at in a 3-part manner: 1) Retired w/SS eligibilty, 2)retired w/medicare eligibility and 3) OPEB - Other Post Employment Benefits.
I certainly have strong feelings about OPEB. Those are just about equal in my eyes as full blown legacy costs. Legacy costs are currently showing EXACTLY where they bring the payor... to his knees.
The first two items? The Concord Coalition is all over it. It's a story and shocker that will play out in our lifetime. The government has waited tooooooooo long to deal with SS/MED costs & now the winds are destructive and not in their favor... in fact, the winds are eroding all of their previous projections.
Thank god the Concord Coalition is all over it. If I were retired, I would certainly help them in any way I could.
No Sir!! This is 'as reported' earnings!
"Today's chart illustrates that 12-month, as-reported S&P 500 earnings have declined over 90% over the past 20 months (with over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported for Q1 2009), making this by far the largest decline on record ... "
When the media/mkt/govt is luring the investor to 'buy', it would be nice if the 'buy' price was right. Most investors buy because stocks look cheap when, in fact, they are expensive.
This chart is equivalent, IMHO, as the grocer luring you to buy a loaf of bread for $7 a loaf. (It's clearer with this example, no?) !!
But, you have a point... forward projected earnings would yield a different graph. Trouble is..... forward earnings are best guess/hope... and they can be revised down shortly before reporting.
I'll read your link if you'll look at these two charts (May 15th followed by May 22) ... copy & paste if the links don't work. In all other environments, this would be a bullhorn call to short.
Can't wait to hear the your (and the boards') thoughts on it.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090515.htm
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090522.htm?T
I'll read your link if you'll look at these two charts (May 15th followed by May 22) ... copy & paste if the links don't work. In all other environments, this would be a bullhorn call to short.
Can't wait to hear the your (and the boards') thoughts on it.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090515.htm
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090522.htm?T
We sing "We have no dinero" to the tune of "we have no banana's today"?
Yes, I remember. And, Yes... we had the right criteria for the discussion!
The jest of the matter was that foreign interests would (did) increase their holdings of US debt... that we were (did) get loans akin to 'signature only'... that foreign countries holding our currency or debt as 'reserve' would (are) suffering the consequences... that foreigners would (are) putting all their eggs into one basket by feeding from the US bond/treasury trough... that there would be (are) consequences.
We bottom lined it (after all that discussion) to "what if we had an auction & no one showed up?".
The bridge is almost in front of us... Obama said in Feb'09 press conference "You know, if all we're doing is spending and we're not making things, then over time other countries are going to get tired of lending us money and eventually the party is going to be over. Well, in fact, the party now is over. " (my post 46215) I was shocked that an American President would say that on national television!!!
Is it t-e-r-r-i-b-l-y "odd" that they announced that the Central Bank will be at the auction now??? Filling the gap of exiting foreigners??
This is what we hoped would never begin to happen!!!
Mike & Nick...
This one finally makes sense... he's really laying out the bear case coming...
http://www.viddler.com/explore/RoySi/videos/140/
I'm game... but it seems to me that the 'buy' is on late Friday & the run begins on Tues morning. Buy Fri or buy Tuesday morning?
Hey Court: remember a long time ago when you brought us GOOGLE before hardly anyone used it?
Here's hoping this is one you all will appreciate (very impressive) & get to know. It went live last Friday night:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
15 May 2009 - Bill Goodwin - Computer Weekly
Wolfram Alpha, a search tool, which uses sophisticated mathematics to understand and answer users' questions, is to be launched tonight.
The technology has attracted widespread interest, because of its aspiration to make better sense of data on the internet than current web search engines.
Wolfram Alpha differs from Google and similar search engines, by offering users an answer to their queries, rather than a list of websites containing relevant subject matter.
The technology, developed by Stephen Wolfram, founder and CEO of Wolfram research, uses sophisticated algorithms to build mathematical models of data taken from expert data sources chosen by the Wolfram team.
The software interprets users' questions, written in plain English, and calculates answers from its data models.
In a demo, Wolfram showed how the tool could give the user the GDP of France both in a written format and by displaying graphs.
"One of our objectives is to aim to take expert knowledge and make it easily accessible by anyone," Wolfram said in an interview earlier this month.
Link to a demo of what this new search tool can do (quite impressive):
http://www.wolframalpha.com/screencast/introducingwolframalpha.html
Wolfram Alpha site link:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/index.html
Short term, 30 day, treasuries? If the interest rates move up (as they have), then wouldn't the short term's catch them first???
Got a read on today's action. Thought I'd share it:
...the FTSE 100 and the DAX, EUSTOXX50 have not turned down yet. In fact, it appears that they spent the morning in a basing action... I still expect them to turn down soon, it may or may not happen today. When you can count 5 waves on 30 min chart from the apex of the triangle in those indices you are likely looking, at least, at a temporary top. ...it is best to take our lead now from these Indices...
DOW breaking out to a new high for this bear rally since March may seem a dramatic and important event, but consider that it could just as well be the last trick to ensnare more buyers before this fake rally goes down.
... Precious Metals still strong and I don't expect a serious weakness until the Stock Market reverses in earnest. Oil runs up in sympathy with stocks and may not hold on its own should the Stock Market take a serious dive soon.
... a fresh look at Asian Indices, they all deliver the same message: we are in the last legs of a bear market rally...
I didn't skim past this question, but it takes a better than easy answer.
I printed it out & might be able to respond a day's end.. that's a 'might'...
Goldcorp (GG) & Trinity (TRN) are having a great day
Even short term 30 day?
I doubt that anyone can prepare for that "more virulent inflation than the '70's". Hmmmmmm.
That is precisely why I pay attention to the Gann Angle points (based on data, not voodoo).
But, as logical as the presentation in your first link (I read it in its entirety), he comes to the same conclusion as the traders... read this from the link:
Useful Application Of The Siderograph
Just because rising lines of the Siderograph do not necessarily reflect rising prices in the DJIA, there is one very important benefit in the Siderograph that still remains effective. When the Siderograph makes a change in direction, however minor, it appears that the DJIA also sometimes changes direction exactly at the same moment (+/- 1 or 2 days in most cases). One very good recent example was the mini-crash on October 28, 1997 -- the siderograph correctly predicted the bottom of the sell-off, exactly to-the-day.
Maybe this is why the Bradley is placed into trading models? That brokers use it? I don't know, but when a computer program has instructions to 'sell at EOD' because the core 'modeling' in its program says to sell, then we have to pay attention.
And, from your second link, this is precisely why I pay attention to Bradley:
As Crawford and Eliades' returns indicate, most astrology is of little utility except for the effect it has on others. If you can predict how some will react to what the astrological cycles, perhaps say they will go long on this or that date, then you might be able to get in front of their recommended trades. I study this stuff hoping to find a way to get in front of trades
Thanks for both links!
Elroy! Y-O-U have embarrassed me MORE than Bradley Turns could e-v-e-r embarrass me! LOL!
"..."The Bradley Siderograph is a popular indicator many traders rely on, to get an overview of possible larger turning points in an upcoming trading year. It is known for it's inversions, so it's not so good in showing whether highs or lows are coming but more so ... when major highs and lows can be expected. So using other indicators in combination with the Bradley, could give useful clues about future larger tops and bottoms."...
I have followed Gann Angles (which this board knows... which helped us through EVERY turn in the Nasdaq during 2000-2002.) Nothing else nailed it & we knew at least 3 months in advance. I always posted it, waited to see if it was right, and 3 times traded before the date... knowing the direction of the turn... and preserved more capital in doing so than at any other time.
Bradley, however, is something built into computer models and, in so doing... can force a turn in the market that would otherwise be left to the stars. Therefore, it is worth watching. IMHO--> a strong Gann is, sometimes, worth trading. A Bradley? I just watch. It will take (as did Gann) 5+ yrs before I believe my pocketbook should ... or should not... respond.
There... all embarassment (earned or otherwise) has dissipated.
Very true! Technicians got blindsided across the board. Actually, one of them thought the death nail hit at Friday's close.
Which brings me to this guy... well worth the watch.. ( I ENVY his little buttons at the top that change from 1 minute, 5 minute...... 5 year... 10 year). I wish I had that software!
Like I said, even this guy got blindsided..
I sold the last of LGF (Lions Gate Entertainment) today. I have a strange feeling about trading today. Can't seem to shake it.
I tell you, LFG has some gooooooood things going on, but the shareprice is over 1/2 of the 52 wk high. Could be wrong, but I sold today with a little over 6%.
Bye the bye, 6% spends better than (my "almost" sold price) of 5%. So, I'm a happy camper!
I am sooooooo pleased that you took notes! I hope these indicators work like they have in the past!
But, here's what you need to fix in your notes:
Jun 03 - Small Bradley Turn
Jun 26 (+/- one week): Gann Turn
Jul 14 - Strong Bradley Turn
:)
Hey, I got your email this morning. Yes, I read your article.
This situation goes hand-in-hand with your Sunday statement that the financials 'should be' the weakest link in an S&P downturn. This would put the short & ultra short ETF's on the financial sector as the most profitable of all inverse ETF's. Evidence is mounting.
I still think the problem is timing. It will happen, don't get me wrong, but the WSJ article clearly shows that "if" the worse case scenario unfolds (and that would be over the next SEVERAL months), then:
~~ 1. 17 banks would experience losses which would eat up 2009 revenue but not go beyond that.
~~ 2. 923 banks would go beyond "eating current year revenue" & would gnaw into capital
~~~~~~~ a. 289 of those would have no resulting capitalization problems.
~~~~~~~ b. 634 would be undercapitalized (& in trouble).
Ways they all might mitigate problems? Sell assets.
This is clearly down the road, is a possibility that may go awry at any given assumption point, and (for market bulls trading now) the market chooses to "read, file & retrieve the info if ever necessary". This would be no different than all the digging done in Oct & Nov '08 looking for the answer to "why didn't we see this coming" when, in fact, they all found extensive research, publications, letters, & emails which all clearly identified & cautioned about the probable outcome of all the leverage & derivatives. They will repeat that "Gee Whiz, how?" again & will probably resurrect this enlightening WSJ article.
I believe the opportunity exists for those who "read, wait, & put it in the Urgent File" as opposed to those who file it where it can't be seen. This is to say that TARP bandaids & the outcome will unfold this year; high FDIC insured levels lifts at year end; Money market full insurance levels ends this year. Lots of bandaids disappear & expose the wearer (including 'saver') to capitalism.
I will be right along with you (as you know) looking for that opportune time to go short. It's not here yet IMHO, but is coming again. Sentiment, greed, & ignorance keep it propped up. In it's place will be pessimism, fear, and enlightenment. The first is drunkeness, the latter is sobriety.
Great numbers Nick! Bravo!
Actually, it wasn't a statement about 'respect', it was a high-five on perception, recognition, & aggressiveness! But if you want to pass (or attribute)that bib to ME, I'm taking it! Gaaads, Elroy, I didn't know you noticed!! LOL!!
Eric (greater than or equal to: Busy) is GREAT news!
Share the solar Eric... we gotta have it... when you got time; we are patient.
I think your ECLI (with 60 days down on Chrysler & soon-to-be 60 days down on GM) is going to dip regardless of anything else. I a two month timeframe of "no activity" generating from those two hubs will break many companies who have used resources just to make it to May, 2009.
But, as always, I am VERY glad your business is working the beegeebies out of you! No joke!
Here you go....
"I've had accounts that dropped everything they were doing to take a look at this TALF financing," one Wall Street trader explained. "It was like nothing they had ever seen. It beats any financing that the private sector could ever come up with. I almost want to say it is irresponsible"
We all need to read & weep! I bet the friends of Elroy (who he said were salivating to get in on this) have had to buy bibs... they can't stop salivating...
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/18/news/economy/geithner-talf.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
On the money.... You'll like this one...
Http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5319359/Geithner-enriches-speculators-in-sham-bank-bail-outs.html
US 'sham' bank bail-outs enrich speculators, says buy-out chief Mark Patterson
The US Treasury's effort to stabilise the banking system through the TARP programme is a hopelessly ill-conceived policy that enriches speculators at public expense, according to the buy-out firm supposed to be pioneering the joint public-private bank rescues.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Doha
Last Updated: 6:16AM BST 14 May 2009
MatlinPatterson took advantage of Tim Geithner's TARP matching funds to buy Flagstar Bancorp in Michigan - he now owns 80pc of the shares and the US government under 10pc.
"The taxpayers ought to know that we are in effect receiving a subsidy. They put in 40pc of the money but get little of the equity upside," said Mark Patterson, chairman of MatlinPatterson Advisers.
The comments are likely to infuriate Tim Geithner, the US Treasury Secretary, because MatlinPatterson took advantage of the TARP's matching funds to buy Flagstar Bancorp in Michigan. His confession appears to validate concerns that the bail-out strategy is geared towards Wall Street.
Under the convoluted deal agreed earlier this year, MatlinPatterson has come to own 80pc of the shares while the US government has ended up with under 10pc.
Mr Patterson said the US Treasury is out of its depth and seems to be trying to put off drastic action by pretending that the banking system is still viable.
"It's a sham. The banks are insolvent. The US government is trying to sedate the public because they are down to the last $100bn (£66bn) of the $700bn TARP funds. They think they're doing this for the greater good of society," he said, speaking at the Qatar Global Investment Forum.
Mr Patterson said it would be better for the US to bite the bullet as Britain has done, accepting that crippled lenders must be nationalised. "At least the British are not hiding the bail-out," he said.
MatlinPatterson said private equity and hedge funds were deluding themselves in hoping to go back to business as usual after the trauma of the last 18 months.
"This is not a normal recession and there will be no V-shaped recovery. The crisis has destroyed leveraged companies. We're going to see a catastrophic increase in the number of LBO's (leveraged buyouts) going into default because they're knee-deep in debt and no solution exists since they can't refinance," he said.
"Alfa hedge funds have been making their money by gambling with excessive leverage, so the knife that cuts off leverage is going to cut off their heads as well," he said.
Like many bears, Mr Patterson expects the great crunch to end in deliberate inflation, deemed a lesser evil than outright depression.
"The US government has thrown 29pc of GDP at this crisis compared to 8pc in the early 1930s. The Fed's balance sheet has risen from $900bn to $2.7 trillion to bail out the system. America has to do it because the only way out is to debase the currency, but that is going to lead to some very high inflation three years down the road," he said.
Matlin Patterson, however, has missed the Spring rebound, the most powerful rise in equities in over 70 years. "We shorted the equity rally because we thought it was lunatic. We've kept adding positions seven times, and we're still holding," he said. Ouch!
Didn't they have engines in the rear? Never saw one, but I saw the movie. Stressful!
Great post! It literally 'condenses' most of the readings I have made... the one's I wanted to tell you all.
You've said it better than any of them. This is to say that there are a great deal of folks who are coming to the same conclusion (including support) but none of them have addressed BB positioning of prices. Nice touch. I'll save this post!
I still have the cannon, I still have the gold (but not my stock in GG), and I still have my son-in-law!!
I'm holdin' onto things I deem "dear" & that plan is working so far!
Who, if they could 'shoot it at will', would EVER give up a canon????? !!!!
I could send you one if you promise to shoot it EVERY morning at the front of your business when 1st shift starts! LOL! Let's hope it doesn't 'plow-down' anyone late dashing to the time clock!!
On second thought, maybe we should just raise flags instead of shooting canons for the morning bell!
It's no fable; it's real....
Take LVS or Bethlehem Steel: A myriad of more efficient companies dotted the landscape while these two bohemoths of days past attempted to intimidate perception of their (sic) continued value to our country.
If we let them die, then the more efficient companies could blossom, increase volume, and provide product at market price.
If we let them live, then (with government subsidy or bankruptcy forgiveness), these inefficient companies would continue to hoard market share. They would compete against the lean, hungry, and efficient companies which they would continue to hold at bay. They would be able to sell product at the price of the efficient newbies.
Well now, it appears that we went with the second option and.. for a time... false hope & ultimate futility ran hand-in-hand. They both are gone now; the lean & more profitable companies have been able to step up to the plate... and all of this over the past decade +.
What could possibly be different in the car industry? The outcome. If there is enough support for Chrysler/GM, and that support gives them a lifeline in 'time' to convert to the efficiencies of competitors, then the competitors would bite the dust. It's not a fable... Murphy's law...
Actually, I wonder what disadvantage the propping up of Chrysler & GM... even with them exiting bankruptcy lean... will do to Ford who will still carry their costs. This might be a classic case of the weak, with subsidies and shirking of debt, will take market share from the last guy admirably (though shakily) standing.
Antitrust won't do it. There's a field of issuers which far exceed the monopoly definition. Amex, (remember Diner's?), Visa, Mstr Crd, Discover. The field is too broad.
This is a great discussion & one which I hate to leave, but duty calls (dinner) & I'm still at work. Or.. so the phone call I just got reminded me. Remember, we are three hours later than you!
Catch you all tomorrow. Thank you for letting me vent after what seems to be a "forever" absence in the last 13 days.
I have been reading a great deal & have gained some insights on the market & what prudent folks think of where its going.
I'd like to share that info in future posts.
They might. It's a "build it or you die" fate lookin' them straight in the eyes.
Then again, they might have to have new glasses to realize it! But... oh dear... those execs at GM who sold (quote) "hundreds of thousands of shares" on Tuesday must have had their glasses cleaned, no?