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was just looking at Aluminum prices, they are not far off from a 6 month high. i suppose the problem however is whether there was demand.
Agree - What are your thoughts on what the market is expecting vs what will be?
A market like this will need a lot of excitement to break it out of it's funk i think. I am not so sure i see many positive surprises - likely there will be positive EXPECTATIONS which will be met, but market will only move on forward looking suprises.
One more...the following two would be ST positive as well:
-RSI(2) < 10 on S&P would be a ST positive as well.
-Spike in one day Equity P/C > 1.10
all these only really point to a very ST bounce i think - more of a relief bounce than a bottom of any kind.
Looking back at the times when the VXO has closed above it's upper BB band - in the past 10 years, there were 90 occurrences, with 67 leading to higher S&P close within the next 5 days (74.44% odds). VXO is trading above it's upper bb today, but no quarantee that this setup would be triggered given that the market is trying to stage a turn around currently.
VIX RSI(5) is trading around 78 currently. In the past decade buying the S&P close on such an occurrence resulted in a winning trade 72% of the time (70/97). In recent years, the performance has been even more impressive. from 2007 to today, this strategy would have worked 87.5% of the time.
none of these have beent triggered today since we haven't closed yet.
in certainly is doing something - largest spike in the last 6 months (at least from an intraday view so far). VXO trading above upper BB, and the VIX seems as though it ran too far too fast in the last 4 days.
Those are some of the things that are catching my eyes today - Almost panicy...
i'm tempted to nibble - but not until i run some studies on the VIX and PC. Some interesting observations.
Finacials and banks getting hit hard today.
For that reason and also because i feel i am bordering on greed, i decided to lock in profits from that trade.
I will be looking to re-enter ofcourse...as of right now, the momo seems to be with the bears.
i am not wishing for pain on anyone, but im still holding my sds from june 29th, and wouldn't mind the opportunity to cover lower and reverse. panic would be nice only because it is not that difficult to read, i think
not sure why i wrote '100', that should read '200ma'. s&p lookw like its heading to test that support yet again @885.
snake oil is big money! it is not the system that is making him money, it is the seminars, dvd and infomercials.
Interesting day today - Both Vix and Price divergence as well as breadth and price divergence. Does not bode well for the markets in the short term i think.
the charts give a different impression however - with S&P showing double bottom and bouncing off it's 100MA (2nd retest).
Thus far, they have been pretty close. We have only exceeded the prices around those those dates by a few percentage, while on the other hand, we have declined significantly from the closing price around those dates.
LOL - that is just sad.
and i always worry when i'm on the opposite side of the board as well. A good dose of fear and conflicting opinions is good - helps to keep us from going to crazy from overconfidence
Has the VIX hit rock bottom?
4 Days ago the VIX closed under it's lower BB for the 2nd consecutive day. This has occurred only 33 previous times in the VIX history and in 28 cases the VIX was trading much higher 15 trading days out.
Reviewing this signal:
"FINALLY, one last tweak. We just had the Nasdaq/Nyse ratio closed above 1.75 for two consecutive days. there were 31 such instances in the past, 28 resulting in a lower close 30 days later (or 90% of the time), with an average loss of -13.67% vs 7.06% for the 3 positive finishes."
This is still in play. It occurred first on June 5th (near the most recent highs) and still has 12 more trading days to hit the 30 day mark. Currently the market is -1.78% from when it was triggered.
It also occurred again on 6/24, implying more downside 30 days later from that date.
i bring this up once more because it is close to firing yet again! yesterday the ratio was 1.74, today it is 1.84, tomrrow ...?
LOTS OF SPECULATION here...
all though we did close above 927.09, i decided to give this play another day given that it is close to flat at the moment and since the vix closed under its bb again.
true. i will be keeping a tight stop and if we should close above S&P 927.09, i will close the position out for a loss.
right now however, even though the charts are starting to look bullish again, i think the favorable bet is on a reversion to mean of the VIX, which would imply a decline in S&P.
with vix trading more than 10pct away from its 10ma for the 3rd cosecutive day and currently below its lower bb for also 3days, i opened a short via SDS a few moments ago.
I agree, but as they say - the market can remain irrational longer than most banks can remain solvent- i mean longer than you or i can remain solvent.
Where are the moon-huggers? save the moon! lol.
VIX at new low and trading under it's lower band
based on the recent pattern, we should be due for another solid down day today or tomorrow, i think
Following is a chart showing the Nasdaq/Nyse volume ratio along with a 5MAto smooth the ratio. (It is a bit difficult to see the moving average on this chart)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATV:$NYTV&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p81468479398
This ratio is a good guage of measuring the amount of 'dumb money' at work (the assumption here is that speculators dabble in the nasdaq more than the nyse and near tops, they go into a buying frenzy and as a consequence are responsible for the majority of market volume).
I have been experimenting with this recently and have been finding some interesting results. Using an MA(3), shorting when the ratio crosses 1.7 and covering when it corssed back under 1.50, i get the following results:
17 Trades, 15 profitable (88.24%). As far as a trading system, this is a bit misleading in that you would NOT have traded for long periods of time, as the bulk of the trades were between 1999 -2001 and 2007-2009.
Currently this system is short as of 6/3 and is sporting a paper profit of 3.31%. With the MA(3) currently at 1.80, presumably this trade will be open for a week or more and insinuates either a continued retrace in the S&P or limited upside.
When short the QQQQs a bit earlier. Speculators are the one keeping this market up - just way too much speculation going on here. nasdaq volume appears to have really outpaced nyse today, to the tune of 2 to 1 i think.
If this isn't smart money selling to dumb money - don't know what is. Ofcourse this type of 'dumb money' can remain stubborn for long periods of time.
I have been looking at the Mac notebooks as well - really like them. Amazing machines. My friend was demo'ing to me an piece of sofware that he was running on the Mac(i forget what it was called), but it ran windows software faster than windows. I think it was some sort of VMware software.
he also demo'd how this thing (the mac notebook) can automatically detect networks and connect, which was not possible with my PC notebook. These were LOCKED DOWN networks. I say this because i couldn not connecct to the network with Windows based laptop (it detected the wireless network, but i recieved a security/permission denied when attempting to connect - yet the Mac, it went straight through and latched on to the network)
I asked him if that is not a security concern - he responded 'probably'. lol
hmmm, perfect timing. i'm in the market for a new laptop.
Lol. yes.
I took profits and covered my shorts couple days ago despite the technical damage showing on a number of the majors. A couple of reasons i decided to do this. One was the Golden Cross. That was not really the major factor however since it is more of longer term signal.
The second reason - What i noticed was it seemed MANY became negative on the markets rather quickly, including me. With only about a 5% retrace or so, i gut was that such a small retrace did not warrant the spike in fear and that with so many expecting a down turn, the market was likely to do the opposite. It was purely a gut play and it seemed to have worked out.
Lastly, we talked about the upcoming Gann and Bradley dates - but as of last week, it looked like the market might have confirmed a top and was attempting to begin a down trend. Ahead of the GANN or Bradley date, that would actually imply the turn would be UP, not DOWN as we were expecting.
So i exited.
Now,
With what looks like a solid day so far ahead of the FOMC,and with the S&P now trading back above major resistance/support (200 and 50MA), i think many bulls are going to take the bait.
...and we may just have set our bull trap. If we can get a bit of a follow through on this going into the bradley and gann dates, it would bring the universe back into alignment for me and i will be moving back to a short bias.
thanks Eric - insightful as usual.
Should we fight the FED? so many seem to be expecting a breakdown here - it has me uneasy.
ROFL! true too.
Lol. snake oil salesman is a profession almost as old as that found in brothels.
As of this moment, we have the Golden Cross in play, barely.
For now i have taken profits on my shorts from last week. I suspect if we close with this Golden Cross, some may act on it tomorrow.
I can relate to him in the sense that he ignores fundamentals. I'd be interested in learning more about the timing model he uses. Sounds like it might be related to Hurst's cycle work...
Indices breaking down...
I see the S&P 500 is trading below it's 200 MA once more. When we look at the Banks, Financials and Semis, they have broken below their 50MA for the first time in months. And finally we have the DOW turning back hard at it's 200MA resistance.
These are technically damaging occurrences if we close like this. The saving grace right now seems to be low volume - but if i am not mistaken, low volume during market turns are not necessarily bearish.
There is something the bulls have to look forward to however...
Unless we end up having a huge sell off today, we still are inching closer to the Golden Cross on the S&P500. I ran a quick study of this. in about 80% of the cases, the market is trading higher 30 days later after such an occurrence. It hasn't happened yet, but if it does, it certainly would be something i would consider in how heavily i short.
thanks much.
Where did you read this?