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Very low volume today, so there will be no surprises if the PPS doesn't hold up here, but a nice close nonetheless and a perfect example of just how thin she is without Asher selling. What we need now is an event(s) that generates a lot of (sustained) buying pressure.
I think what I find most interesting about this board is that in some ways it's very similar to things like...religion, diet/nutrition, politics, etc.
There are different thoughts/beliefs/predictions on very different extremes, and I find it quite interesting to try to understand how and why people arrive at different conclusions.
I know there's those that believe major financing will come, and soon, and those that don't believe Eddie will ever secure it. I'm in the former camp obviously, but what I'm most curious about right now, is after financing is received and acquisitions occur (yes, I'm making that assumption), what happens to the PPS. That's what I'm most curious to watch.
If nothing else, this will be a great learning experience for me to look back on when it's all said and done and see who was on and who was off with their analysis. I'll definitely be a smarter, wiser, more experienced investor.
Ditto. I've also talked to Eddie enough times to have made my decision(s), and adjust my plan as we've gone along. I don't care if anybody else comes to the same conclusion as me, and I'm not trying to convince anyone to buy here. SMKY is not going to fail or succeed based on the investment choices of a dozen or so iHub members. So I readily recognize that nothing is a sure thing until it's done. And so I too wait, and yes, hopefully we will meet at the finish line.
Who knows. There are a bunch of possibilities, and I think they're probably all speculation at this point, unless someone has asked Eddie for clarification, but I'm not sure how much value there really is in knowing why they changed. Even if it's for positive reasons, the fact remains that we're still waiting in limbo, and until real material events happen, that's just how it's going to be.
Maybe Robin is right and the new folks are cheaper.
Maybe Robin is also right that the old crew felt that SMKY could not continue as a going concern and that caused the SMKY team to change.
Maybe one of the acquisition targets had a preference/requirement to use the new folks.
Maybe the old firm wasn't set up to handle the complexities that Eddie thinks SMKY will bring to the table in the near future with expansion or that the new firm is better equipped.
etc, etc, etc
I guess for me it's interesting to wonder about, but it doesn't do much for me other than indicate that, due to the fact that making a decision to change accounting/auditing firms requires time, DD, and other resources, and so if we can assume that the decision to change is somewhat rational and not completely random, then it indicates to me that there is something important driving that decision. Personally I tend to think it's a positive something stemming from SMKY going from a non-operating start-up to having massive expansion and acquisitions in the near future.
Who knows. We'll find out when we find out. I do think that we'll see news of financing this summer, and that does excite me. However, nothing is done until it's done. So we continue to wait. I'll continue to take risk and average up here as I add to my position, b/c I think the potential reward outweighs the downside risk from these levels. But, I thought that at .20, and .10, and .05, and .04. So far I've been wrong, but as the final buzzer hasn't sounded the end of the game, I still remain convinced that shares I bought at those levels will be profitable, and although sooner is usually better than later, I don't mind waiting longer. So, we'll see.
Good, maybe we'll see some big movement today. If we get some buying pressure and there is indeed a large short component, a bit of a squeeze here would be a thing of beauty!
Sorry for my ignorance, can you provide any further clarity was designation was just withdrawn? I do like to see that there is movement in the company, things are changing...it's not stagnant, but I have no idea what this means or even remotely implies.
TIA
Looks like those of us that had stated intentions to add if/when Asher converted took full advantage today. Once they started filling on the bid shares got soaked up pretty fast. I never thought last summer that I'd have the chance to add so much to my position at these levels.
You're right though, financing needs to come, and with it a series of PRs as Eddie goes forward. I really do think sometime in July we will see a PR, hopefully around the middle of the month.
I understand your frustration. You'd think from some of the early June posts that there was going to be a steady volume run into the end of June and "even past the 4th of July." This thing is pretty dead. Still holding as these all tend to run eventually, but I hear ya...waiting with money tied up in an illiquid stock is no fun.
What space are you referring to? SMKY doesn't own any equipment or materials within the structure where there was a fire. Maybe this is semantics, but while I understand how it is of importance, I agree with DL and others that it would not have been appropriate to issue a PR about it.
If I owned a business and I leased office space out of a large building that I was planning on acquiring in the future, and there was a fire in another tenant's area that was fully insured, did not affect my current business, was not my responsibility to respond to or deal with insurance on, etc...it wouldn't be appropriate for me to spend time/resources spreading the news in the name of disclosure. The fact that Eddie immediately responded (and for many, quelled) to shareholders' concerns is more than enough disclosure for me.
I understand everybody has different levels of what they think is important information, and that's just the facts of life. People will differ on what they think is important enough to emphasize or commit resources to. When there are differing opinions on the matter, and the person who has the ability to make a decision on how to respond to the event (in this case Eddie) makes a decision that is disagreed with by others, I try to look at what I think the intent was behind the decision.
I don't think anyone (at least not me) is trying to dismiss the fire as completely irrelevant. However, based on the timeliness of Eddie's response and the details provided, and some reasonable conclusions about the negligible impact to current/future ops, I feel like it was not a big deal requiring more attention than it was given, and I definitely did not feel like Eddie was not disclosing information by not issuing a PR. I mean, maybe some folks think that Eddie had an attitude of "Let's not issue a PR and hope the shareholders don't find out." I think that's a bit silly myself.
I guess bottom line is: we know the fire happened, we know nothing owned by SMKY was damaged, we know everything was insured, we know Mary Anne's operations were not impacted, we know it doesn't impact future operations/acquisitions for SMKY, and we know Eddie didn't, and isn't going to issue a PR about it. That's why it's no longer important to me.
But, I guess until we get news of financing, there's not much else to talk about on this board really...
I think as soon as there is a signed LOI that Eddie will indeed release a PR.
Yes, he has been very hopeful several times in the past that financing was imminent. I don't remember him "promising" financing within a set time frame, and think that is a misrepresentation of his statements, but perhaps you can show where he made a guarantee/promise that was not kept.
As far as the fire...SMKY does not own Mary Anne's specialty foods, and although they do have equipment and lease space there, it was not affected by the fire. So it appears to me that:
a) none of Smoky Market's property was affected
b) Mary Anne's current nor future operations were affected
So, as Gunderstone said, I don't see the need for a PR from Eddie, and quite frankly, if he spent money issuing a PR on that fire, I would be concerned that he was maybe focusing time/money in the wrong direction.
Of course, we're all free to determine our own concerns, so I'm not saying you shouldn't be concerned...
To touch on financing one last time - I think that there's a very good chance we'll see a PR about an LOI sometime around/by mid-July.
I love this board just for the "keep me on my toes" entertainment value. It's better than watching Days of Our Lives!!
That's exactly what I was drawn too also, Canada and expansion:
Nothing happens for no reason. Looks to me to be a clear indication of change, BIG change.
Of course, for those of us that know what's coming, it's a perfectly logical confirmation of what we know. I'm sure there will be differing opinions shared on this board.
Time will tell.
Anybody able to post l2 here?
he didn't answer, but got a reply...supposed to talk to him tomorrow. i'll post a summary of our convo.
Anybody have a number for BW? I know it was posted on here somewhere but can't find it. Been holding this thing for long enough now with unfulfilled promises...I usually try to not hassle CEOs when there are folks on the board that seem legitimate and are in contact with him, but at some point I wanna hear it from the horse's mouth so to speak.
TIA
The whole float, air shares, naked short issue has been beat to death at least a dozen times, and quite frankly, I don't know what I really think. On the one hand, I have no reason to doubt folks on this board that say they have firsthand knowledge of people holding combined positions in multiples of the float. And I have no doubt that the T/A may have verbally confirmed that the float hasn't changed. Yada yada yada. But who knows.
All of that aside, I do have a question - and this is out of total hypothetical curiosity. Let's just say, let's pretend, let's hypothesize, that whatever the float is, there are more shares held by shareholders in their accounts than the float...
Is there any single event that would cause all of those shares to be accounted for? And if that were to happen...all shares in shareholders accounts were tallied up, and it was clear that more shares were owned than the float, clearly there would be a problem. But my question is WHO is responsible for that? Is there any way to prove which MM's were shorting and never covered, or which were selling naked shorts?
I mean, it's nice to fantasize about a huge short squeeze caused by millions of naked short shares or "air" shares, but I'm just asking, even if they're really out there...what would cause them to be brought to light and then who would have to cover?
I'd take your bet, except that nothing is on the table, and the two conditions of the gamble are pretty much unrelated so it's a moot point.
I'm 99.9% certain that initial financing from the PS offering will be received prior to the conversion date for the next Asher note.
I'm also 99.9% certain that the Asher note is going to convert, as it's already been explained by Eddie and discussed on this board that the decision to let the Asher note convert is the best choice for the long-term success/value of SMKY.
WNRC fins posted.
Financials out and look good from my first glance! On my phone or I would post more. The silence is broken, start the next timer
pretty sure the current oven is located in the processor. that's if my memory serves me correctly...not going to go back and verify as I'm not sure if you're even really genuinely asking, but if I remember correctly, SMKY leased a space inside the processing plant where the oven and packing took place. i think anyway.
Added more here today.
You have a point. As I don't know how much of a factor current PPS is in financing negotiations, I'll concede it very well play a larger part than I stated in my previous post.
I guess my real point last is that people talk about these Asher notes like they're "death spiral convertibles" that are just totally wrecking the company and diluting shareholder value down to nothing and that, in my opinion, is like saying your neighbor burning trash in his backyard is poisoning you to death and causing global climate bc age. It's just a bit exaggerated in my mind and strikes me as overly dramatic.
Fortunately, the current (or short term) share price isn't a major factor in much of anything right now, as it doesn't impact the current profitable revenues being generated by the 2 or 3 companies on the table for acquisition. So for me, what the poison does to the share price this time is almost irrelevant.
But, that's fine, let's see what it does. Selfishly, I don't think it will push us down to .01 or below. If it does, I have funds ready to greatly increase my position here, as I and others have already stated.
Nice news out this morning! Granted it will execute down the road a bit, but good potential revenues.
Here's some food for thought, and that's all it is, just food for thought. There's been a lot of chatter about Eddie's explanation/definition of dilution and the whole Asher situation(s).
I'm going to tell a quick story here, b/c I think it's pertinent, and a useful illustration. Back when I was a West Point cadet, the new brigade surgeon gave the entire corps of cadets our annual health/wellness speech. He told us his philosophy was very simple: "Everything's a poison and nothing's a poison." He then spent 45 minutes expounding on that.
Everything can be poisonous, to include those things that are necessary for human life. An overdose of basically every substance will prove fatal:
water - hyponatremia resulting in death
salt/sodium - death
oxygen - oxygen poisoning/toxicity results in tissue damage and death
etc.
etc.
etc.
conversely, almost all "poisons" can be tolerated in small doses depending on the toxicity level of the substance. I won't bore you with listing them out, but even the most potent "poisons" can be diluted to a degree that the human body can tolerate and metabolize them. Granted, even with minute doses there may very well be damage, but it can be temporary and often the body will heal to the previous level of health.
What's the point of all that? Like I said, food for thought, but this is why I shared. I see a lot of posts about toxic this and toxic that and let's talk about what is what and how we define it. Everyone will make up their own mind, but when I think about it, I try to understand that something that is toxic, when swallowed in extremely small doses, might leave a bad taste in my mouth, but really isn't going to kill me. So sometimes I ask myself...if I was out of air underwater, would I inhale from a tank of pure oxygen? Yep. If I was starving to death, would I eat some moldy, rotten bread? Yep.
And the rest, about whether or not something that is potentially toxic can be beneficial, well, the last time I posted on here I laid out my reasons for why I can see that the pain of very limited dilution and a temporary downward pressure on the PPS will ultimately be beneficial to the stock in terms of future liquidity. So I won't repeat that post.
I feel we're very close here. Goodnight.
Most of the posts on here today haven't even had the ticker, so must be people posting other places about the news to get a big font on the buzz cloud.
I did a double take when I logged in today and saw 17 unread messages, on a Sunday! I knew something was up with AIMH when I saw that!
Great news here...now I guess we really shall see if there is indeed a worthwhile buyer lined up to do an R/M into this shell. This put a little excitement in me bones here.
thanks. i guess what i meant by simplistic is that there are many, many other factors in play, and i do have an underlying assumption (which i admit may not be realized) that Eddie will be successful not just in securing financing, but also in executing plans to develop market penetration of product and investor awareness, etc.
regardless, it's going to be an interesting summer for sure.
You're waiting to be filled? On the bid?
You may be right - I had a slightly different take on Eddie's comments. I didn't take his comment about the second note Asher holds to indicate he thinks he'll have the money by then (although he may think that, and he may have the money by then). I took it to mean that his focus on getting financing isn't a race to beat the conversion of the second note, which was kind of the general feeling I get from posts on the board. His statement was more to the effect that he's fine if they convert, and I think even if financing comes in before the note can be converted, there may be a chance that financing money won't be used to pay off the note prior to conversion.
Here's my take on why, based on what Eddie has said several times. To watch the PPS get driven down from around .10 to .02, or a drop of 80%, was tough...but, in the big scheme of things, what did Asher add, a couple million shares?
1. Eddie has already said liquidity is a potential negative issue in the future, so long term, having those extra shares in the O/S is a good thing.
2. Paying off debt with more financed money is like doing a balance transfer on a credit card, or doing a consolidation loan. It might cut your short term monthly payments (or avoid conversion of the note), but it's not necessarily the best use of funds.
Let's say the second note converts and has the same impact as the first, and the PPS drops to .01 (assuming we're at the same current PPS a few weeks from now when it converts). Long term, what is .04? How quickly can the PPS recover? Who else (besides me, PianoMan, and GS) will be looking to add significantly if there's a price drop that severe?
3. If the use of that money is put towards sales, marketing, PR, etc and that results in increased revenue streams that in the next 2-3 years justify a rise in PPS of .04-.05, then I'd rather the money be used for that instead of paying off Asher just to avoid what is ultimately very minor dilution. AND, if you're really worried about dilution, using those funds to increase overall value of the company will actually result in LESS dilution when the PS are converted. Remember, the type of financing terms Eddie is holding out for converts that debt based on future stock price.
4. Even if the PPS drops temporarily in the near-term with a conversion of the Asher note, the fundamental value of the company as a result of acquisitions following financing will not change, and with such minor dilution, the eventual fair valuation of the stock based on a profitable company generating millions of dollars of revenue will be inconsequentially less than if the note is not converted.
Initially when Eddie said he was fine if they converted, it threw me for a loop and my gut reaction was "how could he be so flippant about something that might tank the PPS another 80%?" However, the more I've thought about it, and tried to wrap my head around the perspective that Eddie has looking at the big picture, this is the conclusion I've come to.
Of course, this is all my rather simplistic analysis. I may be way off, but it makes me feel good about my current position, and funds I have set aside if there is a second conversion and the price falls again - I will be adding.
Yep, you're right. From wikipedia:
I'm sure you stated this earlier, but when did you have this most recent conversation with Dan?
Yes, that's my hope earlier, as I posted this morning. Glad to see I'm not the only one that sees this scenario as a viable option, if indeed the timing coincides in a way that makes it possible.
I agree. And if the second Asher note falls somewhere in there it may only stall the run instead of crashing the PPS. Or maybe it will drive it way down again. I realize that's a bit of wishful thinking rather than a prediction but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Good morning everyone. Happy Friday.
During the last chat Eddie said he was leaving the next morning at 0300 to do some business-related travel. Maybe he'll have something material by early next week that he can share with us, hopefully in the form of a PR.
It's at least something to hope for over the weekend.
In the .30s or .40s...would have to look at the chart. It was where the ask was super thin and for a moment it jumped to .89 and someone tapped it just for fun I guess. Last summer it topped out in the high 40s